Lodovico Settembrini, is that you?
2018 U.S election
- Thread starter Zkribbler
- Start date
Not familiar with the novel.
You'll have to explain the point to me.
I'm sorry. I really am.
You should read Der Zauberberg for that. I really recommend it. Lodovico Settembrini is a character who considers a certain other character to be so stupid that he vocally refuses to remember the name of that character.
Zkribbler
Deity
Thanks metatron for pointing out my oversight of the previous threads. I contacted th mods and they have fixed things.
onejayhawk
Afflicted with reason
I live in this particular fight.Prognosticator of Prognosticators Nate Silversets the odds of the Democrats taking the House at 5 in 6 while their odds of taking the Senate are 1 in 3. He sets out two possible paths for a Dem Senate.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/
I, however, have my eye set on a third path, centered on Texas Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke.
Beto is currently the underdog, but he's set his sights on what he needs to win. Demographically, Texas is a near twin to California. The reason Texas is a solidly red state while California is a solidly blue state is that in Texas, Hispanics don't vote while in California, they do. And when they vote, the vote heavily Democratic. Beto is making a massive effort to register and turn out the Hispanic vote.
A poll by NBC News and Marist released last week had O’Rourke trailing by just 4 percentage points. An electronic poll released by Emerson College on Monday had the two candidates nearly tied, with Ted Cruz at 38 percent against O’Rourke’s 37 percent and more than a fifth of respondents undecided. So as Beto closes in on Cruz, the GOP is taking more and more money out of other Senate Races to prop him up.
The more successful Beto becomes, the more other GOP candidates will be defunded. This could lead to a cascade effect, wherein the GOP will lose numerous senate seats.
Beto has his hands full and Cruz hasn't started yet. So far it has been the Pacs dueling from long range. Since I fully expect Ted Cruz to be the next GOP Presidential candidate, winning this race is a priority. I will give the Democrats this much credit, O'Roark is much better than their last sacrificial lamb. I do not expect him to win but he may make Cruz exert himself.
J
538's house prediction is odd. They give the dems huge odds but in their map the dems only win ~20 seats. I think it's because so many seats are currently in the lean R category (and therefore have a non zero chance to flip) and because the general ballot polls are between 8 and 10 points towards the dems (implying a larger win than the race by race indicates)
Timsup2nothin
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Cruz having to "exert himself," ie spend a big chunk of the GOP war chest, is exactly what Zkribbler was talking about in the post you quoted but seemingly didn't read. As we know, everything is big in Texas; media markets, Hispanic population, flood zones, idiots...everything. So pumping money into a senate seat defense means pumping A LOT of money. Zkribbler is correct that such an expenditure in Texas could hurt the GOP across the board, especially since the Koch Bros and undoubtedly some other previously reliable RNC mega-donors are not supporting the party of D'ump.
I do have a question though...you say "Cruz hasn't started yet." What exactly are you looking for Cruz to do? I doubt that his name recognition in Texas could get any higher. His chosen "Rock Ribbed Conservative" identity is pretty well set in stone, so people who like that sort of BS are in his camp already while people with good sense are out, and none of them are changing either way.
Are you expecting him to start a "hey, I'm Hispanic too" campaign and try to compete for the HIspanic vote that O'Roark is trying to turn out? That seems like a path just fraught with peril in the party of D'ump. And we have to remember the Trumpists are not really firmly on his side to begin with since he is after all "Lyin' Ted," the great satan who tried to stop their hero.
I think Ted might be in a lot more trouble here than you are giving him credit for...and trying to get him out of it will take a mountain of cash.
Timsup2nothin
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Look again. They have the dems with a +18 gain just on solids, likelies, and leans. Then there are another 19 "toss ups" before you get to the lean R group. If they get all of "theirs" all they have to do is win a few of the tossups to get a majority.
I'm excited. My district, which has not sent anything but really bad Republicans to congress for my entire lifetime, is in the "likely" category with the Democrat listed as a 7-2 favorite.
It's gone from 20 to 31 since yesterday. They must have updated it
Edit : actually the lite model is still at +19
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Zkribbler
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Timsup2nothin
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Whaaaa??
Pretty cool, eh? No complacency, I'll keep pushing as hard as I can to dump Sellout Steve, but it is good to feel...what?...what is that? ...could that be? ...optimism?
FriendlyFire
Codex WMDicanious
Lying Ted whos dad Killed JFK ?
Cruz better go and raw dog a porn star while hes third wife if pregnant if he wants the evangelical family values vote /s
Christ the US had better elect a JFK or FDR as their next President, else kiss good bye to your American century and welcome the new age of Gyna.
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onejayhawk
Afflicted with reason
Cruz having to exert himself means getting out of Washington and spending time stumping.
Don't hold back. Tell us what you really think (but calm it down a tone or six).
Ted Cruz is a force that must be reckoned. The path to the White House will go through him, not past him. If Trump makes you crazy, Cruz will set you off in completely different ways.
J
Timsup2nothin
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Your fantasies about Cruz are always hilarious. The only thing Cruz ever had going for him was a seeming lock on the dingbat vote, and then he got out dingbatted by Trump. The important thing about that is the dingbats never forgive or forget. They switched to Trump, and Cruz is dead to them because he didn't immediately roll with them. To everyone else he is still a high end dingbat, and to the dingbats he is a traitor to their cause. Without that lock on the dingbat vote Cruz is hard pressed to hold Texas, so winning the presidency is totally out of his range.
*is relieved to be living in a different country and hemisphere*
Every time Cruz has opened his mouth about Beto, he has embarrassed himself. Rafael complaining about Beto going by a nickname? Pretty funny stuff there. The fact that Beto has a puncher's chance in Texas tells you everything you need to know of how weak Cruz is. He should be up by double digits without doing a thing.
onejayhawk
Afflicted with reason
That's about right. O'Roark has the same chance as an unranked club fighter vs a title contender. He needs to land a lucky punch to get in the game. It has happened, eg Norton vs Ali.
That said, you are much more impressed with Beto than I am.
J
Patine
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Wouldn't it be nice if Independents and Third Parties in the U.S. were actually viable and successful, outside of a few regional flukes and protest votes. Then American politics would actually be interesting and TRULY dynamic and worth following for anything but the collateral damage the idiots who get elected bring down on the rest of the world...
Timsup2nothin
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That's because he doesn't have the residual trail left by decades of GOP talking points running through his head like you do, Mr Independent.
