[RD] Russia invades Ukraine V: The Turning Tide

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What always amazes me is the incredible doublethinking abilities of the Americans.
They can bash Russia for military aggression, in the same time acknowledge that their country murdered literally millions of civilians in military adventures.
And in the same time claim moral highground over China which has done nothing of the sort since Sino-Vietnamese conflict.
This may be one of the reasons


Something you country had/has in store for Ukrainian people
 
It takes some of us a while to pull our idiots back. And yes, they kill lots of people. Which is why, I assume, "all Russians have never been ugly." Or whatever our exchange was. But if I had said we should have annexed Iraq and kept Afghanistan, and just murdered the people into submission until they were Empire. Then yes, everything bad I say about rapist imperialists and their dingleberries would apply to me too. It might even, some of the time, still - when I'm not careful of my mind.

But here we are. Some of us much more than others. True.
 
There's no evidence for that, unlike the Russian concentration, I mean "filtration" camps, or Russian state propagandists claiming that it'll be necessary to murder at least 5% of Ukrainian population.
The Russian ones exist only in Ukrainian propaganda.
While Ukrainian officials repeatedly promised "filtration" of anyone they deem as collaborants. Which includes people like school teachers and firefighters.
 
New estimates put Russian losses at 200,000

Soaring Death Toll Gives Grim Insight Into Russian Tactics​

Moscow is sending poorly trained recruits, including convicts, to the front lines in eastern Ukraine to pave the way for more seasoned fighters, U.S. and allied officials say.

WASHINGTON — The number of Russian troops killed and wounded in Ukraine is approaching 200,000, a stark symbol of just how badly President Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion has gone, according to American and other Western officials.
While the officials caution that casualties are notoriously difficult to estimate, particularly because Moscow is believed to routinely undercount its war dead and injured, they say the slaughter from fighting in and around the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut and the town of Soledar has ballooned what was already a heavy toll. With Moscow desperate for a major battlefield victory and viewing Bakhmut as the key to seizing the entire eastern Donbas area, the Russian military has sent poorly trained recruits and former convicts to the front lines, straight into the path of Ukrainian shelling and machine guns. The result, American officials say, has been hundreds of troops killed or injured a day. Russia analysts say that the loss of life is unlikely to be a deterrent to Mr. Putin’s war aims. He has no political opposition at home and has framed the war as the kind of struggle the country faced in World War II, when more than 8 million Soviet troops died. U.S. officials have said that they believe that Mr. Putin can sustain hundreds of thousands of casualties in Ukraine, although higher numbers could cut into his political support.

Ukraine’s casualty figures are also difficult to ascertain, given Kyiv’s reluctance to disclose its own wartime losses. But in Bakhmut, hundreds of Ukrainian troops have been wounded and killed daily at times as well, officials said. Better trained infantry formations are kept in reserve to safeguard them, while lesser prepared troops, such as those in the territorial defense units, are kept on the front line and bear the brunt of shelling. The last public Biden administration estimate of casualties came last November, when Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that more than 100,000 troops on each side had been killed and wounded since the war began. At the time, officials said privately that the numbers were closer to 120,000.
“I would say it’s significantly well over 100,000 now,” General Milley said at a news conference last month in Germany, adding that the Russian toll included “regular military, and also their mercenaries in the Wagner Group.”

At two meetings last month between senior military and defense officials from NATO and partner countries, officials said the fighting in the Donbas had turned into, as one of them put it, a meat grinder. On Norwegian TV on Jan. 22, Gen. Eirik Kristoffersen, Norway’s defense chief, said estimates were that Russia had suffered 180,000 dead and wounded, while Ukraine had 100,000 killed or wounded in action along with 30,000 civilian deaths. General Kristoffersen, in an email to The New York Times through his spokesman, said that there is “much uncertainty regarding these numbers, as no one at the moment are able to give a good overview. They could be both lower or even higher.”

Senior U.S. officials said this week that they believe the number for Russia is closer to 200,000. That toll, in just 11 months, is eight times higher than American casualties in two decades of war in Afghanistan. The figures for Ukraine and Russia are estimates based on satellite imagery, communication intercepts, social media and on-the-ground media reports, as well as official reporting from both governments. Establishing precise numbers is extremely difficult, and estimates vary, even within the U.S. government.

A senior U.S. military official last month described the combat around Bakhmut as savage. The two sides exchanged several thousand rounds of artillery fire each day, while the Wagner private military company, which has been central to Russia’s efforts there, had essentially begun using recruited convicts as cannon fodder, the official told reporters. He spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational details. The convicts took the brunt of the Ukrainian response while the group’s more seasoned fighters moved in behind them to claim ground, the official said. Wagner has recruited some 50,000 troops to fight in Ukraine, according to senior American military and defense officials.

Thousands of the convicts have been killed, a loss of life that has shocked American officials, who say the strategic value of the Bakhmut simply is not in line with the price Russia has paid.

In an interview on Tuesday, a senior Defense official pointed to myriad Russian military supply and tactical problems to explain the Russian tactics. Russia, he said, is running low on artillery, and low on munitions. So Moscow is making up for that deficit by sending in convicts in waves into places like Bakhmut and Soledar, losing hundreds of people a day.

The Russian military has been following the Wagner playbook and deliberately using the poorly trained troops to draw, and deplete, Ukrainian fire, senior American military and defense officials said. Kusti Salm, Estonia’s deputy defense minister, in a briefing with reporters in Washington last week, said that Russia’s casualties were high in part because of its use of convicts on the front line in Bakhmut. “In this particular area, the Russians have employed around 40,000 to 50,000 inmates or prisoners,” Mr. Salm said. “They are going up against regular soldiers, people with families, people with regular training, valuable people for the Ukrainian military.” “So the exchange rate is unfair,” he added. “It’s not one to one because for Russia, inmates are expendable. From an operational perspective, this is a very unfair deal for the Ukrainians and a clever tactical move from the Russian side.”

Moscow has thrown people it sees as expendable into battles for decades, if not centuries. During World War II, Joseph Stalin sent close to one million prisoners to the front. Boris Sokolov, a Russia historian, describes in a piece called “Gulag Reserves” in the Russian opposition magazine Grani.ru that an additional one million “special settlers”— deportees and others viewed by the Soviet government as second-class citizens — were also forced to fight during World War II. “In essence, it does not matter how big the Russian losses are, since their overall human resource is much greater than Ukraine’s,” Mr. Salm, the Estonian official, said in a follow-up email. “In Russia the life of a soldier is worth nothing. A dead soldier, on the other hand, is a hero, regardless of how he died. All lost soldiers can be replaced, and the number of losses will not shift the public opinion against the war.”

Julian E. Barnes contributed reporting.

 
Russian troops arent "Dead"
They are just "Missing"

Though in a rather Stalinist manner the using up of Russian prisoners is a net positive of reducing the undesirables and criminals
I cannot imagine too many are volunteering these days, as survival rate is likely to be near zero
 
At the very least, it's acknowledgement that the previous donations were insufficient and that the West run out of Soviet models to donate.
I don't see a point in discussing allegations about Russian war crimes in Western press, as reports in Russian press about Ukrainian war crimes were repeatedly dismissed and branded as Russian propaganda or false flag.

Like the "genocide" by Ukraine in Donbas
Or the "nuclear weapons" that Ukraine was building

Is MYSTERY ? why no one believes in Russian claims ???
Meanwhile Putin awards the regiment that carried out Bucha, endorsing Russian atrocities
 
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What always amazes me is the incredible doublethinking abilities of the Americans.
They can bash Russia for military aggression, in the same time acknowledge that their country murdered literally millions of civilians in military adventures.
And in the same time claim moral highground over China which has done nothing of the sort since Sino-Vietnamese conflict.
There you go again, talking about the past and not the present. How far back do you want to complain about American intervention?
 
The Russian ones exist only in Ukrainian propaganda.
Just like all the documented war crimes with moutains of evidence.
Anything and everything bad done by Russia is just Ukrainian propaganda.
Even when Russia itself boast about it and there is video of it, and hundred of direct witnesses, it's still Ukrainian propaganda.

And then you complain that we don't believe your claims and that American have doublethink (while you make a huge deal of 3000 dead collateral during 8 years while ignoring over 100 000, many of them purposely targeted, in under a year). I'd post the "you don't say" meme a second time but it would be redundant.
 
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Though in a rather Stalinist manner the using up of Russian prisoners is a net positive of reducing the undesirables and criminals
I cannot imagine too many are volunteering these days, as survival rate is likely to be near zero
A Russian humanitarian org concentrating on the Russian prison system recently put out that as far as they could tell, after Wagner drafting in the prisons, they could not account for as many as 80% of the inmates that took the offer – if so about a 20% survival rate.
 

Responding to the news that the UN has verified that Russian soldiers have subjected Ukrainian civilians to a rights-abusing process known as “filtration”, a practice independently verified by Amnesty International as deeply abusive and humiliating, Marie Struthers, Amnesty’s Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, said:

“The abusive and humiliating process known as ‘filtration’ is a shocking violation of international human rights and humanitarian law. Our research shows that many displaced Ukrainians end up inside Russia or Russia-occupied territories involuntarily, even if they are not physically forced to move. Deportation and forcible transfer of civilians in occupied territory are prohibited by international humanitarian law and can constitute war crimes or crimes against humanity. Putting these forcibly displaced civilians through the abuses of ‘filtration’ is both cynical and cruel.

But wait, this may be countered with a youtube of someone saying: It was them Ukrainians!
 
Russian troops arent "Dead"
They are just "Missing"
Ironically, this is the excuse currently actively used by Ukraine - to misreport own soldiers as MIA and avoid paying the compensation.
There you go again, talking about the past and not the present.
Speaking about illegal occupation of foreign territory, this continues to this day, for example in Syria.
 

“We Had No Choice”​

“Filtration” and the Crime of Forcibly Transferring Ukrainian Civilians to Russia


Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russian and Russian-affiliated officials have forcibly transferred Ukrainian civilians, including those fleeing hostilities, to areas of Ukraine occupied by Russia or to the Russian Federation, a serious violation of the laws of war amounting to a war crime and a potential crime against humanity. Many of those forcibly transferred were fleeing the besieged port city of Mariupol.

Russian and Russian-affiliated authorities also subjected thousands of these Ukrainian citizens to a process referred to by Russia as “filtration,” a form of compulsory security screening, in which they typically collected civilians’ biometric data, including fingerprints and front and side facial images; conducted body searches, and searched personal belongings and phones; and questioned them about their political views. Ukrainian civilians were effectively interned as they waited to undergo this process, with many reporting that they were housed in overcrowded and squalid conditions, for periods as short as several hours for up to almost a month.

Forced transfers and the filtration process constitute and involve separate and distinct abuses against civilians, although many Ukrainian civilians experienced both.

This report documents the forcible transfer of Ukrainian civilians from Mariupol and the Kharkiv region to Russia and Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine. Unlike combatants who, once captured, are held as prisoners of war (POWs) and may be moved to enemy territory, the forcible transfer of civilians is prohibited under international humanitarian law, or the laws of war, and can be prosecuted as a war crime and a crime against humanity. The report describes various kinds of pressure the Russian military and other Russian and Russian-affiliated officials used to make Ukrainian civilians fleeing hostilities go to Russia or the so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic” (DNR), an area of the Donetsk region controlled by Russian-affiliated armed groups and currently occupied by Russia (DNR is used in this report as a reference to this area, not as recognition of any claims to sovereignty). The report also describes the many challenges Ukrainian civilians faced and the abuses they suffered as they attempted to flee Mariupol for Ukrainian-controlled territory and avoid going to Russia, or as they tried to leave Russia for a third country.
 
Meanwhile, NYT reports that Russian imports have recovered to pre-war levels :)
Even so, Russian trade appears to have largely bounced back to where it was before the invasion of Ukraine last February. Analysts estimate that Russia’s imports may have already recovered to prewar levels, or will soon do so, depending on their models.

In fact, the resilience of Russia’s economy is helping fuel global growth, according to a new report by the International Monetary Fund. In a report issued on Monday, the I.M.F. predicts that Russian output will expand 0.3 percent in this year and 2.1 percent next year, defying earlier forecasts of a steep contraction in 2023.
 
Just like all the documented war crimes with mountains of evidence.
If this were to be true, I would be sad.
I do not want to be sad.
So it must be Ukrainian propaganda!

Russia doesn't kill civilians, doesn't deport civilians, didn't invade Ukraine, never bombed a theater in Mariupol or executed civilians in Bucha;
Ukraine killed it's own civilians, deported it's civilians to Russia, made Russia invade Ukraine, bombed it's own theater, and executed their civilians in Bucha.

Russians are outraged.
 
The NYT really seems to be pushing this angle hard (two related pieces, a day after each other).

Strange how in this case, Western media is acceptable. It's almost like it's the tone of the coverage that matters, and not the facts reported therein. I'm not saying the IMF prediction is make-believe - it happened. I'm saying it's very interesting that it's "Western media bad" whenever the predictions go against Russia, or come up in favour of Ukraine.
 
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