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The future of Tesla

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Moriarte, Sep 28, 2018.

  1. Oerdin

    Oerdin Deity

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    In the last two quarters the company made slight loses due to costs associated with the massive construction costs of Gigafactory 3 in China. Two quarters before that were both profitable. I see investment on increasing production to keep up with demand as being a worthwhile long term investment strategy.
     
  2. Hygro

    Hygro soundcloud.com/hygro/

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    I didn’t realize they reoriented to Europe. They are dominating America
     
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  3. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    They have lowered proxies in the past year, and moved do producing slightly cheaper versions of their models. IF indeed demand was high at the previous prices, why would they do that?

    They are shipping cars to another continent, that has costs on their side. If indeed they could sell them in their home market for the same price, why would they ship it to another continent?

    Excuses, excuses, excuses. Musk is a serial liar.

    Tesla's was a tale of making up in volume their current unit losses. They were financed on the premise that they would dominate the "car market" in the future.
    Which could be true if they were good at industrial production and took advantage of economies of scale. But growth is halting. And in the US it reversed already. While they remain a niche manufacturer.
     
    Last edited: Oct 6, 2019
  4. Oerdin

    Oerdin Deity

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    Tesla lowered the price of the base model 3 mostly to keep Musl’s promise of an affordable luxury electric car for the masses which starts around $35,000. Not because of weak demand, they still have a massive backlog and pre-sold every car before it was even built. There are still very long waiting lists to get your hands on one.

    BTW here is a great video on Tesla’s new million mile battery, the five times faster charging battery, and the 130 new battery patents Tesla filled just this year (more than the rest of the battery industry combined). This really does put them ahead of everyone else in battery tech.



    As for being a niche manufacturer it already makes 1/3rd of a million cars per year and gigafactory three has a capacity for 750,000 additional cars per year. That is over a million plus they have three new models being developed right now while the older models are constantly evolved to include the new tech such as improved batteries and electronics. They are going to be a full line maker with volume in the millions while the dinosaurs of the auto business are still dinking around with decade old tech.
     
    Last edited: Oct 6, 2019
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  5. Moriarte

    Moriarte Immortal

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    Putting financial disposition aside for a bit, these cars are so far ahead in tech, this isn’t even funny. Leaves me scratching my head as to why everyone else isn’t doing exactly the same thing or better. If any car manufacturer in the world approached me and asked me, with nice german accent, “what should we do to make our luxury cars better”.. I would firmly point my finger towards Tesla and say “do This, do not do it any other way. Please.” It starts from dashboard design philosophy - a huge monitor in the center. One more to the left of it. In this day and age it’s the only option to make things accessible and intuitive. Things you can do in a tesla to save energy (and thus potential CO2 footprint) while driving would take a full page of write up. No one else has this at that depth. Create driver profile for each family member? Easy. Seat positions are saved, instrument cluster layout, light preferences, map markings, distance units, climate control preferences, etc, etc. Gentle monitor swipes.

    This car is designed in an organic, deep and coherent way. What I described above is a tesla from 6 years ago. Today, top line lexus, ferraris, lamborghinis, mercedes, bmw, rolls-royce, porsche still don’t have Tesla’s level of sophistication and finesse from 6 years ago, no no, they’re busy selling severely overpriced 10+ year old incoherent crap tech when it comes to interior design, electronic design that is. If you haven’t already, check out tesla’s interior walkaround of some sort on youtube to get a glimpse of how cars of the future will look like when Daimler, VW and Toyota will finally catch up to what’s going on.

    This isn’t some huge empty bubble of hype, this actually is an amazing vehicle, a testament to our new age of IT and CO2-awareness. The amoununt of work their engineers did is tremendous. I don’t understand why, all non-design things being equal, it won’t sell in bigger numbers over the coming years.
     
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  6. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    Car industry is conservative & risk avoiding. Rooted in the metal industry, even more conservative and risk avoiding, you talk about Germany: even more conservative... it moves slowly.
    But that's the management.
    The (young) engineers are I guess all thrilled by that big widening up of what "a 21th century car can be" !
    If Musk would have a less controversial personality regarding social-societal topics, he would for me be a candidate for a Nobel prize if he succeeds in full !

    However... don't underestimate German and Japanese car engineers !
    They will come and both have a solid reputation and loyal home market to guarantee enough volumes to get economy of scale in no-time.

    Do also mind that hydrogen is seen by Germany and Japan as main future energy-bearer for cars that move substantially on the motorways.
    For urban and sub-urban commuting electric cars, but much smaller than a Tesla model 3, will I guess have the market. But those are low-cost A->B vehicles. not the sensation of driving a Tesla.
     
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  7. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

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    This is actually a turn off for a lot of people. It's cool looking for sure, but the lack of physical buttons for any functions means you are often taking your eyes off the road to find a digital button whereas muscle memory with physical buttons is a lot less distracting. There are upsides to this approach, namely, that everything can be updated on the fly. But it's not a solution without its own drawbacks.
     
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  8. Moriarte

    Moriarte Immortal

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    Despite temporary inconveniences, unified interface, such as huge monitor in the center, will become more an more important as new techs will find their way into future cars. When these cars become self-driven, monitor will serve as entertainment/education/communication portal while on the trip. Big fan of mechanical aspects of older cars myself and I don’t see a reason for some of them not to stay, while complementing the central idea - big screen in the middle.
     
  9. Skwink

    Skwink FRIIIIIIIIIITZ

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    I drive a 1998 Camry. When the original owner bought it, the car had a nice stereo for the time. However when I got it in 2019 the old ass stereo had begun to suck, and was outdated. So I went to a local shop and got a modern stereo put in for $250. I could've done it myself but I hate dealing with the dozens of wires you've got to hook up correctly.

    This is what I don't like about the giant built in screens in new cars. They're nice now but what are we gonna do with them in 21 years?
     
  10. Hygro

    Hygro soundcloud.com/hygro/

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    Do what my friend did with his 2003 m3 and, previously, his 2002 S-class. Take out the old screen/gear and put in a new one. In the Mercedes he put in a screen from a few years later and in the Beamer it’s entirely new but built to fit his exact model to replace the old console.
     
  11. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    Tesla's main problem is that it is controlled by a a guy who behaves like a narcissistic psychopath. As psychopaths go that is far from the worst case, but is carries the tremendous problem of a irrational fear of honestly admitting mistakes.

    Look at the ongoing slander suit against Musk over his repeated false allegations about Vernon Unsworth. He has tried to explain it away as having been misled by a "private investigator" he had hired for $52,000... after he made the original accusation! His statements in the witness stand are worth reading to judge his character:

    Musk the pedophile expert! It gets better:

    Does Musk have Peter Pan complex, as well as Trump-level narcissism, and feared Unsworth might jump him? :confused: He actually tried to claim he felt threatened by the "sort of pedo-looking guy"? :rolleyes: Before being pushed by the lawyer into recognizing that:

    He also seems afraid that someone might suggest he tried to shove a real submarine up his ass:

    He does not regret the slander, just keeps insisting against the plain reality that he never made it:

    Later he goes into a "He seemed suspicious" broken record, seeking to deny the time when he insisted that by not having been sued (yet), Musk's accusation was true.

    The second piece of evidence, the questioning of Musk's assistant in his attempt to frame Unsworth as a pedophile, is also interesting, as an example of what people with money do in buying services and planning "leaks to the press" to advance agendas. Rather inaptly in this case, but they did try. Specifically instructing the "investigator" to:

    But it is besides the point. My point here is about Elon Musk. Musk comes across as a narcissist because in his statements he makes it all all about him, "the haters of the world" are out to get him. As one lawyer put is about Musk's type of behavior "ego so great that they think they're so omnipotent and powerful that people will do whatever they say without question". And a sociopath because when asked about the damage he caused to Unsworth, he counters with his worry about "this whole fiasco"... as if, how dare Unsworth sue Musk and expose his lie, "These have all been very damaging, and has hurt me greatly."

    These are examples that support my long-held opinion that he's not capable of being head of a stable company. He's the kind of confidence trickster who pops up when times are good and capital is plentiful. And sometimes get successful. But Tesla is supposed to be for the long haul, an industrial company. Under him it will end up failing. There are lots of niche manufacturers, on the same level as Tesla, that make a profit. Tesla keeps making losses because Musk just cannot control himself. It was the automation fantasy, "I know more about manufacturing than the whole industry". It was the self-driving fantasy. It's the diversion or resources into nepotist (Solar...) and vanity side projects. It's the megalomaniac plans to enter all kinds of markets (trucking?) instead of focusing.

    I don't know whether Musk was an asset or liability early on when he bought Tesla. Some company was bound to become famous, the time was right for electric cars to make the news and become a thing. Maybe he made Tesla be that company. But for years now he's been a liability.
     
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2019
  12. Moriarte

    Moriarte Immortal

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    I don’t think it’s such a big problem. But I get what you’re saying. There is an air of strangeness about the man. I got interested once and watched J Rogan podcast featuring Musk. It actually took a couple of glasses of whiskey and a blunt to get the conversation going at a reasonable pace. Then he mentions deep psychological problems stemming from early childhood: when he was 5 he realised that he is very much unlike many other people in that he is constantly bombarded by thoughts, while others aren’t. Then he concludes that “they’ll lock me up if they find out” so he becomes a.. restless introvert?

    That’s both an asset and liability. Being an engineer and a money bag I guess he pulled his weight when it came to investing in electric future and managing in muddy waters, close to the poverty line. He clearly has downslides too. The cave diver story highlights this destructive side of his character
     
  13. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    He's not an engineer. If he was, say, a mechanical engineer, he wouldn't have made the mess that was Tesla manufacturing bet on extreme automation.

    He studied physics... and my impression is that he's the kind of person who assumes spherical cows!
     
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  14. EnglishEdward

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  15. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    And having a well organised supply chain from other companies, tier 2, tier 3... whereby the human relation between your staff and the supplier staff is well tuned in on technical development, quality and continuous improvement.
    Every innovation needs a whole cascade upstream of trade secrets of tuning craftmen before things really go smooth AND at lowest cost.
    Car industry is not seeking the best quality solutions (that an engineer likes to start with at the drawing table) but finding together the "good enough" quality at totally squeezed out cost.

    And a car is not a vacuum cleaner
     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2019
  16. Oerdin

    Oerdin Deity

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  17. Moriarte

    Moriarte Immortal

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    Last edited: Oct 24, 2019
  18. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    And they'll fall soon enough, if past record is anything to go by. Must seems to do especially sloppy accounting in one quarter alternating with admitting hidden losses in the next. There is no way that with input prices rising and falling margins he could improve results using honest accounting. We'll see.
     
  19. Moriarte

    Moriarte Immortal

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  20. CurtSibling

    CurtSibling ENEMY ACE™ SLeague Staff Supporter

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    Most people on this thread sound like Field Marshal Kitchener in WW1, saying these new-fangled aircraft will never be more than a toy.
     
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