I'm curious what people here have to say about this (from a thread posted on the Cracked forums. Cursing is allowed there, so I'm not going to link to the thread itself. It's currently on the first page of this board.)
My thinking is that there might be a higher number of people successfully keeping off weight if they didn't universally believe that the right dosage of diet and exercise would solve the problem in the first place. It needs to be treated like alcohol/drug addiction.
David Wong said:And I mean impossible as in, it statistically rounds down to zero. I'm starting this thread because I want someone to show me, with a study, that I'm wrong. Not anecdotal evidence. A study.
Because what I'm finding is when somebody does go from severely obese to thin, it's a freak medical occurrence, like surviving a brain tumor after being told it's inoperable. I can't find any study that says I'm wrong. Everyone who loses the weight gains it back within a few years. Everyone outside of a tiny fraction of a percent.
For instance, this person did the math and found that 2 out of a 1,000 Weight Watchers customers actually keep the weight off permanently.
They wrote that in reaction to this horribly written news story boasting about the success of Weight Watchers, based on a study supplied by Weight Watchers involving only their most successful customers. They realized that once you break through the numbers, you find that their definition of "success" is keeping 5% of your weight off permanently. So, you were 300 lbs? Congratulations, you are now 285, you look exactly the same, and WW considers you a rare success story.
I'm starting to think that this is the great secret of modern society: People who permanently beat obesity are like people who permanently beat cancer.
We all know of somebody who did it, but their stories are amazing and remarkable because they are so rare. It's miraculously curing an incurable condition.
This article really drives it home:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/01/magazine/tara-parker-pope-fat-trap.html?_r=2&pagewanted=all
For a formerly fat person, exercise has far less benefit, and food stores itself as fat at a much higher rate, than somebody of the same weight who has never been fat. It's a challenge that is effectively impossible to overcome.
Every study, even those trying to find the opposite, find the same thing. There is even an organization dedicated to tracking down those miracle stories - the kind of people who lost 70 pounds and kept it off for five years or more - and they've found several thousand... in a country with 100 million obese people.
All of them did it by becoming fanatics, and basically making weight loss their job. They can keep it off in the same way that some people can build an Eiffel Tower out of toothpicks. They become obsessive and devote all of their spare time and energy to the project.
For everyone else, it's physically impossible. The body has too many defense mechanisms. Everything in your evolution is fighting against you -- once you reach a certain weight level, it will not let you drop below it for long. Again, yes, you can permanently lose 15 pounds. If you were only 15 pounds overweight, you weren't fat. I'm talking going from fat to thin -- the kind of "before and after" weight loss the diet drugs promise in the ads, from 250 to 160, that kind of loss.
It basically doesn't happen. It is effectively impossible.
David Wong said:Here is the most comprehensive meta-analysis, studying a whole bunch of other studies on various weight loss programs over several years:
http://www.ajcn.org/content/74/5/579.full
Here's the depressing graph:
http://www.ajcn.org/content/74/5/579/F1.expansion.html
I've been through the charts, and they boast the success stories of people who started at 240 lbs, lost 50, and only regained 35 pounds of it to settle in at a svelte 225.
Nowhere in the study can I find where they even studied people who had the 90 or 100 pound "fat to thin" weight loss. I can't find a study anywhere on those people, outside of follow-up studies on surgical options.
EDIT: it looks like those studies combined studied 3,500 people who had participated in structured weight loss programs and saw some success. The average person lost 3% of their weight. So if you were 220 coming in, you were 213 after. Yay!
My thinking is that there might be a higher number of people successfully keeping off weight if they didn't universally believe that the right dosage of diet and exercise would solve the problem in the first place. It needs to be treated like alcohol/drug addiction.