Will there be war with Iran?

[Winner]

As for Israel, which treats everything as a possible threat, they most certainly will attack Israel.

The real question is - will we be insane enough to back them, or will we finally cut our ties?

Lobbyists in the US government tarnish our international reputation by supporting such a controversial state. I think the Arab world, being larger than Israel by a few hundred million, is more valuable than Israel.

Oh my...

1) Why would the Americans cut ties with Israel for doing their dirty work for them?
2) Iran is NOT an Arab country. Its relations with the Arab world are very complicated, ranging from open hostility (Saudi Arabia) to looking for Iran for protection (Shia muslims).
3) If you think that the US would suddenly become best buddies with the Arabs if it threw Israel overboard, you're very naive.

 

[imperialman]

When I was in Israel in September, the feeling of people I met was that Iran is definitely a threat. Many believe Israel will attack soon, which is a belief I've come to share with all the sabre rattling on all sides.

 

[Winner]

You really should have defined what you understand by "war" in the opening post.

 

[classical_hero]

I don't think the USA or UK will do anything. If we don't do anything, Britain, a far less aggressive nation, certainly won't.

As for Israel, which treats everything as a possible threat, they most certainly will attack Israel.

The real question is - will we be insane enough to back them, or will we finally cut our ties?

Lobbyists in the US government tarnish our international reputation by supporting such a controversial state. I think the Arab world, being larger than Israel by a few hundred million, is more valuable than Israel.

So you're saying that terrorism is more valuable than a fellow democracy? That is just crazy.

 

[Winner]

So you're saying that terrorism is more valuable than a fellow democracy? That is just crazy.

Your strawman is undermining an otherwise legitimate question.

 

[Terxpahseyton]

War with Iran would be total black out and everybody knows this. Even the militaristic centers of the "Western World" would face rampant anti-militarism. The people threaten everything. A really bad deal to engage into.

 

[onedreamer]

I can't help but wonder whether there will be war with Iran soon or not. Headlines like the ones below certainly make me think that there will be

well, after the most recent news I can't help but start believing it might be a possibility (I would strongly deny to myself the possibility, before). The incident at the embassy for example is a classic by the British in their numerous makeups of Casus Belli to declare war on third world countries. What does it take to have a hundred hot headed youngsters wreak havoc on your embassy? Really an easy game for the British intel.
At this point I can only think that if Iran is really close to develop the atomic bomb they manage to give UK/USA/Isreal a good reason for their planned bombing by actually showing them that they indeed could use the atomic bomb (a record that only USA can "boast" for now), much to the dismay of the population who maybe would have preferred NOT to find out.

According to some reports, the Iranian intelligence agencies have significant resources outside of their nation and are able to compel Iranian nationals living aboard to assist these agencies.

According to *most* reports, Saddam would sleep with WMDs under his pillow. The rest is (now) History.

 

[onedreamer]

So you're saying that terrorism is more valuable than a fellow democracy? That is just crazy.

I can spot a typo here. I'm unsure if you actually meant "fellon democracy" or "fallow democracy". Both would fit nicely with most present day "democracies".

 

[aelf]

Besides the armed forces there are the Guardians of the Revolution, a paralell army, or the real army. They manage the key military projects (like the missiles), and have their own navy and air forces. As the name indicates they are the real regime supporters and in many ways the real power that have to be defeated for a change to be possible. It was reported that amidst large revolts in the last election, Ahmadinejad was slapped by the Revolutionary Guard Chief of Staff for suggesting more freedom of the press.

I've heard it said that Ahmadinejad has connections to the Revolutionary Guard. It seems that any such connection is officially denied, but I wouldn't be surprised if it exists, and that a bit of politicking every which way among different factions doesn't mean Ahmadinejad has no clout whatsoever in Iranian politics.

Historically, AFAIK, the Revolutionary Guard has been more radical than the Guardian Council, so you can't really see it as merely an extension of the "regime", whatever that means.

 

[Leoreth]

Everyone who thinks that Iran is actually going to use the bomb considers them to be crazier than they actually are. Which in fact, is exactly what they wanted to achieve.

Having nuclear weapons and using them as a threat is much more effective than actually using them; on a country whose closest ally still has the capability of assured destruction while you can't even reach them, no less.

 

[Winner]

Aaaand as I said many times before, he who plays with fire will get burnt by fire. That's why we usually don't let kids and irresponsible people play with dangerous things.

 

[kochman]

Everyone who thinks that Iran is actually going to use the bomb considers them to be crazier than they actually are. Which in fact, is exactly what they wanted to achieve.

Having nuclear weapons and using them as a threat is much more effective than actually using them; on a country whose closest ally still has the capability of assured destruction while you can't even reach them, no less.

If Iran nuked Israel, do you think Obama would nuke Iran in retaliation?

I don't.

 

[Tani Coyote]

1) Why would the Americans cut ties with Israel for doing their dirty work for them?

I didn't say we would, just that I'd like to stop putting so much emphasis on Israel.

2) Iran is NOT an Arab country.

Never claimed it was. I was talking about how our ties with Israel alienate the Arab world.

If you think that the US would suddenly become best buddies with the Arabs if it threw Israel overboard, you're very naive.

Again, never claimed it would.

But not being friends with such a controversial nation would certainly be the first cobble in a long road.

Dozens of countries... or just one. Hmm. I wonder what math wiz took over our foreign policy and decided Israel was a better choice.

Then again diplomacy is about 1% reason and 99% insanity at times it seems. "Hey, the Allies outnumber us vastly but let's keep racking up enemies!" Thank goodness evil regimes tend to be led by complete idiots, or they might actually be scary.

So you're saying that terrorism is more valuable than a fellow democracy? That is just crazy.

I'm saying Israel's interests =/= ours. They can take care of themselves. We should maintain relations, but all our aid and constant backing is just insane. No nations should be that close, unless one nation is a province of another.

 

[kochman]

Never claimed it was. I was talking about how our ties with Israel alienate the Arab world.

And that makes them demented...
It's like the people who get mad at you because you are friends with someone they are mad at. Childish at best, and definitely a poor basis for international diplomacy.

 

[Leoreth]

If Iran nuked Israel, do you think Obama would nuke Iran in retaliation?

I don't.

I agree it's hard to imagine but I think he would.

 

[imperialman]

You really should have defined what you understand by "war" in the opening post.

Very good point. By war I mean any significant military action against Iran. Be it air or cruise missile strikes, armed incursions, a ground war or anything inbetween.

 

[asbestos]

If Iran nuked Israel, do you think Obama would nuke Iran in retaliation?

I don't.

Probably irrelevant, because Israel has its own nukes.

 

[Mr. Dictator]

And that makes them demented...
It's like the people who get mad at you because you are friends with someone they are mad at. Childish at best, and definitely a poor basis for international diplomacy.

You mean like the overthrowing of the Shah?

 

[kochman]

You mean like the overthrowing of the Shah?

Ummm... yeah, that's the only reason we're upset with Iran... Jeez...

 

[Ajidica]

Well, we did shoot down one of their civilian airplanes, and then gave combat service medals to the sailors because apparently shooting down a civilian Airbus is now equal to being at Midway in the Navy.

If the Iranians did something like that to us, we would have sent a few cruise missiles their way.