2020 US Election (Part One)

[Kyriakos]

As I said...great. If Trump wants to carry the "you're corrupt and you are senile" torch, good on him. His faithful 40% eat that up, but the "give the outsider a chance" voters who put him into office are going to say "seriously?"

That's not what is going to happen. And "seriously", this is more than just 100% wishful thinking on your part.
Biden (if he gets a plurality, which now seems likely) will have a hard time defeating Trump. I think that Biden himself might have been ok with having Bernie as his VP, but the party won't allow it, thus making the chances of Biden as potus even worse.

Given a choice of who would be better, I would vote for Sanders. Trump only gets re-elected if the Sanders folks don't come out in force and vote Democratic.

The Bernie voters won't vote for Biden, unless Bernie is VP or similar. Ultimately, I think the election will be nearly impossible to win now. I do hope it will be won (but Biden as potus is already garbage, and without Bernie as VP why would the majority of Bernie voters help Biden?)

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Given a choice of who would be better, I would vote for Sanders. Trump only gets re-elected if the Sanders folks don't come out in force and vote Democratic.

There aren't near as many Sanders folks this time around. I'm pretty optimistic. Of course, I've been saying right along that any Democrat wins, but that is looking even better now. Turnout yesterday was impressive. I haven't run every number, but assuming Texas and Virginia are representative both were up 50%. The Democrats are seriously mobilized.

 

[Ironsided]

Biden is the frontrunner now but it’s not over yet. There is at least one more debate and Joe is a disaster when in focus. But the saddest thing is you’re now more likely to have a general election focused on the Ukraine instead of healthcare and education. Much needed education btw.

 

[IglooDame]

The Bernie voters won't vote for Biden, unless Bernie is VP or similar. Ultimately, I think the election will be nearly impossible to win now. I do hope it will be won (but Biden as potus is already garbage, and without Bernie as VP why would the majority of Bernie voters help Biden?)

(To vote against Trump?)

So there's Trump faithful, other Republicans and independents that voted for him (or against Hillary) last time, mainstream Dems, and Bernie faithful. Do I have that right? This time, as Tim has said, there's little "oh he's not mainstream politician" interest in him. There's no Hillary (and presumably, no Bernie) for conservatives to be really emotionally opposed to. The mainstream Dems will vote for Biden. And since Trump is so good at getting people to hate him (some people even label it TDS), since Biden is mostly inoffensive, if the DNC lets Bernie down gently, the combination of anti-Trump fervor and downballot races will draw Bernie faithful to the polls in November anyway, seeing through Trump's current push to highlight Bernie as getting screwed.

Or so goes my theory, anyway.

Alternatively, covid-19 kills a half-million elderly people, the stock market tanks, and not even Putin can save Trump from getting rolled.

 

[Birdjaguar]

That's not what is going to happen. And "seriously", this is more than just 100% wishful thinking on your part.
Biden (if he gets a plurality, which now seems likely) will have a hard time defeating Trump. I think that Biden himself might have been ok with having Bernie as his VP, but the party won't allow it, thus making the chances of Biden as potus even worse.

The Bernie voters won't vote for Biden, unless Bernie is VP or similar. Ultimately, I think the election will be nearly impossible to win now. I do hope it will be won (but Biden as potus is already garbage, and without Bernie as VP why would the majority of Bernie voters help Biden?)

Bernie as VP doesn't work at all. Two too old white guys is a terrible ticket. Stop being a divisive shill encouraging Bernie folks to not vote.

There aren't near as many Sanders folks this time around. I'm pretty optimistic. Of course, I've been saying right along that any Democrat wins, but that is looking even better now. Turnout yesterday was impressive. I haven't run every number, but assuming Texas and Virginia are representative both were up 50%. The Democrats are seriously mobilized.

Yes they seem to be. It will be all about turnout and Biden having a strong VP. Certainly Warren would be best, but he needs a woman. Cami mentioned Stacy Abrams. that might well be a choice worth considering. She would certainly bring out the voters in Georgia.

 

[Zardnaar]

Bernie as VP doesn't work at all. Two too old white guys is a terrible ticket. Stop being a divisive shill encouraging Bernie folks to not vote.

Yes they seem to be. It will be all about turnout and Biden having a strong VP. Certainly Warren would be best, but he needs a woman. Cami mentioned Stacy Abrams. that might well be a choice worth considering. She would certainly bring out the voters in Georgia.

Georgia purple though? No point having a VP who can't deliver their home state in a general.
Is it more purple than Florida, Mid West, Virgina, Ohio etc?

 

[IglooDame]

Bernie as VP doesn't work at all. Two too old white guys is a terrible ticket. Stop being a divisive shill encouraging Bernie folks to not vote.

Yes they seem to be. It will be all about turnout and Biden having a strong VP. Certainly Warren would be best, but he needs a woman. Cami mentioned Stacy Abrams. that might well be a choice worth considering. She would certainly bring out the voters in Georgia.

I heard Sarah Palin is available, and she has great experience!

 

[Zardnaar]

I heard Sarah Palin is available, and she has great experience!

She can see Russia from her house!!!

 

[Birdjaguar]

Georgia purple though? No point having a VP who can't deliver their home state in a general.

She lost her election there because her opponent Governor worked very hard to suppress voters. Since then she has been working to undo all that. Yes, she would need to deliver Georgia.

I think that black voters all across the country would support her as VP. She is a smart woman.

 

[Zardnaar]

She lost her election there because her opponent Governor worked very hard to suppress voters. Since then she has been working to undo all that. Yes, she would need to deliver Georgia.

I think that black voters all across the country would support her as VP. She is a smart woman.

I know. Still would prefer a VP who has a decent shot at delivering their state.

Georgia seems more red than purple. If you're gonna have that much of a gamble wouldn't Beto in Texas be a better shot?

He probably won't win but is Stacey that much better in terms of winning? How many EC votes is Georgia worth?

Assuming both are hail Mary type shots.

Or is Georgia more like Virginia now?

 

[AdrienIer]

Georgia purple though? No point having a VP who can't deliver their home state in a general.
Is it more purple than Florida, Mid West, Virgina, Ohio etc?

Ohio probably. Virginia, debatable. Who can deliver Florida for the dems ? Basically only Klobuchar delivers a swing state, and if the dems are struggling in Minnessota they're not winning the election

Edit : if Abrams can deliver a higher black turnout overall she's worth a lot more than the Georgia electoral votes.

 

[IglooDame]

Georgia purple though? No point having a VP who can't deliver their home state in a general.
Is it more purple than Florida, Mid West, Virgina, Ohio etc?

The recent VP selection track record doesn't really bear this out. Wyoming (Cheney), Delaware (Biden), and Indiana (Pence). All three were going to the respective winners anyway, and/or insignificant to the Electoral College result.

 

[Zardnaar]

The recent VP selection track record doesn't really bear this out. Wyoming (Cheney), Delaware (Biden), and Indiana (Pence). All three were going to the respective winners anyway, and/or insignificant to the Electoral College result.

Yeah there's more to VP selection than states. Safe and reliable I suppose.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

The biggest downside to either Abrams or O'roarke is the removal of them from their respective playing fields. Abrams can and will eventually win a statewide office in Georgia, pushing the state deeper into the purple for the long haul. Same with O'Roarke in Texas. If he doesn't disappear from the stage he beats Ted Cruz in 2024.

 

[Zardnaar]

The biggest downside to either Abrams or O'roarke is the removal of them from their respective playing fields. Abrams can and will eventually win a statewide office in Georgia, pushing the state deeper into the purple for the long haul. Same with O'Roarke in Texas. If he doesn't disappear from the stage he beats Ted Cruz in 2024.

Good point, they kind of need to stay where they are.

If Beto can swing Texas he's a top contender a few years down the line for President. Nominate me I've got Texas auto win is a powerful message.

 

[Camikaze]

Or is Georgia more like Virginia now?

Trump won Georgia by 5 points and lost Virginia by 5. He won Ohio by 8.

 

[DJNotNice]

While Beto is popular among liberal establishment, the reality in Texas is a lot different...

Blue Texas in the near future is really just a pipe dream, even if a majority of the population were more likely to vote Dem, the Republican Party of the state simply holds so much institutional power. Even a 65% Hispanic town, 90% of local election campaign posters are for Republicans

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Blue Texas in the near future is really just a pipe dream, even if a majority of the population were more likely to vote Dem, the Republican Party of the state simply holds so much institutional power. Even a 65% Hispanic town, 90% of local election campaign posters are for Republicans

Funny how this was so true in California too...until it wasn't. That institutional power only goes so far once the majority tilts against it.

 

[Kyriakos]

She lost her election there because her opponent Governor worked very hard to suppress voters. Since then she has been working to undo all that. Yes, she would need to deliver Georgia.

I think that black voters all across the country would support her as VP. She is a smart woman.

I'm afraid you haven't been following the news. Warren is largely seen as being anti-Bernie, ever since she accused him of sexism against her. If she is VP, it will cost even more Bern-votes.

But what do I know? I just say what the coin from the Red Square commands me to.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I'm afraid you haven't been following the news. Warren is largely seen as being anti-Bernie, ever since she accused him of sexism against her. If she is VP, it will cost even more Bern-votes.

The fact that this is true demonstrates what is absolutely rotten at the core of Sanders' "movement." It is a totally pure cult of personality. Say something bad about the divine Bernie and even though what is said may or may not be true and the person saying it is actually more of a champion for all the causes that the movement is supposedly about and the cult will just condemn you out of hand.