[RD] USA Senate - 2016

[caketastydelish]

Her vp pick is very conservative and doesn't even remotely share Sanders platform. She has not demonstrated a willingness to go along with the wishes of Sanders supporters, so why should we trust her?

 

[Arakhor]

Because in a two-party system, the lesser of two evils is often by far the better choice.

 

[Bootstoots]

Moderator Action: Back to Senate discussion please. Stuff about the presidential election belongs in that thread, except as it relates to Senate elections.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I just read an interesting tidbit. During a rally in Illinois Trump took an open slash at Senator Kirk, the Republican incumbent Senator. Kirk made the tough choice that really was his only shot at reelection and came out against Trump. Rather than acknowledging that as the pragmatic move to try to maintain his party's control of the Senate, the Republican nominee chose to demonstrate that his thin skinned baby side is firmly in charge.

So, we are a month plus a bit away from election day. Trump is in yet another self inflicted crisis in the polls. If he crashes and burns again on Sunday, which seems reasonably likely, the gap could open wide enough to pose a serious threat to far more secure incumbents. If they can't win with the weight of Trump on their necks, and throwing him off leads to him openly attacking them, what chance does that leave for them?

I think we might be seeing a catastrophe for the Republicans that even the most optimistic Democrats didn't really expect.

Now if we can just find a way for Trump to make enough time to torpedo all the house Republican rats that have jumped off of his ship.

 

[Lexicus]

I just read an interesting tidbit. During a rally in Illinois Trump took an open slash at Senator Kirk, the Republican incumbent Senator. Kirk made the tough choice that really was his only shot at reelection and came out against Trump. Rather than acknowledging that as the pragmatic move to try to maintain his party's control of the Senate, the Republican nominee chose to demonstrate that his thin skinned baby side is firmly in charge.

So, we are a month plus a bit away from election day. Trump is in yet another self inflicted crisis in the polls. If he crashes and burns again on Sunday, which seems reasonably likely, the gap could open wide enough to pose a serious threat to far more secure incumbents. If they can't win with the weight of Trump on their necks, and throwing him off leads to him openly attacking them, what chance does that leave for them?

I think we might be seeing a catastrophe for the Republicans that even the most optimistic Democrats didn't really expect.

Now if we can just find a way for Trump to make enough time to torpedo all the house Republican rats that have jumped off of his ship.

Keep trolling his FB pages talking about what traitors the Republicans who don't support him are.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Keep trolling his FB pages talking about what traitors the Republicans who don't support him are.

Good idea. For the past 24 hours I've been concentrating on how Mike Pence stabbed him in the back to further his own 2020 campaign, but I'll start including that.

 

[AdrienIer]

NC NH Nevada Missouri Pennsylvania and Indiana seem really close, Trump crashing could make them end up all Democrats for an astounding 53-47 lead in the senate

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Where it gets interesting is in places like Ohio. It isn't close now. Consider the resources being poured into Ohio.

Trump crashes, and it starts getting close. Other states are tipping heavily, so Ohio becomes "nice, but optional" for Clinton, so she can afford to shift some of her focus in the state to really stumping for Strickland. It starts getting closer and Portman is forced to counter the attacks tying him to the falling Trump to stop the bleeding...but when he does it prompts Trump to attack him.

Coming back from a 12 point deficit in a month seems too absurd to even consider, but the Trump factor opens a totally unexpected door.

 

[metalhead]

I just read an interesting tidbit. During a rally in Illinois Trump took an open slash at Senator Kirk, the Republican incumbent Senator. Kirk made the tough choice that really was his only shot at reelection and came out against Trump. Rather than acknowledging that as the pragmatic move to try to maintain his party's control of the Senate, the Republican nominee chose to demonstrate that his thin skinned baby side is firmly in charge.

So, we are a month plus a bit away from election day. Trump is in yet another self inflicted crisis in the polls. If he crashes and burns again on Sunday, which seems reasonably likely, the gap could open wide enough to pose a serious threat to far more secure incumbents. If they can't win with the weight of Trump on their necks, and throwing him off leads to him openly attacking them, what chance does that leave for them?

I think we might be seeing a catastrophe for the Republicans that even the most optimistic Democrats didn't really expect.

Now if we can just find a way for Trump to make enough time to torpedo all the house Republican rats that have jumped off of his ship.

This highlights another problem with having an "outsider" at the top of your ticket - he doesn't care the slightest bit what happens to Paul Ryan's House majority, or which party controls the senate. Neither thing affects Donald Trump at all. Normally when you have a loyal party guy at the top who is going to take a shellacking, that guy plays good soldier, and campaigns in a way to preserve down-ballot candidates as much as they possibly can from the carnage at the top. Trump has no such loyalty to the Republican party. It's not even clear that he won't actively sabotage GOP candidates along the lines Tim mentions above, as a parting shot to a party apparatus that never really embraced or supported his candidacy.

The problem that candidates like Rubio face now, is that the Senate campaigns are in full swing. It's too late to renounce Trump. He kept himself looking viable just long enough to tighten the noose around the neck of every vulnerable Senate candidate, to the point they are left praying that the trap door jams. If the current polling trends continue, and voters really are going to renounce Trumpism in a way that might surprise even me, then it's so, so simple to just say about every last one of these people, "You supported this dangerous racist and his bigotry and misogyny, and you need to answer to the voters of this [state,district] for it. Explain to them why you felt like that was good for America, and for them specifically."

There are even rumblings that Democrats are set to go on the air in all of the swing House districts with advertising specifically tying House candidates to Trump.

 

[onejayhawk]

Here is a question I will be posting in two threads. How will the Presidential election interact with the Senate races where both are close, e.g. PA, NH, FL, NV, IN, and WI? Several of the Senate races have Republican incumbents. Will that favor or hinder Trump and vice versa?

J

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Seen on Trump's Facebook page:

LOLOLOLOLOL...man! Dingbat Donny, any, and I do mean ANY, other candidate would be withdrawing in disgrace right about now. But they are politicians. YOU aren't a politician, so I expect you to hang in there to the very end and COMPLETELY destroy the Republican party. Right to the very last congressman. GO MAN GO!!!!

 

[Arakhor]

And that wasn't you?

 

[Timsup2nothin]

And that wasn't you?

Well...

Much as I would like to take credit, I was busy getting banned over a series of comments that were a Donald Trump quote about Anthony Weiner with Trump's name inserted. I didn't think I was any more hostile than I've ever been, but I got blocked. I think the campaign recognized that their usual approach of just letting the faithful shout down interlopers wasn't going to cut it and put someone on block button to "clean up."

 

[AdrienIer]

The Florida Senate polls are getting tighter and tighter, and Rubio is down to being at ~ +3 over Murphy. A win in Florida would give the Democrats a lot of breathing room for 2018 where they have to defend 5 seats in red leaning states.

 

[onejayhawk]

The Florida Senate polls are getting tighter and tighter, and Rubio is down to being at ~ +3 over Murphy. A win in Florida would give the Democrats a lot of breathing room for 2018 where they have to defend 5 seats in red leaning states.

And six more in tossup states, 25 in all vs 8 for the Republicans. It looks a lot like 2014.

J

 

[Timsup2nothin]

The whipsaw is getting going now. Do you distance yourself from Trump to avoid being dragged down by his dying campaign and face the risk that Trump will retaliate?

 

[danjuno]

I only see 2 tossup states in 2018: FL and OH.

As for the 5 Red seats, let me say this about my state: Anybody who gets in Joe Manchin's way will make but a faint squishing sound when the Manchin machine rolls over them.

 

[AdrienIer]

Well the states like Colorado Wisconsin Pennsylvania or Virginia are potentially winnable by a good R senate candidate (especially in a mid term red wave) while their EV reliably go to the Dem candidate

 

[metalhead]

Bob Casey is not going to lose his Senate seat. PA has turned hard blue in statewide races over the past couple of years, and Casey is just a really good fit for the state both politically and personally. The state has really shifted, even since 2010. The Republicans just don't have the midterm advantage here any more.

2018 is going to be a fascinating year. The national GOP is likely to be lost in the weeds for a while trying to find itself, but they have stocked benches in many states with good potential candidates for national office. It's hard to see the national party being united and strong enough to put together any kind of wave.

 

[AdrienIer]

Even if you guys think Casey and Munchin are safe, they, with Baldwin (WI), Kaine's successor (VA), Brown (OH), Heidkamp (ND), Tester (MT), McCaskill (MO), Donnelly (IN) and Nelson (FL) can be targetted by republicans. And only Heller in NV is a potential target for the democrats. If they only lose 4 seats in 2018 the democrats will be happy about the result.