Will there be war with Iran?

[Winner]

How do you think they would capitalize on it instead?

I think their strategy is different and therefore they would/will use their nuclear arsenal in a way that would be a part of this strategy.

North Korea essentially wants to be left alone and that's it. The regime is blackmailing the rest of the world not because it has some great power ambitions; it simply wants to survive in its current form. Nukes (and they probably have no usable nuclear weapons as of yet) help it to both get the things they need (oil, food, other necessities) and to scare the South Koreans/Americans from taking any serious action against it.

Iran's strategy is not isolationist, it is expansionist. The country wants to assume regional leadership, and nukes are therefore perceived as both a badge of a great power, and a shield against military repercussions of its aggressive/subversive actions.

That's what makes Iran's possession of nuclear weapons so much more dangerous.

 

[Ayn Rand]

I think their strategy is different and therefore they would/will use their nuclear arsenal in a way that would be a part of this strategy.

North Korea essentially wants to be left alone and that's it. The regime is blackmailing the rest of the world not because it has some great power ambitions; it simply wants to survive in its current form. Nukes (and they probably have no usable nuclear weapons as of yet) help it to both get the things they need (oil, food, other necessities) and to scare the South Koreans/Americans from taking any serious action against it.

Iran's strategy is not isolationist, it is expansionist. The country wants to assume regional leadership, and nukes are therefore perceived as both a badge of a great power, and a shield against military repercussions of its aggressive/subversive actions.

That's what makes Iran's possession of nuclear weapons so much more dangerous.

That's a sensible analysis - it's also worth pointing out the ideological difference between the two countries. North Korea's communism is something that can be reformed and which will probably develop over time. However, fundamentalist Islam is of a far more extreme nature and has no "cure" as such - the full evil of Islamic extremism has yet to be reached, but nuclear technology is surely going to help them get there.

 

[Leoreth]

That's a sensible analysis - it's also worth pointing out the ideological difference between the two countries. North Korea's communism is something that can be reformed and which will probably develop over time. However, fundamentalist Islam is of a far more extreme nature and has no "cure" as such - the full evil of Islamic extremism has yet to be reached, but nuclear technology is surely going to help them get there.

I think it's quite the opposite. The "communist" elite in North Korea is completely entrenched in their power, keeping up the ideology mainly to derive some legitimacy for themselves. There's probably no opposition in North Korea anymore (hard to say with our limited knowledge of their domestic situation though).

Iran on the other hand has a sizeable liberal counter culture in the urban and academical youth, and opposition leaders in both the religious and political sphere that are of course kept in check, but at least tolerated as long as they don't cause too much trouble. Again, that doesn't make Iran democratic, but it still has a long way to go to become similar to North Korea in its domestic situation.

In foreign politics, their situation is at least comparable in the fact that they're quite isolated: Iran has both the West and most (Sunni) Arabian countries against it. I think it's main goals in establishing nuclear power are defensive in nature: having a bargaining chip against Israeli or Western measures such as embargos or military invention.

I don't deny that they also have an agenda for regional hegemony, but I see no way to employ nuclear weapons to further that goal directly (keeping the US from interfering as mentioned above would of course help, though). Their current strategy of destabilizing the competition by subversive actions like supporting Hisbollah or Shia majorities in Bahrain already appears to work quite well.

 

[Stephanovitch3]

There will be a war, shame really because Americans are worried they are building a nuclear bomb. Why? If they ever launched a nuclear bomb they would be subject to sanctions and criminal investigation upon impact and no doubt if Iran's target is big enough, would retaliate with forces of comparison to The American invasion of Iraq. Iran have nothing to gain apart from being jotted down into the history books as the patient revenge seeker. Sanctions will do nothing. It's about time Europe stopped following America because the global power is shifting back east after 600 years to China who don't approve of military intervention in either Iran or off topic Syria.

 

[otago]

Israel during the Yom Kippur war loaded nukes on aircraft for strikes on Cairo and Damascus, they were stopped by the USSR telling them that they would get the next dose of instant sunshine.

So the statement that Israel can be trusted with nukes is wrong.

Invade Iran, will not happen, even if the Israelis are ranting onward Christian soldiers.
A coalition to invade Iran would be made up of which countries ?

But, how great a risk is it that Israel will use nukes on a first strike on Iran.

 

[Winner]

Israel during the Yom Kippur war loaded nukes on aircraft for strikes on Cairo and Damascus, they were stopped by the USSR telling them that they would get the next dose of instant sunshine.

Buddy, The Sum of All Fears is Clancy's fantasy, not fact

But, how great a risk is it that Israel will use nukes on a first strike on Iran.

Not zero, and rightly so.

---

BTW, this has just become topical again, so:

 

[AL_DA_GREAT]

American drone illegally in Iran was shot down

The Iranians have a drone now. They are probably reverse engineering it.

 

[anandus]

American drone illegally in Iran was shot down

The Iranians have a drone now. They are probably reverse engineering it.

Shot down?
I thought they hacked it and took control of it?
Edit: According to Al-Jazeera, that is.

And I'd be more worried of Iran selling it to the Chinese and them having reverse engineering it.

 

[Rulle_Kebab]

Shot down?
I thought they hacked it and took control of it?
Edit: According to Al-Jazeera, that is.

And I'd be more worried of Iran selling it to the Chinese and them having reverse engineering it.

Hehehehe
Wouldn't it be a blast!
Chinese/Iranian drones over the US!!
Nice

 

[innonimatu]

Iran's strategy is not isolationist, it is expansionist. The country wants to assume regional leadership, and nukes are therefore perceived as both a badge of a great power, and a shield against military repercussions of its aggressive/subversive actions.

That's what makes Iran's possession of nuclear weapons so much more dangerous.

By that logic the greatest threat to the world is the USA and its nuclear weapons, because undoubtedly no country was more successful at expanding its power over the past century, militarily whenever necessary, and they're still at it.

 

[Terxpahseyton]

Threat to the world? What does this even mean? The whole of humanity seldomly shares the same threat. What Iran is a threat to are American interests. And with it European interests. So also Winners interests.
Ergo: Iran is a threat to Winner and hence needs to be stopped.

 

[Rulle_Kebab]

"Every war when it comes, or before it comes, is represented not as a war but as an act of self-defense against a homicidal maniac".
George Orwell

 

[Winner]

Threat to the world? What does this even mean? The whole of humanity seldomly shares the same threat. What Iran is a threat to are American interests. And with it European interests. So also Winners interests.
Ergo: Iran is a threat to Winner and hence needs to be stopped.

This. More or less.

Although I have maaaaaaaany issues with what America does (and is), it is still billions of times better than the Islamic Republic of Iran. Let's keep that in mind.

 

[imperialman]

I'm confused as to how the Iranians managed to shoot down a drone with minimal damage.

The RQ-170 isn't exactly a dainty butterfly.

 

[Rulle_Kebab]

Wasn't it lost? And not shot down? Prolly flew at really high altitude and then glided into iranian airspace by mistake

 

[manim]

Iran's strategy is not isolationist, it is expansionist. The country wants to assume regional leadership, and nukes are therefore perceived as both a badge of a great power, and a shield against military repercussions of its aggressive/subversive actions.

That's what makes Iran's possession of nuclear weapons so much more dangerous.

i dont think that is true the reason that iran is trying to buld a nuke is that iran needs enemys like US and Israel to blame its political and economical problems on them as you see most political prisoners in iran are charged with espionage or act against national security. without an strong enemy irans goverment cant justify its internal actions and it has nothing to do with desire to assume regional leadership


and if there is going to be a war i hope it wont happen for at least 5 years i haven't done my military service yet

 

[timtofly]

Wasn't it lost? And not shot down? Prolly flew at really high altitude and then glided into iranian airspace by mistake

It probably ran out of fuel, and "crashed" in tack. With the economy the way it is, purchasing these from China is getting harder to do, especially since US has already sold it's soul.




If history repeats itself, the more US gives to a country, the higher chance of reality, that US will go to war with that country.

 

[Silurian]

They "say" they lost contact with the drone in western Afghanistan.

Apparently they have lost two others that ended up in Iran earlier this year.

 

[r16]

now the essence of the thing is to make claims noboby will ever lift a finger to prove :

the Iranians are supposed to hack the thing to land softly , so that they can encourage their people across the globe that they are just about to solve any mystery about stealth . Their people apparently need some extra as can be deduced from Hizbullah's leader making a rare show of existence .

on the other hand Americans have already announced the drone is not as stealthy as they first they claimed it was , 'cause you know it could fall into wrong hands and America's stealth superiority was still eternal . Forever , whatever .

my piece : Iranians can not show the thing because they don't have one , unless of course Uncle Sam provides yet another for them . And it was not definitely a soft kill , things larger than fifty calibers make a mess on aerostructures . Hmm , now that ı have long been around claiming a secret American drone was filming seperatist successes against the Turkish Army , ı think it is time to say death to any RQ-170 seen around ...

 

[Conspirator]

A meaningless jab. Any declaration of war that involves the immediate deployment of troops outside of your borders is by definition offensive.




It's already 'financed', as is most US debt, through the issuing of long-term bonds that were purchased on the market. Not quite as simple as printing money.

Yeah but which institutions owns the most US bonds even more than China? Yeah... you guessed it. The Fed.

War with Iran is inevitable.