2020 US Election (Part One)

[Lexicus]

Oh I don't want him to win, obviously. I don't know if he will, either, I guess I'm just engaging in some premature "look on the bright side" crap...

 

[Estebonrober]

Dude, I'm one of them. I voted for Hillary's opponent. If it had been Dick Cheney I would have swallowed hard and done it. That's how bad Clinton is.

That said, there was a lot of skepticism among Republicans. The Libertarian candidate polled three times what he did in 2012. Write-in votes exceeded the Green party. Some of it is still there--rah obviously, the Bush family, George Will, etc.--but mostly they have been won over by results.

J

J I have news for you. You’re not a centrist. Anyone who is a science and reality denying die hard is not a centrist no matter the platform they choose.

I voted centrist until I saw what Republicans behaved like the moment Obama got elected. They have not stopped being overt racist asshats since and until they do I will never vote for any of them. Since they’ve only buried their heads deeper in anti science anti human anti planet dialogue I doubt I ever go back. Something would have to break the party.

You sir are no centrist and area clear indication of how far republicans have drifted to the right for you to ever consider naming yourself as such. Rah? Yea sure he might be centrist.

 

[Bootstoots]

It's possible that he wouldn't win today, but I'm deeply unimpressed with the Democratic field, and I have a feeling about Trump. I also think that it's possible that making Trump a two-term President will get liberals to start realizing the system is broken, not just Trump.

We may see a recession between now and 2020, which would help with removing Trump. But I worry we might be in for another extended bubble-driven hyperboom, and I can only hope it comes to an end when a Republican is in office, or we're going to have trouble that makes the Trump Administration look like a utopia.

Oh yeah, that last situation gives me nightmares. It's distinctly possible that liberals in the late 2020s will remember Trump in the same way that they do George W Bush today - pretty incompetent, but not as bad in most ways as the incumbent.

I too tend to think the odds are still in favor of liberals in 2040 saying "things sort of, kind of, worked out in the end" about this era than "that was only a taste of the horrors to come". But I am definitely not certain of that. There's also a sizable chance of "things actually worked out pretty well - I didn't realize we'd actually get our [feces] together to this extent". I guess that's what it's like to live in a time of flux and uncertainty. TINA is dead, but who will replace her?

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Trump's chances rely heavily on the Democrats' willingness to grab the smallest passing toothpick and immediately commit all their resources to beating each other to death with it.

 

[rah]

As they devour their own along the way. So is Biden toast now? If people say he is toast while staying silent over Trump, they deserve to burn.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Trump's chances rely heavily on the Democrats' willingness to grab the smallest passing toothpick and immediately commit all their resources to beating each other to death with it.

Splinters for all!

I mean universal splinters.

No wait I mean government subsidized splinter premiums.

But everyone gets to keep their current splinters if they want!

...and we should jail all the splinter-sector executives for jacking up prices.

Maybe we need a public-private splinter sector hybrid system?

No that won't work; we need splinters for all!

Single-payer splinters!

Wait what were we discussing? All I know is your solution to the splinter problem is basically fascist.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

As they devour their own along the way. So is Biden toast now? If people say he is toast while staying silent over Trump, they deserve to burn.

That's who I was referring to as the latest toothpick target. By the time the Democrats get done eliminating the "disqualified" the 2020 election will probably be Trump unopposed.

 

[onejayhawk]

J is probably completely wrong about "convincing the doubters." or however exactly he's framing it, but he's absolutely right that underestimating Trump in 2020 is a huge mistake. I also think he's correct that as things stand now Trump is likely to win the election. But it's still 20 months away.

Yeah, I've moved my Trump odds up to about 40%. I think it's more likely than not that he'll lose, but I'm not at all confident about it. Things are not shaping up well at the moment.

My semi-serious "rich white guys partying" post basically contains the thesis that the irresponsible/malicious rich white guys will get reelected if the party keeps going. It's unlikely to continue all the way through 2024, but there's a lot of damage that can be done between now and then.

We are close enough to get a general read on the economy leading up to the election. It will likely be slower but not yet near a recession. Jobs are strong. Wages are rising. Trump can successfully run on the economy.

J

 

[Bootstoots]

We are close enough to get a general read on the economy leading up to the election. It will likely be slower but not yet near a recession. Jobs are strong. Wages are rising. Trump can successfully run on the economy.

J

I think that's probably about right, yeah. Black swan events are always a risk and can't be ruled out at the 18-month horizon, but there are at least no obvious storm clouds on the horizon. That's why I'm bumping my Trump odds to ballpark-40%.

He's still stuck against a fairly hard ceiling of ~45% approval, but his decent-economy floor is about ~38% and also fairly hard. A weak Democrat plus a continued strong economy might easily drive enough people into Trump's column to win, with an electoral map that looks very similar to the 2016 map.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I think that's probably about right, yeah. Black swan events are always a risk and can't be ruled out at the 18-month horizon, but there are at least no obvious storm clouds on the horizon. That's why I'm bumping my Trump odds to ballpark-40%.

He's still stuck against a fairly hard ceiling of ~45% approval, but his decent-economy floor is about ~38% and also fairly hard. A weak Democrat plus a continued strong economy might easily drive enough people into Trump's column to win, with an electoral map that looks very similar to the 2016 map.

A lot of key states in that map have turned pretty strongly blue already, based on the midterms, and the whole "strong economy" argument applied as much or more then than it is going to apply next year.

 

[Broken_Erika]

So "It's the Economy, Stupid" has become, "It's not just about the economy, stupid"

 

[Timsup2nothin]

So "It's the Economy, Stupid" has become, "It's not just about the economy, stupid"

More like "you can't just flat lie about the economy, stupid." Eight years of telling people about the "terrible economy" under Obama can't be just eradicated from the collective memory when D'ump is trying to pitch the pretty much unchanged economic reality as suddenly the greatest boom times of all times. If it was terrible when Obama was president then it still is now. If it's so awesome now then the GOP lied their asses off for the six years prior to 2017.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Trump's chances rely heavily on the Democrats' willingness to grab the smallest passing toothpick and immediately commit all their resources to beating each other to death with it.

If we were in July 2020 and Biden had the nomination wrapped up, I think this one would just be handwaived, but its so early, that folks are more likely to just groan and say oh well why bother. Anyway, yes generally speaking, the Democrats seem much more willing nowadays to immolate/hold accountable their own, for any infraction, regardless of severity, while the Republicans seem much more willing to engage in strategic forgiveness/wagon circling. Maybe its an indication that Biden was always too old, particularly in an environment where "I'm from a different era/generation" and/or "things were different back then" is treated as an unacceptable excuse.

Overall, I wish the lamestream media would start giving the Democratic hopefuls more free media and spend less time on the saga over the Mueller report. MSNBC in particular is ridiculous, literally all they talk about is the House Democrats efforts to get the unredacted Mueller report. Its so boring, and so ultimately futile... I can barely listen to them anymore. At least CNN talks about other things sometimes. If they put as much energy into covering Sanders or Harris or whoever is the flavour of the month as they put into covering Trump and the Republican Clown car last general election, the Democrats would have better chances.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Oh I don't want him to win, obviously. I don't know if he will, either, I guess I'm just engaging in some premature "look on the bright side" crap...

LOLs... I was just saying to my wife yesterday that AOC's best chance at POTUS would be for Trump to win in 2020.

It's really come to that

 

[Lexicus]

TINA is dead, but who will replace her?

IMO we are grinding the happy alternatives out of existence between the millstones of climate change and fascism. But we'll see I guess.

 

[rah]

Well another woman has come forward on Biden so he's probably toast, especially since we can expect a few more to come out of the wood work now.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Well another woman has come forward on Biden Trump so he's probably toast, especially since we can expect a few more to come out of the wood work now.

Notice that with my edits your post becomes laughably untrue in retrospect... although seeming a completely reasonable expectation at the time... so... Maybe it just shows the contrast between parties...I guess we'll see.

 

[rah]

While that fact annoys the crap out of me, it drives my wife outright crazy.

 

[Lexicus]

I've seen it in writing (like, back in 2016, 2017) that Biden's often a bit too touchy with women. I didn't exactly see "this" coming but I figured there was no way he'd survive this Democratic primary environment.

While that fact annoys the crap out of me, it drives my wife outright crazy.

In what way?

 

[rah]

The hypocrisy of Republicans with Trump when it comes to female touching of course.