Superpowers of the next century!

[Fo0dman]

i dont know about china, because the US is the reason that it is growing. if the US falls most of the contries that trade a lot with the US will decline to, like china and india. and for me i do not want America to fall.

 

[Rossiya]

From Neo Hitler's fine template:

Probably:
*USA

Possibly:
*UK
*China

Probably not but has a slim chance:
*Russia
*India
*France
*Germany
*Brazil
*Iran

 

[Mirc]

Demographically, culturally, histrocially and even religiously as it was pointed out, African peoples are well-positioned to submit Europe within the century. At least Western Europe. No one has commented my post and the fact, obvious to me, that a civilization is going to finally disappear sooner that most think. It is highly predictable that Europe will again divide in 2, again West vs East (roughly), this time the East being the only part faithfull to its origins and civilization while the west will be under always increasing influence of Africa, and islam. I do not believe any resistance to such trend will succeed, though they will happen.

Do you base this opinion on anything?

 

[St Exupère]

Do you base this opinion on anything?

Yes: a close look at the evolution of the youth, as well as "popular culture", in particular in a country such as France and to some extent Belgium, Holland, Germany. They lead the trend, I see no reason other Western European countries will not follow - the UK being a different case altogether. Unless there is a major shift in History (basically a war and/or a regime change), such trend will naturally and much quicker than most think, bend Western European sovereignity towards Africa. The main legal tool that will enable this is dual-citizenship between both continents, which is becoming increasingly common to the advantage of Africa.

 

[Rossiya]

The main legal tool that will enable this is dual-citizenship between both continents, which is becoming increasingly common to the advantage of Africa.

As a Frenchman would know...

 

[St Exupère]

As a Frenchman would know...

Hey, I am not trying to be particularly vindicative here but merely to put forward a fact that the destinies of Western Europe and Africa are now tied, will be more and more, and probably towards the advantage of African culture and Nations because this trend is rather one-sided. This will have major geopolitical implications, one of which could be the rise of African Nations; I have noticed that few anticipate this - especially in North America and Eastern Europe. That's all I am saying and I am not commenting on this fact - though I have my own opinions about it.

 

[Rossiya]

Hey, I am not trying to be particularly vindicative here but merely to put forward a fact that the destinies of Western Europe and Africa are now tied, will be more and more, and probably towards the advantage of African culture and Nations because this trend is rather one-sided. This will have major geopolitical implications, one of which could be the rise of African Nations; I have noticed that few anticipate this - especially in North America and Eastern Europe. That's all I am saying and I am not commenting on this fact - though I have my own opinions about it.

One thing I have got to say about Africa and the future: I believe that the Sahara Desert will become much more of a positive aspect to the countries that have territory in that expanse of land. I think the land is too large to be held as insignificant forever.

 

[Clausewitzian]

That doesn't make any sense.

At the very best, you're talking about an increase in North African culture in many west european nations. So?

 

[Rossiya]

That doesn't make any sense.

At the very best, you're talking about an increase in North African culture in many west european nations. So?

What makes no sense?

 

[St Exupère]

At the very best, you're talking about an increase in North African culture in many west european nations. So?

No: first it is not only about North Africa but maybe even more so sub-saharan Africa; the largest migrations towards Europe are now from there, and demography trends are extremely high there, average in North Africa and extremely low in Europe. Sub-saharan African migrations to Europe (and maybe to North Africa itself!) will not only increase, they will explode. This is mathematical. Second, I am talking as in all cases of cultures penetrating rather peacefully another civlization, of conversions to such more dynamic cultures, especially since inter-mariages are booming. Conversions that can have many aspects (from religion to less radical shifts) but that will, on a mid-term, radically change the face of Western Europe. This has already started, for those that can see, but it suprises me still how so few notice.

 

[aelf]

Any cultural change is alright as long it doesn't lead to more extremism and foolishness. But maybe I'm dreaming.

 

[St Exupère]

Any cultural change is alright as long it doesn't lead to more extremism and foolishness. But maybe I'm dreaming.

Whether a "cultural change" is "alright" is purely a subjective point of view; however such change is never neutral and always profound, with durable influences on both the societey and its individuals, and geopolitics at large. And as far as one can be objective about it, it will always benefit more to some than to others, since such change is never unanimously praised, accepted or welcomed - even when it happens more or less peacefully. There is always a "loser", so to speak.

 

[aelf]

Whether a "cultural change" is "alright" is purely a subjective point of view; however such change is never neutral and always profound, with durable influences on both the societey and its individuals, and geopolitics at large. And as far as one can be objective about it, it will always benefit more to some than to others, since such change is never unanimously praised, accepted or welcomed - even when it happens more or less peacefully. There is always a "loser", so to speak.

Yeah, that's a fact of life. But if the winner brings more discord and reverses human progress, that is very unfortunate.

 

[scy12]

African people will not submit Europe , though there may be some few riots , no Europe will (Had) Submit Africans which will now be Europeans. And here is a small solution to the aging problem , sooner or less , immigration though may need a few generations before some become Full citizens in belief also.

Though there may be some problems it can also be advantageous for a European country.

The way i see it , Europe will enjoy a quite hegemony over the following years. The only thorns over that may be conflicting interests over Turkey , Ex Russia influence countries , the middle east and Usa puppets. Mainly, because Europe doesn't act Globally with military expedition as one unlike Usa and it's allies. Therefor Usa can annex trading parters of Eu countries and Eu can do nothing than bark. However , the strongest economy , doesn't depend on military domination . And so even if peaceful hegemony could be a fact Turkey is a thorn that may bite many in the ass. The unreliability of this country forces me to label it as a potential danger to all it's neighbors.

Considering each "countries " past and it's today actions it is easier for EU to buy from Middle East and easier for Usa to destroy Regimes that won't Trade with them . I am uncertain which strategy would be more efficient in the Long Run.

And China , they are a completely different kind of power than the other ones.

 

[St Exupère]

Yeah, that's a fact of life. But if the winner brings more discord and reverses human progress, that is very unfortunate.

1/ at first, such a change always brings discord and disunity, which can and often does lead to violence and/or deep political recomposition such as territorial partitions (but not always)
2/ asserting such a thing as "human progress" is completely subjective and basically every "civilization", or independant school of thought, will have different opinions/answers on what it means
3/ when everyone on the planet agrees on what "human progress" means, then there will be only one civilization, and one Nation, left - to speak in civ terms; this also could happen more quikcly than most think, see scenario 1 above...

 

[St Exupère]

African people will not submit Europe , though there may be some few riots , no Europe will (Had) Submit Africans which will now be Europeans. And here is a small solution to the aging problem , sooner or less , immigration though may need a few generations before some become Full citizens in belief also.

Let's not confuse citizenship with nationality, economic sphere of influence with cultural/social sphere of influence. Yes African migrants into Europe are European citizens and yes, on puely economical terms, this can be a huge benefit. Yet the cultural, social changes these new ctizens are bringing along will have impacts, influences and consequences beyond what most imagine. A close look at a country like France or Belgium can give some idea, but I guarantee that it will be more and more spectacular in the future. The geopolitical implications will be both immense and distabilizing. For example in 50 years time, current trends remaining "equal", an average French citizen if such a Nation still exists will feel culturally much more related to Mali or Algeria than Poland or Ireland. Political implications of this will be huge.

For instance, I believe the EU will not survive much longer as (the embryo of) a political entity. At best, it will remain an economic trade zone that will continue to expand east and south. All those thinking of the EU as a major geopolitical force will, IMO, be proved completely wrong. Geopolitically the EU might have as little relevance as the Hanseatic League used to, or as ASEAN has today; its destiny is to split I believe, for it is weak and more and more diverse.

On Turkey you are very right: it is a key country, and a strong one. It can either go back towards one form or another of European domination (which can maybe be peacefully achieved, and which is in line with its historical goal) or turn towards the islamic world, turn its back to the West and lead at least the sunni part of islam in a geopolitcal way - which has also been, at least partly, its historical goal. This decision should be taken soon and I believe it will be the 1st, whatever some members of the EU might say about it.

 

[scy12]

Let's not confuse citizenship with nationality, economic sphere of influence with cultural/social sphere of influence. Yes African migrants into Europe are European citizens and yes, on puely economical terms, this can be a huge benefit. Yet the cultural, social changes these new ctizens are bringing along will have impacts, influences and consequences beyond what most imagine. A close look at a country like France or Belgium can give some idea, but I guarantee that it will be more and more spectacular in the future. The geopolitical implications will be both immense and distabilizing. For example in 50 years time, current trends remaining "equal", an average French citizen if such a Nation still exists will feel culturally much more related to Mali or Algeria than Poland or Ireland. Political implications of this will be huge.

For instance, I believe the EU will not survive much longer as (the embryo of) a political entity. At best, it will remain an economic trade zone that will continue to expand east and south. All those thinking of the EU as a major geopolitical force will, IMO, be proved completely wrong. Geopolitically the EU might have as little relevance as the Hanseatic League used to, or as ASEAN has today; its destiny is to split I believe, for it is weak and more and more diverse.

On Turkey you are very right: it is a key country, and a strong one. It can either go back towards one form or another of European domination (which can maybe be peacefully achieved, and which is in line with its historical goal) or turn towards the islamic world, turn its back to the West and lead at least the sunni part of islam in a geopolitcal way - which has also been, at least partly, its historical goal. This decision should be taken soon and I believe it will be the 1st, whatever some members of the EU might say about it.

Let's not confuse citizenship with nationality, economic sphere of influence with cultural/social sphere of influence. Yes African migrants into Europe are European citizens and yes, on puely economical terms, this can be a huge benefit. Yet the cultural, social changes these new ctizens are bringing along will have impacts, influences and consequences beyond what most imagine. A close look at a country like France or Belgium can give some idea, but I guarantee that it will be more and more spectacular in the future. The geopolitical implications will be both immense and distabilizing. For example in 50 years time, current trends remaining "equal", an average French citizen if such a Nation still exists will feel culturally much more related to Mali or Algeria than Poland or Ireland. Political implications of this will be huge.

Either i am underestimating the cultural significance of African immigration or you are overestimating it . Actually i believe , by having a good interpreting system , African immigrants can blend with French/English /add , on cultural levels also.

The problem is only there when the interpreting system is problematic. Maybe in France for political reasons they support those riots and the African identiy. Maybe Royal party. But i think it is an achievable process to interpret slowly immigrants to a new culture . Given enough Educat ... Brainwashing everything is achievable.

So i agree there may be some danger for destabilization but i don't think it is so evident.

For instance, I believe the EU will not survive much longer as (the embryo of) a political entity. At best, it will remain an economic trade zone that will continue to expand east and south. All those thinking of the EU as a major geopolitical force will, IMO, be proved completely wrong. Geopolitically the EU might have as little relevance as the Hanseatic League used to, or as ASEAN has today; its destiny is to split I believe, for it is weak and more and more diverse.

Geopolitically Eu is very powerful unless you don't count Trading and Economic power as a Globalization and control parameter. I agree that militarilly Eu will not " ever" act as one , economically , Politically and as a Global government though it is is a different story. The one currency , Global and Political realities of Eu , and so on will lead more and more countries to enter the Eu axon as i call it. Trade is only going to get better based on the patronage of Eu. Also you are underestimating Eu ability to control ,threaten and integrate other countries into it's system. The benefits are so many that i don't see Eu "ever" being disbanded or losing it's place. What many fear is lack of Progress , however if Eu evolved so much in so little time it is possible it will evolve more in the future. When we see middle east countries to start selling Oil in Euros than Dollars , then we see Eu as a taking direct benefit and influencing the Global policy of each country.
There are thorns , but they are thorns. Money makes the world go around and if it works at making money it will continue to exist as it does.

On Turkey you are very right: it is a key country, and a strong one. It can either go back towards one form or another of European domination (which can maybe be peacefully achieved, and which is in line with its historical goal) or turn towards the islamic world, turn its back to the West and lead at least the sunni part of islam in a geopolitcal way - which has also been, at least partly, its historical goal. This decision should be taken soon and I believe it will be the 1st, whatever some members of the EU might say about it

While i understand all your positions on this country , i will never accept the 1st for National , for Political and humanitarian reasons. While 50% of my country is controlled by Turkey troops since 1974 when they invaded , i can't even bother to look at any Eu interests. What Eu is trying to do but can't decide as an entity , is to enter Turkey into a long series of talks and take control of the country's trade routes , and use a potential good market. However Eu doesn't wish Turkey to become a full member. What i called as Thorns do.

In this case my cause could also be seen as a thorn to Eu global policies so the term thorn doesn't correspond to any moral relative word but only if it is a problem to Europian Union domination.

 

[Steph]

That's funny, St Exupère is supposed to live 86 km from me, but reading him I have the feeling he is from another planet.

 

[St Exupère]

That's funny, St Exupère is supposed to live 86 km from me, but reading him I have the feeling he is from another planet.

Salut voisin! so what is so "from another planet" about the potential scenario described here?

 

[Mirc]

That's funny, St Exupère is supposed to live 86 km from me, but reading him I have the feeling he is from another planet.

Me too, though he lives much farther (1972.5 km) from me.