[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: War News Thread: Round 6

[Sarin]

Its all about waging war to get more motivation for soldiers. Russia has never been aimed at destroying Ukrainians because of their independence. It's all about NATO expansion to the east. (in Putins opinion, иге we dont know what can be happen, if Ukrain join NATO (and Poroshenko's government introduced such a clause to the country's constitution (Euro-Atlantic course))
Munih Putin's speech

Ukrainian nationalism began its rapid development in the 80-90s, and after the collapse of the USSR it accelerated (as in all former Soviet republics, which is generally normal, if it goes in a controlled direction). Threat to Crimeans russian ppl from 1992

After the Orange Revolution in 2005, nationalist groups gained even more support. (Although, of course, they were always in the minority and ordinary Ukrainians did not feel hostility toward the Russians.) But we know from history that the NSDAP also included only a minority of Germans)
And in 2014 another Orange Revolution. And it became clear that the Donbass and Crimea do not support it. And in Crimea, the base of the Black Sea Fleet, which the new government was going to kick out (there was even a special website with a time counter).
Therefore, the motives for the annexation of Crimea are quite understandable, especially since there was support from the Crimean population on this issue. (70% of Ukraine's military in Crimea switched to the Russian forces after the annexation)
As for Donbass - there is a very convoluted story there - initially the uprising was led by the Oplot bloc - which was sponsored by the Ukrainian oligarch Renat Akhmetov. Strelkov's entry into the Donbass was some kind of amateurism at all. There were only a little more than a dozen of them initially. So my opinion is that the original events in the Donbass were more for internal reasons. And everything ended with the Minsk agreements - under which Russia carefully wanted to return the regions under Ukrainian control (with certain guarantees and rights for the population of Donbass) - because a significant part of the elites did not want conflict with the West, and rubbed the sweet life

And sole the Minsk agreements and the status quo - the West began large deliveries of weapons (defensive weapons first, mostly) and training of the Ukrainian army.
Recall. Both Oland and Merkel, as well as Ukrainian politicians recently (half a year ago) confirmed that the Minsk agreements were an attempt to buy time to restore Ukraine's defense capabilities. And to resolve the territorial issue by force (how else could it be, if Russia accepted Crimea into its composition and did not want to discuss the status of Crimea).

So. The bottom line.
Putin is to blame for failing politically to achieve Ukraine's neutral status and unleashing a war as a result. The West is to blame for not giving a damn about Russia's concerns about Ukraine's status and for actively dragging the country into NATO. And actively pumped the country with weapons (the EU Peace Foundation is engaged in supplying weapons to Ukraine - Orwell would have been pleased).

UPD. I forgot to add news. Vagnres claim for military Ukrainian losses in Bahmut

Let me just say one thing about that pile of crap: every sovereign country has the right to decide and enter alliances, whether military or economic, on its own without interference of other countries. If Ukraine wants to join NATO or EU, it's free to ask for membership and work toward it, and Russia has no right to interfere.

 

[Verbose]

Its all about waging war to get more motivation for soldiers. Russia has never been aimed at destroying Ukrainians because of their independence. It's all about NATO expansion to the east. (in Putins opinion, иге we dont know what can be happen, if Ukrain join NATO (and Poroshenko's government introduced such a clause to the country's constitution (Euro-Atlantic course))
Munih Putin's speech

Ukrainian nationalism began its rapid development in the 80-90s, and after the collapse of the USSR it accelerated (as in all former Soviet republics, which is generally normal, if it goes in a controlled direction). Threat to Crimeans russian ppl from 1992

After the Orange Revolution in 2005, nationalist groups gained even more support. (Although, of course, they were always in the minority and ordinary Ukrainians did not feel hostility toward the Russians.) But we know from history that the NSDAP also included only a minority of Germans)
And in 2014 another Orange Revolution. And it became clear that the Donbass and Crimea do not support it. And in Crimea, the base of the Black Sea Fleet, which the new government was going to kick out (there was even a special website with a time counter).
Therefore, the motives for the annexation of Crimea are quite understandable, especially since there was support from the Crimean population on this issue. (70% of Ukraine's military in Crimea switched to the Russian forces after the annexation)
As for Donbass - there is a very convoluted story there - initially the uprising was led by the Oplot bloc - which was sponsored by the Ukrainian oligarch Renat Akhmetov. Strelkov's entry into the Donbass was some kind of amateurism at all. There were only a little more than a dozen of them initially. So my opinion is that the original events in the Donbass were more for internal reasons. And everything ended with the Minsk agreements - under which Russia carefully wanted to return the regions under Ukrainian control (with certain guarantees and rights for the population of Donbass) - because a significant part of the elites did not want conflict with the West, and rubbed the sweet life

And sole the Minsk agreements and the status quo - the West began large deliveries of weapons (defensive weapons first, mostly) and training of the Ukrainian army.
Recall. Both Oland and Merkel, as well as Ukrainian politicians recently (half a year ago) confirmed that the Minsk agreements were an attempt to buy time to restore Ukraine's defense capabilities. And to resolve the territorial issue by force (how else could it be, if Russia accepted Crimea into its composition and did not want to discuss the status of Crimea).

So. The bottom line.
Putin is to blame for failing politically to achieve Ukraine's neutral status and unleashing a war as a result. The West is to blame for not giving a damn about Russia's concerns about Ukraine's status and for actively dragging the country into NATO. And actively pumped the country with weapons (the EU Peace Foundation is engaged in supplying weapons to Ukraine - Orwell would have been pleased).

UPD. I forgot to add news. Vagnres claim for military Ukrainian losses in Bahmut

It's just BS from Putin and the Russian government. The EU is a far bigger problem for the Russian government than NATO ever was. It's just that painting the EU as the boogeyman Russia fears would stretch credulity beyond breaking point.

 

[banzay13]

It's just BS from Putin and the Russian government. The EU is a far bigger problem for the Russian government than NATO ever was. It's just that painting the EU as the boogeyman Russia fears would stretch credulity beyond breaking point.

EU was biggest economic partner for Russia. The sell resources for tech and machinery. Especially Germany and Nitherlands. And still buying machines from Germany, but they made in China now) All big agriculture company moved open new production center in China

 

[banzay13]

Let me just say one thing about that pile of crap: every sovereign country has the right to decide and enter alliances, whether military or economic, on its own without interference of other countries. If Ukraine wants to join NATO or EU, it's free to ask for membership and work toward it, and Russia has no right to interfere.

As I said and post link to Putins Minuch speech, Russia had some doubts about NATO expansion.
The principle of indivisibility of security. You can check it here https://www.osce.org/mc/39569

And so I conclude - All parties did not show the will to hear the opponent

 

[banzay13]

There is no point to keep reading further than this, tovarish.

The wolf from Tambov (city name) is your tovarish (Russian proverb, from soviet old movie)

 

[Birdjaguar]

@banzay13 Welcome to Off Topic.

Most of our threads here are pretty loose, but in the Ukraine war ones, we do want to keep the focus on the current news and not wander off into the past or less relevant topics. Thanks.

 

[red_elk]

Greece and Hungary blocking new EU anti-Russian sanctions, demanding Ukraine to exclude their companies from list of "war sponsors".

Budapest and Athens have thrown a collective spanner in the works by linking their approval for the package to a separate thorny issue involving Ukraine. Kyiv has compiled a list of private companies it calls "war sponsors,” which includes a number of European companies.
The odd couple wants some of their companies struck off this list before they will agree to the sanctions package. While these issues normally aren’t linked, Hungary and Greece are using the sanctions package as political leverage to get their companies off Ukraine’s list.

This sparked tensions at a meeting of EU foreign ministers earlier this week, where German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock directly criticized Hungary, according to diplomats familiar with the exchange.

New sanctions against Russia stuck in limbo over Greek-Hungarian protest

Odd couple is holding back deal on new sanctions against Russia.

www.politico.eu

 

[keli]

Speculate away. I would actually like to see Lukashenka survive. Otherwise Russia may attempt to seize the country.

Bielorussia, oppositore: Lukashenko in condizioni critiche - Europa

"Ho avuto un adenovirus, non morirò, state tranquilli". Si era espresso così il 23 maggio il presidente bielorusso Alexander Lukashenko, cercando di mettere fine alle voci su una sua presunta malattia. (ANSA)

www.ansa.it

 

[keli]

Big win for the West. Russia receives less money for its oil exports and there's abundance on the markets, preventing Saudi to cartel efficiently.

WSJ News Exclusive | Saudi Arabia, Russia Ties Under Strain Over Oil-Production Cuts

Tensions are rising between Saudi Arabia and Russia as Moscow keeps pumping large volumes of cheaper crude into the market, undermining Riyadh’s efforts to bolster energy prices.

www.wsj.com

Tensions are rising between Saudi Arabia and Russia as Moscow keeps pumping huge volumes of cheaper crude into the market that is undermining Riyadh’s efforts to bolster energy prices, people familiar with the matter say.

Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, has expressed its anger to Russia for not following through fully on its pledge to throttle production in response to Western sanctions, the people said.

Saudi officials have complained to senior Russian officials and asked them to respect the agreed cuts, the people said.

 

[thetrooper]

Speculate away. I would actually like to see Lukashenka survive. Otherwise Russia may attempt to seize the country.

Bielorussia, oppositore: Lukashenko in condizioni critiche - Europa

"Ho avuto un adenovirus, non morirò, state tranquilli". Si era espresso così il 23 maggio il presidente bielorusso Alexander Lukashenko, cercando di mettere fine alle voci su una sua presunta malattia. (ANSA)

www.ansa.it

Synopsis? Did he make another trip and got sick again? My Italian is a bit rusty…

 

[Zardnaar]

Piece of horsehocky?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662237386808369154

Zaluzhny looks excellent to be dead.

Zombie da.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Big win for the West. Russia receives less money for its oil exports and there's abundance on the markets, preventing Saudi to cartel efficiently.

WSJ News Exclusive | Saudi Arabia, Russia Ties Under Strain Over Oil-Production Cuts

Tensions are rising between Saudi Arabia and Russia as Moscow keeps pumping large volumes of cheaper crude into the market, undermining Riyadh’s efforts to bolster energy prices.

www.wsj.com

Tensions are rising between Saudi Arabia and Russia as Moscow keeps pumping huge volumes of cheaper crude into the market that is undermining Riyadh’s efforts to bolster energy prices, people familiar with the matter say.

Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, has expressed its anger to Russia for not following through fully on its pledge to throttle production in response to Western sanctions, the people said.

Saudi officials have complained to senior Russian officials and asked them to respect the agreed cuts, the people said.

Full article:

Saudi Arabia, Russia Ties Under Strain Over Oil-Production Cuts​

Moscow is exporting cheaper crude, hurting Riyadh’s efforts to boost energy prices​

Tensions are rising between Saudi Arabia and Russia as Moscow keeps pumping huge volumes of cheaper crude into the market that is undermining Riyadh’s efforts to bolster energy prices, people familiar with the matter say.

Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, has expressed its anger to Russia for not following through fully on its pledge to throttle production in response to Western sanctions, the people said.

Saudi officials have complained to senior Russian officials and asked them to respect the agreed cuts, the people said. The friction is very apparent between the world’s two biggest oil producers ahead of a crucial meeting between members of OPEC and a group of Russia-led oil producers, collectively known as OPEC+, in Vienna on June 4, the people said. The cartel is set to decide on a production plan for the second half of the year amid growing concerns about a slowing global economy crimping energy demand.

Earlier this week, the Saudi energy minister issued a warning to oil speculators, signaling to the market that a further production cut was on the table amid worries over the latest buildup in short positions and Russia’s failure to meet its promised voluntary cuts. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin said oil prices were approaching “economically justified” levels, indicating that there might not be a need for an immediate change to the group’s production policy. The OPEC+ meeting comes after Saudi Arabia, Russia and other OPEC+ members in early April said they would reduce output in a move that was expected to prop up oil prices. Riyadh started cutting production this month. Moscow at the time said it would extend unilateral curbs that took effect in March to the end of the year.

Now, the latest available data indicates that Russia continues to pump large volumes of oil into the market, which has helped maximize income for its beleaguered economy but added to a global surplus, industry officials and traders say. Oil prices are down about 10% from where they stood in early April despite the Saudi-led intervention and sharply down from the highs they hit following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine early last year. Friday, Brent, the international oil contract, rose 0.9% to $76.95 a barrel.
It remains unclear if Saudi Arabia will take any immediate action that would affect the energy alliance with Russia. Frictions between Riyadh and Moscow aren’t new to OPEC+. In March 2020, oil prices collapsed after Saudi Arabia and Russia failed to agree on an emergency plan to address a supply glut. After the disagreement, Saudi Arabia embarked on a price war in an attempt to grab market share from Russia.

Saudi Arabia and Russia are allies in a broad effort by oil producers to prop up energy prices. It has drawn rebuke from the White House, which called the decision shortsighted and suggested OPEC+ was actively supporting Russia pay for its war in Ukraine. Yet beyond oil, their partnership has yielded little so far when it comes to security cooperation, trade or investment.

Last week, Saudi Arabia invited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to attend the annual Arab League summit as a special guest. The kingdom is one of the many countries offering to mediate an end to the war. It helped negotiate a high-profile prisoner swap last year between Russia and Ukraine and announced $400 million in humanitarian aid for Kyiv. The energy ministries of Saudi Arabia and Russia didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak issued a statement earlier this month saying Moscow was abiding by its voluntary pledge to cut oil output by 500,000 barrels a day from March until the end of the year. Moscow has said it would cut its oil output by around 5% after the Group of Seven imposed price caps on Russian oil and oil products. “Taking into account the unfounded speculation in the press regarding oil production levels, Russia reaffirms its full commitment to and implementation of voluntary oil production cut levels,” Novak said. Russia’s Energy Ministry in recent weeks has also reached out to trade publications to explain it had to delay shutting down some oil wells due to exceptionally freezing weather in parts of the country. The ministry said the country had still managed to cut 400,000 barrels a day in early May—close to the level it had pledged to curb, say people familiar with the matter.

Last week, it also pressed secondary sources to alter their estimates of its oil production, but the agencies rebuffed the requests, these people said. There is no specific requirement that Russia accurately report its production but the discrepancy adds to tensions within OPEC+ over whether to cut output further. Western sanctions on Russian fossil fuels are accelerating the shift in global energy flows, with China and India increasingly taking advantage of Russian oil discounts and Middle Eastern suppliers redirecting their crude to Europe.

In March, Russia surpassed Saudi Arabia as China’s top oil supplier, while last month India’s imports of Russian oil exceeded combined flows from Saudi Arabia and Iraq for the first time ever, according to data from Vortexa, a data-commodity company.
Saudi officials and other people familiar with Saudi oil policy say Riyadh is under pressure to maintain higher oil prices with its budget requiring an estimated $81 a barrel—about $5 more than current levels. The kingdom needs to pay for massive development projects at home, some of which are so big that the Saudis call them gigaprojects. These include a Red Sea resort the size of Belgium with Maldives-style hotels hovering above the water and a $500 billion futuristic, high-tech city in the desert that is 33 times bigger than New York City.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto Saudi ruler, is halfway through an ambitious plan to use his country’s gusher of oil revenue to transform its economy, rework its physical landscape and upend its conservative culture. As prices hit $100 a barrel last year following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the kingdom accelerated those efforts, which are financed largely by the $650 billion sovereign-wealth fund chaired by Mohammed. In recent months, Saudi economic advisers have privately warned senior policy makers that the kingdom needs elevated oil prices for the next five years to keep spending billions of dollars on projects that have so far attracted meager investment from abroad.

Write to Summer Said at summer.said@wsj.com and Benoit Faucon at benoit.faucon@wsj.com

 

[Kyriakos]

Greece and Hungary blocking new EU anti-Russian sanctions, demanding Ukraine to exclude their companies from list of "war sponsors".

Budapest and Athens have thrown a collective spanner in the works by linking their approval for the package to a separate thorny issue involving Ukraine. Kyiv has compiled a list of private companies it calls "war sponsors,” which includes a number of European companies.
The odd couple wants some of their companies struck off this list before they will agree to the sanctions package. While these issues normally aren’t linked, Hungary and Greece are using the sanctions package as political leverage to get their companies off Ukraine’s list.

This sparked tensions at a meeting of EU foreign ministers earlier this week, where German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock directly criticized Hungary, according to diplomats familiar with the exchange.

New sanctions against Russia stuck in limbo over Greek-Hungarian protest

Odd couple is holding back deal on new sanctions against Russia.

www.politico.eu

I read that (for this government) it's about protecting the tanker owners. But the list by Ukraine includes many other european companies, some of which just do business in Russia (haven't left the country). For example, the french cosmetic giant, Yves Rocher. There is also at least one US company on that list.
Seems to just be poor diplomacy by Ukraine; you can't bite the hand that feeds you. I suspect they will just remove all euro companies from that list, if they know what's good for them.

More dangerous (again for Ukraine) is the idea that new euro sanctions can apply to China, to prevent it (and others) to buy some euro goods and then resell them to Russia. Not many in the Eu want a trade war with China.

 

[REDY]

I read that (for this government) it's about protecting the tanker owners. But the list by Ukraine includes many other european companies, some of which just do business in Russia (haven't left the country). For example, the french cosmetic giant, Yves Rocher. There is also at least one US company on that list.
Seems to just be poor diplomacy by Ukraine; you can't bite the hand that feeds you. I suspect they will just remove all euro companies from that list, if they know what's good for them.

More dangerous (again for Ukraine) is the idea that new euro sanctions can apply to China, to prevent it (and others) to buy some euro goods and then resell them to Russia. Not many in the Eu want a trade war with China.

Its a poor Greek and Hungarian diplomacy. How do the companies feed Ukraine can be perhaps explained?
But they clearly feed Russians.
The logical step would be taxing them from all money going to Russia and finance from it victims of Russians. And this of course should apply to all, except important medicines and such.
The potential trade war is much less frightening than real war. If the companies would leave our market to stay in Russia, it would be a good riddance.

 

[Kyriakos]

Its a poor Greek and Hungarian diplomacy. How do the companies feed Ukraine can be perhaps explained?
But they clearly feed Russians.
The logical step would be taxing them from all money going to Russia and finance from it victims of Russians. And this of course should apply to all, except important medicines and such.
The potential trade war is much less frightening than real war. If the companies would leave our market to stay in Russia, it would be a good riddance.

The tanker owners will just leave if taxed. They only superficially are part of the greek industry. You may have the rare "patriot" here and there, but their vast majority is just in it for themselves and would relocate to any tax haven.
That said, it's rather obvious that Greece/Hungary merely serve as the conspicuous but misleading frontline; if it actually was possible to have those anti-euro-company sanctions go forward, you'd see Germany-France-Italy etc outright block the move.
Re your view of trade war with China, I think you overestimate the attitude of the non-slav and non-baltic countries regarding prioritizing harming Russia (if it comes with alienating China too). Not all Eu members were traumatized by being part of the soviet block or being in Finlandisation (in fact zero of them before the 2004 expansion).

 

[REDY]

The tanker owners will just leave if taxed. They only superficially are part of the greek industry. You may have the rare "patriot" here and there, but their vast majority is just in it for themselves and would relocate to any tax haven.
That said, it's rather obvious that Greece/Hungary merely serve as the conspicuous but misleading frontline; if it actually was possible to have those anti-euro-company sanctions go forward, you'd see Germany-France-Italy etc outright block the move.
Re your view of trade war with China, I think you overestimate the attitude of the non-slav and non-baltic countries regarding prioritizing harming Russia (if it comes with alienating China too). Not all Eu members were traumatized by being part of the soviet block or being in Finlandisation (in fact zero of them before the 2004 expansion).

Of course I know that there is corruption, company lobby and such. I just do not see why to support it. The companies clearly belong to the list.

 

[Kyriakos]

Of course I know that there is corruption, company lobby and such. I just do not see why to support it. The companies clearly belong to the list.

As a private citizen, I don't care about the companies. But it does strike me as a very simple-minded and potentially dangerous move by Ukraine to act as if it can strongarm Eu govs to sanction some of their own companies.
Besides, at least the tanker thing, will never happen. The same people pretty much move everything from Russia/Eu to China. That it won't happen is also obvious from the very fact the beyond servile prime minister we have, was so quick to make it clear he will veto.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Saudi Arabia, Russia Ties Under Strain Over Oil-Production Cuts

Iam shocked SHOCKED that Russia would break their promises and OPEC agreement
Venezula also did this once in the past, so its not unprecedented, Russias reputation such as it is sinks lower

 

[saamohod]

A record number of kamikaze drones were launched from Russia last night. 52 out of 54 were successfully shot down, most of them over Kyiv oblast. One civilian reported killed and several wounded.

Largest Russian attack with Shahed UAVs: Air defence systems destroyed 52 drones

On the night of 27-28 May, Russia launched the most massive Iranian kamikaze drone attack on Ukraine: the Russians fired 54 loitering munitions, and Ukraineâs air defence forces destroyed 52 of them.

www.pravda.com.ua

 

[red_elk]

Shelling in Russian regions bordering Ukraine killed two people on Saturday, regional authorities said.
The regional governor of Belgorod said there were fresh attacks, a day after dozens of strikes.
"One person was killed. He was a security guard...he was outside at the time of the shelling" in the Shebekino area, Vyacheslav Gladkov said.
He said others were wounded, including a 15- and 17-year-old.

Two Killed in Shelling in Russian Border Regions – Officials - The Moscow Times

Shelling in Russian regions bordering Ukraine killed two people on Saturday, regional authorities said. The regional governor of Belgorod said there were fresh attacks, a day after dozens of strikes.

www.themoscowtimes.com