The future of Tesla

I completely disagree. Not only are they not leverage to the hilt but their ability to pay is growing far faster than their debt. This CNBC article might help you get a better factually based inderstanding.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...analysts-had-to-say-about-tesla-earnings.html
I mean....

Come on...

From your own link -

3Q:18 possibly the best quarter TSLA may see in a while ... Many of these elements, particularly mix, are peaky in nature, and will likely fade in the future, so the burden of proof remains on TSLA to generate core underlying earnings and cash flow absent peak factors.

While TSLA claims it will be profitable and cash flow positive going forward, we do not see that as likely with declining prices. TSLA also claims to have no plans for a capital raise; however our view on a Q4 or 2019 capital raise is unchanged as Tesla will need to invest to expand Fremont roduction, build a China factory, ramp Model Y and expand infrastructure.

There’s no question Q3 was impressive nearly all-around, but what the quarter likely won’t settle is the prevailing debate around Model 3 volume/ASP sustainability into next year (tax credits, trim mix post launch), or lingering legal/regulatory risks that hover over a still stretched balance sheet, in our view.
 
An interesting aspect of the Q3 results is that $189 million of $312 million profit is from regulatory credit sales. First, this looks like a ten fold increase in credit sales over the same period last year which leads me to wonder if they stock-piled credits. Second, how much longer does Tesla have before auto makers have enough ev sales that they don't need to buy Tesla's credits?

Finally - on MBAs - you know Elon is famously against MBAs and sees the degrees as completely useless and those that pursue them to be kind of dumb?

I've read this a number of times and have always found it strange. MBAs come in many varieties and some are quite talented. Why blanket discount this segment of candidates?
 
https://www.csmonitor.com/Commentar...merica-Puritan-values-must-replace-MBA-values

This has been a popular opinion in some circles for some time. I myself find the notion interesting. Why is a MBA telling people how to make cars when they cannot even change the oil on said car?
You don't necessarily need to know the ins and out of a particular product in order to market it. World Championship Wrestling was legendary for making - and later losing - more money than any wrestling promotion in history, and it was run by second-string commentator Eric Bischoff at the time. Oddly enough, the more he learnt about wrestling, the less effective he became at running a wrestling company.

An MBA should be good at management. Management is a skill, and you don't always need too know what you're managing in order to manage it. I was the most successful manager in the history of my local Domino's (record profits baby!) and I did not know how to make a pizza.

Not that I'm defending MBAs. I've met several of them, and they were the usual human mixture of smart people and idiots.
 
https://www.csmonitor.com/Commentar...merica-Puritan-values-must-replace-MBA-values

This has been a popular opinion in some circles for some time. I myself find the notion interesting. Why is a MBA telling people how to make cars when they cannot even change the oil on said car?

The old GM was very stacked with MBAs and that did help them cut costs but it resulted in cars no one wanted to buy much less drive. The car companies run by car guys and engineers just tend to have much better cars.
 
https://www.csmonitor.com/Commentar...merica-Puritan-values-must-replace-MBA-values

This has been a popular opinion in some circles for some time. I myself find the notion interesting. Why is a MBA telling people how to make cars when they cannot even change the oil on said car?

That you can’t know anything about cars because you have an MBA is quite the assumption.

Secondly, as it turns out, you often don’t need to know that much about gritty details to have a successful business. Some of the most successful home builders did not come from the construction industry, some of the most successful app developers did not have a comp sci background. I’m an engineer too and as much as I wish it weren’t true, you don’t need to be an engineer to be successful in management at a technology company. You mainly need common sense, curiosity, ability to learn etc.
 
That you can’t know anything about cars because you have an MBA is quite the assumption.

Secondly, as it turns out, you often don’t need to know that much about gritty details to have a successful business. Some of the most successful home builders did not come from the construction industry, some of the most successful app developers did not have a comp sci background. I’m an engineer too and as much as I wish it weren’t true, you don’t need to be an engineer to be successful in management at a technology company. You mainly need common sense, curiosity, ability to learn etc.

I was being a bit obtuse in my example obviously. Of course you don't have to know the details of a business to push the paper of the business. You'd probably make a better pizza though if you had experience actually doing it though.

It still feels dirty that some MBA swoops in and takes a position, that before the MBA was made, was generally promoted from within. Did you read the article? Its all before my time, this Puritan way thing, but its interesting. Also the idea that MBAs necessarily focuses on finance means its part of this larger arc since 79' that the finance part of the economy has taken all the profits. I can't defend the argument that its guilty partly for the carving out of the middle class, but the sentiment is definitely there.

https://www.epi.org/publication/charting-wage-stagnation/
 
Management and engineering are different skills. You can have both naturally too a certain extent but training helps.
I have an engineering degree and have carried out mostly engineering functions but I have received management training.
A successful business would have a mix of skills with the people aware of the knowledge of others and their own strong and weak points.
 
Here's the reality: Since tye 1960's B-schools have been pimping this idea that a good manager can use generic management principles any where and so will be good at any business. Even businesses which they don't really know a ything about. That doesn't tend to be true especially in complex businesses such as car making. Sure, any MBA can identify that a solid rear axel is cheaper to make than a rear multilink suspension but they seldom seem to understand the exact teade offs they are making in order to get those cost savings. In short, they don't know enough to know if the trade offs they are making are good or bad ones. Those cars end up dying a death by a thousand cuts and end up being the 1992 Oldsmobile no one ever wanted, who originally had to he sold at massive discounts (read loses for manufacturer) to get them off dealer lots, the people who drive them quickly figure out the car is garbage, and a few years later the brand dies because everyone has learned never to trust it. Btw Olds was the brand most dominated by MBAs at old GM.

Sorry, but the more you know about the business the better you are at running a business and generic "management principles" will not enable you to engineer a car customers want to buy. It helps if you know enough to actually know which compromises you are making.
 
MBAs are valuable degrees economically and virtually worthless technically.

There's no reason why MBAs have to be the sole avenue for picking up management skills. They might be a good way to obtain connections and open up new doors, though.
 
Here's the reality: Since tye 1960's B-schools have been pimping this idea that a good manager can use generic management principles any where and so will be good at any business. Even businesses which they don't really know a ything about. That doesn't tend to be true especially in complex businesses such as car making. Sure, any MBA can identify that a solid rear axel is cheaper to make than a rear multilink suspension but they seldom seem to understand the exact teade offs they are making in order to get those cost savings. In short, they don't know enough to know if the trade offs they are making are good or bad ones. Those cars end up dying a death by a thousand cuts and end up being the 1992 Oldsmobile no one ever wanted, who originally had to he sold at massive discounts (read loses for manufacturer) to get them off dealer lots, the people who drive them quickly figure out the car is garbage, and a few years later the brand dies because everyone has learned never to trust it. Btw Olds was the brand most dominated by MBAs at old GM.

Sorry, but the more you know about the business the better you are at running a business and generic "management principles" will not enable you to engineer a car customers want to buy. It helps if you know enough to actually know which compromises you are making.

First, I'm going to correct the stereotype that's persisted throughout this conversation of "the MBA who manages but doesn't understand his industry." My position is that an MBA who is valuable is one who is smart and learns the principles of an industry. As I said before, MBAs are perfectly capable of understanding how cars work, how to perform an oil change, and how to help streamline manufacturing processes. If you're an MBA and you can't understand how cars works, you're probably a moron and not worth hiring. Most likely, an MBA won't have a PhD-level understanding of chemistry or chemical engineering, but that doesn't mean they can't have a detailed understanding of industrial gases and all the things they're useful for.

I'll make a larger point that this isn't just about MBAs. What I'm saying applies to people of any educational background: business, law, engineering, history, and other liberal arts.

Secondly, you do not need to be from an industry or type of business to succeed in or disrupt that industry. We have countless examples to prove this. Ray Kroc had never managed a restaurant when he bought and transformed McDonald's. Travis Kalanick did not have experience in the taxi industry (nor was he a trained programmer) when he shattered it with Uber. Elon Musk had never built or designed a rocket when he founded SpaceX. Airgas (a major gas supplier now owned by Air Liquide) was founded by a lawyer with no experience in industrial gases. Eli Broad was an accountant before he founded one of America's largest home builders. I could go on. Loyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs has degrees in history and law, not business or finance. People with intelligence, common sense, and willingness to learn about an industry can often be successful in a type of business they lack experience in. It also helps if they can hire/work with and learn from people who are more experienced. But lacking background is not generally disqualifying. Failure to learn, think, and be coachable is.

My experience is that engineers harbor resentment towards people they perceive as business types. I'm an engineer and I know because I thought this way all the way through college. I clung to my sense of expertise and bristled at perceived trespassers from lesser majors. However, at some point you realize that it's not true and your expertise is only marginally special. Intelligent people of any background with a willingness to learn can figure out the basics of engineering/manufacturing and be useful in various capacities at an engineering/tech company.

MBAs are valuable degrees economically and virtually worthless technically.

There's no reason why MBAs have to be the sole avenue for picking up management skills. They might be a good way to obtain connections and open up new doors, though.

For the record I do not believe MBAs are taught whole a whole lot. However, I do believe people who happen to have MBAs can be valuable by virtue of character traits that extend beyond their MBA education.

Also, getting an MBA is by no means the "sole" avenue for picking up management. I don't think many companies operate that way despite the perception in this thread that they do.
 
Elon Musk may have never built a rocket before founding SpaceX but he did read the rocket science literature starting at the textbook level that gave him the needed knowledge base to choose the right people at the right prices. And that is definitely not how MBAs are taught to operate complex engineering projects.
 
Elon Musk may have never built a rocket before founding SpaceX but he did read the rocket science literature starting at the textbook level that gave him the needed knowledge base to choose the right people at the right prices. And that is definitely not how MBAs are taught to operate complex engineering projects.
MBAs are taught management skills. Some of them use those skills well, and others don't. That is really no different from any other degree. I once knew a guy with a Doctorate in Social Studies who was dumber than dirt; he just happened to be good at passing exams, writing essays, and other university requirements, and did an original thesis. Outside of that one small speciality - car "hoons," which is Australian for; a guy that acts like a douchebag behind the wheel - he was a damn moron.

There are plenty of MBAs who are highly talented managers who bring a lot to the table at any business. There are also plenty who are total morons who probably only got the degree because daddy paid for it. And there are plenty of people with those same management skills who never studied for an MBA.

Years ago Tyra Banks went to Harvard Busness School. Tyra Banks, who was already a self-made multi-millionaire and probably more qualified to teach the course than the professor doing so. But she was having trouble getting hired for positions outside of fashion because she didn't have an MBA. The issue is the fact that degrees themselves are only as useful as the person holding them, but that these accreditations are treated by business's as far more important than they actually are.
 
Last edited:
...
Also, getting an MBA is by no means the "sole" avenue for picking up management. I don't think many companies operate that way despite the perception in this thread that they do.

Very nice point. I'm convinced at least a bit more then previously, although its not like I was under the delusion that MBAs were going to disappear. My feeling is that companies should take their employees and promote them getting MBAs so they feel like they can promote from within the company. I say this because the healthcare company I work for certainly wants the piece of paper to show you can manage (probably silly), but they also are willing to help you get that paper (I only wish they'd make it easier).
 
Very nice point. I'm convinced at least a bit more then previously, although its not like I was under the delusion that MBAs were going to disappear. My feeling is that companies should take their employees and promote them getting MBAs so they feel like they can promote from within the company. I say this because the healthcare company I work for certainly wants the piece of paper to show you can manage (probably silly), but they also are willing to help you get that paper (I only wish they'd make it easier).
This is more common in Australia, I think. A lot of our leading generals and admirals were paid to get management degrees, for example. Although I find it a little concerning that a senior general would need a management degree; how the hell do you make it to general unless you already understand man management?
 
Elon Musk may have never built a rocket before founding SpaceX but he did read the rocket science literature starting at the textbook level that gave him the needed knowledge base to choose the right people at the right prices. And that is definitely not how MBAs are taught to operate complex engineering projects.

Right, which is why I’ve emphasized willingness/ability to learn as the critical skill and mentioned hiring or meeting people who have more experience.

Elon and SpaceX are a particularly unique example what I’m trying to explain. I most likely know more about Elon Musk and SpaceX than anyone in this thread aside from Hobbs so I’ve fully considered that example. I don’t want anyone to read my example list and latch on to a particular example. The broader point is that we’ve seen a lot of people being successful in industries they have little background in as long as they require the aforementioned skills.

Emphasis again on the fact that MBAs are really just a subset of the larger group of people who accomplish this. I’m not trying to argue that MBAs are superior. In fact, I don’t believe this at all. I’m saying that there are people who happen to have MBAs who are smart and possess these skills. These people should be considered as candidates on an individual basis and not discredited as the MBA charicture that people on this thread believe in.
 
I do not follow Tesla that closely nor do I have any connections there, for the record. I am probably more informed than the average joe but I am not an expert on that company. The opposite is true of SpaceX but that doesn't spill over to Tesla other than my general knowledge about Musk and his business practices.
 
and not discredited as the MBA charicture that people on this thread believe in.

It should be noted that this is a very common impression of the degree by the working class and the professional class. "People on this thread" is belittling the point being made a bit, in my opinion anyways.
 
Back
Top Bottom