Q1 GDP growth: +0.6%

[Desmond Hawkins]

What is the annual population growth of the US? 1%? So America has to grow at 1% just to stand still.

 

[emzie]

What is the annual population growth of the US? 1%? So America has to grow at 1% just to stand still.

.883% according to the CIA

 

[Godwynn]

What is the annual population growth of the US? 1%? So America has to grow at 1% just to stand still.

.883% according to the CIA

This may be of some use.

It is outdated though.

 

[Desmond Hawkins]

Neat list, but 2005 doesn't say much (as you pointed out I guess). Though it does help me with my larger point. Japan is actually ahead of the States over the last half dozen years or so in terms of per capita GDP growth. When your population is shrinking, 2-3 percent growth is pretty good. You guys HAVE to grow faster than everyone else.

When JH is quoting "real" GDP growth, I believe that only accounts for inflation, not population growth.

 

[Godwynn]

When JH is quoting "real" GDP growth, I believe that only accounts for inflation, not population growth.

Correct.

In 2007, Germany had a GDP growth (real) of 2.6% and the United States had a (real) growth of 2.2%

Of course, Germany is shrinking population (-.12%) and the United States is gaining.

 

[JerichoHill]

thats correct Sob. We could refer to GDP per capita if you wanted to tease out the effect of population change

 

[Desmond Hawkins]

thats correct Sob. We could refer to GDP per capita if you wanted to tease out the effect of population change

I would like that

It is hard to talk about the economic fortunes of the average American without reference to an average.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Its still .6% growth....of the largest economy in the world.

As its being pointed out, growth is still growth and is much preferable than the alternative.

A .5% better forcast after slashing rates isnt exactly good news either. Especially now that the interest rate is below the inflation rate. But with the looming recession now no longer certain at least the US has brought itself some time. (or was it .1% better )

 

[downtown]

the word downturn is too close to downtown. It gets me confused when I read all these posts.

 

[JollyRoger]

the word downturn is too close to downtown. It gets me confused when I read all these posts.

Yeah, it makes me want to rethink my pledge to vote for you.

 

[The Yankee]

Wait, so this is good news? .6% growth is pathetic. We can debate the health of the economy all we want, but the fact that people are gloating over this seems to me to be an indication that things aren't as great as you think.

Considering the general sour mood on the economy by and large, this is pretty good. Although it could still be revised...downwards or upwards, it's still slow, but promising, at least. Leads some credibility to the thought that any downturn here, whether it's officially a recession or not, will be shallow.

the word downturn is too close to downtown. It gets me confused when I read all these posts.

Time to be an uptown man.

 

[innonimatu]

Inno would probably want to check out the shadow government statistics

I dont agree with all the shadow stats, but some have legitimate methodological critiques of the official measures.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

Thanks, that was what I meant.

 

[The Yankee]

The current quarterly estimates correctly indicate the direction of change of real GDP 98 percent of the time, correctly indicate whether it is accelerating or decelerating 74 percent of the time,
and correctly indicate whether real GDP growth is above, near, or below trend growth more than three-fifths of the time.

That's at least promising. Even if the 0.6% number doesn't end up sticking.

 

[nivi]

It seems the choice is to either sheepishly believe we are in a recession, or blindlingly believe we're doing fine.

QFT.


XCLXCL

 

[Theige]

I knew it.

 

[LesCanadiens]

So if I understand this correctly, if GDP growth is less than population growth, per capita GDP is declining?

 

[LesCanadiens]

Then every economist also needs to be out there screaming "Hey, recessions don't mean what they used to and they are not as serious or damaging as they used to be!!"

Seriously, if you are going to move the goalposts, tell people they have been moved. Otherwise you're just urging people to panic.

This has been explained to you before.

 

[JerichoHill]

So if I understand this correctly, if GDP growth is less than population growth, per capita GDP is declining?

Generally speaking, thats most likely the case