2020 Election Thread!!!!!!!!!

[Gori the Grey]

His people love him and that sort of enthusiasm is contagious.

This I doubt. Few of the many who hate him will be brought to love him by the love of the few who love him.

Then there's this:

He's providing cover while his administration is staying on program and following through on his campaign promises.

Why does a party need "cover" when delivering on its campaign promises?

 

[onejayhawk]

This I doubt. Few of the many who hate him will be brought to love him by the love of the few who love him.

What's your point? There will always be those who hate him. We have seeral in this forum. The ones that might be swayed are those that merely find him distasteful, which are few in this forum. You can say, and I do, that he only won because he was running against the worst candidate in history, because it does not end there. Now he is incumbent and he has a track record to tout.

Then there's this: Why does a party need "cover" when delivering on its campaign promises?

Seriously? Did you watch the way that GW Bush was savaged for doing basically nothing? Katrina wasn't even his fault, but he was the fall guy. Trump's administration is ripping out eight years of whatever President Obama tried to do, but functionally no one is noticing, because of all the attention on the Tweeter-in-Chief.

J

 

[danjuno]

Now he is incumbent and he has a track record to tout.

>Republican Benghazi (on the same freakin' continent no less)
>No Obamacare Repeal
>Cabinet that made Carter's look stable
>Somehow made US politics more toxic than it already was

 

[caketastydelish]

What I want to understand is why the Democrats (including the ones here on CFC) are so smug and confident that a Dem will beat Trump in 2020. That sense of entitlement is a part of how Trump managed to win in 2016, and it appears they're repeating the mistake for 2020. Take nothing for granted, and work your ass off campaigning and going door to door.

Trump himself said, "I could shoot someone in the middle of the fifth avenue and not lose any voters, ok?". Keep in mind he said this long before getting elected. We already knew what kind of man he would be before his days in office. His presidency has gone exactly how you would expect it to, for anyone who's paid even remotely close attention over the past 18 months. The Democrats need someone better than Hillary in 2020, or at the very least, different.

 

[onejayhawk]

>Republican Benghazi (on the same freakin' continent no less)
>No Obamacare Repeal
>Cabinet that made Carter's look stable
>Somehow made US politics more toxic than it already was

You aren't trying. By these standards, he'd get reelected in a walk. There are some real issues, but on this list.

#1) Not close.
#2) I think you can check this one off. We'll see, but it looks that way.
#3) Looks about normal.
#4) That's the coverage. The politics is same old, same old.

J

 

[onejayhawk]

What I want to understand is why the Democrats (including the ones here on CFC) are so smug and confident that a Dem will beat Trump in 2020. That sense of entitlement is a part of how Trump managed to win in 2016, and it appears they're repeating the mistake for 2020. Take nothing for granted, and work your ass off campaigning and going door to door.

Trump himself said, "I could shoot someone in the middle of the fifth avenue and not lose any voters, ok?". Keep in mind he said this long before getting elected. We already knew what kind of man he would be before his days in office. His presidency has gone exactly how you would expect it to, for anyone who's paid even remotely close attention over the past 18 months. The Democrats need someone better than Hillary in 2020, or at the very least, different.

I hope the Democrats come up with a decent candidate. So far, none of the names have much chance. Even worse, Hillary might try again.

Of course, things might be very different in two years. Trump might not run. A Democrat emerges as fresh voice. The economy could hit the wall. We could be in a war in Asia. The horse could learn to sing. We will have to wait and see.

J

 

[caketastydelish]

I'm almost sure Trump will run. And even if he doesn't, Pence has an even better chance than Trump.

 

[Gori the Grey]

What's your point?

My point is that any enthusiasm there is for Trump will not prove contagious.

Seriously? Did you watch the way that GW Bush was savaged for doing basically nothing? Katrina wasn't even his fault, but he was the fall guy. Trump's administration is ripping out eight years of whatever President Obama tried to do, but functionally no one is noticing, because of all the attention on the Tweeter-in-Chief.

Huh? What does Katrina have to do with Bush's campaign promises?

People are noticing. I think you've claimed you don't watch TV, but the commentary shows are running features "Is all Trump wants to do to undo anything Obama did?" This is pretty well remarked. People who hate Obama may again vote for Trump in 2020. People who want to see a party do things instead of undo things likely will not.

 

[Sommerswerd]

I think you've claimed you don't watch TV

Get em' Gori, get em...

 

[danjuno]

By these standards, he'd get reelected in a walk.

Yeah, remember Jimmy Carter getting reelected in a- oh wait.

 

[caketastydelish]

Carter was up against an incredibly good opponent. By "good" I'm not judging whether Regan himself was a good or bad person, but by Reagan's electability. Regan was a very popular candidate that would be tough to beat.

 

[onejayhawk]

My point is that any enthusiasm there is for Trump will not prove contagious.

Fair enough. To be sure, only a sector of the population will be open to Trump at all. However that was true a year ago. In case you did not notice, his non-contagious charm won the election.

Huh? What does Katrina have to do with Bush's campaign promises?

Indeed. Why was he attacked for Katrina, because it was not a campaign problem or something he did wrong?

I'm almost sure Trump will run. And even if he doesn't, Pence has an even better chance than Trump.

Pence has to beat Cruz first.

People are noticing. I think you've claimed you don't watch TV, but the commentary shows are running features "Is all Trump wants to do to undo anything Obama did?" This is pretty well remarked. People who hate Obama may again vote for Trump in 2020. People who want to see a party do things instead of undo things likely will not.

Actually I cannot watch TV. However, I have access to news sources and people who do watch TV. That said you make a good point, undoing President Obama's legacy will only go so far. Trump will eventually need something of his own. Unlike Obama, he will not get a pass for continued inability to deal with Congress. It's still early, so the issue has not had time to grow.

That said, the continuing revelations about FusionGPS and Uranium1 are money in Trump's vote bank.

J

 

[Hamilton321]

I think the biggest factors in 2020 will be how much Trump's base thinks that he has succeeded at fulfilling what they expected him to do, his health at the time(he is a very old president, this is a unlikely scenario but perhaps his health won't be so great and he will be pushed aside for a younger, healthier republican) and how the economy is perceived to be doing, especially in the rustbelt, I think the sense of well being there will be the most important in 2020.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Don't be so sure. Incumbents get elected the vast majority of the time. Bush was massively unpopular but beat Kerry because Kerry was a bad candidate. The Democrats have to come up with something good. Or at the very least, don't intentionally screw one of the candidates. Hillary really and truly felt the bern in the general election.

Yeah, I'm counting on the Democrats getting their act together and fielding a great candidate but that's probably a tall order.

 

[danjuno]

Carter was up against an incredibly good opponent. By "good" I'm not judging whether Regan himself was a good or bad person, but by Reagan's electability. Regan was a very popular candidate that would be tough to beat.

Carter would have still lost to somebody else, just not with 100> EVs. He was terrible at communicating with congress to pass legislation. If you ever get a hold of Tip O'Neil's memoirs, he mentioned that Carter knew nothing about getting along with Congress, and despite being eager to learn on a lot of subjects, he seemed to have no interest in learning how to lobby congress. No cooperation with congress = nothing gets done = you get labeled a do nothing POTUS.

 

[onejayhawk]

Yeah, I'm counting on the Democrats getting their act together and fielding a great candidate but that's probably a tall order.

I'm not a member of an organized political party. I'm a Democrat.
Will Rogers

J

 

[Hamilton321]

Yeah, I'm counting on the Democrats getting their act together and fielding a great candidate but that's probably a tall order.

I think that the candidates which are nominated by both parties in the races in 2018 and 2020 will be one of the biggest factors in which party wins and loses.

 

[Ferocitus]

I think that the candidates which are nominated by both parties in the races in 2018 and 2020 will be one of the biggest factors in which party wins and loses.

High (or low) quality candidates will be one of the major factors.
Another major factor could be how many gerry-mandered seats remain so after
legal challenges have been finalised.

 

[metalhead]

Maybe Hillary should come out and endorse Trump.

 

[onejayhawk]

Good idea. Everyone would get a good laugh.

J