Turkish Daily News
7 January 2007
GATHERING STORM
ANKARA – Nobody likes the almost anarchic lack of proper administration of the country around the election times. This year, being a double-election year, is not at all promising. Watching the increasingly hostile statements between the powers at play is not dissimilar to watching a gathering of storm clouds.
First, the presidential elections will be held in May. It is still not clear who will the candidates be, but the widespread assumption is that governing Justice & Development Party will try to consolidate power by nominating, and eventually electing a senior figure among its ranks.
This idea is scorned upon not only by the opposing Republican People’s Party, but also more than half of the citizens, as well as the Army. In 2002, by what political analysts consider an arithmethic accident, JDP gained more than two-thirds of the parliamentary seats with only 34% of the electoral votes. The institution of Presidency in Turkey is viewed as the legal protector of the deep tradition of secularism. The president is elected by the parliament, not popular vote, so JDP’s majority in the parliament means they might determine who will it be. Of course, RPP parliamentarians can postpone the election multiple times by repeatedly not attending it, which will in turn cause early election for the parliament.
If the next president comes from a party with religious roots, such as JDP, things may easily spiral down to a crisis. In that case, some people predict not much will happen, as JDP is not so naïve to take any drastic action that would anger the citizens. Another prediction is that the Constitutional Court will nullify the presidential election, therefore forcing a parliamentary election. In the worst case scenario, some people expect a response from the unofficial-but-actual protectors of secularism: the Army. A coup in Turkey, possibly with popular support, is not out of the ordinary, as there has been one every decade since 1960’s.
To complicate matters further, the parliamentary elections will be in November, with a new election system that removes some of the disadvantage of the smaller parties. A lot of things (several party leaders, EU approval, people’s opinions about JDP, election system) have changed since 2002. And in Turkey no election was predictable in the past couple of decades. This election will be even less so.
As November approaches, public polls will start to give some inkling of the results of November elections. But for now, all eyes are focused on what JDP will do about Presidency.