2020 US Election (Part One)

[Bamspeedy]

So what does everybody think of Joe Biden’s comeback? Did his margin in SC have a noticeable impact on today, or was there latent Bidenism in the Super Tuesday states?

I thought Sanders would be a close 2nd in a lot of these races but Biden has really widened that gap.

Is there still a path to victory for Sanders, or is he going to come up short in the delegate plurality race?

Bootyjudge and Combsalad dropping out and supporting Biden is what lead to this, whether they did this because of his win in SC or promises/deals made to them, or combination of both, that swung everything to Biden.

Without those two dropping, Biden still gets the southeast, but doesn't win a lot of the other states. Just look at MN, Knob went from 25% or so to 5%, Biden went up probably 25% (a guess, haven't looked at numbers). Sure, eventually her delegates would be Biden's in a contested election, but with Biden running away with it now, I predict a bunch of former Bernie states following suite.

 

[Rashiminos]

Everything that is wrong in the world can be summed up by this sentence.

Name recognition and charisma are both useful components for winning a democratic election.

 

[cardgame]

You input 'democratic election', but all my output is showing is 'reality show'. Must be something wrong with the translator.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Bootyjudge and Combsalad dropping out and supporting Biden is what lead to this, whether they did this because of his win in SC or promises/deals made to them, or combination of both, that swung everything to Biden.

Without those two dropping, Biden still gets the southeast, but doesn't win a lot of the other states. Just look at MN, Knob went from 25% or so to 5%, Biden went up probably 25% (a guess, haven't looked at numbers). Sure, eventually her delegates would be Biden's in a contested election, but with Biden running away with it now, I predict a bunch of former Bernie states following suite.

Obama personally called Pete to try to get his support for Biden before super tuesday.

I don't think Biden has any worse chance against Trump than Bernie does right in this moment. A lot of people unfortunately do view Biden as more electable than Bernie but I think the evidence for being sure of anything right now is nil, and they're both pretty close. My concern is that when it becomes just Biden, and, like last night where he mixed up his sister and wife in a speech, his gaffes will be the laser focus of the entire Republican apparatus, and he's going to have a tough time. And the Hunter Biden thing is just getting started. We will absolutely have months of his "corruption" and "weird speech mishaps" get equal parts coverage in the media to Trump so that they can hold up BOTH SIDES, so when it's just him, I worry about the effects. Every Dem's lead over Trump is already shrinking massively.

 

[onejayhawk]

Name recognition and charisma are the most important thing.

Don't kid yourself. In a popularity contest like this, it can be close but we are seeing the effect of an unnamed force in the results.

Everything that is wrong in the world can be summed up by this sentence.

Not even close.

Bootyjudge and Combsalad dropping out and supporting Biden is what lead to this, whether they did this because of his win in SC or promises/deals made to them, or combination of both, that swung everything to Biden.

Without those two dropping, Biden still gets the southeast, but doesn't win a lot of the other states. Just look at MN, Knob went from 25% or so to 5%, Biden went up probably 25% (a guess, haven't looked at numbers). Sure, eventually her delegates would be Biden's in a contested election, but with Biden running away with it now, I predict a bunch of former Bernie states following suite.

The endorsement deal almost certainly swung the result in Texas and likely got Biden at least a 4+% bump in every state. That's a lot of delegates. The size of the margins in Virginia and North Carolina, on top of the wide margin in South Carolina, says clearly that Sanders lacks appeal in the south and Florida is now on the horizon.

Mayor Pete said it in the the Nevada debate--"Let's nominate a Democrat."

J

 

[Rashiminos]

You input 'democratic election', but all my output is showing is 'reality show'. Must be something wrong with the translator.

I believe they call that skepticism.

Fudging votes is the smooth-brained approach to swaying elections.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Texas voter suppression efforts have people standing in line six hours after the polls are supposed to be closed. Indication is it's not working. People will vote anyway you GOP turdbuckets, and hopefully they will remember who has them standing out there all freakin' night.

Well it doesn't work until Texas cops decide to shut down certain polling stations regardless of the lines. It sounds crazy but it's exactly the sort of 'I DARE YOU TO STOP ME' move that Trump has adopted as a cornerstone policy and the rest of the party is adopting.

And the chaos in Texas is the tip of the iceberg given all the unsecured systems that will be trialed by fire due to Moscow Mitch shutting down election security funding. Between high turnout, GOP shut down of liberal precinct voting stations, potential vote machine hacking and GOP intimidation tactics, election night is going to be brutal.

Bidens gonna be the nominee? Welp, guess it's another 4 years of Trump then.

I disagree but welcome to OT and I like your username.

She is also seen as anti-Bernie, s

By whom? Not me!

like last night where he mixed up his sister and wife in a speech

covfefe yourself

 

[Lexicus]

Bootyjudge and Combsalad dropping out and supporting Biden is what lead to this, whether they did this because of his win in SC or promises/deals made to them, or combination of both, that swung everything to Biden.

Without those two dropping, Biden still gets the southeast, but doesn't win a lot of the other states. Just look at MN, Knob went from 25% or so to 5%, Biden went up probably 25% (a guess, haven't looked at numbers). Sure, eventually her delegates would be Biden's in a contested election, but with Biden running away with it now, I predict a bunch of former Bernie states following suite.

Another contributing factor appears to be very low youth turnout for whatever reason (many Bernie people on my social media are blaming voter suppression, but I'm not sure that is the only reason).

I think Donald Trump's reelection has basically been guaranteed by these results.

And the chaos in Texas is the tip of the iceberg given all the unsecured systems that will be trialed by fire due to Moscow Mitch shutting down election security funding. Between high turnout, GOP shut down of liberal precinct voting stations, potential vote machine hacking and GOP intimidation tactics, election night is going to be brutal.

This is what I've been saying for a while but no one seems to want to talk about it. With Shelby v Holder County, a conservative Supreme Court majority, and William Barr in charge of the justice Department, there's nothing to stop the Republicans from a slew of dirty tricks that amount to rigging the election.

 

[Samson]

So Bloomberg is out. I am a bit surprised, all that money and only 1 vote. Now we will find out how honest he was about paying for the rest of the election.

Michael Bloomberg has ended his bid for the White House after a poor showing on Super Tuesday.

"Three months ago, I entered the race for president to defeat Donald Trump. Today, I am leaving the race for the same reason," he said.

Mr Bloomberg, a former mayor of New York City, has spent more than half a billion dollars in the race to become the Democratic Party's nominee.

He said he would now support former Vice-President Joe Biden.

 

[Rashiminos]

I'm shocked, just shocked that money is not a path to success in Democratic politics.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Wow, even Bloomberg is out of the race and endorsing Biden now.

The 7 candidates in the last debate is a distant dream.

That just leaves Sanders vs. Biden. (and Warren)

 

[Rashiminos]

Warren is low key hoping Biden forgets he is running for President.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

This is what I've been saying for a while but no one seems to want to talk about it. With Shelby v Holder County, a conservative Supreme Court majority, and William Barr in charge of the justice Department, there's nothing to stop the Republicans from a slew of dirty tricks that amount to rigging the election.

I must have missed you saying it before because I would like to talk about it. There will be some form of a power grab at this election, even if Trump is totally wiped out. It may not stick, but I expect at the very least that pockets of his diehard supporters will attempt to disrupt voting and he will claim the election is rigged.

I also think the possibility that he will go beyond calling the election rigged and make an outright play to stay in power is on the table. I think McConnell would side with him and I expect the GOP members of the House to participate. I also think it not unlikely that the Roberts court would legitimize the move (if successful) after the fact.

Another contributing factor appears to be very low youth turnout for whatever reason

Well then it's 2016 all over again but this time maybe we'll get a candidate that appeals to older folk.

 

[Rashiminos]

I think an impeachment of Pence after Rs win is more likely than Trump refusing to exit the White House in the event of a Dem win.

All they have to do is leave him in Mar-a-Lago

 

[mitsho]

So how big is the chance that Warren can be the compromise candidate in a 45-45-10 split?

 

[hobbsyoyo]

@Rashiminos
Yes because Trump has shut down the Federal Election Commission, stacked the courts, is setting up parallel government institutions controlled by cronies and openly solicited foreign interference just so he can walk away in a fair loss. And of course the Demonrats are whiny crybabies!

So how big is the chance that Warren can be the compromise candidate in a 45-45-10 split?

It looks a bit unlikely that either Bernie or Warren will get to 45 or 10, respectively.
It may be too soon to call it but trends have not been good.

 

[Rashiminos]

Yes, the black robes holding court are totally going to vacate their benches and prostrate themselves to Big T. It hasn't happened yet, but if he appoints enough they're totally going to forget oath and country to lionize such a model statesman.

Spoiler :

We get it, you don't trust Republican nominees. From the viewpoint of lifetime appointees, Presidents are a bit more disposable in the retirement sense.

Out of curiosity, I looked up impeachments of federal judges and the last one occurred in 2010. There have been 5 judicial impeachments in the last 40 years. Maybe one of the trumpointees will get tried.

 

[Gori the Grey]

You input 'democratic election', but all my output is showing is 'reality show'. Must be something wrong with the translator.

Nope. They're synonyms.

 

[Sommerswerd]

So Bloomberg is out. I am a bit surprised, all that money and only 1 vote. Now we will find out how honest he was about paying for the rest of the election.

I heard on CNN this morning that Warren is "reassessing" with her campaign staff, after yesterday's results.

Sounds like an announcement that she is dropping out is coming soon, but she needs to reach out and find out if Klobuchar has already locked up Biden's VP spot and/or if Bernie is willing to offer her the same, before she drops out.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Warren couldn't even beat Bloomberg in Cali.

As of right now, if she gave her delegates to Bernie then the delegate count would be

Biden 391
Sanders 349
(subtract 25 from Sanders and 9 from Biden [bloomberg] for the actual current total)