Zardnaar
Deity
She's one of the higher profile ones but I suspect she would lead the Dems to catestrophic defeat. Assuming she won a nomination.
Wouldn't be surprised if she puts here hat in the ring in the next 12 years or so.
Who do you want to see as the 47th POTUS and why?
- Thread starter Aiken_Drumn
- Start date
She's one of the higher profile ones but I suspect she would lead the Dems to catestrophic defeat. Assuming she won a nomination.
Wouldn't be surprised if she puts here hat in the ring in the next 12 years or so.
Edmund Ironside
White Rabbit Object
Race for 2024. Betting odds:
"Former POTUS Donald Trump remains the betting favorite at +250 but the gap is closing between himself and DeSantis. Meanwhile, incumbent president Joe Biden has dropped to third place, at +550, amid cratering approval ratings."
www.covers.com
DeSantis continues to close in on Trump. All the revelations for Jan 6th commission no doubt continue to damage Trump. Just imagine if Trump hasn't lost his head follow defeat in 2020, and instead had bowed out 'gracefully' (or at least as gracefully as Trump can be at anything). He would be in prime position for a second run, but the Jan 6th incorrect and his 'big lie' may prove to be his Achilles heel.
A bit depressing that the incumbent president is only the 3rd favorite to win in 2024. Must be noted US presidents due to the incumbency bias rarely lose re-elections (only 10 in history).
Also a bit depressing that the most likely GOP candidates are a nut job popularist (Trump), or a hard right conservative who embraces all the worst aspects of the GOP playbooks 'gerrymandering, book banning, fake culture wars etc' (DeSantis). The next most likely is Pence (ugh!). You have to drop down to their 4th most likely 'Nikki Haley' for a candidate who isn't completely terrible.
If Biden doesn't run then I would hope one of these Dems runs and wins (though most are pretty unlikely):
1. Gretchen Whitmer - Lets for Michigan! The GOP must be fans of her too, as they seem to be doing everything they can to help her get re-elected as governor (5 GOP candidates disqualified after they each submitted too many fraudulent signatures, while a 6th was arrested for participating in Jan 6th insurrection)!
2. Beto O'Rourke - I'm a fan (he was my guy in 2020 Dem primaries), but not helped by people misrepresenting/lying about what he said about guns. Also he is starting to become the US political version of the British tennis player Tim Henman (coming close but never quite winning)
3. Andrew Yang - The right kind of political outsider (he was my guy after O'Rourke dropped out, my favs did not do well)!
4. Pete Buttigieg - That's a Buttibomb! (
)
5. Cory Booker - Looked good in 2020, still seems like a good candidate. When Mr. Beat phoned every single senator, he was the only one to send a personal reply, (
- 9:28)
6. Al Gore - The Greens are never getting into the white house, so he is the next best thing.
7. Gavin Newsome - Well known, solid candidate.
8. AOC - Would need a great PR team as there is so much negative misinformation about her, plus she doesn't help herself sometimes. But she checks all the right boxes.
"Former POTUS Donald Trump remains the betting favorite at +250 but the gap is closing between himself and DeSantis. Meanwhile, incumbent president Joe Biden has dropped to third place, at +550, amid cratering approval ratings."
Election Betting Odds - 2024 US Election Betting Odds
Here are the presidential election odds to become the next president of the United States in 2024. See the favorites for U.S. election betting odds, including Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
www.covers.com
DeSantis continues to close in on Trump. All the revelations for Jan 6th commission no doubt continue to damage Trump. Just imagine if Trump hasn't lost his head follow defeat in 2020, and instead had bowed out 'gracefully' (or at least as gracefully as Trump can be at anything). He would be in prime position for a second run, but the Jan 6th incorrect and his 'big lie' may prove to be his Achilles heel.
A bit depressing that the incumbent president is only the 3rd favorite to win in 2024. Must be noted US presidents due to the incumbency bias rarely lose re-elections (only 10 in history).
Also a bit depressing that the most likely GOP candidates are a nut job popularist (Trump), or a hard right conservative who embraces all the worst aspects of the GOP playbooks 'gerrymandering, book banning, fake culture wars etc' (DeSantis). The next most likely is Pence (ugh!). You have to drop down to their 4th most likely 'Nikki Haley' for a candidate who isn't completely terrible.
If Biden doesn't run then I would hope one of these Dems runs and wins (though most are pretty unlikely):
1. Gretchen Whitmer - Lets for Michigan! The GOP must be fans of her too, as they seem to be doing everything they can to help her get re-elected as governor (5 GOP candidates disqualified after they each submitted too many fraudulent signatures, while a 6th was arrested for participating in Jan 6th insurrection)!
2. Beto O'Rourke - I'm a fan (he was my guy in 2020 Dem primaries), but not helped by people misrepresenting/lying about what he said about guns. Also he is starting to become the US political version of the British tennis player Tim Henman (coming close but never quite winning)
3. Andrew Yang - The right kind of political outsider (he was my guy after O'Rourke dropped out, my favs did not do well)!
4. Pete Buttigieg - That's a Buttibomb! (
5. Cory Booker - Looked good in 2020, still seems like a good candidate. When Mr. Beat phoned every single senator, he was the only one to send a personal reply, (
6. Al Gore - The Greens are never getting into the white house, so he is the next best thing.
7. Gavin Newsome - Well known, solid candidate.
8. AOC - Would need a great PR team as there is so much negative misinformation about her, plus she doesn't help herself sometimes. But she checks all the right boxes.
Joij21
🔥Deny, Defend, Depose!🔥
Lol. I like how all the left leaning people here seem to ignore the fact that the economy is trash now and most Americans are going to blame it (and already have) on Democrat incompetence since they are in charge of both the Presidency and the Congress.
Any blame on Republicans would make no sense because they control neither the Senate nor the House. Lack of any accomplishment is the result of pure laziness among Democrats who sit on Capital Hill.
DeSantis has the momentum. Trump also tends to have Lady Luck on his side, so he can't be underestimated yet (at least not until he's dead).
Any blame on Republicans would make no sense because they control neither the Senate nor the House. Lack of any accomplishment is the result of pure laziness among Democrats who sit on Capital Hill.
DeSantis has the momentum. Trump also tends to have Lady Luck on his side, so he can't be underestimated yet (at least not until he's dead).
Rg339
Prince
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More than 50% of Americans have no idea who DeSantis is. We’ve seen this before: there’s some candidate whom the politicos talk about because the media says they have a shot. Fred Thompson, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee. Of course, they don’t. They lack both charisma and name recognition. This guy is gonna flop if Trump runs, mark it down.
Some media magnates like this dude, and they’re floating him. Right wing voters will flock to Trump once the actual show starts, magnates’ll see the way the wind blows and head back.
Nobody has done this to my mind. I lean left and mentioned both Biden and Harris have a record that makes them vulnerable. Other posters have mentioned Trump’s chances of victory as plausible.
Joij21
🔥Deny, Defend, Depose!🔥
It's just my own personal bias at play. I would prefer DeSantis over Trump because I know Trump is crazy and far too egocentric to the point he'll happily stop (or rather attempt to stop) the vote count of a legitimately elected President. Which by the way is a complete and blatant violation of the Constitution, but then immediately hides behind the claim that it was in fact Biden who was unconstitutional by rigging the election thus justifying his own law violating?! It's Bull****!!!
I am genuinely surprised the Democrats who are now in power chose not to hunt him down for that. It would benefit them if they did because too many stupid people have faith in the Don and yet they only pretend to pursue justice but never do. Instead the focus on the storming of the Capital when the actually incriminating evidence is Trump's phone call to Pence.
That phone call alone is the really scary and unconstitutional thing yet the Democrats are too stupid to use that as what is clearly the obvious smoking gun to send Trump to prison. Either the Democrats are too stupid to conduct a proper investigation, they have something to hide that they're worried would be revealed if they actually prosecuted Trump, or they don't care because as long as Trump is still swimming around they can use fear of him to rally their own base. It might be a combination of all three to be honest.
No one controls the Senate in most instances, since it takes 60 votes, meaning it easier to block things than get things done. Thus the GOP can block things from getting to Biden's desk. Plus, the economy is not totally trash - the job market is better on the employee end. It's about time given hw out-of-balance things have become since Raygun. Guess it sucks to be an employer.
Explain how the economy is trash please. How are you measuring it?
Probably inflation, which is kind of funny, since Biden has had the worst inflation numbers since Raygun. I thought Raygun was the greatest President ever (except for maybe the thrice-married, multi-bankrupt, twice-impeached, two-time popular vote loser). Does this whining about inflation under Biden diminish Raygun? I can predict what the Raygun inflation response will be, but leftists aren't allowed to use that argument.
Zardnaar
Deity
Simar thing here but it's not actually the PMs fault.
BUT she's the one in power and the face of it so she's gonna wear it.
Any country facing elections in 2022-23 it's not gonna be good for whoever is in charge left or right.
They might survive but will lose numbers.
Politics 101.
Economy was better under Trump but he had nothing to do with it.
Joij21
🔥Deny, Defend, Depose!🔥
The 60 votes is simply a precedent rule, there is nothing in the Constitution that necessitates it. 2/3rds majority is only needed if a law gets vetoed by the President and they want to overturn the veto. 3/4ths (I think) if it's a change to the Constitution.
Democrats could simply go nuclear (which is an option they can legitimately use as Republicans have threatened to use it many times) and use simple majorities to pass legislation. They already have a Democrat in the White House so they don't have to worry about vetos. The only reason why the 60 vote precedent rule exists is because it's an internal rule of the legislature that is designed to facilitate bipartisanship, which we all know no longer exists so we might as well all use the nuclear option from now on.
This would all be for normal laws to get passed, since those are easy to do when going nuclear. But instead with the whole abortion thing Democrats would prefer to focus their mental energies on constitutional issues that would have no chance of being changed unless one has 3/4ths which means convincing the majority of Republicans that abortion is actually a good thing, which is borderline impossible.
So instead they should focus on regular legislative bills such as healthcare, build back better, infrastructure, etc. And all of it nuclear, precedent and wishful thinking be damned. Otherwise the Dems just do another Obama and waste all the potential they have when in power and get zero done, thus justifying a "no talk" all "action" guy like Trump to get elected.
There I diagnosed Democrats' problems and why the end up complaining why they are always on the back foot to right wing reactionaries.
Joij21
🔥Deny, Defend, Depose!🔥
Big tech is preparing for massive layoffs. Nuff said and honestly you guys would never believe it when it does happen since originally the argument was inflation was transitory. Now lefties don't even mention inflation cause it makes their predictions look stupid. So I suspect people like you will simply ignore the economy when your peeps are still in power and then once rightwingers take charge suddenly you'll make it seem like all the crap started on day one of republican rule. Don't blame you if one's perception of reality comes from CNN, or MSNBC.
Zardnaar
Deity
Big advantage reactionaries have is they don't actually have to do anything if elected. May not be ideal for their base but they'll tolerate it vs option B the other lot.
Zardnaar
Deity
Fox is worse than CNN and MSNBC but they're bad as a non American. They're not good for ones anxiety and full of hot air and talking heads and opinions.
American news in general is fairly trash.
Interesting projection.
lol
lol
Inflation. There we go, I mentioned it. I mean @Hygro had a whole thread on it, but what would I know.
Rg339
Prince
- Joined
- Jun 3, 2022
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- 308
Job market is decent. I guess.
But it’s more complicated, a-course. Cost of living is high. The barriers to social mobility are ever expanding. A well paying gig more and more often requires a college degree. College degrees are ballooning in price. You can get a better gig, but the wages aren’t matching cost of living increases, let alone providing a shot at upward mobility.
There’s a large and increasing # of people who don’t have a real shot at upward social mobility, and they’re angry about it.
With how well tied together economic position and social life is in America, it’s ugly, and it isn’t getting any better. It’s getting worse.
Are you kidding? It is now more possible than ever to side gig your way into something that allows you to escape the corporate shackles. Wages at the lwer end have been going up. There is more competition among employers to make compensation/working conditions better for their employees.
I think the numbers hold out that social mobility is declining. I am not sure this is the best graph, but it shows something
So that pretty much measures things up to 2010 and I agree up to that point. A lot has happened since then, especially in the past couple of years.
Plus, even if true and continuing, it's a multi-decade trend. Hard to pin that on Biden.
Plus, even if true and continuing, it's a multi-decade trend. Hard to pin that on Biden.
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Rg339
Prince
- Joined
- Jun 3, 2022
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Wish I were.
Yeah. Problem is, the wage increases don’t match the cost of living increases from inflation. My forum skills are pretty weak, I dunno how to quote the articles directly in my post, and can only provide links. Gist is for most people, inflation is outpacing wage increases.
https://www.npr.org/2022/05/06/1097...ith-cost-of-living-and-could-worsen-inflation
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/05/27...rs-say-pay-not-keeping-up-with-inflation.html
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm
Last one’s a recent release from the bureau of labor statistics. From non-supervisory employees, it reports average hourly earnings went up 0.5% in June, but the consumer price index went up 1.5, resulting in a net loss. It’s down for all employees, too.
It’s about where people wanna be, what social status they wanna maintain. If you can’t afford to send your kids to college, you know their entire social environment will be different. College educated women usually do not marry men without college degrees; the lives people have envisioned for their children are not coming to fruition.
Not all of that is on Biden. Very little of it is. But top man takes the blame.
