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The future of Tesla

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Moriarte, Sep 28, 2018.

  1. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    Using this Tesla thread for some recent info on electric cars in general because of the strong effect of Tesla on the electric car market development (and the feedbacks):

    After the Fiat-Chrysler merge deal with Renault failed... there is now a deal between Fiat-Chrysler and PSA (Peugeot, Citroen. Opel, Vauxhall).
    To be effective in a year from now, they will be the 4th biggest car manufacturer in the world.
    The scale size is helpfull for R&D cost of new electric cars



    That it is not mandatory to have scale size as OEM to produce attractive electric cars is demonstrated by a small German car manufacturer e.Go in Aachen, who is producing at a price of only 16,000 Euro.
    (compared with typical 22,000-28,000 Euro for similar small electric cars of the traditional OEMs)
    Revolutionary in the production method is the generous use of G5 5G at the shopfloor (smart-factory tech). And ofc it helps e.Go to be nearby so many big tier1 clusters for car components.

    Schermopname (326).png


    It will be interesting to see how fast electric cars go down to lowcost commodity. I guess we will see some big changes in the industrial car manufacturing landscape the coming 1-2 decades.


    Another car landscape changer going to kick in soon is pooling of cars. Can be realised commercially, can be realised with neighborhood-village associations.
    We have in NL currently 50,000 of these pool cars, being used now by 500,000 customers (or members). In ytd 2019 115,000 new users.
    Most of these in urban areas: the low hanging fruit.
    (as context: the total amount of cars in NL is 8.5 million on 17 million people)
    To boost the change speed in rural areas (higher hanging fruit), a convenant has been finalised this week between the national and lower governments.
    This should double the amount of pool cars next year to 100,000. That higher capacity to enable better, faster penetration of the market. For 2020 users should grow to 700,000.
    To encourage this founding of pool centres, the national government subsidises 5,000 Euro per car, and subsidises consumer association actions. Lower government will provide parking places etc at attractive locations.
    And ofc those car pools will have a mix of sizes that will push a higher amount of small cars as % of the total !!!
    For a private car you have to buy a multiple purpose car, being bigger than mostly needed. When you pool... a smaller car will mostly cover your needs.
    Another effect I guess will be that using a pool car will be much more the rational "I want from A to B" decision, whereas owning a car invites, tempts to buy status extra's on top (those profit makers).


    I think that the combination of cheap small electric cars with a high marketshare for "A to B" poolcar users will have a big effect on the car manufacturing business.
    On the total year volume of cars, on the average size of the cars, on all the gadgets of the cars.

    And also on the big electric car segment
     
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2019
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  2. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

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    What is G5?
     
  3. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    oops :(

    Should have been 5G

    I have now corrected my post :)
     
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  4. Oerdin

    Oerdin Deity

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    If 95 out of 100 people hate it they won’t care as long as the other five feel they just have to have it. It is too far out there for me but it does show the company is willing to take risks plus the basic skateboard design means the body sitting on the skateboard can cheaply be changed if needed.

    That is a major advantage for electric cars compared to traditional cars.
     
  5. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

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    The skateboard concept has been around for a while, it used to be shown off for hypothetical hydrogen fuel cell vehicles but is just as adaptable to EVs. Is it actually being used by anyone right now?
     
  6. Oerdin

    Oerdin Deity

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    It is worth noting that 250,000 people have placed down their hard earned cash to pre-order the cyber truck. Again, it is not my cup of tea but it seems they will sell more than a few.

    WRT the skateboard design I honestly don’t know who is currently using them. I suspect some EV makers in China are though both Tesla and Rivian are saying their trucks will. It is actually a return to an old concept from the 1910-1940 era where they had different body makers who would slap down custom bodies or limited edition bodies on rolling chassises made buy luxury automakers. In the US Fischer (as in body by Fischer) was a major player in this game but their were dozens. You’d get the frame, suspension, drive train, and breaks from a luxury car maker then the body maker would make a custom body and interior for wealthy clients. We could see a return to this though modern regulations probably would make this old approach impossibly expensive.
     
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2019
  7. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

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    They still do that to an extent. The original Tesla Roadster was built on a Lotus skateboard. The EV/Fuel Cell concept takes the modularity to an even bigger extreme and promises to bring this to the masses but I have yet to see it put into practice.
     
  8. Moriarte

    Moriarte Immortal

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    After a crazy run up in value during past 5 months (+350% if you’re interested) Tesla is now the second largest car manufacturer on the planet behind Toyota, if we use market cap to measure. Good news keep pouring in, here’s an article with brief summary: https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/story/2020-02-03/tesla-stock-surges

    This valuation dynamic is unheard of in auto industry, which is traditionally slow to move, for obvious reasons (running a factory is expensive business). However, it is clean(-er), cost effective and, unlike it’s competitors, actually uses a lot of modern tech when it comes to electronics and software. I notice people start to grow up to that.

    If you own some Tesla stock - my respects to you! I wasn’t as smart. :)
     
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  9. PPQ_Purple

    PPQ_Purple Techpriest Engineer

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    Honestly I don't see what the hype is with electric cars. They are utterly impractical for urban use (long recharge times means that you need a garage to park it or to waste hours at a station). And that's where most of the smog is. Plus, even if every car in the world magically turned electric that would still do zero to help against climate change because that electricity has to come from somewhere. And that somewhere is in this day and age still mostly thermoelectric plants producing electricity from gas, oil and coal. All of which pollute more than your average automobile engine.
     
  10. Moriarte

    Moriarte Immortal

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    Zero, eh? You’re conveniently neglecting renewable energy sources. Electric car, electic public transport, powered by renewable energy is that perfect chemistry, which allows dramatic decrease in emissions. It is however much simpler to shout at a coal power plant, completely missing the point that combustion engine cannot be made ‘green’, not even theoretically. The electric car can be. Needs upgrades to the supporting infranstructure. Which will probably take more than one day to materialize.
     
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  11. Estebonrober

    Estebonrober Deity

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    Why do that when there is more oil to plow up!? ./s
     
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  12. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

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    Urban use is where they currently shine though. You don't run through an entire charge in one day, especially if it's urban driving. Topping off a bit at work or while you sleep means you never even think about range if you're an urban driver.

    People think operating an EV is just like a gas car, with attendant trips to dedicated charging stations. That's not how it works at all.

    Your climate change argument is also wrong. No matter where the power is coming from to run the EV, is it almost by definition cleaner power than ICE engines. Even dirty coal achieves higher efficiencies as a power source than gas due to the economies of scale achieved by large power plants. And right now, we're not building more dirty coal plants but instead a bunch of much cleaner natural gas plants and a huge amount of solar installations.
     
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  13. PPQ_Purple

    PPQ_Purple Techpriest Engineer

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    Except topping off whilst you are working or sleeping is literally impossible. It just can not happen. I live in an apparent building and I work in an office tower. On good days, my vehicle is parked within the same city block. And I take public transit to work because driving and parking at my place of work is just not practical. There ain't no extension cord that long in the market.

    That is the point of what I am saying. Electrric charging is incredibly practical if you have a house and garrage to park your car over night and leave it plugged in like you would your mobile phone. They are incredibly impractical if you don't.

    Not really no. Bottom line is that combustion engines which convert chemical to mechanical energy directly are always going to be more efficient than using a power plant to convert it to mechanical energy which than gets converted to electrical energy which than gets transferred over power lines to be than converted back into mechanical energy. Not only is your basic energy source the same but you get losses with transit and conversion.

    That depends heavily on your region, environmental factors and local laws and priorities.

    Yes, in a world of infinite free clean energy electric cars would be great. But the only way that's going to happen is if everyone gets back on the atomic train. And we can both agree that this is sadly unlikely.
     
  14. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

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    I have lived in multiple apartment buildings and held multiple jobs and never had an issue. My anecdote beats your anecdote up. :D
     
  15. PPQ_Purple

    PPQ_Purple Techpriest Engineer

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    Explain how to get a charging cable running to a car parked in a spot that's technically within the same city block, but only technically from a high story window and I'll believe you.
     
  16. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

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    Infrastructure to support EVs is not static and that not everyone lives in areas that are unfriendly to EVs from an infrastructure standpoint. The infrastructure being rapidly deployed country-wide. Some places are slower than others to catch on but it's a matter of time at this point. It helps that the basic infrastructure is an outlet in its most basic form. And there is nothing stopping you from negotiating to install a charger in your car stall, if you have a stall. It's a bummer that you don't get to keep that if you move, but the cost savings relative to gas pay it off relatively quickly. And in most instances, installation costs only between $500 and 2000. If you are buying a luxury car (which most EV's are at this point), that amount isn't necessarily a deal breaker. But regardless of whether or not you make that investment, companies and municipalities are.
     
  17. Hygro

    Hygro soundcloud.com/hygro/

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    So many empty and free charging stations in the Tesla dense Bay Area and Tesla sparse San Antonio.
     
  18. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    Tesla will carry on so long as stock markets continue exuberant. But is is still a company that cannot turn a profit without selling "carbon cret«dits". Still a company that cannot produce cheap EV.

    The average car currently gets 10+ years of use. Transition to EV will necessarily be very slow because they remain too expensive to allow for any fast change. Under current policies people can't afford to change quickly, or at all.

    And if you really want to be environmentally friendly, ditch the car. Reduce the overall fleet size, introduce more mass transport and easier renting for occasional needs. Promoting simply a wholesale replacement from ICE to EV is not about environmentalism. It's about pretending.
     
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  19. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

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    Not everyone can switch to EV quickly, even if we need them in our future. One way of helping is to not borrow heavily when buying new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Borrowing less (for an older car) means that you are fundamentally less dependent on us keeping it a gasoline world. If you go long on ICE, then you're naturally setting yourself up to oppose the necessary changes. AND, we cannot make those changes without hurting you.
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2020
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  20. Narz

    Narz keeping it real

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    Making cities more friendly to bicycles, pedestrians & scooters and more hostile to cars is a good step.
     
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