Recession watch: April

[Snorrius]

Pretty bad, eh?

Just media hype (c) Winner

Well, UK is finished, it was obvious as soon as this mess started. Hopefully they will not break into four countries as they have much more chances to do this then US.

 

[Integral]

Slate took the local area unemployment statistics and made a nice graphic that shows job losses by county.

The interactive stuff is here.

The US as of February 2009:

 

[mrt144]

Slate took the local area unemployment statistics and made a nice graphic that shows job losses by county.

The interactive stuff is here.

The US as of February 2009:

That was pretty cool.

 

[kronic]

Pretty bad, eh?

At least for Germany, official forecasts have now reached a level of GDP decline that many commentators on non-mainstream sites (i.e. blogs ) have assumed for a long time. Seeing that the UK entered deflation meanwhile, -4 % might still look optimistic. Given the sharp falls in Europe, especially the collapse in Eastern Europe, it's beyond me how the current recession can compared to the situation in the late 70's/early 80's.

I read on a big German news site (just can't remember which one it was) that Russia no longer wants to publish unemployment figures every month, only every three months from now on. Looks like things are getting nasty there.

 

[kronic]

UK GDP -1.9 % in Q1/2009. Spanish unemployment up to 17.4 %.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

UK GDP -1.9 % in Q1/2009. Spanish unemployment up to 17.4 %.

Spanish unemployment is getting surreal. However unemployemnt has always been very high here, so we are somewhat used to it.

 

[really]

Spanish unemployment is getting surreal. However unemployemnt has always been very high here, so we are somewhat used to it.

I was out last night and there were lots of Spanish around (including one who is on Spanish unemployment and in Galway to improve her English)

 

[really]

http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0424/houses.html

The latest figures show that house prices fell by another 1% in March, bringing the annual rate of decline to 10%.

The house price index, compiled by Permanent TSB and the ESRI, showed that the average house price has fallen by €8,000 - just over 3% - since the start of this year to €253,546. This compares with a peak of €311,078 in March 2007.

 

[Integral]

The FDIC's earning its pay this weekend...

Bank Failures #26, 27, 28, 29:

American Southern Bank, Kennesaw, Georgia, was closed today by the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with Bank of North Georgia, Alpharetta, Georgia, to assume all of the deposits, excluding those from brokers, of American Southern Bank.
...
As of March 30, 2009, American Southern Bank had total assets of approximately $112.3 million and total deposits of $104.3 million. Bank of North Georgia paid a premium of 0.003 percent to acquire the deposits of American Southern Bank.
...
In addition to acquiring $55.6 million of the failed bank's deposits, Bank of North Georgia agreed to purchase approximately $31.3 million in assets. The FDIC will retain any remaining assets for later disposition.

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund will be $41.9 million. Bank of North Georgia's acquisition of all the deposits of American Southern Bank was the "least costly" resolution for the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund compared to alternatives. American Southern Bank is the 26th bank to fail in the nation this year and the fifth in the state. The last bank to fail in Georgia was Omni National Bank, Atlanta, on March 29.

Michigan Heritage Bank, Farmington Hills, Michigan, was closed today by the Michigan Office of Financial and Insurance Regulation, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with Level One Bank, Farmington Hills, Michigan, to assume all of the deposits, excluding those from brokers, of Michigan Heritage.
...
As of December 31, 2008, Michigan Heritage had total assets of approximately $184.6 million and total deposits of $151.7 million. Level One paid a premium of 1.16 percent to acquire the deposits of Michigan Heritage.
...
The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund will be $71.3 million. Level One's acquisition of all the deposits of Michigan Heritage was the "least costly" resolution for the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund compared to alternatives. Michigan Heritage is the 27th bank to fail in the nation this year and the first in the state. The last bank to fail in Michigan was Main Street Bank, Northville, on October 10, 2008.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) approved the payout of the insured deposits of First Bank of Beverly Hills, Calabasas, California. The bank was closed today by the California Department of Financial Institutions, which appointed the FDIC as receiver.

For insured deposits placed directly with the bank and not through a broker, the FDIC will mail these customers checks for their insured funds on Monday. ...

First Bank of Beverly Hills, as of December 31, 2008, had total assets of $1.5 billion and total deposits of $1 billion. It is estimated that the bank has $179,000 of uninsured deposits.
....
First Bank of Beverly Hills is the 28th FDIC-insured institution to fail this year and the fourth in California. The last bank to be closed in the state was County Bank, Merced, on February 6, 2009. The FDIC estimates the cost of the failure to its Deposit Insurance Fund to be approximately $394 million.

No acquisition mentioned. Guess one wanted this one...

First Bank of Idaho, FSB, Ketchum, Idaho, was closed today by the Office of Thrift Supervision, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with U.S. Bank, Minneapolis, Minnesota, to assume all of the deposits, excluding those from brokers, of First Bank of Idaho.
...
As of December 31, 2008, First Bank of Idaho had total assets of approximately $488.9 million and total deposits of $374.0 million. U.S. Bank paid a premium of 0.55 percent to acquire the deposits of First Bank of Idaho.
...
The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund will be $191.2 million. U.S. Bank's acquisition of the deposits of First Bank of Idaho was the "least costly" resolution for the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund compared to alternatives. First Bank of Idaho is the 29th bank to fail in the nation this year and the first in the state. The last FDIC-insured institution to fail in Idaho was Northwestern Federal Savings and Loan Association, Boise, on August 26, 1988.

 

[RedRalph]

well, my country is doomed. Utterly doomed.

from irishtimes.com

Unemployment in Ireland will rise to almost 17 per cent next year, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) says in a report published today.

The ESRI forecast that Ireland will experience the sharpest fall in economic growth of any industrialised country since the Great Depression.

The institute said it expects the average number of jobs in the economy to fall by 187,300 this year as against last year. It expects to see the number of people unemployed averaging 292,200 this year, making for an average unemployment rate of 13.2 per cent.

It also believes a further 102,800 jobs will be lost next year pushing the unemployment rate to 16.8 per cent.

The institute’s spring quarterly economic commentary estimates that gross national product (GNP) will fall by 9.2 per cent this year.

“Our forecasts suggest that Ireland’s economy will contract by around 14 per cent over the three years 2008 to 2010. By historic and international standards this is a truly dramatic development.

“Prior to this the largest decline for an industrialised country since the 1930s had been in Finland, where real gross domestic product declined by 11 per cent between 1990 and 1993,” according to the ESRI.

 

[Gabryel Karolin]

Everyone is doomed . Same prognosis for Sweden is 12% total unemployment, however could be as much as 33% for people under 25 (already almost one in four in this category is unemployed).

 

[RedRalph]

things looking pretty bad for Germania too

BBC

The German government says the country's economy will shrink 6% this year, in a dramatic revision to its earlier forecast of a 2.25% decline.

It would be by far the worst post-war performance of the German economy, as the biggest previous decline was 0.8% in 1993, just after re-unification.

The government is sticking to its forecast of a mild recovery in 2010, although independent analysts disagree.

Germany has been hit by the collapse of demand for its global exports.

Last week Germany's eight leading economic think tanks said that the German economy would shrink by 6% this year, and continue to contract in 2010, with unemployment reaching 10%.

The gloomy forecast chimes with that of the IMF, which shows the German economy contracting by 5.6% this year, a faster decline than any other major economy apart from Japan.

Germany is the world's largest exporter, and the biggest economy in Europe, so its decline is weighing heavily on the economic prospects of other eurozone members.

But the German economy minister said that conditions would improve later in the year, citing recent business confidence surveys.

"These are all signs for a possible bottoming out," said Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg.

Corporate problems

The growing problems for the German economy have been reflected in sharp falls in profits for some of its leading companies.

The leading German chemical manufacturer, Bayer, said its first quarter profits fell 44% as the global economic crisis cut sharply into demand.

And tire and auto parts makers Continental reported a loss of 267m euros ($352m; £239m) in the first quarter as slumping demand for cars pushed its sales sharply lower.

Earlier in the week, leading car manufacturer Daimler reported a 1.3bn euro loss for the first quarter of the year.

 

[really]

Slump in imports lifts trade surplus
Wednesday, 29 April 2009 11:58
Official figures show that the country's trade surplus hit its highest levels for seven years in January and February, but this was mainly due to a dramatic fall in imports.

Preliminary figures for February show that the value of exports fell 5% from a year earlier to just over €7.75 billion, but imports plummeted by 23% to just over €4 billion, giving a surplus of just under €3.7 billion.

Detailed figures for January show that exports were down 3% from a year earlier at €6.93 billion, with exports of electrical machinery down 51% and computer equipment down 22%.

Exports to China fell by almost 40%, with exports to Britain were down 13%, though the figure for the US showed a 5% rise. The US was Ireland's biggest export market in January, followed by Britain

But imports in January slumped by 28% from a year earlier, with imports of road vehicles down 71% and computer equipment down 35%. Imports from the US and Britain fell 25% and 19% respectively, while imports from China were down 29%

http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0429/cso.html
Not sure how this would flow through the economy - lower imports means lower spending and lower taxes collected but it also means less cash flowing out of the country. From a mercantilism point of view it is good I suppose...

I wonder if it includes the value of groceries bought north of the border?

 

[RedRalph]

US economy shrunk at 6.1% in Q1 - they had been expecting 4.7. aint over yet, folks

 

[Shekwan]

If there isn't a general election this summer I'd be very surprised.

We only have ourselves to blame for voting those tools into office again two years ago. Goddamn civil war politics is also to blame.

The sad thing about it though is that if FG/Labour get into office they're going to have a big mess to clean up with lots of cuts and they will inevitably suffer a drop in public support.

Emigration asap.

 

[RedRalph]

If there isn't a general election this summer I'd be very surprised.

We only have ourselves to blame for voting those tools into office again two years ago. Goddamn civil war politics is also to blame.

The sad thing about it though is that if FG/Labour get into office they're going to have a big mess to clean up with lots of cuts and they will inevitably suffer a drop in public support.

Emigration asap.

To where? That option isnt even there now... face it, we're screwed.

 

[Mise]

Well the UK and US seems to be coming out better than Ireland or Germany. Take that, fiscal responsibility!

 

[Shekwan]

To where? That option isnt even there now... face it, we're screwed.

Somewhere were corruption isn't a national pastime for starters. Where political support is decided by policies, not what side the party was on in a war 80 years ago. Somewhere where they sort out healthcare expenditure by firing pointless administrators and bureaucrats instead of nurses would also be nice. Would any other country sell priceless gas reserves off their coast to an energy company for what amounts to pennies in the long run? Theres so much wrong with how this country was run, and allowed to run, over the last decade that it boggles the mind.

Sure theres nowhere that isn't effected by economic woes, but I would have a lot more confidence in most western countries to recover than Ireland at this stage. Not because of the deep hole we're in in particular but because inept governance seems to be the national sport.

 

[RedRalph]

Yeah, well, I cant disagree with any of that. I just meant from a jobs POV. but yeah, frankly at this stage I'd nearly rather be poor in Denmark or Germany than comfortable here

 

[Shekwan]

Yeah, well, I cant disagree with any of that. I just meant from a jobs POV. but yeah, frankly at this stage I'd nearly rather be poor in Denmark or Germany than comfortable here

From a jobs point of view it is a lot easier for me to say I will emigrate, as I'm a student and will most likely not get work when I graduate. What is there to lose? If I was working I could see why emigration woould not look like such a good option.