[RD] The US Environmental Protection Agency

[onejayhawk]

I'm sorry that environmentalists don't comport to your stereotype. I will endeavour to act more 1 dimensional in the future so you may better make fun of us.

No worries. You're doing fine.

I'm not sure what this has to do with anything, considering that corporations are essentially the antithesis of "market forces."

OK. One more in that column.

Good grief! It really isn't. It's...(counts on fingers)...less than 23 years away. That, believe me, will vanish in a flash.
I have some underpants that are older than that. (I actually haven't. At least, none that haven't been consigned to the rag bin ages ago. But I do have some favoured jumpers that old.) Mind you, if you're pointing out that something substantial needs doing about the global climate change long before then, I agree.

23 years is a fully biological generation. In tech it could be as many as three paradigms. What did your phone do 23 years ago? Was it portable?

J

 

[Borachio]

It's also easily the lifetime of a car. Provided you take reasonable care of it.

But I was talking about the subjective experience of 23 years for a human being.

It really isn't much time at all.

You could, of course, achieve quite a lot with it. (If you weren't as careless as I am.)

But still wonder where all of it went.

 

[Silurian]

Good grief! It really isn't.

It's...(counts on fingers)...less than 23 years away.

That, believe me, will vanish in a flash.

I have some underpants that are older than that.

(I actually haven't. At least, none that haven't been consigned to the rag bin ages ago. But I do have some favoured jumpers that old.)

Mind you, if you're pointing out that something substantial needs doing about the global climate change long before then, I agree.

I have some jumpers over 1/3 of a century old.
They are very warm so most winters I do not wear them now.

 

[JollyRoger]

23 years is a fully biological generation. In tech it could be as many as three paradigms. What did your phone do 23 years ago? Was it portable?

J

From another perspective, there is a greater than 23 year age difference between the President and the First Lady.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

I'm sorry that environmentalists don't comport to your stereotype. I will endeavour to act more 1 dimensional in the future so you may better make fun of us.

This

Plus OneJay it's hard to argue against the fact that current polluters are allowed to externalize their environmental and health costs which skews the free market heavily.

 

[Perfection]

Nothing is going to replace ICEs in the short term. Longer term, who knows? That's why they call it future tech.

J

Right now with current tech we have viable electric vehicles. We do not require significant future technology breakthroughs to replace a large percentage of new automobiles. As the industry ramps up to larger scales costs will continue to come down.

 

[FriendlyFire]

23 years is a fully biological generation. In tech it could be as many as three paradigms. What did your phone do 23 years ago? Was it portable?

Computing power doubling every few years ?
Because if you look at other tech such as basic car engines, the increase in tech is a lot slower

 

[hobbsyoyo]

I'm not actually sure that's true. You'd have to go back and look at the trends from the early 1900s to see what the technology did before it basically platueued and we settled into incremental improvements.

Early ICEs were terrible with a capital T. Plus you'd have to look at a host of metrics (combustion efficiency, horse power, torque, pollution) to get the full picture versus really just charge density for electric vehicles. (Electric motors having reached a plateau long ago relative to battery technology)

For that matter we are probably reaching the plateau point for computers - we can't shrink them much mure, just stack more chips in a unit. Just like you have to stack more cylinders in an engine. The only other option once the plateau is reached is to move onto a completely different technology (quantum computers and electric vehicles, respectively) and move up those exponential curves.

 

[onejayhawk]

I'm not actually sure that's true. You'd have to go back and look at the trends from the early 1900s to see what the technology did before it basically platueued and we settled into incremental improvements.

Early ICEs were terrible with a capital T. Plus you'd have to look at a host of metrics (combustion efficiency, horse power, torque, pollution) to get the full picture versus really just charge density for electric vehicles. (Electric motors having reached a plateau long ago relative to battery technology)

For that matter we are probably reaching the plateau point for computers - we can't shrink them much mure, just stack more chips in a unit. Just like you have to stack more cylinders in an engine. The only other option once the plateau is reached is to move onto a completely different technology (quantum computers and electric vehicles, respectively) and move up those exponential curves.

You start badly. Technology has never plateaued or settled into incremental improvements. Some sectors have matures, but others take their place on the edge. Computers have not plateaued, only reached the limits of an old paradigm. You call that "completely different technology" which is not necessarily true. It could be the workaround of a bottleneck.

Still, with regard to electric vehicles, you are correct. At most, current tech will support small, strictly local vehicles. Rural or industrial use is impractical. Freight is a different order of magnitude. If you are planning to replace 18 wheeled tractor-trailer rigs in the next 25 years, think again. Aircraft are also a distant objective.

J

 

[Borachio]

Can I have a quantum electric vehicle, please?

As for 18 wheeled vehicles, are they strictly necessary for long haul freight?

In the UK, all that stuff could go by rail. It's about half the price and takes twice as long, but there's no reason for it to be hauled by diesel vehicle.

Diesel vehicles which clog the roads up and make everyone cough and splutter.

 

[onejayhawk]

Can I have a quantum electric vehicle, please?

Sure. That will be $50,000 down. Expect delivery in 2110.

J

 

[Arakhor]

At most, current tech will support small, strictly local vehicles. Rural or industrial use is impractical. Freight is a different order of magnitude. If you are planning to replace 18 wheeled tractor-trailer rigs in the next 25 years, think again. Aircraft are also a distant objective.

Even 'proper' sci-fi writers were shocked by the advent of the transistor, making their otherwise hard-science vacuum-powered stories suddenly obsolete. Battery power has doubled in the last 20 years and could easily double again too. This applies to scientists, so goes approximately ten-fold for Internet pundits: If an elderly but distinguished scientist says that something is possible, he is almost certainly right; but if he says that it is impossible, he is very probably wrong.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Sure. That will be $50,000 down. Expect delivery in 2110.

J

Mine costs $65/mo.

There was a $5k down payment, not $50k.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

You start badly. Technology has never plateaued or settled into incremental improvements. Some sectors have matures, but others take their place on the edge. Computers have not plateaued, only reached the limits of an old paradigm. You call that "completely different technology" which is not necessarily true. It could be the workaround of a bottleneck.

Still, with regard to electric vehicles, you are correct. At most, current tech will support small, strictly local vehicles. Rural or industrial use is impractical. Freight is a different order of magnitude. If you are planning to replace 18 wheeled tractor-trailer rigs in the next 25 years, think again. Aircraft are also a distant objective.

J

Technologies do plateau dude.

When was the last time the atl atl was improved?

The rest of this post is nonsense.

 

[onejayhawk]

Mine costs $65/mo. There was a $5k down payment, not $50k.

Clearly not the same model. Is yours eco-friendly. It sounds like a do at home kit.

Technologies do plateau dude. When was the last time the atl atl was improved? The rest of this post is nonsense.

You're kidding right? The basic design of an atl could be greatly refined on a home PC, and the potential materials are vastly different. I could construct a spear thrower that could triple the distance if I wanted to do a science fair project with one of the kids. More realistically, a hobbyist could make it into a business. http://www.atlatl.com/ The other way to look at it is that a muscle powered projectile thrower has been replaced by rifled firearms, or grenade launchers.

Individual tech plateaus. Tech as a whole has never come close. Maturation in one area allows new developments in a different area. I think there is a game based on it, Civ something. Sorry, but you are underwater on this one.

J

 

[Silurian]

You're kidding right? The basic design of an atl could be greatly refined on a home PC, and the potential materials are vastly different. I could construct a spear thrower that could triple the distance if I wanted to do a science fair project with one of the kids. More realistically, a hobbyist could make it into a business. http://www.atlatl.com/

You have obviously never used a spear thrower.
They work by extending the length of your arm so you get more leaverage with your swing.
You can make the spear thrower longer to get more leaverage but you really need to be holding the spear as you throw it so that you line it up with the spear thrower. If the spear is not lined up with the spear thrower the force will not go down the spear so it goes straight but make it tumble.
You can make the spear longer but then it gets heavier so will not go so far and it would be long a thin so would be more difficult to aim.

The other way to look at it is that a muscle powered projectile thrower has been replaced by rifled firearms, or grenade launchers.

Individual tech plateaus. Tech as a whole has never come close. Maturation in one area allows new developments in a different area.

So you do agree with hobbs

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Silurian, your last line is spot on. The point of my post was missed in that exchange.

OneJay I drive a Chevy spark ev, not a homemade death trap.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Technologies do plateau dude.
When was the last time the atl atl was improved?

Genetic Engineering to make a stronger Humans ?
Maybe we should Genetic Engineer smarter Humans first, so we can stop the stupidity

 

[onejayhawk]

Genetic Engineering to make a stronger Humans ?
Maybe we should Genetic Engineer smarter Humans first, so we can stop the stupidity

We won't even allow disease resistant plants. Why would we consider tampering the human genome. That would be like trusting the science.

Silurian, your last line is spot on. The point of my post was missed in that exchange. OneJay I drive a Chevy spark ev, not a homemade death trap.

We agree. I had not realized at first glance your cost was similar to mine assuming a 1% inflation. Still, that is a bit optimistic don't you think? At 2.25% it figures close to $100/month.

You have obviously never used a spear thrower. They work by extending the length of your arm so you get more leaverage with your swing. You can make the spear thrower longer to get more leaverage but you really need to be holding the spear as you throw it so that you line it up with the spear thrower. If the spear is not lined up with the spear thrower the force will not go down the spear so it goes straight but make it tumble. You can make the spear longer but then it gets heavier so will not go so far and it would be long a thin so would be more difficult to aim.

You are repeating what I referenced. Why?

So you do agree with hobbs

Occasionally. The guy's not a robot, regurgitating the party line without thought.

J

 

[FriendlyFire]

We won't even allow disease resistant plants. Why would we consider tampering the human genome. That would be like trusting the science.

Nah we should completely deregulate all genetic engineering, people should be allowed to release any new genetic species into the wild to propagate
What could possibly go wrong ?

Comeon you know why, they have to be tested