Newcomb's Problem

[classical_hero]

Well, given that you've seen 100 people do it beforehand, that would be a valid enough observation to not call it "faith".

That is in the present. How do you know that he will be correct when you open it? It could be a trap for you so that you open the box and you get nothing. We are still relying on the past to make a future judgement and as sch you are still putting your trust in the Alien to be correct. That is faith in anyone's books. YOu are assuming that I was talking about blind fiath, but faith is just simply trusting the word of the Alien to be true, when it could be wrong. It still takes faith since you still can get nothing for that box. You are assuming that he is 100% corrrect all the time, but this a an assumption based on past events. IF you do trust in what he says, then you are simply acting of that faith and it is only after you have acted have you found out that your faith was correct or not. So many times we take faith for granted because we have seen things happen and assume that it happen. How do you know that you are not the one to be the incorrect person?

 

[Erik Mesoy]

A clarification from the thread starter. Does Omega predict how much money there will be there before you speak to him or he decides how much money are in the boxes after you speak ?

Omega has put the money in the box(es) beforehand based on his prediction of what you'll decide, and you don't really have a chance to speak to him. By the time you get to act, he's flown away leaving a pair of boxes and an explanation of the game.

 

[scy12]

Omega has put the money in the box(es) beforehand based on his prediction of what you'll decide, and you don't really have a chance to speak to him. By the time you get to act, he's flown away leaving a pair of boxes and an explanation of the game.

You avoided the question because i used the word speak ?

Does Omega (even if he left) predict how much money there will be there before you choose the boxes or he decides how much money are in the boxes after you choose the boxes ?

Or do you say that when Omega leaves at that point he is not affecting the game in any way ?

 

[Perfection]

We are still relying on the past to make a future judgement and as sch you are still putting your trust in the alien to be correct. That is faith in anyone's books.

No it's induction. The alien was right in a number of cases, so it's probably right now.

YOu are assuming that I was talking about blind fiath, but faith is just simply trusting the word of the Alien to be true, when it could be wrong. It still takes faith since you still can get nothing for that box. You are assuming that he is 100% corrrect all the time, but this a an assumption based on past events. IF you do trust in what he says, then you are simply acting of that faith and it is only after you have acted have you found out that your faith was correct or not. So many times we take faith for granted because we have seen things happen and assume that it happen. How do you know that you are not the one to be the incorrect person?

Making assumptions based on the continuation of clear patterns isn't faith. Yes, it could be wrong, we agree that when presented with the situation we can't be 100% sure what is going on, but that doesn't make some decision based on faith because then all decisions would be based on faith, because every decision we make has assumptions!

I mean consider taking both boxes, is it faith to believe that Omega probably didn't put anthrax in the second box and hid it with a hologram? The assumption that he didn't is an assumption you have to make! It seems by argument that there's just as much faith in taking both boxes as there is in taking one!

 

[Samson]

Nope, it doesn't work like that. You can't choose the outcome of a collapsed wavefunction and expect some entangled particles to follow suit. Such a thing would allow FTL (faster-than-light) information transfer which is not allowed in practically every formulation of QM. (It also goes against the math, but the math is totally annoying and half forgotten by Perfs).

I would say I see, but I do not really. It is a good job I do not need to understand QM. I was thinking about the solution to the grand anthropic principle (?) I was reading about in new scientist the other day, where all the possible universes were reprasented in the quantum wave form, including those in which intelegent life is imposible. Then when intelegent life emerged it made an observation, and the wave form colapsed into on in which intelegent life could and did exist. I though that was a similar situation to this, so I thought my explanation was plausable. I suspect I have missunderstood something (or possibly everything).

In any case this is not the problem as stated, the problem is based on a prediction (a very good one, yes, but still a prediction), not an orchestrated certainty.

I did not read "Omega has put a million dollars in box B iff Omega has predicted that you will take only box B" as nessaseraly ruling out some sort of quantum state, but I guess it would require a bit of a stretch.

 

[Defiant47]

The people that say they'll take both boxes will likely find $0 in the second box, because their decision will most likely be predicted by Omega, given its high degree of accuracy.

I, deciding right now that I'm going to take the second box only, will likely find $1m in it given the fact that Omega's predictions are very accurate.

What you decide to take decides more or less what is going to be in the boxes, since Omega predicts very well.

 

[Erik Mesoy]

You avoided the question because i used the word speak ?

No, I thought you were trying to do something that would let you sneak to a third or mixed option, which a lot of people try.

Does Omega (even if he left) predict how much money there will be there before you choose the boxes or he decides how much money are in the boxes after you choose the boxes ?

Or do you say that when Omega leaves at that point he is not affecting the game in any way ?

Omega has put the money in the boxes already. Once Omega leaves, he is not watching you any more and he is not going to affect the game. Omega does not "predict how much money there will be", he predicts what you're going to choose and then puts either a million dollars or nothing in box B. This is done before he puts the boxes in front of you. (Cf. the original specification: "Omega has put...")

 

[scy12]

No, I thought you were trying to do something that would let you sneak to a third or mixed option, which a lot of people try.


Omega has put the money in the boxes already. Once Omega leaves, he is not watching you any more and he is not going to affect the game. Omega does not "predict how much money there will be", he predicts what you're going to choose and then puts either a million dollars or nothing in box B. This is done before he puts the boxes in front of you. (Cf. the original specification: "Omega has put...")

I am studying the concept of if this alien is using Time travel.

When Omega leaves he is not watching me anymore and does not affect the game in any way is the key phrase.

This is done before he puts the boxes in front of you

Which means that Omega could have previously done this scenario and tested it and then time traveled in the past. Then he had ready the boxes before i would decide because he knew it.

However you then say that .

When Omega leaves he is not watching me anymore and does not affect the game

Meaning that when Omega leaves the first time he will not interfere at all in the future and so the game will only be played once.

This means that Omega is not using time travel to predict my decision.

 

[Gogf]

Actually, I just remembered something I heard from a lecture on an entirely different subject.

If you quantify the value of the boxes by the probability they have money, you get:

Box A: 100% chance of having $1,000
Box B: 50% chance of having $1,000,000

So, the values of those boxes are:

Box A: $1,000
Box B: $500,000

So using those values, it's obvious that you should take Box B.

This system seems nonsensical to me when you only have once shot. A 50-50 shot at $1m may be "worth" $500,000 in some abstract way, but that doesn't mean I would give up my guaranteed $499,999 for it.

Anyway, I'm sure there are a lot of other posts in this thread I want to reply to... I'll get to them in a little bit.

 

[Gogf]

There's no reason why he should be right this time too. Problem with induction, etc.

It's not just the "problem with induction." The point is that no matter how well the alien has me figured out, the money is ALREADY either in or not in box b. Whether I choose the box DOES NOT AFFECT what is in it, so it is ALWAYS better to take the extra $1,000.

 

[Gogf]

Here's why I say it's better to be a 1 boxer then a 2 boxer (although I'm sticking with my 1.49999 box solution outline on the first page as being the best).

Two boxers seem to think that their choices are something special that comes out of their perfectly free minds. However, minds are merely complex physical processes, and there's no physical reason why one couldn't anticipate one's reaction with a high degree of success given good enough measurement and analytic tools. So it is possible that this alien could know what you were going to pick before you picked it. After the box is laid yes, it would be optimal given a free choice to pick both, but you don't have a free choice, you have the culmination of your personality, experience, knowledge, biology, whatever determining your choices for you! Your free choice is actually a fiction, brought about in your mind!

The question really isn't what should one choose, but whether one person is a two boxer or a one boxer (or a 1.49999 boxer)?

If you are a one (or 1.4999 boxer) like me you get the money

if you're a two boxer you don't.

I actually agree. If the alien has you figured as a one-boxer, then you get the one money, while a two-boxer won't. However, the question asks which box you should choose. And I think it is unquestionable clear that, given a choice after the money is put in the boxes, you should take both.

 

[Truronian]

It's not just the "problem with induction." The point is that no matter how well the alien has me figured out, the money is ALREADY either in or not in box b. Whether I choose the box DOES NOT AFFECT what is in it, so it is ALWAYS better to take the extra $1,000.

It may well affect it because this superbeing has been shown to have supernatural prediction powers.

 

[Samson]

It's not just the "problem with induction." The point is that no matter how well the alien has me figured out, the money is ALREADY either in or not in box b. Whether I choose the box DOES NOT AFFECT what is in it, so it is ALWAYS better to take the extra $1,000.

I think the flaw in your logic is that B does not nesaceraly follow from A below:

A)the money is ALREADY either in or not in box b
B)Whether I choose the box DOES NOT AFFECT what is in it

If you can show otherwise I would be VERY interested.

 

[kuukkeli]

I promise I'd take only B. That's BEE. You hear that mr. Omega? Just BEE

 

[Kennigit]

I think the flaw in your logic is that B does not nesaceraly follow from A below:

A)the money is ALREADY either in or not in box b
B)Whether I choose the box DOES NOT AFFECT what is in it

If you can show otherwise I would be VERY interested.

I'm afraid I don't understand your post: it seems to directly support Gogf and all of us who have supported the both option. Why would "B" not follow your "A" in any way, shape, or form that you can prove?

 

[Darth_Pugwash]

Box BEEEEEE!

 

[warpus]

Here's why I say it's better to be a 1 boxer then a 2 boxer (although I'm sticking with my 1.49999 box solution outline on the first page as being the best).

Two boxers seem to think that their choices are something special that comes out of their perfectly free minds. However, minds are merely complex physical processes, and there's no physical reason why one couldn't anticipate one's reaction with a high degree of success given good enough measurement and analytic tools. So it is possible that this alien could know what you were going to pick before you picked it. After the box is laid yes, it would be optimal given a free choice to pick both, but you don't have a free choice, you have the culmination of your personality, experience, knowledge, biology, whatever determining your choices for you! Your free choice is actually a fiction, brought about in your mind!

The question really isn't what should one choose, but whether one person is a two boxer or a one boxer (or a 1.49999 boxer)?

If you are a one (or 1.4999 boxer) like me you get the money

if you're a two boxer you don't.

Yeah, but the premise of this thought experiment is that a "two boxer" who picks one box gets the money.

Which is a reason why it's flawed...

 

[Nike Zeus]

Picking both is betting a lot of money on terrible odds that you can bluff the superintelligent aliens (who have a 100% success rate) into thinking you will take only B. Sounds stupid to me.

 

[warpus]

Picking both is betting a lot of money on terrible odds that you can bluff the superintelligent aliens (who have a 100% success rate) into thinking you will take only B. Sounds stupid to me.

And picking box B only is going to magically beam a million dollars into it?

 

[Kennigit]

Picking both is betting a lot of money on terrible odds that you can bluff the superintelligent aliens (who have a 100% success rate) into thinking you will take only B. Sounds stupid to me.

Picking only box B gives up a thousand dollars, regardless of what is in box B. Sounds stupid to me.