The Streak is Ended!

[Farm Boy]

We'll see!

 

[FriendlyFire]

Translation: The US will let the PRC roll on Taiwan just like it let Russia roll on Crimea.

Peace with honor.

If only Republicans were in charge, US would have invaded another two random countries to show the whole world how strong and powerful it is. Then it can pass some tax cuts and deregulate the banks to show the world how libertarian free market is the best system in the entire world.

China with its one broken down carrier and no carrier planes will invade Taiwan for sure. No way the US and its 12 carrier groups are outnumbered and cannot win.
What with its fighters planes two generations behind the US, I am sure that China will be invading any day now.

 

[BenitoChavez]

If there's 1 indisputable fact in this world its USA #1

 

[Cheezy the Wiz]

Yeah. It was pretty sneaky the way that Russia secretly infiltrated the Crimea by smuggling in hundreds of thousands of men, women, and children. Russian citizens masquerading as Ukrainians who then eventually voted to secede after being discriminated against for decades, without anybody even having a clue what was actually occurring.

So you think the same thing is now happening in Taiwan?

How much tin foil does this Cold War conspiracy theory need?

Hey, this is exactly why Winner believes in strict immigrant regulation, because of just such a scenario.

 

[Farm Boy]

China with its one broken down carrier and no carrier planes will invade Taiwan for sure. No way the US and its 12 carrier groups are outnumbered and cannot win.
What with its fighters planes two generations behind the US, I am sure that China will be invading any day now.

The question is not if the US can this decade defeat a conventional arms invasion of Taiwan by the PRC. The question is would we. Can we credibly be believed when we stand by Taiwan as a military ally? The answer used to be "definitely." Now I think it's "maybe." And I think that maybe gets more maybeish every year. Is that whackadoodle crazy?

 

[Azale]

The question is not if the US can this decade defeat a conventional arms invasion of Taiwan by the PRC. The question is would we. Can we credibly be believed when we stand by Taiwan as a military ally? The answer used to be "definitely." Now I think it's "maybe." And I think that maybe gets more maybeish every year. Is that whackadoodle crazy?

Taiwan has been at the center of American foreign policy for half a century. Ukraine never has been, and strategists during the fall of the USSR warned the US, NATO, and Europe about extending their alliance structure to Kiev because of that.

I think there is a tremendous burden of proof on you to prove Taiwan's independence has diminished in importance, especially to the point where the answer to your question is "maybe" instead of "absoflubbinglutely"

 

[Farm Boy]

You might be right Azale. But I do think it's questionable whether Taiwan's independence is anywhere close to as important as friendly economic terms with the Chinese, much less the costs of direct confrontation. Perhaps if the Chinese follow the current pattern of pulling back on cooperation as a developing customer market in favor of greater monopoly in servicing that market domestically a one-sided customer-supplier relationship will become less attractive given growing wages amongst the Chinese worker.

 

[BvBPL]

If only Republicans were in charge, US would have invaded another two random countries to show the whole world how strong and powerful it is. Then it can pass some tax cuts and deregulate the banks to show the world how libertarian free market is the best system in the entire world.

China with its one broken down carrier and no carrier planes will invade Taiwan for sure. No way the US and its 12 carrier groups are outnumbered and cannot win.
What with its fighters planes two generations behind the US, I am sure that China will be invading any day now.

I'm not saying that a Republican would have been any better. Crimea was very much a damned if you, damned if you don't situation. I don't know what a better solution would have been.

However, Obama's treatment of the issue at his recent West Point address was very much a Chamberlain-esque peace with honor, peace in our time statement. Obama spun the Russian occupation of Crimea as if it was a vicotry for the West, which is clearly isn't. What is objectionable is not so much Obama's treatment of the substaintive issues as much as how he spun it.

As to China, an observer would need to have his head stuck very far down a very deep hole to avoid noticing that the PRC has steadily been attempting to expand its sphere of infulence. The PRC has never renounced a claim to Taiwan nor has Taiwan claimed to be a nation independent of the mainland. Reunification is the likely eventual end result for the two Chinas, but how and when that goes down remains to be seen.

 

[Formaldehyde]

As to China, an observer would need to have his head stuck very far down a very deep hole to avoid noticing that the PRC has steadily been attempting to expand its sphere of infulence....

Right. A few longstanding border disputes are "attempting to expand its sphere of influence".

...Reunification is the likely eventual end result for the two Chinas, but how and when that goes down remains to be seen.

Of course it is:

More than 64 percent of people polled in a Taiwan Indicator Survey Research (TISR) poll are opposed to eventual unification with China, while 19.5 percent are for it, results showed on Friday.

After cross-analyzing the results to surmise the views of respondents between 20 and 29 years old, TISR general manager Tai Li-an (戴立&#23433 said that the proportion of those opposed to eventual unification rose as high as 82 percent, compared with 64 percent overall.

 

[BvBPL]

Dissonance between the current public sentiment and the avowed public policy of the PRC and Taiwan is all the more reason to keep a close eye on the situation. While the status quo remains stable at present, things could blow up real fast if the face of change. The PRC has not been shy about vocally asserting its sovereignty over Taiwan and conducting conspicuous military maneuvers in the area whenever a pro-independence Taiwanese faction rises.

 

[Commodore]

Translation: The US will let the PRC roll on Taiwan just like it let Russia roll on Crimea.

Peace with honor.

Funny you should mention that, because I have my own theory on the matter. I think we will let the PRC roll over Taiwan, but I think we will do so because of some sort of backdoor agreement we have with the PRC. I think the deal is that we don't interfere in the Taiwan situation and in return China will look the other way if we ever have to roll on North Korea.

 

[BvBPL]

That would be a violation of the Taiwan Relations Act. Such an action would be an overt violation of US law.

 

[Commodore]

That would be a violation of the Taiwan Relations Act. Such an action would be an overt violation of US law.

Which is why it would be a backdoor deal that the public would never know about. Plus all laws have loopholes. I'm sure there is some way our government can legally weasel its way out of our obligation to Taiwan.

 

[FriendlyFire]

I'm not saying that a Republican would have been any better. Crimea was very much a damned if you, damned if you don't situation. I don't know what a better solution would have been.

However, Obama's treatment of the issue at his recent West Point address was very much a Chamberlain-esque peace with honor, peace in our time statement. Obama spun the Russian occupation of Crimea as if it was a vicotry for the West, which is clearly isn't. What is objectionable is not so much Obama's treatment of the substaintive issues as much as how he spun it.

As to China, an observer would need to have his head stuck very far down a very deep hole to avoid noticing that the PRC has steadily been attempting to expand its sphere of infulence. The PRC has never renounced a claim to Taiwan nor has Taiwan claimed to be a nation independent of the mainland. Reunification is the likely eventual end result for the two Chinas, but how and when that goes down remains to be seen.

What did you expect that Russia having just gone into Afghanistan and then botched up there occupation are thinking right now that America is in Afghanistan and then botch up the occupation and is currently hemorrhaging money and lives for the last 13 years.

You think America is showing it strength to the world ?
Or you think America has just shot itself in the foot and is looking for a "peace with honor" way out again ?
Republican could take control again and then STOP the planned withdrawal in 2016, Maybe America will stay for another 15 years just hemorrhaging more money and lives to prop up the place. Would that be preferable ?

Clearly armerica is weary of yet another botchup invasion, it is still very well able to deploy it massive airpower, kosovo style to literally place another country under siege. Iam sure everyone with half a working brain is aware of this. Hell even if the US sent several carrier task force just to Blockaid china sea, then China would suffer massively. And that is just deploying that air power defensively.

 

[Antilogic]

Right. A few longstanding border disputes are "attempting to expand its sphere of influence".



Of course it is:

Yes, there are some long-standing border disputes over islands and China is a key player there. However, look at the buildup of the Chinese navy, especially in submarines and new carriers. While their current ships aren't much of a match for the USN, they are clearly trying to modernize and build a blue water fleet.

 

[GoodGame]

I think this is just political talk, as usual. In my view (anyway) US military/political/threatfactor influence on the planet has lessened (which is good for the planet and the normal US citizen) but this was not a result of benevolent policy. It either was the outcome of US societal weakening (which personally i don't view as that much related, cause a weakened power can be also prone to export its problems through war), or some other plan involving the same, and i don't trust Obama to be genuine in the role of peace-loving president at all.

I'd say it was more about debt spending and global economic problems, but also unwillingness to turn into a full-fledged military state. I doubt it was a significant change in the moral character of the US.

 

[Traitorfish]

Is it taken for granted, in the United States, that a decline in the international power of the United States is a self-evidently bad thing?

Are you really a nation of megalomaniacs?

I don't think that you are. You don't really act that way, or at least most of you do not. Which makes it even more strange that, for the purposes of public discourse, you all feel obliged to pretend that you are

 

[Commodore]

Is it taken for granted, in the United States, that a decline in the international power of the United States is a self-evidently bad thing?

Are you really a nation of megalomaniacs?

I don't think that you are. You don't really act that way, or at least most of you do not. Which makes it even more strange that, for the purposes of public discourse, you all feel obliged to pretend that you are

Not really, at least not for me. I would actually welcome the idea of the United States settling into a sort of "UK status". Powerful enough that nobody really wants to mess with us, but not so powerful that the rest of the world comes to resent us for it.

 

[Farm Boy]

Is it taken for granted, in the United States, that a decline in the international power of the United States is a self-evidently bad thing?

Are you really a nation of megalomaniacs?

I don't think that you are. You don't really act that way, or at least most of you do not. Which makes it even more strange that, for the purposes of public discourse, you all feel obliged to pretend that you are

In as far as power grows out of the barrel of a gun, in as far as Europe and the United States share many social ideals regarding equality and quality of life compared to some parts of the world, in as far as it would be nice to live in a world that widely comes to share some of those ideals, and in as far as Europe is often perceived as being lackadaisical in contributing to the earlier referenced allied power, then yes: it's not entirely unwarranted to be concerned regarding the increasing relative power of some societies. However far in as far is, depends.

 

[Antilogic]

Is it taken for granted, in the United States, that a decline in the international power of the United States is a self-evidently bad thing?

Are you really a nation of megalomaniacs?

I don't think that you are. You don't really act that way, or at least most of you do not. Which makes it even more strange that, for the purposes of public discourse, you all feel obliged to pretend that you are

Anyone in elected office is, so yes.