Superpowers of the next century!

[Steph]

I agree; but France almost certainly would not act alone, without consulting at least the German government. While France wields some power - both politically and militarily - in its former African colonies, mostly, the French government seems to know the wisdom of consulting with allies concerning important geopolitical decisions. I don't think France would embark on a nearly unilateral adventure like the War in Iraq on its own.

We won't make large intervention like in Iraq alone. But we can do regional ones (like in Ivory Coast). We did this with the backing of EU and UHN, to get as much legitimacy as possible.
But for a specific situation, the French president can send the French army on his own decision if needed. It doesn't mean he'll do that, but in case of emergency he has the power to do it.

 

[steveedster]

I think the 3 main 'superpowers' will be...

USA
China
EU

USA will remain strong, China is an obvious choice due to many facts what everyone here is aware of. The EU is technically very very advanced, I feel that in say 50 years they will probably have a unified force, and as such will have great ability to project its powers where needed. This force I believe will be a little more complex, with each nation contributing for agreed peacekeeping etc. However the EU does need political reform so it can take descisions in a more unified manor, this I fell will also come with time. And despite tit for tat disagreements the EU will still be culturally very much one and the same as the US and they will have a very strong Atlantic allience.

 

[aelf]

I think the 3 main 'superpowers' will be...

USA
China
EU

USA will remain strong, China is an obvious choice due to many facts what everyone here is aware of. The EU is technically very very advanced, I feel that in say 50 years they will probably have a unified force, and as such will have great ability to project its powers where needed. This force I believe will be a little more complex, with each nation contributing for agreed peacekeeping etc. However the EU does need political reform so it can take descisions in a more unified manor, this I fell will also come with time. And despite tit for tat disagreements the EU will still be culturally very much one and the same as the US and they will have a very strong Atlantic allience.

Sounds like your list could be modified:

Oceania
Eurasia
Eastasia

Only Russia seems to be slacking off, making the 2nd less possible. Time to buck up, Russia!

 

[West 36]

Sounds like your list could be modified:

Oceania
Eurasia
Eastasia

Only Russia seems to be slacking off, making the 2nd less possible. Time to buck up, Russia!

Exactly! I said so early, in other words.

 

[qwert]

The US may be begining its decline now (I hope not i don´t want to be ruled by comunist China or Gas producing Russia). If they wan´t to avoid it they have to take some very serious problems and solve them. The first one is the increasing rising of religious and political fundamentalism, which could have on the long time a big impact on the economic and scientific levels of the US, this would lead to the loss of military power, not to speak of the growing bad reputation that the US is adquiring on the World. Other Problems they need to solve are education (begin by ending the evolution debate to go away from fundamentalism), enviroment, economic competivity(still one of the highest in the world but has begun to decrease), social welfare programs (medical treatment has to reach more people), science (stem cell research should definitely be alowed) and public deficit (begin by reducing Defence spending).

EU is today the biggest econmic power, but it suffers from an excessively interventionistic state that limits its grow and is surely going to made it lose this position against China and the US. Diplomatically and militarily they are weak because they are multiple diferent countries for the outside World.

China is going to be the biggest or the second biggest economic power in wery short time (50 years) but they still have to solve the problem of lack of liberties which can cause great inestability and lack of development outside the special economic areas. They also have to begin to adapt to a more competitive high-tech economy and to reduce their damage to the environment.

India may probably surpass China sometime. Mostly because it is jumping directly to a high tech economy. Some of their most important industries today are computer services and pharmaceutical companies. Their great problems are again inequal development like in china, enviromental problems and the low level of basic infastructures and services.

Russia seems like a temporal great player, mostly thanks to its energy resources. Their power will sink as soon as the world moves to other energy sources, but if they invest their money well, they could improve their economy.

Japan seems provably to maintain its status as great economic power and doesnt seem to be facing any great change. They have done a really great job for reaching this stability.

 

[Clausewitzian]

China's political woes are much greater than most people here seem to think. The centralized government and the regional governments are starting to come unstuck while an amazing level of corruption is to be found at all levels. And nobody there likes communism much to start with. I forsee China overheating in a most amazing way.

Nothing about Africa inspires any confidence in me, superpower wise. Takes more than resources to become a superpower.

The US is heading downhill, but slowly, it'll be awhile before anyone can go toe to toe with em.

East European countries that have joined the EU are rearing to go. Europe's economic influence can only go up. As for the EU becoming more unified, yeah, right.

Hard to tell where Russia is heading, but they do love to blackmail in natural resources, and have europe by the balls there.

India seems to have nowhere to go but up. Up being a regional superpower.

But the future is going to be dominated by climate change, and massive population displacements. There will be wars over resources such as fresh water and still usefull land and I suspect the sanctity of life will be much diminished.

 

[civverguy]

America, China, and a European country.

 

[amaterasu]

Hm, china faces their economy over heating, or if they take action against that a loss of confidence in their shares. Thhat aside there isn't much you can do to top such a large, naturally rich, populous nation becoming very powerful.

US
China
<----EU if it unities
India

The US will still have a massive economy and as chian grows that will in turn make the US and EU grow as they have so much invested in china, india benefits from democracy and other things, they will still have the third largest economy in 2050 if they continue their current growth, and their growth has been a lot more sustainable then china's.

OI! Russia doesn't have we europeans by the balls, we will just go elsewhere for our oil and gas, we will have to pay more yes, but the again right across the EU there is a clean energy drive atm.

Brazil, with all that water, and resources, if they get over the corruption problem and educate the poor they could boom, have the rest of latin america pretty much behind them ( who cares about bolivia, really?)

EU, looks to expand ever further, into eastern europe and perhaps the middle east, some of the mediterean wants to make union there to, and it would be europe led obviously.

Africa will/is be bought up by other countries as they try to secure resources.

 

[UncleJJ]

Sounds like your list could be modified:

Oceania
Eurasia
Eastasia

Only Russia seems to be slacking off, making the 2nd less possible. Time to buck up, Russia!

Yep, and the obvious place for Russia and Ukraine and Belarus to join up with is the EU... they are all european after all. Who can guess when that could happen but the juncture of Russian resources and rest of Europe technologies and markets would be such a powerful combination that in say 50 years it could overtake the US. The US is currently exhausting itself with a huge budget deficit and China might not be stable politically as it tries to leverage growth. Remember that oil is going to get horribly expensive in the next 30 years once we have gone past peak oil... and Global warming might start playing havoc with the climate...

 

[luiz]

Brazil has made spanish a mandatory language in their schools.

The students can choose between Spanish and English.

If they want to dominate south america, they will have to do it in spanish, because Argentines, Peruvians etc, are not going to learn portuguese.

No sane brazilian has any interest in dominating South America. Our government of course does not qualify as sane, and it's childish attempts to become leader of the continent always seem to go hilariously wrong.

 

[vidimce]

The USA is the sole superpower at the moment. At the moment the USA has the largest developed economy with a steady growth and a GDP 5-6 times that of China. The world is largely dependent on America's economy and if it crashes we would have a second great depression.
With an annual military budget of $460B accounting for almost half of the Global military budget ( $960B ) it has the most advanced and most rapidly advancing Military. US Military bases are all across the world enabling control of those areas and quick strikes to any region if neccesary. With a strong Navy, Canada as an ally and a relatively weak Mexico, threats to the mainland are not possible.
America posseses around 8000 nuclear warheads, should it be necessary, more then enough to destroy the world 10 times over.
The American Inteligence system is the most complex system in the world, they know what is going on all the time, they know how the world works, and the plan things for years in advance.
The USA has big cultural influence on the whole world with music, holywood, food etc.
List of US Allies include: UK, Canada, Australia and to an extent all of Nato's members.
Finally the US has a functioning political system and immense ideological influence i.e. Capialism.



China has a growing economy, relatively weak military compared to US and Russia, not many allies, much much less nukes and a lot worse technology for nuke delivery. They do have a big army but that proves little in todays military.
I doubt China will rise to a superpower status any time soon.
Id rather put my bets on Russia.

As a conclusion, I think the USA will remain as the world Superpower and wont decline, but in the future it may have to compete with Russia and China.

 

[ParkCungHee]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRIC

 

[St Exupère]

The world is changing pretty quickly these days, to a point that the superpowers in 80 years could be called:

- Microsoft
- Google
- NASA
- Bank of China
- Wallmart
- Catholic Church
- Islam
- FIFA
- Sony
...

I mean it is very possible. As we speak many peoples that have existed for centuries, many Nations, are slowly ceasing to exist. For example I believe all those of Western Europe are gone forever - the French, German, English Nations will soon have no meaning anymore, other than define puppet States and Administrations trying to defend a few private interests.

Whether (scenario 1) other peoples of the world will also dissolve and we shall see other superpowers and frontiers emerge (such as those I listed above), or whether (scenario 2) there will be a world-wide nationalist and identitarian "renaissance" is a major question for the current century and I believe no one has the answer. Too many contradictory trends are going to clash violently.

As for Africa and in case of scenario 2, I would not count them out for the dynamism of their population and ethnical sense of identity; they are already fast constituting loose cultural colonies all over Europe at the moment, and the trend is bound to increase rapidly in the coming decades. Sooner that one might think the future of the citizens of Europe might be partly decided in Abuja, Bamako or Nairobi. It is possible that, similarly to the European Nations emerged from the fall of the Roman Empire, African Nations might become more and more powerful on their continents and abroad, with areas of cultural and demographic dominance outside of Africa.

In terms of "Nations" in the classical sense of the word, the most powerful ones I can think of today (scenario 2) are:
- China
- Japan
- Korea
- Vietnam
- Russia
- Iran
- Turkey
- Pakistan

As for the USA:
scenario 1 - I believe at some point "globalization" will turn against them, just like it is right now vs the Nations of Europe. Except in resorting to massive imperialism (which IMO would fail), I do not see how they will eventually fight this negative trend.
scenario 2 - they would need to massively re-organize the way their country is built should the world go towards an era of protectionism and global recession, and the outcome of such change is doubtful - at best

Just a thought...

 

[Joe Harker]

I don't see where people are getting this idea that russia is a major power any more, they are suffering a demographic diaster, they are population is going down, birth rates are dropping and death rates are not, HIV is starting to get a real foothold now in southern russia. TB has become resistent to drugs becuase of the over use of antibiotics in Russian prisons and is starting to spread, especially where HIV is present.
Yes they do have nuclear weapons, but so does Britain and France, and you can't really call them superpowers

 

[ParkCungHee]

I don't see where people are getting this idea that russia is a major power any more, they are suffering a demographic diaster, they are population is going down, birth rates are dropping and death rates are not, HIV is starting to get a real foothold now in southern russia. TB has become resistent to drugs becuase of the over use of antibiotics in Russian prisons and is starting to spread, especially where HIV is present.
Yes they do have nuclear weapons, but so does Britain and France, and you can't really call them superpowers

So Russia has a small population. Power, if you haven't noticed, isn't measured in manpower alone now. They are the second most advanced nation in the world in terms of military technology, they have probably the greatest supplies of natural resources of any nation in the world, they not only have nukes but the second most advanced delivery systems in the world, and their economy is growing at an astounding rate. They not only are a great power, they are becoming moreso everyday.

 

[Atropos]

So Russia has a small population. Power, if you haven't noticed, isn't measured in manpower alone now. They are the second most advanced nation in the world in terms of military technology, they have probably the greatest supplies of natural resources of any nation in the world, they not only have nukes but the second most advanced delivery systems in the world, and their economy is growing at an astounding rate. They not only are a great power, they are becoming moreso everyday.

Concerning the economic point, if you discount the effects of oil, their economy is nearly stagnant. Moreover, their military technology is Cold War-vintage, whereas, say, China's is modernizing.

 

[ParkCungHee]

Concerning the economic point, if you discount the effects of oil, their economy is nearly stagnant.

Nonetheless its booming. Poverty is dissapearing rapidly, and this is creating opportunities in other fields.

Moreover, their military technology is Cold War-vintage, whereas, say, China's is modernizing.

Yes...by buying Russian technology. Russia too is modernizing. By 2010, GLONASS will be able to do everything that GPS can do, while the Beidou system hasn't even begun to experiment on global coverage, and the Sukhoi 47 will soon be entering production.

 

[luiz]

Nevertheless, the real new powers are India and China. Russia, Brazil and etc are merely sidekicks.

 

[vidimce]

Concerning the economic point, if you discount the effects of oil, their economy is nearly stagnant. Moreover, their military technology is Cold War-vintage, whereas, say, China's is modernizing.

Putin has really reorganised the country for the better. Outsider influence has been minimised, internal problems are being resolved, selling precious oil, gas and weapons the economy is rising and Russia is the World Military Superpower.
Russia has the world's top of the line tanks, fighters, helicopters, armored units, Nuclear Warheads such as Topol etc.

What China has is outdated Russian technologies from the Cold War. It is being modernized of coarse but mostly depended on Russia.

 

[Cheezy the Wiz]

Putin has really reorganised the country for the better. Outsider influence has been minimised, internal problems are being resolved, selling precious oil, gas and weapons the economy is rising and Russia is the World Military Superpower.
Russia has the world's top of the line tanks, fighters, helicopters, armored units, Nuclear Warheads such as Topol etc.

What China has is outdated Russian technologies from the Cold War. It is being modernized of coarse but mostly depended on Russia.

This is in a theoretical world where the United States doesn't exist, right? Because last time I checked, the Russians haven't been in the lead of anything since Sputnik.