2020 US Election (Part One)
- Thread starter Lexicus
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That was one of the most inoffensive, run of the mill interviews I've seen. I've never understood the critiquing of interviewers on the basis that they are asking questions which run counter to the interviewee's preferred narrative. How exactly does a candidate have the opportunity to confront their opposition's lines of attack if interviewers simply stay away from those questions? It's just the interviewer saying, "this is the argument people are using against you - please take this opportunity to make your counter-argument". The most boring interviews are the glorified infomercials where the interviewer is fawning instead of doing their job.
mitsho
Deity
Yes, that are what Interviews are for. Most viewers/readers need an explanatory part as well though. These are best made not in interview questions (but can be done), but rather sideline portraits. So, by the reporter, not by the interviewee. In short, you need both. And I get the impression that the American Media just vastly prefers the interview format. Or rather, the round the clock cable news. Whereas documentaries explaining stuff would be a rather big bonus before those confrontational questions, no?
(I didn‘t watch the video above though
)
(I didn‘t watch the video above though
)
Zardnaar
Deity
Top 4
Biden 28%
Warren 23%
Sanders 17%
Buttigieg 9%
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...7aca3c-fccd-11e9-8906-ab6b60de9124_story.html
Everyone else 2% or less.
Biden 28%
Warren 23%
Sanders 17%
Buttigieg 9%
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...7aca3c-fccd-11e9-8906-ab6b60de9124_story.html
Everyone else 2% or less.
Highly believable percentage. WaPo going against the grain, when everyone else says Biden is dead.
Also, what kind of ridiculous sample has an over 5% margin of error? Did they ask 20 WaPo employees or something?
All national polls have Biden 1rst. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/
Don't confuse the early state polls with the national ones. If all the states voted today, Biden would win the entire south convincingly while losing narrowly elsewhere, and would probably win the nomination.
The reason many people are expecting him to drop in the next months is that the dynamics are against him (and in favor of Warren currently, she's been rising for months)
Don't confuse the early state polls with the national ones. If all the states voted today, Biden would win the entire south convincingly while losing narrowly elsewhere, and would probably win the nomination.
The reason many people are expecting him to drop in the next months is that the dynamics are against him (and in favor of Warren currently, she's been rising for months)
Timsup2nothin
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Don't try to confuse him with the facts, his mind is made up.
I suppose the CNN/NBC/other network posted polls about the Iowa vote don't count as facts, but some estimate about what happens after Iowa and the other three pending primaries is fact, right?
I suppose also that 'projection' isn't a thing here.
Timsup2nothin
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The power of the Iowa caucus has been severely curtailed, and it never had all that much to do with the ultimate nomination process to start with. Iowa and New Hampshire are about revealing who is completely not viable. As long as you don't finish out of the top three or four and manage to draw at least ten percent of the vote you will still get donors. Biden will survive these early viability tests handily, and his consistent and persistent lead in every national poll is a much more telling indicator.
What will come out of Iowa and New Hampshire will be a clearing picture of whether Warren or Sanders caries the torch for the extreme left in the party. If one severely beats the other in Iowa and New Hampshire the defeated one will be strongly urged to drop out. For Warren even a big win in Iowa and a more marginal win in New Hampshire should be enough to put paid to Bernie in the eyes of the big donors, because New Hampshire will be seen as "home field advantage" and there will be an expectation that he should come in ahead of her.
I think it is a better idea to expect Bernie to win all four first primaries, and if he doesn't he should just quit. For the others... it's ok if they end up third or a "strong fourth"
She's from Massachusets, she gets almost as much home field advantage in NH as he does.
I think an underperformance in Iowa + NH by Biden would hurt him a lot. Nevada will be close as well. If he can hold out until south Carolina he'll probably be able to play for the win until the end.
I think an underperformance in Iowa + NH by Biden would hurt him a lot. Nevada will be close as well. If he can hold out until south Carolina he'll probably be able to play for the win until the end.
Timsup2nothin
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I think it is a better idea to expect Bernie to win all four first primaries, and if he doesn't he should just quit. For the others... it's ok if they end up third or a "strong fourth"
I don't see why he has to win. He does have to do significantly better than Warren though. If those two don't get sorted enough to put one of them out early then things are going to get pretty chaotic.
Timsup2nothin
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Vermont is 'rural independent' and New Hampshire shares a whole lot more commonality with them than it will ever feel for any slick talking Bostonian.
For Biden, I agree that he can't afford to underperform, but we may not set the same bar as to what underperformance looks like. If he is top three in a close three way split in Iowa and second to Bernie in New Hampshire he'll be fine...especially if those two results put fourth place finishers so deep in the weeds that they suffocate and turn it into a three way race. I'm guessing that won't happen though; fourth place will be a strong enough finish to make someone else look viable enough to carry on.
My Vermonter sister, who is very liberal, is very anti Bernie and thinks that she is not alone in her thinking.
Zardnaar
Deity
Highly believable percentage. WaPo going against the grain, when everyone else says Biden is dead.
Also, what kind of ridiculous sample has an over 5% margin of error? Did they ask 20 WaPo employees or something?
WaPo has run plenty of anti Biden articles. They seem to be pro Warren if anything.
Azem.Ocram
King
Biden would lose vs Pence
Sanders and Warren would win vs Trump
Biden vs Trump is too close to tell, Sanders or Warren vs Pence also. This is going according to states. The republicans are going to lose the popular.
Sanders and Warren would win vs Trump
Biden vs Trump is too close to tell, Sanders or Warren vs Pence also. This is going according to states. The republicans are going to lose the popular.
Zardnaar
Deity
Virginia going Democrat as well?
Very likely yes
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