The Emperor's new Space Program

I'm sorry, but unless Humans are going to go into space I (and many others) simply don't care about it. I was under the impression that all the robots where supposed to be paving the way, why bother finding out if their is water on mars, or if those exoplanets have oxygen if we have no intention of follow up?

Catch-22. If people aren't going, people don't care, if people don't care they don't get any money, if they don't get any money, people can't go.
I think you can capture the public's attention with scientific discoveries by unmanned craft as well. Especially if we do discover evidence of life, like oxygen-rich exoplanet atmospheres.

It's not like it would be feasible to send people to exoplanets or anything either. I suppose we might be able to get some sort of small interstellar probe with nuclear pulse propulsion or some variant, which would be really interesting (if also prohibitively expensive and long). It's hard to imagine a scenario where we could bump that up to a manned mission though.
 
It's perfectly valid comparison. Human spaceflight may be more expensive, but unless the robots can match human capacities in all relevant aspects, they can't do things which we want do do. A human on Mars will see a stone, grabs a geological hammer and checks it out in 5 minutes. A robot will probably need several days, and it will not be nearly as effective.

Not to mention the communication delay and day cycle limitations allow only few hours of operation a day. It will improve with better robots, but you can only go so far. One human mission lasting roughly ~3 years (including 12 month round-trip) would accomplish more than an infinite number of rover robots. So much for your "research per dollar" category.

The fact that a single human can do more then a robot isn't really relevant. My point is that this capability is more than offset by how much more expensive that person is. There is a limited amount of money we can spend on things. For that money we want to get the most value, in terms of research, possible. Robots offer more value for money then people. That's why NASA does it's serious exploration with robots rather than people. If people were better it stands to reason that they would favour people; manned missions are more popular.

That's a completely faulty logic. 19th century Europe invented tons of things that later led to practical applications and they did explore everything they could, even though it was expensive and risky. I'll go few centuries back in time to the era of Portuguese exploration again to illustrate my point:

You've gone from arguing from the position that the long-term survival of humanity is the goal to something more akin to exploration in itself as the goal. My point is that if manned space exploration is the best way to ensure humanities survival future generations will be far better equipped then we are. Our efforts are better focused on enabling them. Currently manned exploration is far to expensive to lead to viable colonies. We would be better off spending money on things that are actually useful then frittering it away on publicity stunts. In the context of space, escaping Earth's orbit is the single largest barrier to colonization; we should research cheaper ways to do this rather then build a colony on the moon for the hell of it. We should focus on problems that are relevant to us; at the moment the sun dying just isn't. This is exactly why 19th century Europe was better off inventing a ton of things that lead to practical application rather then spending on solar power because in a couple hundred years fossil fuels would start to run out.

The Universe is finite too, so let's just commit suicide, it's all pointless. Is that your point?

Are you really trying to argue that we don't have finite resources and we shouldn't take account of this fact? If our aim is the preservation of humanity then we're wasting time by not taking into account the fact that space exploration has an opportunity cost. If there are better things to expend our resources on, we should cut back on manned exploration.
 
Everyone simply ignoring Obama actually raising NASA's budget?

Looks like in this case he was listening to his scientific advisors not his PR staff.
 
For example, the hubble space telescope needed servicing many times - only humans could do that. You don't have a spacecraft to get there and manipulate it, you're screwed.
The Hubble Space Telescope is rumored to be a modified KH-12 spy satellite. AFAIK none of those have ever been repaired in space. While it may have been more expensive to do so, we could have just sent up replacements as we regularly do with the KH-12s.
 
Winner: I've worked with a gov't/private partnership to deliver an essential service. It's not an efficient process. The problem is that there're too many cooks in the kitchen for a lot of what we'd want to get done in space. The gov't would have to help form a Business Reference Document, and then be involved in the project management for each stage of the design & construction of new equipment. This is obviously necessary when something is being made for the government to use, but that's not really what space adventurism is. Please remember that I'm not talking about the science, those need to be public/private cooperations.

The advantage of the prize system is that the gov't doesn't need to be part of each step of the design: they don't care. So much of a p/p coop's time is spent coordinating to ensure that the specifications are what the customer wants. It's really a waste when you want a result, instead of a product. Additionally, like I mention, the gov't has to care about safetys. A private endeavour can contract into whatever safety level they prefer.

I know the gov't money is being spent 'usefully', but it's nowhere near a maximum efficiency possible.

If the "billion dollars to the Moon" is unreasonable, because no one will try (which isn't true, probably), there is really room for a series of smaller prizes. The X-Prize showed that small prizes for achievable results will get a lot of effort. The beauty of a prize system is that there's not even all that much trouble budgeting it. Small prizes would often be used as seed money for swipes at larger prizes. Yeah, sometimes a private enterprise will fail, but they'll accumulate a lot of expertise in the process. The experts will be salvaged for the next go at the prize.

And the cost-benefit of letting people take risks is huge. There're whole whacks of people who're crazy enough to try amazingly crazy things, things that would never be allowed by a bureaucrat. Let 'em try.

There's soon going to be a thousand billionaires in the world. The X-Prize cost a total of $36 million to win ($10 seed money, and $26 invested by the winner). Those X-Prize winners went on to found a company that's going to use the design for tourists. People are going to pay to be guinea pigs for space development. That's a pretty good return.

Once one whacko figures out how to get to the Moon for cheap, the safety-goons can sweep in and mimic the technology.
 
That's where you're wrong my friend.

US defense budget - over 600 billion dollars, set to increase by further dozens of billions.

NASA budget - little over 18 billion. That's about 3% of the defense budget.

Money needed to keep Constellation up an running: 3 billion annually. That's 0.07% of the proposed $3.8 trillion budget. Practically nothing compared to the overall expenses, even compared to the bailouts the US gov. so readily distributed among large private companies.

Do you really think that he couldn't find another 3 billion in the budget? I can't even imagine that. He simply didn't want to or didn't care. Both alternatives are very sad.

For what it's worth Obama doesn't think it's as important as the other stuff they're spending money on.

I agree that the U.S. defense budget is way too high, but that's what they want to spend their money on, so who are we to tell them otherwise? It's all about priorities, and I guess space exploration isn't that high on Obama's list in these tough economic times.

Besides, a couple months ago the U.S. space program looked to be in a horrible shape - not only were there no plans to replace the space shuttle and continue human space exploration, but the ISS was also planned to be decomissioned, soon.

At least now the ISS will continue flying.

If this was Canada's space program we're talking about, I'd have a more emotional connection to these decisions, but as an outsider all I can do is say "Well, if that's what they want to spend their money on.. cool"

Eventually other countries will step up and in the end the U.S. is going to have to as well. It's not like the U.S. has an obligation to drive space exploration for humanity. Apparently they have other priorities, so whatever.
 
What President Obama and most people in this thread are failing to see is that a manned space program isn't $billions spent just shooting some guy up into the air. It's extensive R&D into rocket engines, high grade fuels, avionics, radar, advanced composite materials (especially light weight and height resistance), solar panels, fuel cells, robust computer systems, flight control, high nutrition non-perishable foodstuffs, and so on. It's not just building a rocket and launching it, it's developing new technologies, gaining invaluable real world experience with cutting edge engineering applications, and contracting work out to high tech industry.
 
Correct, we should be cutting work from NASA engineers and aerospace firms, that's what we need.
 
What President Obama and most people in this thread are failing to see is that a manned space program isn't $billions spent just shooting some guy up into the air. It's extensive R&D into rocket engines, high grade fuels, avionics, radar, advanced composite materials (especially light weight and height resistance), solar panels, fuel cells, robust computer systems, flight control, high nutrition non-perishable foodstuffs, and so on. It's not just building a rocket and launching it, it's developing new technologies, gaining invaluable real world experience with cutting edge engineering applications, and contracting work out to high tech industry.

Which is pretty much all gained through unmanned programs for less money.
 
Winner praising something the russians did? :crazyeye: And Winner vs. americans? I'll grab the popcorn and just watch. :lol:

Well, I can add a minor historical anecdote:

"I am sorry, Vasco, but your planned voyage to India is simply too expensive, you're over the budget. We have wars to pay for and the peasants are getting restless, we must throw them some coin. But don't worry, our explorations programme isn't over, we'll hand it over to private investors. In the meantime, we want our navy to focus on more closer-to-home activities, like fishing and patrolling :hide: "

That kind of thing actually happened in 15th century Portugal. A silly, bellicose king, Afonso V, insistent on concentrating on the war against the moors in Morocco, because, you see, they were evil and so it was the right thing to do (ok, there were some good reasons, but that was the driving idea). So he wasted the country's resources trying to subdue a barren and unprofitable land (anyone sees historical parallels?), and failing at it. In the meanwhile he rented out, for 6 years, the exploration of the western coast of Africa to a wealthy merchant, Fernão Gomes, with the condition that he map about 500km of coast per year. The merchant did fulfill the contract. But unlike space exploration, there the private party had one big incentive: a monopoly on trade for the duration of the contract. And the main trade good found happened to be gold.

So, unless someone finds something really valuable on the moon...
 
I see I really, really, really (...) underestimated the strength of Obamania... Silly me...

The Hubble Space Telescope is rumored to be a modified KH-12 spy satellite. AFAIK none of those have ever been repaired in space. While it may have been more expensive to do so, we could have just sent up replacements as we regularly do with the KH-12s.

:shake:

Everyone simply ignoring Obama actually raising NASA's budget?

Looks like in this case he was listening to his scientific advisors not his PR staff.

No, he decided to pick few cherries from the Augustine report* and then started to pretend that he's doing it "Obama-way": cheaper, smarted, nicer. Too bad this doesn't really work in space research. Nor diplomacy. Nor military. Nor politics. Ugh...

(* = a group of 'experts' most of whom are connected with private space companies recommends to hand over space exploration to private space companies. Surprise surprise :lol: )

The fact that a single human can do more then a robot isn't really relevant.

No, it is very relevant. Period.

Are you really trying to argue that we don't have finite resources and we shouldn't take account of this fact?

Funny, after all the posts I've made on this forum speaking in favour of conservation and intelligent use of resources, one would say nobody can accuse me of the contrary. But this is CFC, what did I expect?

If our aim is the preservation of humanity then we're wasting time by not taking into account the fact that space exploration has an opportunity cost. If there are better things to expend our resources on, we should cut back on manned exploration.

Ok, enough of this crap. Time for bigger fonts:

Annual expenses of ALL SPACE AGENCIES IN THE WHOLE DAMN WORLD COMBINED are less than 50 billion US dollars. That's like the military budget of France, in other words about 0.08% of the world's GDP. How could anybody POSSIBLY target this for "cost reductions" is really beyond my capacity to understand.

Let's move on.

For what it's worth Obama doesn't think it's as important as the other stuff they're spending money on.

A better word would be "wasting".

I agree that the U.S. defense budget is way too high, but that's what they want to spend their money on, so who are we to tell them otherwise? It's all about priorities, and I guess space exploration isn't that high on Obama's list in these tough economic times.

I said in one of my first posts in this thread that it's of course up to the Americans to decide what they want to spend/waste their money on. I am simply presenting my opinion on it, what's wrong about that?

Besides, a couple months ago the U.S. space program looked to be in a horrible shape - not only were there no plans to replace the space shuttle and continue human space exploration, but the ISS was also planned to be decomissioned, soon.

That's very inaccurate. NASA was kinda paralysed because nobody knew what the heck would Obama do to it. Nobody knew it - because Obama has changed his space plans about 5 times already (3 times during his campaign and then 2 times as the president).

At least now the ISS will continue flying.

That's like saying "We're scrapping our entire navy, but hey, at least we won't raze our port facilities and drydocks!" :crazyeye:

If this was Canada's space program we're talking about, I'd have a more emotional connection to these decisions, but as an outsider all I can do is say "Well, if that's what they want to spend their money on.. cool"

Are you aware that this will profoundly and negatively impact both the CSA and ESA, both of which rely on NASA for human spaceflight?

Eventually other countries will step up and in the end the U.S. is going to have to as well. It's not like the U.S. has an obligation to drive space exploration for humanity. Apparently they have other priorities, so whatever.

I imagine ESA won't be amused, since it operated under pretty clear assumption that the US provides manned spaceflight, while it plays the role of a sidekick, focusing on the less illustrious science. Now both Canada and Europe have their stuff on the ISS, but won't have access to it. Wonderful. On somewhat brighter note, perhaps this will finally persuade the Europeans to start looking after their own interests in space. Gods know we've been keeping low profile for way too long.

Winner praising something the russians did? :crazyeye: And Winner vs. americans? I'll grab the popcorn and just watch. :lol:

I mentioned many times that I admired the Russian space programme, so don't act surprised.

That kind of thing actually happened in 15th century Portugal. A silly, bellicose king, Afonso V, insistent on concentrating on the war against the moors in Morocco, because, you see, they were evil and so it was the right thing to do (ok, there were some good reasons, but that was the driving idea). So he wasted the country's resources trying to subdue a barren and unprofitable land (anyone sees historical parallels?), and failing at it. In the meanwhile he rented out, for 6 years, the exploration of the western coast of Africa to a wealthy merchant, Fernão Gomes, with the condition that he map about 500km of coast per year. The merchant did fulfill the contract. But unlike space exploration, there the private party had one big incentive: a monopoly on trade for the duration of the contract. And the main trade good found happened to be gold.

So, unless someone finds something really valuable on the moon...

One can really rely on you to distort historical facts.


------------------
------------------

Anyway, here's what's gonna happen now, if Obama's plans are accepted.

  • NASA will have wasted 9 billion US dollars which it has already invested in its Constellation programme. That is the money used in development of Ares-1, the Orion spacecraft and other related projects. I don't have to say there are no refunds.
  • NASA will lose thousands of engineers and scientists, who depended on it. This will make any future "restart" of major space exploration extremely difficult as NASA will have to create its team from scratch.
  • US will lose its leadership in manned space exploration. Not necessarily a bad thing, but it will come back to haunt the Americans just as the end of Chinese maritime exploration turned out to be a gigantic mistake.
  • Human Mars mission will be delayed by at least another decade. Robots will continue to send us pretty pictures and limited science data, but the real stuff we need to do ourselves will have to wait.

Let's quote Mike Griffin:

Former NASA Administrator Mike Griffin, an architect of the now-cancelled moon program, told CBS News the shift to commercial space operations was a profound mistake.

"I'm one of the biggest proponents of commercial spaceflight that there is, but it doesn't yet exist," he said. "I would like an enlightened government policy to help bring it about, but I don't believe you get there by destroying all your government capability so there's no option but for the government to do whatever necessary to get the - quote - commercial operators - unquote - to succeed. That's not the way to do it.

"Basically, you're burning the bridge behind you. Even if it's successful, now what you've done is you've created not a space program for the United States, you've created a capability to get to low-Earth orbit but there's nothing to do there because there's no government program. Where's the market?"

Griffin added that "for the U.S. government to deliberately give up its lead in something which is fundamentally an enterprise of governments ... for the United States to give up something that's an important part of our national identity in favor of outsourcing it to commercial enterprises when and as they come into being is bizarre."

Source (Read the whole article if you can.)

Smart guy.
 
The Hubble Space Telescope is rumored to be a modified KH-12 spy satellite. AFAIK none of those have ever been repaired in space. While it may have been more expensive to do so, we could have just sent up replacements as we regularly do with the KH-12s.
next thing you will be telling me that the KH fit inside the space shuttle ;)

I guess with the withdrawral of subsidies the American farm family will disappear and will be taken over my evil corporations. You can't have your cake and eat it.
I don't know what you've been smoking but the fact of the matter is that American Farmers are corporate slaves
Great News:goodjob:. Now that the bloated government is out of the way I'm sure the free market will have moon resort hotels in my lifetime.
:confused:

Everyone simply ignoring Obama actually raising NASA's budget?

Looks like in this case he was listening to his scientific advisors not his PR staff.
What he said
What President Obama and most people in this thread are failing to see is that a manned space program isn't $billions spent just shooting some guy up into the air. It's extensive R&D into rocket engines, high grade fuels, avionics, radar, advanced composite materials (especially light weight and height resistance), solar panels, fuel cells, robust computer systems, flight control, high nutrition non-perishable foodstuffs, and so on. It's not just building a rocket and launching it, it's developing new technologies, gaining invaluable real world experience with cutting edge engineering applications, and contracting work out to high tech industry.

If the US doesn't maintain its talent they will be gone within 20 years, mostly coffins but some will be working for the Chinese or Indians
 
If the US doesn't maintain its talent they will be gone within 20 years, mostly coffins but some will be working for the Chinese or Indians

They already lost most of it when the former Nazi scientists, whom the US kidnapped from Germany, died. :)
 
No, he decided to pick few cherries from the Augustine report* and then started to pretend that he's doing it "Obama-way": cheaper, smarted, nicer. Too bad this doesn't really work in space research. Nor diplomacy. Nor military. Nor politics. Ugh...

I really don't see the cheaper part in the article. All I see is an "additional 6 billion over the next 5 years". It probably is smarter, as like I've said, scientist in general are no great fan of manned space missions and I really dont know what nice has to do with it.
 
They already lost most of it when the former Nazi scientists, whom the US kidnapped from Germany, died. :)

It could be an opportunity for Europe - we should offer all these people jobs in our space programme :D Payback time for the post-WW2 brain drain ;)

I really don't see the cheaper part in the article. All I see is an "additional 6 billion over the next 5 years".

As opposed to aditional 15-20 billion in the next 5 years, hence cheaper. BTW, the NASA budget relative to the overall US spending is the lowest since 1950s. Guardian has a nice table with precise figures.

It probably is smarter, as like I've said, scientist in general are no great fan of manned space missions

That's simply not true. I'd really love to see a geologist or exobiologist who would voluntarily miss a chance to go to Mars and do his science there himself, instead of relying on few pieces of data which are being sent from Mars by robots.

It's just that most scientists are trying to get at least something, knowing they're not high on politicans' list of priorities.

and I really dont know what nice has to do with it.

He wants to use NASA to "combat climate change", he wants to boost private sector, it is all meant to sound smart and nice. Of course the real substance of it is a tragedy:

- no new launchers
- no new spaceships
-> not going anywhere.

Hence why I call it "emperor's new space programme" - because there is none.
 
Guess we'll have to wait for this

chimoon3.jpg
 
That's simply not true. I'd really love to see a geologist or exobiologist who would voluntarily miss a chance to go to Mars and do his science there himself, instead of relying on few pieces of data which are being sent from Mars by robots.

It's just that most scientists are trying to get at least something, knowing they're not high on politicans' list of priorities.

For the same amount of money, you can get a lot more 'science' done by unmanned droned than by manned missions. If you ask an individual scientist if he wants to go to Mars himself, well sure he'd say yes...

I looked at the spending, and while it is projected to go down for one year, it is planned to rise again afterwards - exceeding the amount spent today.
 
you wanna go to the moon, fly chinese, whats the problem?

China are teh 3vil totalitaraisn

Besides, IIRC, Winner does not have much faith in the Chinese Space Program. And in fact they haven't done much so far compared to, say, ESA. Then again, the Europeans are in a much better position, internationally, financially and technologically.

And it's not a mere "prestige project" at all. It's paving the way for actual human colonization of other celestial bodies.
 
Back
Top Bottom