2020 US Election (Part One)

[onejayhawk]

Do you actually believe that Russia Today is a suitable news source for anything except Russian propaganda?

Sure. They will promote facts when the facts are advantageous. Even liars use the truth when they can.

CNN is a well known source of fake news

Much too true. It's sad how their reputation has tarnished. Still, see above.

I'm wondering what this has to do with the 2020 election.

J

 

[Old Hippy]

I'm wondering what this has to do with the 2020 election.

J

Every Trump tweet is to do with the 2020 election... one way or the other, regardless of your or anyone's else's opinion of him... everything happening now has a bearing on 2020.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Trump will not be running in 2020.

 

[Old Hippy]

^
I am saying what Trump does today will have an effect on how people vote in 2020...
or is the news cycle now that short that people will not remember about Trump during the Republican Primaries...

 

[Birdjaguar]

Sure. They will promote facts when the facts are advantageous. Even liars use the truth when they can.


Much too true. It's sad how their reputation has tarnished. Still, see above.

I'm wondering what this has to do with the 2020 election.

J

Trump has worked overtime to tarnish the reputation of all media that he perceives is against him. His opinion does change honest reporting into fake news.

Other than Fox, the US news is not a government directed source of information like RT.

 

[Birdjaguar]

^
I am saying what Trump does today will have an effect on how people vote in 2020...
or is the news cycle now that short that people will not remember about Trump during the Republican Primaries...

Other than some key phrases, most people can't keep up. If Trump isn't running, what he says in 2019 won't have much impact in 2020.

 

[Old Hippy]

Other than some key phrases, most people can't keep up. If Trump isn't running, what he says in 2019 won't have much impact in 2020.

I can guarantee that CNN will play there favorite picks of what Trump says today in the 2020 non stop
Unlike you i don't know what he will do in 2020... I don't read tea leaves...
Probably saying that Mueller is running a witch hunt is my best guess...

 

[Birdjaguar]

I can guarantee that CNN will play there favorite picks of what Trump says today in the 2020 non stop
Unlike you i don't know what he will do in 2020... I don't read tea leaves...
Probably saying that Mueller is running a witch hunt is my best guess...

Mueller isn't the type to waste time on nothing. He has produced quality work and found lots of bad guys. If he had nothing solid, he would close up shop. his reputation is one the line too.

 

[Old Hippy]

Mueller isn't the type to waste time on nothing. He has produced quality work and found lots of bad guys. If he had nothing solid, he would close up shop. his reputation is one the line too.

He has also opened up the FBI/DOJ to a $350 million lawsuit...
time will tell...one way or the other

 

[Birdjaguar]

He has also opened up the FBI/DOJ to a $350 million lawsuit...
time will tell...one way or the other

That will fail big time. He is a conspiracy nut case who got in over his head with Roger Stone. He is just trying to delay testifying further.

 

[Old Hippy]

That will fail big time. He is a conspiracy nut case who got in over his head with Roger Stone. He is just trying to delay testifying further.

Of course you have read about this... a MSM link... Mueller's desperate attempt at avoiding it is another Mueller con job he even used Trump for his excuse...
''Can't be heard because of government shutdown''... its being heard Jan 3rd 2019 I plan to follow the case
Has it ever crossed your mind Mueller is involved in a conspiracy... of course not... he is not the
type and seems out to get the big bad orange man ... no way could there be any truth to all the coverups about the clinton foundation under his watch at the FBI along with Rosenstein Comey and Strzok II
whatever type commits collusion/treason
Even more information will come out about government corruption due to discovery
give a person enough rope...

 

[Birdjaguar]

Of course you have read about this... a MSM link... Mueller's desperate attempt at avoiding it is another Mueller con job he even used Trump for his excuse...
''Can't be heard because of government shutdown''... its being heard Jan 3rd 2019 I plan to follow the case
Has it ever crossed your mind Mueller is involved in a conspiracy... of course not... he is not the
type and seems out to get the big bad orange man ... no way could there be any truth to all the coverups about the clinton foundation under his watch at the FBI along with Rosenstein Comey and Strzok II
whatever type commits collusion/treason
Even more information will come out about government corruption due to discovery
give a person enough rope...

If you read the link, it was a judge who denied the delay and the request for that delay was from the DOJ and not Mueller. You keep mixing Mueller's assigned task with Hillary and the Clinton foundation. Corsi and his Infowars is all about unfounded conspiracy. That is how they fund their terrible website.

A few of things:

• You frequently post RT sources
• You apparently favor Inforwars
• You think that there is a grand Clinton conspiracy to take over the government
• You think that Mueller is dishonest (based on nothing) and out to entrap Trump and his allies
• Your connection to US politics is only through the internet
• You have shown no understanding of how a US grand jury works
• You appear to take Trump at his word

My conclusion is that either you are just plain stupid or a worthless troll that is not even interesting. I'll tell you what. I'll get back to you when the next round of indictments etc. happen or you can tell me how all the charges are fake. Yes, people who believe Infowars are just plain stupid.

Moderator Action: Calling a member "just plain stupid or a worthless troll" is flaming. - Bootstoots
Please read the forum rules: http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=422889

 

[Kyriakos]

Bj, i like you, but calling another poster stupid is really bad form and surely against site rulers as well.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Bj, i like you, but calling another poster stupid is really bad form and surely against site rulers as well.

There was an "either...or..." in there, so he actually didn't call him stupid, he just presented it as one possible explanation for the nature of the posts.

 

[Berzerker]

dont both explanations violate forum rules?

 

[danjuno]

Getting back on track, I think that the Democrats needs to nominate Bernie or someone similar, as I feel that POTUS elections are more and more becoming a battle of turning out the base. That said, younger candidates with Sanders' progressive credentials are hard to come by due to the legacy of triangulation from the Clintonian Era, so Bernie will be the default of most progressives. Biden, if he runs, will be the establishment favorite, but he almost certainly won't have the PoC vote to himself like HRC did in 2016. If Warren also runs, Biden probably has it. If Warren doesn't run, then it's a fight to the finish. Booker would actually be a great stalking horse for Bernie, since he's a moderate PoC candidate from the Mid-Atlantic. O'Rourke (Although he's actually white) and Castro would also probably cut into any Obama coalition vote Biden has.

My Rankings (on probability of winning out of major candidates):
Joe Biden
Bernie Sanders
Liz Warren
Beto O'Rourke
Kamala Harris
Julian Castro
Cory Booker

Possible Bernie substitutes:
Barbara Lee (Rep - CA)
Jeff Merkely (Sen - OR)
Ro Khanna (Rep - CA)
Mark Pocan (Rep - WI, CPC Co-Chair)

 

[metalhead]

I like Merkely but he doesn't seem like the kind of candidate that could catch fire in the primary season.

One thing that I don't think has gotten enough attention is that California has moved its primary up to March 3. Texas' is on that same day, meaning a very large chunk of delegates are up early in the process. Due to proportional delegate rules, there could be 3 or 4 candidates splitting delegates from those states if the field is really that crowded. Could also give Beto and Kamala Harris a huge advantage, as any candidate that doesn't net delegates in both states is basically screwed.

It also means that it is going to be hard for anyone to reach a clear majority of delegates, if there are lots of candidates splitting the half or so of the total number that are available through Super Tuesday. Going to be immense pressure on those who finish out of the top 3 in Iowa and NH to quit the race.

 

[AdrienIer]

Immense pressure to drop off early, but also a great temptation to try it out on super tuesday anyway, given the number of delegates at play.

 

[Berzerker]

I hate to say it since I think Biden is the scummiest of the bunch, but he's the best to go up against Trump.

 

[Bootstoots]

I like Merkely but he doesn't seem like the kind of candidate that could catch fire in the primary season.

One thing that I don't think has gotten enough attention is that California has moved its primary up to March 3. Texas' is on that same day, meaning a very large chunk of delegates are up early in the process. Due to proportional delegate rules, there could be 3 or 4 candidates splitting delegates from those states if the field is really that crowded. Could also give Beto and Kamala Harris a huge advantage, as any candidate that doesn't net delegates in both states is basically screwed.

It also means that it is going to be hard for anyone to reach a clear majority of delegates, if there are lots of candidates splitting the half or so of the total number that are available through Super Tuesday. Going to be immense pressure on those who finish out of the top 3 in Iowa and NH to quit the race.

One thing I don't understand is why any state would choose a primary date much later than Super Tuesday. What's the point of holding a presidential primary in May or June?

It does seem pretty likely that nobody will finish with a delegate majority. What would avert a brokered convention in that case? Let's say that candidates A, B, and C end the primaries with the following percentages. The parentheses are the number of percentage points that were added by superdelegates, who IIRC are about 15% of the total.

A - 39% (9)
B - 28% (4)
C - 23% (1)
others - 10% (1)

(30 pp of candidate A's delegates came from pledged delegates plus 9 pp from superdelegates, and so on)

Candidate A did finish with a narrow plurality of pledged delegates, and a clear majority of superdelegates, but nowhere near a majority overall, and no amount of superdelegate switching can provide him/her with one. Presumably there's a lot of pressure on C to drop out and endorse A, but perhaps they prefer B or are determined to stick it out and try to win convention delegates in later rounds when binding rules drop away.

In an era of decentralized campaign fundraising and high willingness of small donors to contribute, it's not clear that the financial considerations that used to force people out early would apply to anyone with a big enough fanbase. There are political ones, of course, and presumably a lot of horse-trading will occur. But I think the odds of a deadlock heading into the convention are quite a bit higher than they used to be.