[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight

[Verbose]

I like this point, never thought about it in this way. As in, the Russians will have to explain it to both Trump and his MAGA supporters. It's just too complicated.

I think his ill-advised promise of ending the war in Ukraine in 24 hours wasn't just a massive bit of Trumpian hyperbole – he actually somehow thought just throwing enough money at the Russians, or the Ukranians, or both, would do it. And yet none of it is about money. That is only in the imaginary Trump-world, but no one in his entourage will tell him this, and that's what they have been selected for.

 

[Verbose]

Yes, 2 years ago they didn't want it and now they realize they are losing.

Whether they are or not doesn't matter. If they lose they lose. They have no choice but to fight, since Russia isn't providing some kind of choice. They could end up fighting at worse disadvantages, if Trump ends up ditching them, as clearly Moscow would like to see. But it won't change anything as far as Ukranians having to fight is concerned. They can always give up, lie down, and die. Now or later, due to Ukranian collapse, or of Russian outright overpowering, the end result won't matter.

Then again, it's extremely unobvious if the Ukranians are losing. Current track record indicates Russian self-confidence is a dangerous thing, for the Russians.

Trump did kind of try to build that Golden Bridge for Putin to retreat across - as far as Trump understands things (which is not far at all) – and Putin wasn't interested.

Similarly, Russia offers nothing even like the figment of the imagination of a bridge to retreat across for the Ukranians. Don't expect them to retreat somewhere that just does not exist.

 

[Kyriakos]

Whether they are or not doesn't matter. If they lose they lose. They have no choice but to fight, since Russia isn't providing some kind of choice. They could end up fighting at worse disadvantages, if Trump ends up ditching them, as clearly Moscow would like to see. But it won't change anything as far as Ukranians having to fight is concerned. They can always give up, lie down, and die. Now or later, due to Ukranian collapse, or of Russian outright overpowering, the end result won't matter.

Then again, it's extremely unobvious if the Ukranians are losing. Current track record indicates Russian self-confidence is a dangerous thing, for the Russians.

Trump did kind of try to build that Golden Bridge for Putin to retreat across - as far as Trump understands things (which is not far at all) – and Putin wasn't interested.

Similarly, Russia offers nothing even like the figment of the imagination of a bridge to retreat across for the Ukranians. Don't expect them to retreat somewhere that just does not exist.

What it has changed is that by now Ukraine will lose more than what it would if there were peace talks in 2022 (because then Ukraine was in a vastly better position than now, due to having just fought a successful counter-attack).
Regardless of the results for other places, the one standing to lose more is Ukraine itself. US has largely isolated itself from the conflict, after getting its strategic objective (cutting energy reliance of Eu from Russia). As a secondary gain, it will receive mineral wealth.
Trump being senile and problematic in all sorts of ways doesn't imply at all that the US has no specific policy (as it didn't imply that under Biden either), nor that it hasn't looked after its interests just fine. You obviously don't sell a position to the usefulls by presenting what you have to gain; you let them believe it's about what they may gain.

 

[Verbose]

What it has changed is that by now Ukraine will lose more than what it would if there were peace talks in 2022 (because then Ukraine was in a vastly better position than now, due to having just fought a successful counter-attack).
Regardless of the results for other places, the one standing to lose more is Ukraine itself. US has largely isolated itself from the conflict, after getting its strategic objective (cutting energy reliance of Eu from Russia).
Trump being senile and problematic in all sorts of ways doesn't imply at all that the US has no specific policy, nor that it hasn't looked after its interests just fine.

So? They are damned if they do and damned if they don't in relation to Russia. Russia forced it all on Ukraine. You cannot think asking Russia nicely to leave something for Ukraine is going to work.

IF Ukraine loses, even if they are destroyed utterly, it will still remain a matter of record whether they went out fighting or somehow betrayed themselves by trying to negotiate with Putin – who isn't allowing actual negotiations anyway.

It's the kind of situation that decides if later then might be a national restoration, or not.

In any case, Ukraine has no real option but to fight here. Whether that is successful or not in the end actually is kind of secondary.

And besides, it's only in Russia it seems obvious Russia is winning.

 

[Kyriakos]

So? They are damned if they do and damned if they don't in relation to Russia. Russia forced it all on Ukraine. You cannot think asking Russia nicely to leave something for Ukraine is going to work.

IF Ukraine loses, even if they are destroyed utterly, it will still remain a matter of record whether they went out fighting or somehow betrayed themselves by trying to negotiate with Putin – who isn't allowing actual negotiations anyway.

It's the kind of situation that decides if later then might be a national restoration, or not.

In any case, Ukraine has no real option but to fight here. Whether that is successful or not in the end actually is kind of secondary.

And besides, it's only in Russia it seems obvious Russia is winning.

Of course Russia forced this on Ukraine. That's not something that matters now, does it? (not practically; ethically it does).
"If Ukraine is destroyed" they will have some moral victory etc, is easy to say for us who are outside of it. Not everyone there (or anywhere else) is young enough to just start over in some other country.

As for whether it is obvious that Russia is winning - forget all else and ask yourself why Ukraine (and Eu etc) keeps pleading for a ceasefire. A large offensive is on the way, that much should be clear.

 

[Verbose]

Of course Russia forced this on Ukraine. That's not something that matters now, does it? (not practically; ethically it does).
"If Ukraine is destroyed" they will have some moral victory etc, is easy to say for us who are outside of it. Not everyone there (or anywhere else) is young enough to just start over in some other country.

As for whether it is obvious that Russia is winning - forget all else and ask yourself why Ukraine (and Eu etc) keeps pleading for a ceasefire.

If Ukraine fights, it might save itself. If it doesn't, it's over.

Finnish WWII lesson. (How you lose matters.)

As for the ceasefire thing – Trump. (That one is about messaging, not the actual war.)

 

[EvaDK]

Another A50 is rumored to be damaged/lost in the attack yesterday, which would leave the Russian air force with 3-4 operational A50s left.

Their industry can't replace them, nor the long distance bombers they're losing.
I think the only one currently being manufactured still, is the Tu-160 at a rate of approx. 1 aircraft per year.

 

[red_elk]

As for whether it is obvious that Russia is winning - forget all else and ask yourself why Ukraine (and Eu etc) keeps pleading for a ceasefire. A large offensive is on the way, that much should be clear.

It's more likely about running out of Biden-approved funding, rather than possible offensive.
Last two times, big aid packages came right when they were starting to experience serious troubles on the frontline, and lasted ~6 months.

 

[Kyriakos]

It's more likely about running out of Biden-approved funding, rather than possible offensive.
Last two times, big aid packages came right when they were starting to experience serious troubles on the frontline, and lasted ~6 months.

It's what Z has said, and also reported on by various western media (including Reuters and BBC)

Intelligence shows Russia planning new offensive operations in Ukraine, Zelensky says

"There is no evidence that (the Russians) are seriously considering peace...On the contrary, there is a lot of evidence that they are preparing new offensive operations."

kyivindependent.com

 

[saamohod]

The sad thing about the world security nowadays is that USA funding doesn't last as long as North Korea funding.

 

[Verbose]

The sad thing about the world security nowadays is that USA funding doesn't last as long as North Korea funding.

The US is having a "Vichy moment" in its history – all the aggrieved kooks and the cranks that under normalm circumstances would never be allowed anywhere near the actual levers of power have been allowed to have a go at running the country.

 

[ConquestsMaster]

Of course Russia forced this on Ukraine. That's not something that matters now, does it? (not practically; ethically it does).
"If Ukraine is destroyed" they will have some moral victory etc, is easy to say for us who are outside of it. Not everyone there (or anywhere else) is young enough to just start over in some other country.

As for whether it is obvious that Russia is winning - forget all else and ask yourself why Ukraine (and Eu etc) keeps pleading for a ceasefire. A large offensive is on the way, that much should be clear.

I'll just point out that pro-Russians like red_elk and Comrade Ceasefire (who created his whole identity around theme) pleaded for a ceasefire a while ago. Yet no serious observer claimed that it meant that Russia was on the verge of total collapse.

The problem in reaching a peace settlement has been simple from the start, so it is surprising that people are still arguing about it. The demands from Russia have focused on reducing the Ukrainian state to a powerless puppet. It is no surprise that the leaders of Ukraine have refused such a proposal. In the end, they are the leaders of a state more than they are the leaders of a people or an ethnicity. So why would they submit to the demands of Russia, which would effectively destroy the Ukrainian state that they lead?

Ukraine's position is that if it can hold back the Russians to some degree, it might be able to reduce the harshness of Russian demands. Russia's position was initially not to budge in its demands and to force Ukraine capitulation by destroying their ability (or will) to fight. The problem is that after three years of Russian offensives, like the one you're currently hyping up, Russia has failed in this regards. Ukraine's armed forces are still formidable, despite all the challenges they face. Why would Ukraine capitulate because they lost a few more towns in Donestk or a few more people? For sure, Russia has more resources, and will win in the long term if they can send enough of their men to die. But in the post-WW2 world, many larger powers have give up on wars against smaller adversaries because they perceived fighting as an endless waste of resources.

Russia likely won't give up, the fighting is too close to their border and the stakes are perceived as too high. But they might eventually moderate their demands. We already see sign of this. At least from what I read, there seems to a be a lot less focus nowadays on "demilitarization", "denazification" and installing a friendly regime in Kyiv. It seems like Russia has shifted its focus to territorial aggrandizement. And it is easy to spin as a win for the home crowd. "Look we got 4 new oblasts, and Ukraine could have kept them if only they had been smart enough to accept our initial magnanimous peace conditions." Russian propaganda online seems to be working hard to shift the focus this way. Meanwhile, Ukraine might be able to retain its independence in a way that wouldn't have been possible under the initial terms proposed by Russia.

Sure one might argue that it might have been smarter for Ukraine to submit itself to Russia and to become its vassal, but avoid the demographic and territorial losses caused by the war. That way it could eventually regain its independence while being more "intact". But that would be more pointless speculation... Meanwhile in the real world, Ukrainian and Russian negotiatiors are meeting again in Istanbul:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-ukraine-talk-about-peace-are-still-far-apart-2025-06-02/

Ukraine attack on Russian nuclear bombers overshadows peace talks in Turkey​

Vladimir Soldatkin, Tom Balmforth, Huseyin Hayatsever

6–7 minutes

---

ISTANBUL, June 2 (Reuters) - Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul ended barely an hour after they began on Monday, a day after a massive Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's nuclear-capable strategic bombers.

The talks - the second such direct contacts between the sides since 2022 - had already begun nearly two hours later than scheduled with no explanation of the delay.

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Although the atmosphere was subdued and dialogue brief, the talks did yield an agreement to conduct a new prisoner exchange and Ukraine said another round of talks was on the agenda.

In Russia, before the talks began, angry war bloggers had called on Moscow to deliver a fearsome retaliatory blow against Kyiv after Ukraine on Sunday launched one of its most ambitious attacks of the war, targeting Russian nuclear-capable long-range bombers in Siberia and elsewhere.

Ukraine and Russia have issued starkly different assessments of the damage done to Russia's fleet of strategic bombers - a key element in its nuclear arsenal - but it was clear from publicly available satellite imagery that Moscow had suffered some serious equipment losses.

"The eyes of the whole world are focused on the contacts here," Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan had told the Russian and Ukrainian delegations at the start of talks as they faced off against each other on opposite sides of the room in the sumptuous Ciragan Palace by the Bosphorus.

He said the aim of the meeting was to evaluate the conditions for a ceasefire, to discuss a possible meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents, and to look at more prisoner exchange opportunities.

Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, who headed Kyiv's delegation, announced after the talks that a new prisoner exchange had been agreed to follow up on the biggest prisoner swap of the war brokered at the last round of talks.

He said the new exchange would focus on those severely injured in the war and on young people.

Umerov also said that Moscow had handed its own draft peace accord to Ukraine and that Kyiv - which has drawn up its own version - would review the Russian document.

Ukraine has proposed holding more talks before the end of June, but believes that only a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russian President Vladimir Putin can resolve the many issues of contention, Umerov said.

Zelenskiy's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, said Kyiv's delegation had handed over a list of children it said had been deported to Russia and which it wanted back. Moscow says such children were moved in order to protect them from fighting.

The two sides had been expected on Monday to discuss their respective and wildly different ideas for what a full ceasefire and a longer term path to peace should look like amid pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has said the U.S. could abandon its role as a mediator if there is no progress.

But Umerov said Kyiv had been unable to react to Russia's proposals for peace because it had only seen them on Monday.

LOW EXPECTATIONS​

While both countries, for different reasons, are keen to keep Trump engaged in the peace process, expectations of a breakthrough on Monday had been low.

Ukraine regards Russia's approach to date as an attempt to force it to capitulate - something Kyiv says it will never do - while Moscow, which advanced on the battlefield in May at its fastest rate in six months, says Kyiv should submit to peace on Russian terms or face losing more territory.

Putin set out his opening terms for an immediate end to the war last June: Ukraine must drop its NATO ambitions and withdraw all of its troops from the entirety of the territory of four Ukrainian regions claimed and mostly controlled by Russia.

According to a proposed roadmap drawn up by Ukraine, a copy of which was seen by Reuters, Kyiv wants no restrictions on its military strength after any peace deal, no international recognition of Russian sovereignty over parts of Ukraine taken by Moscow's forces, and wants reparations.

Russia currently controls just under one fifth of Ukraine, or about 113,100 square km, about the same size as the U.S. state of Ohio.

Putin sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on February 24, 2022, after eight years of fighting in eastern Ukraine between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces.

The United States says over 1.2 million people have been killed and injured in the war since 2022.

Trump has called Putin "crazy" and berated Zelenskiy in public in the Oval Office, but the U.S. president has also said he thinks peace is achievable and that if Putin delays then he could impose tough sanctions on Russia.

 

[Kyriakos]

I'll just point out that pro-Russians like red_elk and Comrade Ceasefire (who created his whole identity around theme) pleaded for a ceasefire a while ago. Yet no serious observer claimed that it meant that Russia was on the verge of total collapse.

"Some posters on CFC pleaded for a ceasefire, so how can you claim that Zelensky and the Eu doing it means anything more?"
That's the state of logic. And even such requires accepting that random posters actually pleaded.
As this is persistently the type of arguments you offer, I won't be noticing your posts again.

 

[ConquestsMaster]

"Some posters on CFC pleaded for a ceasefire, so how can you claim that Zelensky and the Eu doing it means anything more?"
That's the state of logic. And even such requires accepting that random posters actually pleaded.

Hahaha. My bad Kyriakos. I agree that I didn't write this clearly. Both red_elk and Comrade Ceasefire were just regurgitating Russian propaganda. At the exact same time, the Russian state, and especially Russian propoganda, was pushing for a ceasefire or "freezing" the frontline. I'm sure you remember that. I'll give you a source below, but when I'll have time I'll share more. Anyway, since almost none of your posts here refer to news or to actual events, I thought you would have been more familiar and interested in forum posters than news outlets.

Strangely, as soon as Russia stopped pushing this narrative, so did our resident independent thinkers. Comrade Ceasefire stopped posting. And red_elk stopped the disingenuous posts à la "I'm against the war, so I favor freezing the frontline" (thus confirming Russians conquests).

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...cted-by-united-states-sources-say-2024-02-13/

Exclusive: Putin's suggestion of Ukraine ceasefire rejected by United States, sources say​

Guy Faulconbridge, Darya Korsunskaya

6–8 minutes

---

MOSCOW/LONDON, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin's suggestion of a ceasefire in Ukraine to freeze the war was rejected by the United States after contacts between intermediaries, three Russian sources with knowledge of the discussions told Reuters.

The failure of Putin's approach ushers in a third year of the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War Two and illustrates just how far apart the world's two largest nuclear powers remain.

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A U.S. source denied there had been any official contact and said Washington would not engage in talks that did not involve Ukraine.

Putin sent signals to Washington in 2023 in public and privately through intermediaries, including through Moscow's Arab partners in the Middle East and others, that he was ready to consider a ceasefire in Ukraine, the Russian sources said.

Putin was proposing to freeze the conflict at the current lines and was unwilling to cede any of the Ukrainian territory controlled by Russia, but the signal offered what some in the Kremlin saw as the best path towards a peace of some kind.

"The contacts with the Americans came to nothing," a senior Russian source with knowledge of the discussions in late 2023 and early 2024 told Reuters on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation.

A second Russian source with knowledge of the contacts told Reuters that the Americans told Moscow, via the intermediaries, they would not discuss a possible ceasefire without the participation of Ukraine and so the contacts ended in failure.

A third source with knowledge of the discussions said: "Everything fell apart with the Americans." The source said that the Americans did not want to pressure Ukraine.

The extent of the contacts - and their failure - has not previously been reported.

It comes as U.S. President Joe Biden has for months been pushing Congress to approve more aid for Ukraine, but has faced opposition from allies of Republican presidential nomination frontrunner Donald Trump.

The Kremlin, the White House, the U.S. State Department and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) all declined to comment.

U.S. SAYS 'NO BACK CHANNEL'​

Putin sent thousands of troops into Ukraine in February 2022, triggering a full-scale war after eight years of conflict in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian forces on the one side and pro-Russian Ukrainians and Russian proxies on the other.

Ukraine says it is fighting for its existence and the West casts Putin's invasion as an imperial-style land grab that challenges the post-Cold War international order.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says he will never accept Russia's control over Ukrainian land. He has outlawed any contacts with Russia.

A U.S. official, speaking in Washington on condition of anonymity, said that the U.S. has not engaged in any back channel discussions with Russia and that Washington had been consistent in not going behind the back of Ukraine.

The U.S. official said that there appeared to have been unofficial "Track II" conversations among Russians not in the government but that the United States was not engaged in them.

The U.S. official said Putin's proposal, based on what has been publicly reported, was unchanged from past demands that Russia hold on to Ukrainian territory. The official suggested that there appeared to be frustration in Moscow that Washington had repeatedly refused to accept it.

Putin told U.S. talk-show host Tucker Carlson last week that Russia was ready for "dialogue".

CONTACTS​

Intermediaries met in Turkey in late 2023, according to three Russian sources.

A fourth diplomatic source said that there had been Russian-U.S. unofficial contacts through intermediaries at Russia's initiative but that they appeared to have come to nothing.

The U.S. official said he was unaware of unofficial contact through intermediaries.

According to three Russian sources, Putin's signal was relayed to Washington, where top U.S. officials including White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met.

The idea was that Sullivan would speak to Putin's foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov, and set out the next steps, one of the Russian sources said.

But when the call came in January, Sullivan told Ushakov that Washington was willing to talk about other aspects of the relationship but would not speak about a ceasefire without Ukraine, said one of the Russian sources.

The U.S. official refused to be drawn on any details of Sullivan's purported calls, or whether such a conversation with Ushakov took place.

PUTIN 'READY TO FIGHT ON'​

One of the Russian sources expressed frustration with the United States over Washington's insistence that it would not nudge Ukraine towards talks given that the United States was helping to fund the war.

"Putin said: 'I knew they wouldn't do anything'," another of the Russian sources said. "They cut off the root of the contacts which had taken two months to create."

Another Russian source said that the United States did not appear to believe Putin was sincere.

"The Americans didn't believe Putin was genuine about a ceasefire - but he was and is - he is ready to discuss a ceasefire. But equally Putin is also ready to fight on for as long as it takes - and Russia can fight for as long as it takes," the Russian source said.

The Kremlin sees little point in further contacts with the United States on the issue, the Russian sources said, so the war would continue.

 

[red_elk]

"Some posters on CFC pleaded for a ceasefire, so how can you claim that Zelensky and the Eu doing it means anything more?"
That's the state of logic. And even such requires accepting that random posters actually pleaded.

I said Russia and Ukraine should start peace talks without pre-conditions, roughly 2.5 years ago. Now we are at this stage, at last.

 

[ConquestsMaster]

I said Russia and Ukraine should start peace talks without pre-conditions, roughly 2.5 years ago. Now we are at this stage, at last.

My memory is vague. Weren't you also arguing about freezing the frontline without preconditions?

Russia was certainly arguing for that in the past. So it made sense for people who wanted to see Russia victorious to argue for the same.

But now that the battlefield situation has changed, Ukraine is asking for freezing the frontline without preconditions. And Russia refuses to do so. Russia will negotiate but it has conditions for freezing the frontline.

Most people arguing about this are generally mainly interested in seeing their side victorious. But they present it as stemming from a desire for peace to try to convince a larger public.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Moderator Action: And back to news please.

 

[saamohod]

The memorandum Ukraine's delegation presented to Russia during today's negotiations (or "negotiations"):

Spoiler :

Russia presented no memorandum of their own despite having promised to do so. Needless to say they didn't agree to the UA's memo.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Let me guess which the Russian memo would have been:

"Can you withdraw from your own country please? We can't successfully invade it otherwise"

 

[red_elk]

Russia presented its proposals for a peaceful settlement directly at the meeting. Kiev believes it will take a week to study the documents. The Ukrainian side proposed to hold the next negotiations in the period from June 20 to June 30.

Russia and Ukraine have agreed on a large-scale prisoner exchange. The main thing

The second round of negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul lasted more than an hour. The representatives of the countries exchanged documents on the settlement of the conflict and agreed on the largest prisoner exchange and the transfer of the bodies of dead...

en.iz.ru