2010 World Cup Prediction Competition

[Arwon]

I might be away this weekend so I will make some R16 predictions now:

Uruguay 3-1 Korea Republic
Argentina 2-0 Mexico

(If we predict a draw what's the procedure with penalties?)

 

[Locutus]

(If we predict a draw what's the procedure with penalties?)

There is none, we only predict the results after 90 minutes. Extra time and penalties don't earn you any points.

 

[Arwon]

OK grand, was hoping that was the case.

 

[Infantry#14]

June 23:

Slovenia vs England 1:2
US vs Algeria 2:0
Ghana vs Germany 1:3
Australia vs Serbia 1-1

 

[warpus]

Slovenia vs England 0:1
US vs Algeria 1:0
Ghana vs Germany 1:2
Australia vs Serbia 0:1

 

[azzaman333]

Slovenia 0-3 England
US 2-0 Algeria
Ghana 0-4 Germany
Australia 2-0 Serbia

 

[SuperBeaverInc.]

June 23
Slovenia vs England 0-1
US vs Algeria 2-0
Ghana vs Germany 1-2
Australia vs Serbia 1-1

 

[Dudemeister]

Slovenia vs England 0-2
US vs Algeria 3-1
Ghana vs Germany 0-1
Australia vs Serbia 1-1

 

[classical_hero]

There is none, we only predict the results after 90 minutes. Extra time and penalties don't earn you any points.

Well if some predicts a draw, then they have to say which team will make it through on penalties. Also I think it should be based on the final score, whether it be at end of 90, after extra time.

Slovenia 2-3 England
US 2-0 Algeria
Ghana 0-4 Germany
Australia 3-0 Serbia

 

[Weik]

Slovenia vs England 0-1
USA vs Algeria 0-1
Australia vs Serbia 0-3
Ghana vs Germany 1-3

Paraguay vs New Zealand 4-0
Slovakia vs Italy 0-5
Cameroon vs Netherlands 1-1
Denmark vs Japan 1-0

Korea DPR vs Côte d'Ivoire 0-1
Portugal vs Brazil 0-1
Chile vs Spain 0-1
Switzerland vs Honduras 2-2

 

[Locutus]

Well if some predicts a draw, then they have to say which team will make it through on penalties. Also I think it should be based on the final score, whether it be at end of 90, after extra time.

That messes with the simplicity of the system we use here: 1 match, 1 prediction with every match (in a given round) being worth the same amount of points.

If you want to call a winner for a knock-out match you have to make 3 predictions per match: score after 90 minutes, score after 120 minutes, result of a penalty shoot-out. Either you have to roll those into one somehow which really convolutes things and takes draws out of the equation altogether (reducing the outcome to a simple binary decision), or some matches end up being worth more points than others depending on how long they go and you have to deal with questions like if you predict a win for one side after 90 minutes, do you even get to predict the other two? If not, that imbalances the scoring system in favour of draws in the knock-out stage.

And that's certainly a viable way to run a prediction competition, there are plenty of them that do it that way (like Marla's) and there are 1 or 2 relatively elegant ways to handle it (though they make more sense for two-leg knock-out rounds a la the CL), but that's just not how this contest happens to work. Both approaches have their proponents, it's a matter of preference. For possible future editions it could be worth a discussion but unless there is a massive outcry of protest, or an obvious flaw is exposed or unanticipated situation encountered, the rules were set at the start and I don't want to change them mid-way through (if for no other reason than that it would be a nightmare to update the formulas across 40 tabs on a Google Docs spreadsheet).

 

[Rashiminos]

Ghana 1:2 Germany
Australia 1:3 Serbia

 

[Locutus]

Plenty of people with 20+ points today, but curiously enough with the exception of SuperBeaverInc none of them from yesterday's top 10, so a lot of people moved up the ranks today. Azzaman remains in the lead, with 3 points on SuperBeaverInc, who climbed to 2nd place with 1 point over chegel. North King and warpus are the winners of the day with 26 points each and jump from outside the top ten straight to 4th place, 5 points behind chegel and 3 ahead of Dauphin.

Ranking after day 13 (Google doc):

 1. azzaman333    	83 (+17)
 2. SuperBeaverInc.    	80 (+22)
 3. chegel    		79 (+15)
 4. North King    	74 (+26)
 4. warpus    		74 (+26)
 6. Dauphin     	71 (+12)
 7. Loppan Torkel    	70 (+14)
 8. Solver   		69 (+17)
 8. Weik    		69 (+13)
 8. BirraImperial    	69 (+15)
11. Maquiladora   	68 (+15)
12. Locutus   		67 (+17)
12. Zoid   		67 (+13)
14. C0ckney     	64 (+16)
14. joncha     		64 (+22)
14. Red Door    	64 (+21)
17. Arwon    		63 (+17)
18. MikeH     		62 (+20)
19. OneFootInTheGrave	61 (+20)
19. Robert Plomp     	61 (+22)
19. RobWorham   	61 (+18)
22. Darth_Pugwash    	60 (+15)
22. Imran Siddiqui     	60 (+17)
24. Serb     		56 (+21)
24. Kitschum     	56 (+13)
26. siron     		55 (+17)
27. Echse    		53 (+11)
28. Wernazuma III     	52 (+17)
28. Victor Galis     	52 (+15)
30. sonorakitch    	50 (+15)
31. classical_hero    	46 (+17)
32. Bantams   		44 (+20)
33. OzzyKP     		26 (+6)
34. Infantry#14    	24 (+6)
35. Dudemeister    	20 (+8)
35. Rashiminos    	20
37. Proviisori   	17 (+7)
38. El_Cid   		 0

 

[Locutus]

Next batch of Last 16 matches:

USA vs Ghana
Germany vs England

Incidendentally, this also gives us the first quarter-final line-ups:

Uruguay/Korea Republic vs USA/Ghana
Argentina/Mexico vs Germany/England

By winning their group, the US have given themselves a very feasible path to the semi-finals...

 

[chegel]

24 June
Paraguay vs New Zealand 2:0
Slovakia vs Italy 1:1
Cameroon vs Netherlands 0:3
Denmark vs Japan 1:0

25 June
Korea DPR vs Côte d'Ivoire 1:1
Portugal vs Brazil 3:1
Chile vs Spain 0:2
Switzerland vs Honduras 1:0

 

[warpus]

/me highfives North King

 

[Locutus]

For tomorrow, I still need predictions from classical_hero, azzaman333, warpus, SuperBeaverInc., Infantry#14, Dudemeister and Rashiminos.

 

[SuperBeaverInc.]

24 June
Paraguay vs New Zealand 2-0
Slovakia vs Italy 1-1
Cameroon vs Netherlands 0-2
Denmark vs Japan 1-0

 

[North King]

/me highfives North King

Right back at you.


Changing one of my predictions for tomorrow to:

Denmark 1-0 Japan

 

[azzaman333]

Paraguay 1-1 New Zealand
Slovakia 0-1 Italy
Cameroon 0-4 Netherlands
Denmark 2-1 Japan