innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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- Dec 4, 2006
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This inflation ending in one year? Who's investing in new production capacity or outright defaulting on existing debt?
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The complaints of inflation are insane.
- Thread starter Hygro
- Start date
This inflation ending in one year? Who's investing in new production capacity or outright defaulting on existing debt?
What are the starting wages rates for these folks?
Sick days are part of a package. The best way to judge things is to see the whole package.
A retail clerk at $10/hr; 10 unpaid holidays; no healthcare and no paid vacation/time off certainly needs paid sick days.
An hourly person at $50/hr; paid holidays; overtime; paid vacation; health care and a 401k is less in need of paid sick days.
Focusing on just sick days is usually a mistake.
A retail clerk at $10/hr; 10 unpaid holidays; no healthcare and no paid vacation/time off certainly needs paid sick days.
An hourly person at $50/hr; paid holidays; overtime; paid vacation; health care and a 401k is less in need of paid sick days.
Focusing on just sick days is usually a mistake.
Farm Boy
they're all reactions
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When they manage the goal of crashing the economy, the raw measure will probably decrease. I'm not arguing actual deflation, just differences in rates. Though, for the record, it doesn't seem fun to be caught holding grain when the speculators cut and run. We'll see how much is them, how much is south east Asia eating meat, how much is Putler, and how much is other stuff. But that's just one slice. Wages are mostly trying to beat others' wages over time, so you have the bigger house on the block. Somebody gonna live in it, at least until things get totally dysfunctional like downtown London or something. Though I suppose there is a lesson in that. When housing overheats its too valuable to be lived in. Sort of like a reverse Gift of the Magi.
The USA annual inflation rate for November 2022 was 7.1%
Consumer prices rose less than expected in November, up 7.1% from a year ago
The consumer price index was expected to increase 0.3% in November, according to Dow Jones estimates.
The USA annual inflation rate for December 2022 was 6.5%
Here's the inflation breakdown for December 2022 — in one chart
Inflation continued to moderate in December, a welcome sign for consumers. Gasoline prices plummeted and many other categories are pulling back.
The USA annual inflation rate for January 2023 was 6.4%
January CPI inflation rate slows to 6.4% but monthly inflation rose by 0.5%
January's inflation report showed a continued decline from prior months. Investors are hopeful it will prompt the Fed to pause rate hikes.
www.usatoday.com
Credit cards are up to 19% on average.
All the interest rate hikes and people running out of money this year should stamp out the inflation eventually.
CC interest is always oppressive and terrible. Best to avoid or work hard to lower one's balance. I do think we are past the worst of the inflation "scare."
The Fed increased their rate target to 4.25%-4.5% on December 14 2022.
The Fed increased their rate target to 4.5%-4.75% on February 1st 2023.
Fed raises rates a quarter point, expects 'ongoing' increases
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday released its decision on interest rates following its two-day meeting.
Of somewhat lesser importance is whether the Fed is buying or not buying new treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.
They have halted buying and since September 2022 their $9 trillion balance sheet has been shrinking $95 billion per month. (About 1% each month)
Council Post: The Slippery Slope Of The Fed’s Shrinking Balance Sheet
Here are a few factors for investors and businesses to consider as we progress through the next few quarters.
www.forbes.com
Inflation Woes: Dark Powell Rises
Well it looks like inflation is persistent now. So much for people's previous guestimates of it being transitory. Jerome Powell of the Fed is now raising interest rates, and other central banks are following suit in order to achieve currency parity with the dollar to offset economic woes via...
forums.civfanatics.com
Guess I'll find out in the next few months.
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Hygro
soundcloud.com/hygro/
I saw a lot of price rises in early to mid 2022 but by the end most of my purchases already had new prices and haven’t gone up in half a year.
Farm Boy
they're all reactions
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- Sep 8, 2010
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- 27,448
Mine haven't stopped. Food has slowed, some. Really wanting them to get the bird flu under control and the chicken flocks back up. Local government here demands all eggs savings in permits if you raise your own. "Your labor is ours!"
On Saturdays we order lunch for pick up from our favorite local restaurant. Pre-pandemic we went there to eat. Typically we paid $20-$25 for two nice lunches. During 2022 they raised their prices (and wages to hourly employees) and we now pay $30-40 for our weekly buy. Their food is excellent and we like supporting this local business.
www.flyingstarcafe.com
Menu
Flying Star Cafe menu features handmade bakery desserts, fresh roasted coffee, and homemade breakfast, lunch and dinner all day long.
www.flyingstarcafe.com
What does this mean? It could mean the price change from 31st Nov 2021 to 31st Nov 2022 was 7.1%, or it could mean that the price change from 1st Nov 2022 to 31st Nov 2022 was 7.1/12%. The first would be a more intuitive interpretation, but would indicate some very odd price movement.
It should be the prices compared to the same month in the previous year.
Overall, my expenses have gone up by around 8-10% during 2022. However, you need to hold this up against a yearly inflation rate here at around 1-1.5% per year, since the end of the financial crisis of 2008-2010. We were overdue for a correction. You can't run a stable economy on very low interest rates and more debt accumulation forever.
In that case this data is also defining quarterly inflation rates, to some extent. From "The USA annual inflation rate for October 2022 was 7.7%" and "The USA annual inflation rate for December 2022 was 6.5%" we can say that the rate Oct 21 - Dec 22 was 1.4% higher than the rate Oct 22 - Dec 22, and the rate Jan 22 - Sep 22 is also constrained. We can plot this relationship, see below. Is this really credible? If the rate was constant throughout 2022 then the rate Oct 21 - Dec 22 was nearly three times as high? If the rate was constant Oct 21 - Sep 22 then the rate Oct 22 - Dec 22 was a third?
Core inflation? CPI? Overall? Time frame used? Eggs are up, used cars down. One can measure inflation lots of different ways. Many things are more expensive now than l before. Averages are just that, averages. Housing costs are up! Ongoing mortgages payments are not. Fuel prices are up! But if you don't drive or drive very little, a $0.50 rise in gas prices may not mean much. In the US the Fed deals with averages of the different indexes and works the interest rates to attempt controls. The impact of inflation on people various with their spending habits and needs. YMMV.
We are talking about two inflation figures released by the same organisation (the Fed?). All those complications exist, but they are the same for both the figures. I do not see how those features make the wild implications of those figures any more credible.
I think this is why it's a lot easier to just talk in index points from period to period when comparing more than two periods. I find it helps to just look at what the index was in each period when trying to understand annual and quarterly figures in the same series, because percentage changes are annoying and can be counter intuitive to compare.In that case this data is also defining quarterly inflation rates, to some extent. From "The USA annual inflation rate for October 2022 was 7.7%" and "The USA annual inflation rate for December 2022 was 6.5%" we can say that the rate Oct 21 - Dec 22 was 1.4% higher than the rate Oct 22 - Dec 22, and the rate Jan 22 - Sep 22 is also constrained. We can plot this relationship, see below. Is this really credible? If the rate was constant throughout 2022 then the rate Oct 21 - Dec 22 was nearly three times as high? If the rate was constant Oct 21 - Sep 22 then the rate Oct 22 - Dec 22 was a third?
Anyway US inflation looks fairly similar to Australia's. About 2 percent a quarter so currently at an annual rate of 8%.
Obviously the annual rate increased these last couple of quarters because successive 2% periods were added to the annual movement while lower inflation quarters from before the war dropped out.
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