2020 US Election (Part One)

[Sommerswerd]

Warren couldn't even beat Bloomberg in Cali.

Forget beating Bloomy in Cali... she couldn't even come in second... in her home state!! Even Tulsi managed to clear that low bar.

Honestly Warren not winning MA was a deal-breaker for her. There's literally nowhere to go from there.

 

[Socrates99]

Has she dropped out yet? Her candidacy doesn't even make sense anymore.

Not that I think her voters would turn to Bernie like other people do. I think a lot of her voters were "I like progressive ideas but Bernie is a bridge too far" people. Not sure where they'll swing once she drops.

Biden's been out of the Senate long enough that his rotten record is becoming ancient history in the minds of Americans. Bernie will likely trounce him in the Rust Belt where trade is a big deal. That's the only place where the Obama halo is heavily tarnished by TPP. In the rest of the states he really could just ride on his association with Obama. Bernie's not out but this is ugly.

Not looking forward to an election with handsy uncle Joe vs Trump. Two septigenarians arguing over who's gropier with women, who's mental faculties are failing faster and who's more corrupt. Yay.....

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Warren is just trying to forecast the future before she exits. The most important thing for her career right now is endorsing the eventual winner and how she frames that endorsement. I think her only option is a "for the sake of party unity I am out and endorse Biden," but since her supporters mostly think of Biden as the enemy the only way they don't scream 'sellout' is if Biden has reached inevitability. Staying through next Tuesday and getting blasted again doesn't make her look any worse, and I suspect after next Tuesday the stink of death coming off the Sanders campaign will be obvious enough. Biden's strategy was to finish yesterday within 200 delegates and campaign on "that's a small gap we can close next week" because that slate is pretty favorable to him. Now with him coming out ahead rather than down 200 next week looks like it could be the kill shot unless Sanders turns things around.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

@Socrates99 Not officially but it looks like she's preparing to drop out.

Edit: This all sucks

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Not looking forward to an election with handsy uncle Joe vs Trump. Two septigenarians arguing over who's gropier with women, who's mental faculties are failing faster and who's more corrupt. Yay.....

I'm looking forward to that because the answers there are crystal clear. Gropier with women? Trump, no question. Faculties failing faster? Trump has been spewing nothing but word salad for years. More corrupt? Trump, hands down. If the campaign actually runs on those terms Joe 'I will restore the dignity of the office' Biden wins in a walk and carries every house and senate candidate that has any shot at all on his back.

 

[Socrates99]

I'm looking forward to that because the answers there are crystal clear. Gropier with women? Trump, no question. Faculties failing faster? Trump has been spewing nothing but word salad for years. More corrupt? Trump, hands down. If the campaign actually runs on those terms Joe 'I will restore the dignity of the office' Biden wins in a walk and carries every house and senate candidate that has any shot at all on his back.

Yeah, I remember being in the same boat with Clinton. Trying to argue "somewhat less bad" is a terrible place to start even against someone like Trump.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Yeah, I remember being in the same boat with Clinton. Trying to argue "somewhat less bad" is a terrible place to start even against someone like Trump.

Something that I admit, I sort of forgot... but was reminded of yesterday... is how much the 2016 result was about people hating Hillary, specifically... Not simply "the status quo" or "Washington insiders" or "moderates" or "the establishment"... but specifically Hillary Clinton.

Looking at the results last night, where Biden flipped so many counties/districts where Bernie crushed Hillary last cycle... I'm starting to think that there is a flaw in the "moderate lost last time, so can't win this time" narrative. The loss in 2016 may have had Hillary-dislike at its foundation rather than establishment-aversion. I can't say for sure, but those results last night were pretty eye-opening.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Yeah, I remember being in the same boat with Clinton. Trying to argue "somewhat less bad" is a terrible place to start even against someone like Trump.

It's pretty easy. If they are refusing to recognize the obvious then they are in the 40% that are lost. Trump won because of the people who knew he was a groping corrupt spewer of gibberish but believed an "outsider businessman" could "bring a fresh perspective that would make things better despite all the personal failings," and that Trump was "so rich he was able to set business aside and devote himself to public service." Those people are now freely available to be brought across the line, so if you run into a "Trump is really a good guy compared to evil Biden" true believer just politely move on and find one of them.

 

[Rashiminos]

Two of those are off and you have to grade by the Beltway curve on the third.

Biden being gropier than Trump isn't the issue*. It's the apparently underage groping that Trump supporters will pound in your face nonstop. All of the videos have been doctored, yessiree.

Spoiler :

Women find Biden more attractive... "they let you do it."

 

[Zardnaar]

If you are counting on the youth vote to win an election you're an idiot. They have the lowest turn out in all western nations.

It's a lot easier to ***** and moan and call people fascists on Twitter than go out and vote.

Or they're to busy getting stoned and hoping someone legalizes pot.

 

[luiz]

Why is everyone assuming Sanders is finished? He should finish with a gap of 89 delegates to Biden, give or take. Many things can still happen.

I think the debate on the primaries has been contaminated by 538 / other polling sites. According to their models, whoever won the last primary or came ahead in the last round of polling has overwhelming odds of winning the primary. But we already saw these overwhelming odds shift from Biden to Warren to Biden again to Sanders and now back to Biden. How overwhelming can they be if they shift so much?

Maybe Sanders will do brilliantly in the following debates, maybe Biden will do poorly, maybe some new facts will come out that will help one candidate and harm another. Why assume it's over when they're not even that far in terms of delegates?

 

[Zardnaar]

Why is everyone assuming Sanders is finished? He should finish with a gap of 89 delegates to Biden, give or take. Many things can still happen.

I think the debate on the primaries has been contaminated by 538 / other polling sites. According to their models, whoever won the last primary or came ahead in the last round of polling has overwhelming odds of winning the primary. But we already saw these overwhelming odds shift from Biden to Warren to Biden again to Sanders and now back to Biden. How overwhelming can they be if they shift so much?

Maybe Sanders will do brilliantly in the following debates, maybe Biden will do poorly, maybe some new facts will come out that will help one candidate and harm another. Why assume it's over when they're not even that far in terms of delegates?

It's because Bernie needed a knock out blow not coming close or almost winning.

If it's a brokered convention he won't win and if he comes in second he can't even claim it was stolen.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

If it's a brokered convention he won't win and if he comes in second he can't even claim it was stolen.

He can't? Has there been some rule change since 2016?

 

[Zardnaar]

He can't? Has there been some rule change since 2016?

He would need to be in the lead to have any shot yes?

And probably by a lot so the super delegates don't have a choice but to vote for him.

 

[Birdjaguar]

I think we are done. Biden will get the nomination. All the Dem establishment is gathering around him. Too bad, but that is our new reality.

 

[Lexicus]

I'm looking forward to that because the answers there are crystal clear. Gropier with women? Trump, no question. Faculties failing faster? Trump has been spewing nothing but word salad for years. More corrupt? Trump, hands down. If the campaign actually runs on those terms Joe 'I will restore the dignity of the office' Biden wins in a walk and carries every house and senate candidate that has any shot at all on his back.

The campaign isn't going to run on those terms. Ot's going to be Hunter's sordid/corrupt activities (including in Ukraine), Joe's senility, Joe's entire political career shoulder-deep in the DC swamp.

I must have missed you saying it before because I would like to talk about it. There will be some form of a power grab at this election, even if Trump is totally wiped out. It may not stick, but I expect at the very least that pockets of his diehard supporters will attempt to disrupt voting and he will claim the election is rigged.

I also think the possibility that he will go beyond calling the election rigged and make an outright play to stay in power is on the table. I think McConnell would side with him and I expect the GOP members of the House to participate. I also think it not unlikely that the Roberts court would legitimize the move (if successful) after the fact.

Well then it's 2016 all over again but this time maybe we'll get a candidate that appeals to older folk.

I have mentioned it on CFC but i am also talking outside of CFC. Am on my phone right now but will make a better post when i'm back at my computer.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

He would need to be in the lead to have any shot yes?

And probably by a lot so the super delegates don't have a choice but to vote for him.

I was referring to the idea that if he comes in second he can't claim the nomination was stolen. He came in second in 2016 by a wide margin, and that hasn't stopped anyone.

 

[Kyriakos]

I think we are done. Biden will get the nomination. All the Dem establishment is gathering around him. Too bad, but that is our new reality.

"Too bad"? Why, would you vote for Sanders instead of Biden?
Too bad indeed, cause ultimately this means four more years of the worst clown of all time.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

The campaign isn't going to run on those terms. Ot's going to be Hunter's sordidtcorrupt activities (including in Ukraine), Joe's senility, Joe's entire political career shoulder-deep in the DC swamp.

As I said...great. If Trump wants to carry the "you're corrupt and you are senile" torch, good on him. His faithful 40% eat that up, but the "give the outsider a chance" voters who put him into office are going to say "seriously?"

 

[Birdjaguar]

"Too bad"? Why, would you vote for Sanders instead of Biden?
Too bad indeed, cause ultimately this means four more years of the worst clown of all time.

Given a choice of who would be better, I would vote for Sanders. Trump only gets re-elected if the Sanders folks don't come out in force and vote Democratic.