Oil to hit $200 a barrel?

[BCampbell]

He also pointed out that oil producing nations aren't having any trouble finding buyers for the oil, despite the increasing prices.

A lot of this has to do with industrialization of many formerly third-world countries, especially China and India.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/07/business/07cnd-energy.html?ex=1352091600&en=62d1adc06b1f0d1b&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

Over the last two years, China and India accounted for about 70 percent of the increase in energy demand

Even more interesting:

High economic growth in China and India could push oil prices to $159 a barrel by 2030, the agency said.

This was from November 2007. Half a year ago. That number sounds absurdly optimistic now.

 

[RedRalph]

that is incredible... to see such a prediction beocme so obsoltete so quickly (in all likelyhood)

 

[downtown]

and the eco-populists in the Congress aren't going to allow anything like coal gasification, because they immediately associate coal with smog in London at the turn of the 20th century.
.

I know of at least two people personally who are working on getting coal gassification running, and several members of congress. I'm all for that, we're the freaking Saudi Arabia of Coal.

 

[emzie]

thats nothing, here in the uk the average price of petrol is £1.10 a litre which is about £5 a gallon

No, it's about £4.10 a gallon. US gallon ~3.78 litres.

Right now, gas is 1.251 / litre or 4.72 / us gallon here. Which, as of today, is roughly $4.85 US / US gallon.

Nearly to 5!

 

[Patroklos]

And JD's numbers are just for tha Arctic reserve. Then there is The Gulf, as well as the Dakotas (not as economically viable).

And while the US lack of refiners doesn't affect the price of crude (beyond speculation), it does affect the price at the pump.

I do find it funny watching oil company CEOs own Congressmen on the current hearings time and time again. Democrats really stupid in this regard.

 

[mrt144]

We wouldn't be in this mess if our pansy-ass government allowed some oil drilling and construction of new refineries. We haven't built one in over 30 years, and the eco-populists in the Congress aren't going to allow anything like coal gasification, because they immediately associate coal with smog in London at the turn of the 20th century.

In short, the government (Democrats and the "Republicans") is on the fast track to bankrupting our nation's economy.

to be fair theres only been one permit application in the last 30 years. I dont fault the refiners though. the marginal revenue for increasing supply just isnt there to justify it and if alternatives are going to spring up then that is further disincentive to sink money into new capacity.

 

[nc-1701]

A lot of this has to do with industrialization of many formerly third-world countries, especially China and India.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/07/business/07cnd-energy.html?ex=1352091600&en=62d1adc06b1f0d1b&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss


Even more interesting:



This was from November 2007. Half a year ago. That number sounds absurdly optimistic now.

Yeah, I'm aware of that. My point was that this really is caused by market forces.
Not

"teh evil price gouging corporations"

Thank you for helping

The fact that it really is scarier though, the fact that some countries like America could increase output is dwarfed by the fact consumption is still growing much faster than we could increase output. Oil will not drop signifigantly in price without a large global depression occuring, or the dollar streignthing massively, or lternative fuels making oil obsolete and worthless. We have alreay hit some version of peak oil, it's not as bad as alarmists say because as the price goes up more deposits become commercially viable, but these deposits are more expensive, so they will not bring the price down much. Only keep it from skyrocketing faster than it is...

 

[JerichoHill]

One effect. what will the others be?

More laughter at folks in Ford Expeditions?

 

[scy12]

Being a member of a country which is 100% depended on A) Oil B) industries related to oil and C) The economical situation of Europeans. I can perfectly say we are screwed.

Inflation is already at 5% but i wonder where it will stop if the oil prices continue to get up.
Oh well. The speculated oil near Cyprus becomes a necessity.

 

[Cheezy the Wiz]

From Guardian



what would be the likely effects of this happening?

I would walk to work and the store.

 

[Aegis]

I have heard that if China continues it's current growth rate in oil consumption, in ten years China alone will need all of the oil the entire world produces.

This does not bode well.

 

[Julian Delphiki]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/china_fuel_subsidies_and_shortages

Summary

Chinese energy firms, which must sell fuel at prices set by the state, are limiting the amount of oil they refine in order to cut their financial losses. However, sources in country report that foreign firms are not subject to the caps and can sell fuel normally, though at prices well above the price cap. This means that China is not having a fuel shortage; it is simply having a shortage of state-priced fuel, and that shortage is clearly a political issue.
Analysis

There has been a spate of gasoline shortages of late in China’s Guangdong province, largely due to the Chinese policy of subsidizing fuel usage. The government sets the price, forcing Chinese energy firms to sell products at below the cost of production. Whenever they can get away with it, those firms minimize the amount of oil they refine for the price-controlled market in order to limit their financial losses. The result is fuel shortages.

Foreign energy firms, however, are allowed to ignore the price cap and sell gasoline normally (albeit at prices well above the state-mandated cap), sources in country say.

Lets see how long they are going to keep up with subsidies..

 

[GenMarshall]

Time to add another policy to my Forgien policies.

Conqure lands with lots of women and oil.

 

[amadeus]

Conqure lands with lots of women and oil.

INVADE THE HIGH SCHOOLS!

 

[emzie]

No, it's about £4.10 a gallon. US gallon ~3.78 litres.

Right now, gas is 1.251 / litre or 4.72 / us gallon here. Which, as of today, is roughly $4.85 US / US gallon.

Nearly to 5!

Just filled up. 1.268 / litre so ~4.79 / us gallon. Which as of today is ~4.86 US / US gallon. Since I pay with an American Visa, that's what I'm paying. Except my exchange rate isn't as good as XE.com's so I'm probably over 5 / gallon atm.

 

[GoodGame]

Maybe this: http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/ (kind of pessimistic stuff).

I suspect that if we all end up migrant farmworkers, the bugs that we can't afford pesticide chemicals to kill will make delicious rations, especially when cooked in a solar-powered field oven. :*)

 

[Narz]

Maybe this: http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/ (kind of pessimistic stuff).

That Matt Savinar, he's quite a character.

Anyway, I don't worry about such silly things. The eggheads will figure out how to fuel our vehicles on moonbeams & rainbows just in time. At least that's what the guy who sold me these magic beans told me.

 

[GoodGame]

In the mean-time, I will be patenting the solar-powered field oven so my offspring will always be able to afford to eat the tastiest pest insects. ;*)

 

[mrt144]

That Matt Savinar, he's quite a character.

Anyway, I don't worry about such silly things. The eggheads will figure out how to fuel our vehicles on moonbeams & rainbows just in time. At least that's what the guy who sold me these magic beans told me.

The good news is liberal pansy doomsdayers like you are weak/unskilled enough and even less shrewd to survive such an event. despite what you may think, you arent going to be the one walking away from economic collapse unscathed.

 

[CIVPhilzilla]

I have the energy solution, mass production of nuclear power plants, use the extra energy to split water molecules and make hydrogen. Bam, clean energy for a couple of thousands of years. The oil can then be used exclusively for plastics.