2020 US Election (Part One)

[Cloud_Strife]

Other than the bitter tears of a Sanders supporter, is there anything you could shed on this theory? Trump is about the most vulnerable incumbent of all time and I see no indication that there is anyone in the running to be the Dem nominee that won't be expected to beat him handily.

Biden is barely coherent at this point and you want him to run against a man with no issues attacking even the families of deceased veterans, he's going to be slaughtered by a combination of apathy and trump verbally destroying him

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Biden is barely coherent at this point and you want him to run against a man with no issues attacking even the families of deceased veterans, he's going to be slaughtered by a combination of apathy and trump verbally destroying him

I dunno man. I saw Biden deliver a pretty great speech tonight, so I can't credit the "barely coherent." I also note that turnout today, across the board, was massive so I can't really see this apathy business either.

 

[Zardnaar]

Biden is barely coherent at this point and you want him to run against a man with no issues attacking even the families of deceased veterans, he's going to be slaughtered by a combination of apathy and trump verbally destroying him

1. Sanders isn't dead yet.

2. Sanders and Bidens numbers vs Trump are very similar.

If Biden wins and you don't vote for him (same if Sanders wins) you're part of the problem.

Assuming you want Trump gone. Whatskilling the Dems us Trump's court stacking.

For whatever reason people want to associate Biden with Trump and Nazis. See who they'll appoint to the courts though. It's kinda important.

 

[Cloud_Strife]

I dunno man. I saw Biden deliver a pretty great speech tonight, so I can't credit the "barely coherent." I also note that turnout today, across the board, was massive so I can't really see this apathy business either.

I'll be diplomatic here and say i acknowledge the existence of your opinion.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

1. Sanders isn't dead yet.

2. Sanders and Bidens numbers vs Trump are very similar.

If Biden wins and you don't vote for him (same if Sanders wins) you're part of the problem.

Assuming you want Trump gone. Whatskilling the Dems us Trump's court stacking.

For whatever reason people want to associate Biden with Trump and Nazis. See who they'll appoint to the courts though. It's kinda important.

I agree that Sanders isn't dead yet, but he does have some very serious problems to deal with.

Biden's campaign was basing their strategy on "if we come out of Tuesday down 200 or less we can make up that gap." At this point they are looking at coming out very close to even, if not ahead. Their strategy needs no changes at all. Sanders cannot look at his results so far and say "all's well, stay the course, we got this." They flat do not "got this," and if they just keep doin' what they're doing they are gonna lose. Changing strategy in March is hard.

If Warren quits it may help Sanders some. If Bloomberg quits it is a gigantic boost to Biden. Sooner or later both will quit.

Sanders has still underperformed his 2016 numbers in pretty much every contest...some by wopping huge margins. If he can't find a way to grow his support in numbers instead of just fervor he is not going to have a shot.

Those are all killers to fix.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I'll be diplomatic here and say i acknowledge the existence of your opinion.

Well, that's big of you but coherent vs incoherent really isn't much of a matter of opinion, it's a pretty objective call. So is voter turnout, which is just numbers that either are large vs the typical range or they aren't.

 

[Zardnaar]

I agree that Sanders isn't dead yet, but he does have some very serious problems to deal with.

Biden's campaign was basing their strategy on "if we come out of Tuesday down 200 or less we can make up that gap." At this point they are looking at coming out very close to even, if not ahead. Their strategy needs no changes at all. Sanders cannot look at his results so far and say "all's well, stay the course, we got this." They flat do not "got this," and if they just keep doin' what they're doing they are gonna lose. Changing strategy in March is hard.

If Warren quits it may help Sanders some. If Bloomberg quits it is a gigantic boost to Biden. Sooner or later both will quit.

Sanders has still underperformed his 2016 numbers in pretty much every contest...some by wopping huge margins. If he can't find a way to grow his support in numbers instead of just fervor he is not going to have a shot.

Those are all killers to fix.

Agree I think I was a bit more optimistic. I remember you saying the same thing about 12 hours ago.

Early votes for the ones who have dropped out don't count. Thought that would help Sanders.

 

[Zardnaar]

Well, that's big of you but coherent vs incoherent really isn't much of a matter of opinion, it's a pretty objective call. So is voter turnout, which is just numbers that either are large vs the typical range or they aren't.

La la la fake news.

Well maybe not. So turnout is good and Sanders isn't putting up 2016 numbers?

I suppose if Twitter and other places double down on calling people fascists and insulting them it's not the best way to get them to vote for your candidate.

Hollywood keeps doing it with movie marketing. I'm sure it well work next time.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Agree I think I was a bit more optimistic. I remember you saying the same thing about 12 hours ago.

Early votes for the ones who have dropped out don't count. Thought that would help Sanders.

Heck, I was pointing out the underperformance issue twelve days ago.

Edit: CNN just called Texas for Biden.

 

[Zardnaar]

Heck, I was pointing out the underperformance issue twelve days ago.

You were. As I said I was a bit more optimistic. Sanders has been packing in the crowds.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

You were. As I said I was a bit more optimistic. Sanders has been packing in the crowds.

Key point...he needs numbers, not fervor. The willingness of 10,000 people to turn out for a rally is really not an indicator of how things will go when a million people turn out to vote. It's a fair bet that not one person in ten thousand who voted for Biden today would cross the street to attend a rally for anyone, but their votes count.

 

[Zardnaar]

Key point...he needs numbers, not fervor. The willingness of 10,000 people to turn out for a rally is really not an indicator of how things will go when a million people turn out to vote. It's a fair bet that not one person in ten thousand who voted for Biden today would cross the street to attend a rally for anyone, but their votes count.

True but it worked for Trump.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

True but it worked for Trump.

Not really. Trump did it, but that isn't what worked for him. If only his rallyers voted for him he'd have lost. I'd say the biggest thing that worked for him was the "outsider" card. The GOP, through their propaganda arm, had been beating out the same core of lies for years...some of them decades...about the Democrats while their own programs had demonstrably failed and that had become undeniable. So the country was primed to fall for an "outsider" who didn't really promise anything but to be different. Four years later there is no denying what different has wrought, so that card is dead.

I think that's really a big part of what is weighing on the Sanders campaign. In 2016 he could play that different card and even though it didn't quite carry the day it was effective. Today it just scares people. Not all of them, and not enough of them to keep him from filling an arena, but it is hurting him at the polls.

EDIT: "A Sanders adviser concedes the campaign will have to grow, pointing to younger voters as a potential area."

Step one...fire that adviser. Younger voters is the ONLY block where Sanders did well, and he flat dominated. The only way his campaign grows in that area is if they can suddenly start birthing people of voting age. They have to grow in the areas where they got blown out, or at least areas where there is competition, because those are the areas where there is actual room for growth.

 

[Hrothbern]

Sanders appears to do not that well compared to 2016

In how far did his succes in 2016 come from antipathy towards Hillary Clinton ?
Bigger than antipathy towards Biden now.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Sanders appears to do not that well compared to 2016

In how far did his succes in 2016 come from antipathy towards Hillary Clinton ?
Bigger than antipathy towards Biden now.

That's probably part of it.

 

[Zardnaar]

That's probably part of it.

There's also a growing backlash against the more extreme left in pop culture.

They might not vote for T ump to day F you but they'll vote for Biden.

I put up a little no a few weeks ago something like 80% of the right and 70% of the left are sick of it.

It peaked say 2016/17.

Giant douche vs turd sandwich.

 

[Kyriakos]

Very disappointing. I think that if Biden manages to get a plurality, Bernie will support him. Yet it still will be very difficult for Biden to win the election. And that he is senile is rather clear-cut, which will obviously hand Trump a very easy attack strategy.

 

[Hrothbern]

There's also a growing backlash against the more extreme left in pop culture.

They might not vote for T ump to day F you but they'll vote for Biden.

I put up a little no a few weeks ago something like 80% of the right and 70% of the left are sick of it.

It peaked say 2016/17.

There is also political style

We have in NL 3 political parties on the left wing: from left to leftish: Socialist Party, Green-Left Party, Social Democrats.

The SP, the Socialist Party, the most radical in its political program, gets however more sympathy from up to centre right and even right-wing voters than the Green-Left Party.
The Green-Left Party having the habit to cater its own core (bubble) by antagonising statements (that are in effect even moving many moderate voters of the Social Democrats into the arms of the LibDems or further to the right).

The SP is seen as having a genuine opinion with a down to earth mentality: they do a lot, really a lot, of volunteer community work. And they speak normal Dutch and not some academic use of words and syntax.
They get respect and trust by showing with deeds what they believe in incl that they are no money grabbers: for example SP MP's getting a net salary of 6,000 Euro, only keep 2,850 and donate the rest to the Party. City Council members donate 50-75% of their allowance to the Party (they are like volunteers after all, except having the honor to represent the Party voters in the City Council).
(is also a clear position regarding all the small nepotism up to corruption so often happening in city councils... and so undermining for left-wing parties in many countries)

Having friends is good, but a political style generating antagonism without clear benefits is just stupid.

 

[Zardnaar]

There is also poltical style

We have in NL 3 political parties on the left wing: from left to leftish: Socialist Party, Green-Left Party, Social Democrats.

The SP, the Socialist Party, the most radical in its political program, gets however more sympathy from up to centre right and even right-wing voters than the Green-Left Party.
The Green-Left Party having the habit to cater its own core (bubble) by antagonising statements (that are in effect even moving many moderate voters of the Social Democrats into the arms of the LibDems or further to the right).

The SP is seen as having a genuine opinion with a down to earth mentality: they do a lot, really a lot, of volunteer community work. And they speak normal Dutch and not some academic use of words and syntax.
They get respect and trust by showing with deeds what they belive in incl that they are no money grabbers: for example SP MP's getting a net salary of 6,000 Euro, only keep 2,850 and donate the rest to the Party. City Council members donate 50-75% of their allowance to the Party (they are like volunteers after all, except having the honor to represent the Party voters in the City Council).

Having friends is good, but a political style generating antagonism without clear benefits is just stupid.

We had something similar happen here. 10% down to 5%.

Smart polititians apologize and move on asap.

 

[Camikaze]

As much as I like Warren, she doesn't add anything to a Biden ticket. I'm hoping for Stacey Abrams. Woman, potential swing state, her big issue is voter suppression, which everyone can get behind, so gives her some progressive support, but she's a blank enough slate that it's a unified ticket.

Sanders' electability argument took a potentially terminal hit today. His case has been that he will bring out new voters. Well turnout was certainly up dramatically in Virginia, and he lost by 30 points. That's not exactly bringing out new voters in the way he wants. I would much prefer Sanders to win than Biden, but to be honest a large part of that is based on the idea that I think Biden would do poorly in the election against Trump. But today he's managed to steamroll his opposition in states where he has barely campaigned, despite his flaws being fully on display for almost a year. Maybe he'll have a better chance at winning the election than I thought.