Mise
isle of lucy
If you emigrate, and you don't have a job, and you aren't entitled to benefits.... how will you be better off? At least if you stay in Ireland you can claim unemployment benefit, housing allowance, etc.
Recession watch: April
- Thread starter RedRalph
- Start date
RedRalph
Deity
- Joined
- Jun 12, 2007
- Messages
- 20,708
Yeah, true. TBH, if I were you I'd be on the first plane out. Sadly, thats probably what a lot of people are going to have to do. again.
Shekwan
Kim Chi Quaffing Celt
You're right I wouldn't be better off. Put it this way - when I'm jobsearching after college I'm going to put a priority on work outside of Ireland.
Mise
isle of lucy
Huh, didn't realise that.
According to http://www.entitledto.co.uk , for an unemployed 23 yr old I'd be entitled to £156.70 per week total in benefits.
Personally I will probably go back to England when (unfortunately it's not if) the company I work for is wound up after the various divisions are sold.
People I used to work with in the London office are leaving left right and center and seem to be getting decent jobs. There is nothing here.
People I used to work with in the London office are leaving left right and center and seem to be getting decent jobs. There is nothing here.
Jan H
Prince
Belgium is now official in recession as well (the first quarter was -1.6% compared to the first quarter of 2008, IMF-predictions for 2009 are currently -3.8%)
Snorrius
Librivorator
Actually, UK is one the country which will be hit most due to oversized finance sector. And no one coming out next decade
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Integral
Can't you hear it?
BEA: Gross Domestic Product, first quarter 2009 (Advance)
By component: percentage change from previous period, annualized rates:
GDP: -6.1%
C: +2.2%
I: -51.8% (!!!)
G: -3.9%
EX: -30%
IM: -34%
As usual, this is advance data, subject to extensive revision, etc, etc. I think that this particular report will be subject to more revision than most, particular as regards C and I. Back-of-the-envelope calculations show that the reported decreases in nontrade domestic purchases (C+I+G) would imply a trade deficit of 6% of GDP, which is unlikely given BEA and Census port data from last quarter. I suspect that the increase in C is a bit too optimistic.
By component: percentage change from previous period, annualized rates:
GDP: -6.1%
C: +2.2%
I: -51.8% (!!!)
G: -3.9%
EX: -30%
IM: -34%
As usual, this is advance data, subject to extensive revision, etc, etc. I think that this particular report will be subject to more revision than most, particular as regards C and I. Back-of-the-envelope calculations show that the reported decreases in nontrade domestic purchases (C+I+G) would imply a trade deficit of 6% of GDP, which is unlikely given BEA and Census port data from last quarter. I suspect that the increase in C is a bit too optimistic.
Why is G falling?
PiMan
Deity
So what do those letters mean? I know GDP, and I'm guessing C is CPI but I would have a clue for the rest of them.
Mise
isle of lucy
That's the annualised rate. It's -16.6% over 4 months, or -5.9% per month, which isn't so shocking, given all that's been going on. It also speaks to what a tiny fraction of the US economic engine is driven by Investment compared to Consumption 
It'd be hard to beat the previous period in terms of government spending.
my thoughts exactly.
Integral
Can't you hear it?
Sorry for the minor confusion. Yeah, here's the key:
C = PCE = Personal Consumption Expenditures
I = PDI = Private Domestic Investment
G = GCE = Government Consumption Expenditures and Government Investment
EX = Exports of Goods and Services
IM = Imports of Goods and Services
NX = Net Exports = EX - IM
GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)
--
Hopefully when we're on the other side of the recession we'll see a healthier C+I mix.
Decreases in nonresidential fixed investment (plant, equipment, and software) contributed half of the investment number; decreases in residential investment contributed fifteen percent, and the rest was from a decline in inventories. All investment categories were negative last quarter (duh); state and local governments contributed to most of the decline in government spending. I don't trust the import/export numbers (not a knock on the BEA's statisticians, just a recognition that it's impossible to get good data in less than a month's time).
C = PCE = Personal Consumption Expenditures
I = PDI = Private Domestic Investment
G = GCE = Government Consumption Expenditures and Government Investment
EX = Exports of Goods and Services
IM = Imports of Goods and Services
NX = Net Exports = EX - IM
GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)
--
Two reasons: first, the state and local governments cut back significantly in January and February from last quarter, and second, the stimulus monies are being distributed over a timeframe of 24 months. So we'll see the first round of stimulus spending (aid to the states + infrastructure) hit in this quarter and later this year. The stimulus looks big at $800 billion, but is being doled out over two years and much of the money is tied up at the present.kronic said:
Your right in that it is annualized, and while not shocking it's significant.Mise said:
Hopefully when we're on the other side of the recession we'll see a healthier C+I mix.Decreases in nonresidential fixed investment (plant, equipment, and software) contributed half of the investment number; decreases in residential investment contributed fifteen percent, and the rest was from a decline in inventories. All investment categories were negative last quarter (duh); state and local governments contributed to most of the decline in government spending. I don't trust the import/export numbers (not a knock on the BEA's statisticians, just a recognition that it's impossible to get good data in less than a month's time).
Snorrius
Librivorator
I thought GM will fall earlier. Probably I should check my crystal ball
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