Polling Posters on Putin's Perspicacity

[SS-18 ICBM]

That's not what the term "soft power" denotes.

 

[Cutlass]

I'd imagine American politicians + supporters are even more out of touch in their War on Terror anyway... What Putin's doing is pretty rational but also quite selfish. But at the same time, what world leader has not been incredibly self-serving these days?

I don't think that what he is doing is rational. The thing is, Putin wants Russia to still be a superpower and empire. And it no longer is these things. But he is not willing to accept that Russia no longer is these things. Russia is a very large and powerful nation. But it is a local power, not a global one. It isn't even really a regional power very much. There's no nation which was not once part of the USSR that Russia is really a threat to.

Russia is, however, a petro state. Now this means something. It means that Russia's economic power exceeds its military power. But it also means that Russia's wealth and position in the world are dependent on Russia's continued oil and gas exports. So they use their exports to bully, but in the long run they cannot cut off those exports.

Putin is also irrational in that he still has a Soviet foreign policy mindset. That is, he think of the safety of Russia as having to be some absolute thing. But absolute security for Russia means absolute insecurity of all of Russia's neighbors. So what Putin is doing is actually destabilizing to Russia's security. Putin sees NATO as a threat to Russia. And that is not rational. The NATO nations would never agree to a war on Russia that Russia didn't start.

 

[Formaldehyde]

The NATO nations would never agree to a war on Russia that Russia didn't start.

You mean like asserting that Russia "invaded" Ukraine, instead of coming to the aid of the autonomous Crimean government after being specifically asked to do so by its leaders?

I don't think he has a "Soviet power mindset" at all, but that is certainly how the western media likes to portray it. After all, the "Soviet power mindset" was mostly hyperbole in the first place.

 

[Borachio]

I don't think Putin's mental. I don't think that he's making decisions in a vacuum either. I get the impression the Kremlin is behind, or certainly supports, this de facto annexation of the Crimea.

And, in the long run, I think they'll get away with it. Apart from acting all outraged, what will anyone do about it?

In a year or two (or maybe less), this will have faded out of public consciousness.

I could be wrong.

 

[Gucumatz]

Seems perfectly rational the steps hes taken for what I assume/estimate are his goals. Obviously by western standards, might not exactly appear rational [or moral] - but I don't think anyone honestly can say that Putin hasn't played his cards well so far and will at least get Crimea or drive Ukraine into even further chaos [which would prevent it from moving further to the EU]. All Putin has to do is wait and win - not much of a losing scenario present here.

 

[Kyriakos]

He wouldn't be Putin if he would put out.

 

[Borachio]

Ew. That conjures up a host of unpleasant images.

(It's clever though. In a way. Sort of.)

 

[Kyriakos]

Sorry :\

 

[Borachio]

No worries.

The cesspit, that is my mind, is well used to all sorts of detritus.

 

[classical_hero]

You mean like asserting that Russia "invaded" Ukraine, instead of coming to the aid of the autonomous Crimean government after being specifically asked to do so by its leaders?

I don't think he has a "Soviet power mindset" at all, but that is certainly how the western media likes to portray it. After all, the "Soviet power mindset" was mostly hyperbole in the first place.

What if the people are against it? Simply put, there are so many better ways this could have been handled by Putin and if his ultimate goal was to bring Ukraine closer to Russia, then he has done the exact opposite. I think he has made a big mistake in the long run.

 

[Formaldehyde]

Then they will vote against it. Won't they?

 

[danjuno]

Funny, I could've sworn Putin was hosting an ousted Ukrainian president who demanded the re-installation of his pro-Russian government. But no, this is apparently just about Crimea and absolutely, positively nothing else!

 

[Yeekim]

instead of coming to the aid of the autonomous Crimean government after being specifically asked to do so by its leaders?

How would you comment on the fact that the Russian government still denies it has sent any military into Crimea?

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on Wednesday denied that Russian forces are currently deployed in Ukraine's Crimea region and said that video footage showing Russian license plates on the military vehicles was "complete nonsense."

Shoigu stuck to the Russian authorities' official line, saying that troops occupying Crimea were not Russian and describing footage that suggests otherwise as a "provocation," Interfax reported.

A video from the Ukrainian outlet UkrStream.Tv published Tuesday featured an unidentified soldier in the Crimean town of Kerch saying he is Russian. President Vladimir Putin got approval from the Federation Council on Saturday to send Russian forces into Ukraine, but said Tuesday at a news conference that he had not done so and that the armed men in Crimea, which has a large ethnic Russian population, were local pro-Russian self-defense groups.

Shoigu responded to journalists' questions Wednesday by saying that he did not know how the unidentified forces came to possess the Lynx and Tiger armored cars that are used by the Russian military.

His comments came the same day that Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia could not order the so-called self-defense forces back to base because they were not Russian and added that his country's Navy personnel in Ukraine were at their normal positions.

Lavrov spoke at a joint press conference in Madrid with Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo ahead of a planned meeting in Paris with European and U.S. diplomats who have accused Russia of invading Crimea and have threatened to impose economic sanctions.

Russian officials have criticized the West's acceptance of the Ukrainian government in Kiev, which took power after ousted President Viktor Yanukovych fled the capital in the face of violence between anti-government protesters and police.

Putin said Tuesday that the acting Ukrainian government and president were illegitimate and Lavrov said Wednesday that "If we indulge those who are trying to rule our great, kind historic neighbor, we must understand that a bad example is infectious."

Lavrov said that the Crimean authorities, who recently refused to enter talks with authorities in Kiev, should be allowed to decided whether to let international monitors into the region.

U.S. President Barack Obama said Monday that Putin must allow international monitors to mediate a deal in Ukraine acceptable to all Ukrainian people, Reuters reported. German Chancellor Angela Merkel had suggested setting up a "fact-finding mission" to facilitate political dialogue, a proposal Putin supposedly agreed to.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/...y-that-crimean-forces-are-russian/495675.html

 

[Formaldehyde]

It is likely due to the usual sensationalist reporting by many media outlets in this matter, given which media outlets decided to pursue this particular story. You do realize that the Moscow Times has nothing whatsoever to do with the Russian government? It even even appears to be a free tabloid with an extremely limited circulation.

But even if Russia is now playing some sort of cockamamie game of "hide the Russian soldiers", instead of responding to what the current status is unlike what it supposedly was a few days ago, it hardly makes Putin crazy. It just means they are disingenuous and hypocritical like other governments, including your own.

 

[Yeekim]

I would ascribe it to the usual sensationalist reporting by many media outlets in this matter.

You do realize that the Moscow Times has nothing whatsoever to do with the Russian government? It even even appears to be a free tabloid with an extremely limited circulation.

So how about words of Mr Putin from official website of President of Russia, where he likewise denies Russian involvement? From a transcript of 04.03 press conference:

VLADIMIR PUTIN: /.../
Regarding the deployment of troops, the use of armed forces. So far, there is no need for it, but the possibility remains. I would like to say here that the military exercises we recently held had nothing to do with the events in Ukraine. This was pre-planned, but we did not disclose these plans, naturally, because this was a snap inspection of the forces’ combat readiness. We planned this a long time ago, the Defence Minister reported to me and I had the order ready to begin the exercise. As you may know, the exercises are over; I gave the order for the troops to return to their regular dislocations yesterday.

What can serve as a reason to use the Armed Forces? Such a measure would certainly be the very last resort.
/.../
People came, surrounded units of the armed forces and talked to them, convincing them to follow the demands and the will of the people living in that area. There was not a single armed conflict, not a single gunshot.

Thus the tension in Crimea that was linked to the possibility of using our Armed Forces simply died down and there was no need to use them.
/.../
I have personally always been an advocate of acting in compliance with international law. I would like to stress yet again that if we do make the decision, if I do decide to use the Armed Forces, this will be a legitimate decision in full compliance with both general norms of international law, since we have the appeal of the legitimate President, and with our commitments, which in this case coincide with our interests to protect the people with whom we have close historical, cultural and economic ties. Protecting these people is in our national interests. This is a humanitarian mission. We do not intend to subjugate anyone or to dictate to anyone. However, we cannot remain indifferent if we see that they are being persecuted, destroyed and humiliated. However, I sincerely hope it never gets to that.
/.../
However, when a few days ago a group of armed men tried to occupy the building of the Crimean Supreme Soviet, this caused the concern of the local residents. It seemed as though someone wanted to apply the Kiev scenario in Crimea and to launch a series of terrorist attacks and cause chaos. Naturally, this causes grave concern among the local residents. That is why they set up self-defence committees and took control over all the armed forces.

Incidentally, I was studying the brief yesterday to see what they took over – it is like a fortified zone. There are several dozen C-300 units, several dozen air-defence missile systems, 22,000 service members and a lot more. However, as I said, this is all in the hands of the people of Crimea and without a single gunshot.

QUESTION: Mr President, a clarification if I may. The people who were blocking the Ukrainian Army units in Crimea were wearing uniforms that strongly resembled the Russian Army uniform. Were those Russian soldiers, Russian military?

VLADIMIR PUTIN: Why don’t you take a look at the post-Soviet states. There are many uniforms there that are similar. You can go to a store and buy any kind of uniform.

QUESTION: But were they Russian soldiers or not?

VLADIMIR PUTIN: Those were local self-defence units.

QUESTION: How well trained are they? If we compare them to the self-defence units in Kiev…

VLADIMIR PUTIN: My dear colleague, look how well trained the people who operated in Kiev were. As we all know they were trained at special bases in neighbouring states: in Lithuania, Poland and in Ukraine itself too. They were trained by instructors for extended periods. They were divided into dozens and hundreds, their actions were coordinated, they had good communication systems. It was all like clockwork. Did you see them in action? They looked very professional, like special forces. Why do you think those in Crimea should be any worse?

QUESTION: In that case, can I specify: did we take part in training Crimean self-defence forces?

VLADIMIR PUTIN: No, we did not.

http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/6763

 

[Flying Pig]

I did think Putin was wonderfully brazen to ask the Duma for permission to invade after several brigades of his marines had landed.

 

[Formaldehyde]

Again, even if Putin is lying about what occurred, it hardly makes him "crazy". It is what your own government does on a regular basis, but they usually don't get caught.

Besides, this is clearly no "invasion". That is exactly the sort of sensationalism which has characterized much of this affair.

 

[Cutlass]

It's an annexation.

 

[Flying Pig]

Oh, he's not crazy, he's just incredibly Machiavellian. I would point out that troops in the street do not a free plebiscite make, and even then I think there's something not entirely right about moving into an area that you know to be vaguely sympathetic to your country and calling a plebiscite. I would hate to use an historical example for it.

 

[Yeekim]

Again, even if Putin is lying about what occurred, it hardly makes him "crazy".

Well, it amounts to admitting that the current movement of troops is not, in fact, legitimate.

It is what your own government does on a regular basis, but they usually don't get caught.

Reminds me of a joke:

- Sir, what are you doing?! You are urinating into the swimming-pool!
- So what is the big deal? Doesn't everyone do it?
- Well, maybe, but not from the diving platform!