2020 US Election (Part One)

[Berzerker]

Biden advised Obama not to risk the attack on OBL

https://www.politico.com/story/2015...-defense-hillary-clinton-2016-campaign-121779

I apologize to Joe, he wasn't clamoring for Libya and Syria.

Replace the word "stubbornly" with "courageously" and you have it

Workship > worship

People all around the world believe we serve god(s), the Mesopotamians even said we were created by the gods to work for them. There was no Adam to till the land... The Adam was taken to the Eden to work for God.

Well, it is rather cowardly to win by missiles. It is why (eg) the spartans scoffed at archers. Use of light infantry like peltasts, javelin-men and archers only became the norm with the Theban hegemony. I suppose it is also why when a bow is presented as special for a hero, they must have exceptional skill, as with Odysseus being able to drive an arrow through the cylindrical gaps on the base of a number of axes. That said, afaik not even Odysseus fought primarily with a bow - he even wanted the spear and shield of Achilles, which he got in the end (through treachery).

Some geniuses invented the atlatl and bow and we conquered the world, but Patton decried super weapons. No heroes or cowards, no affirmation or glory, just those who are alive or dead. Two of my friends served in the Marines and navy and they like to make fun of each other's 'tribes', but I watched LOTR, I'd rather have the archer than the dwarve backing me up.

 

[Bugfatty300]

People all around the world believe we serve god(s), the Mesopotamians even said we were created by the gods to work for them. There was no Adam to till the land... The Adam was taken to the Eden to work for God.

Yeah I remember when I was a kid some creep wanted me to work butt naked in his garden too. Theists sure think up some sick stuff.

 

[Kyriakos]

@Berzerker Will to live certainly can - and should - be first. Yet we were only discussing "courage", not survival

That said, Menelaus was also arrogant in trying to put down Ajax's brother by reminding the latter he is just an archer. (moreoso when Ajax had just committed suicide, and Melelaus ordered that the body should be left to rot).

 

[Lexicus]

I gave $27 to Barnie Sandlot today

 

[Kyriakos]

"I think the story here is that Buttigieg is in the race".



Also, nice title. "Bernie and Warren lead". I suppose "Bernie leads" wasn't an option for the title.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Also, nice title. "Bernie and Warren lead". I suppose "Bernie leads" wasn't an option for the title.

I can't see anywhere that a title of "Bernie Leads" would fit. If there's ever been a poll where he lead it doesn't show up at RCP.

 

[Kyriakos]

I can't see anywhere that a title of "Bernie Leads" would fit. If there's ever been a poll where he lead it doesn't show up at RCP.

He has 3 percentage points more than Warren If we take that as "statistical error" territory, then Warren may be third and not Biden

 

[Timsup2nothin]

He has 3 percentage points more than Warren If we take that as "statistical error" territory, then Warren may be third and not Biden

What poll are you looking at?

 

[Kyriakos]

What poll are you looking at?

The one at 0.10 in the video you replied to, in my post

 

[sophie]

I can't see anywhere that a title of "Bernie Leads" would fit. If there's ever been a poll where he lead it doesn't show up at RCP.

Top one from this link: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-hampshire/

TL;DCT

Sanders 21%
Warren 18%
Biden 15%
Buttigieg 10%
Yang 5%
Klobuchar 5%
Gabbard 5%
Steyer 3%
Harris 3%
Booker 2%
O'Rourke 2%
Sestak 1%

CNN published 5 articles on this poll yesterday. None mentioned Bernie topping the poll. One headline read that Buttigieg was "in 4th, but a solid 4th." Also as has been the case in every poll - Bernie is crushing in favorability ratings, particularly among the young and the poor. Which should be the big takeaway for Bernie from any of these polls given that a) his strategy is to draw out young and poor people that don't typically come out and vote, and b) the usual accusation from the center is that Bernie is "loud and creepy" and that "the socialism label will be an albatross that will forever prevent Bernie from resonating with a broader American public"

 

[Estebonrober]

Top one from this link: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-hampshire/

TL;DCT

Sanders 21%
Warren 18%
Biden 15%
Buttigieg 10%
Yang 5%
Klobuchar 5%
Gabbard 5%
Steyer 3%
Harris 3%
Booker 2%
O'Rourke 2%
Sestak 1%

CNN published 5 articles on this poll yesterday. None mentioned Bernie topping the poll. One headline read that Buttigieg was "in 4th, but a solid 4th"

Those polls shifting pretty dramatically over the last 3 cycles. Signs that "regular" people are starting to pay attention or what? Don't we have a pollster in here? Can the enlighten us on what might be causing ten plus point swings from one cycle to the next?

 

[Zardnaar]

Hilary gave Tulsi a 4-5 pointboost.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Top one from this link: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-hampshire/

TL;DCT

Sanders 21%
Warren 18%
Biden 15%
Buttigieg 10%
Yang 5%
Klobuchar 5%
Gabbard 5%
Steyer 3%
Harris 3%
Booker 2%
O'Rourke 2%
Sestak 1%

CNN published 5 articles on this poll yesterday. None mentioned Bernie topping the poll. One headline read that Buttigieg was "in 4th, but a solid 4th." Also as has been the case in every poll - Bernie is crushing in favorability ratings, particularly among the young and the poor. Which should be the big takeaway for Bernie from any of these polls given that a) his strategy is to draw out young and poor people that don't typically come out and vote, and b) the usual accusation from the center is that Bernie is "loud and creepy" and that "the socialism label will be an albatross that will forever prevent Bernie from resonating with a broader American public"

Oh. Yeah, I haven't been looking at individual state polling, but was there ever really a question about Sanders winning on his home turf? If so, why?

FWIW I have yet to see any evidence that the "usual accusations" are incorrect. Going into the election saying "extremists are enough, we don't need a candidate with broad appeal" might be the only way the Democrats could lose.

 

[Zardnaar]

Oh. Yeah, I haven't been looking at individual state polling, but was there ever really a question about Sanders winning on his home turf? If so, why?

FWIW I have yet to see any evidence that the "usual accusations" are incorrect. Going into the election saying "extremists are enough, we don't need a candidate with broad appeal" might be the only way the Democrats could lose.

More or less how I see it.

 

[sophie]

Oh. Yeah, I haven't been looking at individual state polling, but was there ever really a question about Sanders winning on his home turf? If so, why?

FWIW I have yet to see any evidence that the "usual accusations" are incorrect. Going into the election saying "extremists are enough, we don't need a candidate with broad appeal" might be the only way the Democrats could lose.

Except the point is he has broad appeal.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Except the point is he has broad appeal.

What gives you that idea?

I think the great mass of "yeah I pay no attention until the primaries are over" voters are totally susceptible to an ad showing Bernie calling himself a socialist, and we all know the GOP would be running them 24/7 going towards November if he is the candidate. That great mass is who actually decides elections, more often than not.

 

[Zardnaar]

What gives you that idea?

I think the great mass of "yeah I pay no attention until the primaries are over" voters are totally susceptible to an ad showing Bernie calling himself a socialist, and we all know the GOP would be running them 24/7 going towards November if he is the candidate. That great mass is who actually decides elections, more often than not.

Charismatic centrist with minimal baggage is probably your best bet to win.

Hilary failed the charismatic and baggage party.

The party writes the legislation President just signs it.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Hilary gave Tulsi a 4-5 pointboost.

I keep trying to tell you guys... Hillary joining the race and losing, will be a watershed moment in the Democratic primary, giving a substantial boost to the Democratic candidate that ultimately defeats her.

 

[rah]

If I wasn't afraid of her winning the nomination and then losing to trump again, I would wholeheartedly support your concept

 

[Lexicus]

What gives you that idea?

Well, what gives me that idea is the profile of his donors:
https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2019/09/sanders-vs-warren-who-has-more-working-class-donors/

In the battle for working-class donors, however, there is a clear winner between the two.

An OpenSecrets review of campaign contributions — including those giving small amounts through the fundraising service ActBlue — reveals that among the 2020 Democrats, Sanders gets the most support from Americans in typically working-class jobs — and it isn’t close.

The Vermont senator is the top recipient among farmers, servers, social workers, retail workers, photographers, construction workers, truckers, nurses and drivers, among several other groups. Each of those professions — which don’t typically provide much campaign cash — earn near or below the median income, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

To me this suggests that Bernie is the guy with the potential to move beyond the Democrats' obvious stranglehold on highly educated, somewhat more affluent voters. What worries me about Warren is that I believe her demographic base of support sets us up for Hillary's election loss Mk2. She is strongest among the voters the Democrats can hopefully already count on to vote for whomever the Democrats nominate.

https://boingboing.net/2019/08/11/36m-from-746k-donors.html

This is another reason to think that Bernie has widespread appeal:

They had to make a separate map excluding Bernie to show other candidates' fundraising. Notice how Bernie is the lead recipient of donations in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida: the key states we need to win in order to win this election.