And such an accusation is insane.
Scientists in Italy go on trial for failing to predict earthquake
- Thread starter Disgustipated
- Start date
And such an accusation is insane.
LucyDuke
staring at the clock
Italian here.
Fox news tell *******.
Enzo Boschi ( and 7 more "experts" ) were called at Aquila to do a estimate about possibile big earthquakes due to a rise of the usual seismic activity.
They said it was all ok.
And guess what happened not even a week after...?
Spoiler :
Those dudes aren't freelancers, they are in a state commission with the precise duty to analize and alarm about natural disasters...
It was all okay. Maybe try them for not recognizing that the Italian public would need the very basic reality of "earthquake predicting is NOT reliable and ANY quake is ALWAYS possible ANYWHERE" spelled out to them. Or try the Italian public.
ZeletDude
The Lion
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It's sure close enough to be!
LucyDuke
staring at the clock
Or that when asked for a prediction, it would be excessively cautious, to the point of jading the public with evacuations and so forth.
And then be sued again, when the earthquake came the one time they did not advise an evacuation.
No, the only sane answer would be "No comment".
gangleri2001
Garbage day!!!
aelf
Ashen One
ZeletDude
The Lion
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Italy IS in northern Africa (only sompe parts of it though)
There's the proof right there
BasketCase
Username sez it all
Taking this whole thing straight-faced, with not a hint of humor: this is pretty much our own fault.
Most people (yes, including people in CFC) have unrealistic expectations of science. I call it Tricorder Syndrome. There's this delusion that we can simply point a tricorder at something and know everything there is to know about it. We can't. Yes, our ability to find stuff out is better than it's ever been, but it's still far from perfect. Our satellite photos aren't good enough to see if those are folded stretchers or rockets being carried in a Palestinian ambulance; our analyses aren't good enough to be sure if those were actually bits of thermite found at the 9/11 site, or just chunks of aluminum and rusted iron from the destroyed buildings; we can't scan George Bush's brain to figure out if he was actually lying about Iraq's WMD (for the record, he wasn't--Bush was lied to by Curveball, who recently confessed to lying about it in order to bring down Saddam's regime); we don't know if Curveball was telling the truth when he "confessed" to lying about Saddam's WMD (maybe Curveball got waterboarded?) and we still can't find Jimmy Hoffa's corpse.
Keep the above in mind for later use, folks. Science isn't perfect. Don't expect it to be.
Most people (yes, including people in CFC) have unrealistic expectations of science. I call it Tricorder Syndrome. There's this delusion that we can simply point a tricorder at something and know everything there is to know about it. We can't. Yes, our ability to find stuff out is better than it's ever been, but it's still far from perfect. Our satellite photos aren't good enough to see if those are folded stretchers or rockets being carried in a Palestinian ambulance; our analyses aren't good enough to be sure if those were actually bits of thermite found at the 9/11 site, or just chunks of aluminum and rusted iron from the destroyed buildings; we can't scan George Bush's brain to figure out if he was actually lying about Iraq's WMD (for the record, he wasn't--Bush was lied to by Curveball, who recently confessed to lying about it in order to bring down Saddam's regime); we don't know if Curveball was telling the truth when he "confessed" to lying about Saddam's WMD (maybe Curveball got waterboarded?) and we still can't find Jimmy Hoffa's corpse.
Keep the above in mind for later use, folks. Science isn't perfect. Don't expect it to be.
Yeah, sure...
Even so, why they didn't say so? It was a precise duty.
They are at fault no matter what.
Be it for ignoring danger or be it just for accepting such a job. ( e very well paid governement job )
No, it's called "there's people who say they can do it but then refuse to take responsability".
Yeah, sure...
Even so, why they didn't say so? It was a precise duty.
They are at fault no matter what.
Be it for ignoring danger or be it just for accepting such a job. ( e very well paid governement job )
No, it's called "there's people who say they can do it but then refuse to take responsability".
What is wrong with you? Are you so angry because you lost someone in this quake or something? People make mistakes all the time. That doesn't always mean they should go to jail for it.
So far, there is nothing to suggest that these scientists didn't do everything they could possibly do to gather accurate data and make a good assessment of the situation. As it turns out, they were wrong and people died, but people should not be punished simply because they were wrong.
I have been in that same situation where my analyses meant life or death. Sometimes I was wrong and yeah people got hurt and sometimes killed. Should I be punished or sent to jail because of this? No I shouldn't because I did the best I could with the resources I had. Stop looking for someone to blame for tragedies, sometimes there's just no one to blame. It makes no sense to ruin these people's lives just so you (not you specifically, but the Italian people) can get some false sense of justice.
Yeah, sure...
Even so, why they didn't say so? It was a precise duty.
They are at fault no matter what.
Be it for ignoring danger or be it just for accepting such a job. ( e very well paid governement job )
No, it's called "there's people who say they can do it but then refuse to take responsability".
It's a precise duty? I expect that type of talk from mad dictators or North Korea. It's little wonder Italy is a joke to Europeans.
If you want to be angry at someone, be angry at lawmakers for not requiring old buildings to be brought up to modern codes. Seismologists can't predict when an earthquake will hit, and no reputable one has ever stated otherwise. But they do predict the likelihood of a quake in a region, and the strength of the quake. By the accounts given in this thread, the guys facing trial did say a quake would happen in central Italy, eventually. If you're upset, be mad at people who allowed ancient houses without adequate construction / reinforcing be lived in.
But no, you're mad that basically someone wasn't psychic.
I think an early poster had it right. Some of the government officials are looking for a skapegoat, assuming this will make them more popular with the people. Outrageous, yes, but a lot of people will eat this up that this/that official is really doing something. Now it will turn into a political football it Italy.
Few people went broke underestimating the intelligence of the public. I think about 15-20% of the U.S. public thinks Obama is Muslim. I'm not a big fan of Obama, but that's ridiculous as well. We joke about stupidity of the public in the U.S. but it's really a worldwide problem.
Few people went broke underestimating the intelligence of the public. I think about 15-20% of the U.S. public thinks Obama is Muslim. I'm not a big fan of Obama, but that's ridiculous as well. We joke about stupidity of the public in the U.S. but it's really a worldwide problem.
JtheJackal
Emperor
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I imagine some fault belongs to pseudoscientists who make unverified claims and the media who report scientific claims without criticism. This has created a confused atmosphere in the gneral public (at least in Italy) about how predictable earthquakes are.
This is the country that had people leaving Rome because some rumor some guy predicted 30 years ago the city would be destroyed by an earthquake earlier this month..
This is the country that had people leaving Rome because some rumor some guy predicted 30 years ago the city would be destroyed by an earthquake earlier this month..
Stupidity among a population is universal, sure. I hold government to a slightly higher standard.
LucyDuke
staring at the clock
Yeah, sure...
Even so, why they didn't say so? It was a precise duty.
They are at fault no matter what.
Be it for ignoring danger or be it just for accepting such a job. ( e very well paid governement job )
No, it's called "there's people who say they can do it but then refuse to take responsability".
All I'm taking away from this is that the Italian government needs some remedial science education. It's absolutely foolish to expect what was apparently expected from these seismologists.
Disgustipated
Deity
Earthquakes cannot be predicted. They keep saying Southern California is due for a big one, but they have no idea when.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/italy/gshap.php
Notice the big red blob in the middle of Italy? That's where science says earthquakes are most likely. And where did that earthquake happen? In the middle of that red blob.
So the earthquake occurred where one was expected. Anything else, especially the question when that earthquake would happen was impossible for those scientists to determine.
If you live in an area with a high risk of earthquakes, you cannot blame the scientists when the earthquakes they say would happen do happen.
This trial really is a disgrace.
Terxpahseyton
Nobody
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No. It is just the US and Italy.
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