2020 US Election (Part Two)

[Sommerswerd]

It's wrong, no doubt, but to be fair there are people (typically from the left side of the political spectrum) who think vaccines cause autism, despite the fact that that assertion equally has no basis in reality.

Meh, Jenny McCarthy, the pied piper of the anti-vaxxer movement seems to be conservative. In fact, producers apparently wanted her to be "the Republican" when she was on The View, but she wasn't up for playing that role to the extent that they wanted her to. Basically, she didn't want to be the show's villain. In any case, anyone who is following medical advice from Jenny McCarthy... it doesn't really matter what side of the political spectrum, they're on.

This. Cuts both ways espicially the virus is now wrecking red states. If younger people are happy to riot and do protesting marches in a pandemic theoretically they'll vote. The death tolls in those red states I assume it's more elderly voters dying? That's Trump's core support. Optimistic here call it. Trump's goneburger.

Getting rid of Trump isn't worth seniors dying en-masse to me. I don't care if they're Republican... this **** is effed up. Trump is unnecessarily putting vulnerable people directly in harms way, intentionally, for the sake of his own image.​

 

[Naktis]

you know this is deja vu, good thing im not from US so I dont care that much...but onto my thought, last time elections everyone predicted landslade win for Clinton. And now same thing or not? Stay tuned till uh novermber ?! till US people find out

 

[Lexicus]

last time elections everyone predicted landslade win for Clinton

ayuh

 

[Zardnaar]

you know this is deja vu, good thing im not from US so I dont care that much...but onto my thought, last time elections everyone predicted landslade win for Clinton. And now same thing or not? Stay tuned till uh novermber ?! till US people find out

Not landslide they just kind of assumed.

I thought she would win but wasn't that convinced. Trump's win wasn't a surprise or shock but the Washington Post reported on the polls closing in the last few days. They're decent for things like political analysis.

Bidens way ahead of Hilary and is over the amount required to overcome gerrmandering and us leading in multiple swing States.

Think he was at something like 358 Electorate votes based on current polling.

That may not hold up until election day. Economic crisis plus botched pandemic response not good for Trump.

 

[Sommerswerd]

I certainly thought Trump's chances were much better before the pandemic. Frankly, before the pandemic, I was thinking Trump was almost certainly going to be re-elected. He's the incumbent, so the election is still his to lose, but he is definitely doing his best to muck things up as much as possible.

 

[Samson]

Both the Republicans and Democrats have web sites about all the court cases relating to voting in the November election. The democrat one is kind of slick [1], the republican one is broken [2].

[1] Not that functional though, I cannot find out who is fighting prepaid postage
[2] It could be geoblocked I guess, I get "Error 403 Forbidden. Guru Mediation: Details: cache-lhr7368-LHR 1593787339 2638993681 Varnish cache server"

 

[cardgame]

I couldn't decide if this belonged to clown car or election, but since it's about voting

 

[Samson]

I couldn't decide if this belonged to clown car or election, but since it's about voting

This is the election commissioner, a public servant? And he still has his job?

 

[Ferocitus]

I certainly thought Trump's chances were much better before the pandemic. Frankly, before the pandemic, I was thinking Trump was almost certainly going to be re-elected. He's the incumbent, so the election is still his to lose, but he is definitely doing his best to muck things up as much as possible.

His approval/disapproval ratings have definitely moved apart over the last few months according to the aggregated and weighted analysis by 538.
There's also an article there about why Biden's polling lead is different to Clinton's in 2016 for those about to say, "but Hillary...".
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-bidens-polling-lead-is-different-from-clintons-in-2016/

 

[Berzerker]

Meh, Jenny McCarthy, the pied piper of the anti-vaxxer movement seems to be conservative. In fact, producers apparently wanted her to be "the Republican" when she was on The View, but she wasn't up for playing that role to the extent that they wanted her to. Basically, she didn't want to be the show's villain.

"When I was on there, it was really hilarious because they initially had me come on to be the pop culture girl because they wanted to change [the show format]," McCarthy said.

"And then Barbara didn't know who anybody was pop culture wise, and then they came in my dressing room and said, 'Can you just act Republican so we can have another point of view?'" she continued. "And I said, 'How do I act Republican?' Then they figured out how to get a Republican."

https://www.newsweek.com/jenny-mccarthy-view-republican-1257852

 

[GenMarshall]

His approval/disapproval ratings have definitely moved apart over the last few months according to the aggregated and weighted analysis by 538.

I’ve seen this song and dance before. I don’t see any correlation between approval ratings and re-electability. George W. Bush had a low approval rating (floating from a high of 53% to 46% approval rating) in 2004 and still managed defeat Kerry on November.

 

[Takhisis]

I couldn't decide if this belonged to clown car or election, but since it's about voting

Yet another verification of my theory that a large part of the US legal system is a direct descendant of the old system: its main concern was to keep the enslaved population in line and the redskins out, and today they still view themselves as a way of keeping the non-WASPS out of power.

 

[Zardnaar]

I certainly thought Trump's chances were much better before the pandemic. Frankly, before the pandemic, I was thinking Trump was almost certainly going to be re-elected. He's the incumbent, so the election is still his to lose, but he is definitely doing his best to muck things up as much as possible.

I thought he was going to lose but wasn't convinced 100%.

Not 100% either but say in January 60-40 now it's 90-10 something like that. That's my personal head figures.

The 10% is electoral shenanigans or an October Surprise.

 

[rah]

Yeah, he seems to be doubling down on going for the racist vote while ignoring moderates. Those suburban white women helped him win last time, and his overt racism seems to be losing him ground there.
His latest calling Black Lives Matter a symbol of hate isn't helping him much. He already has the racist's vote but it seems to be costing him other demographics.

 

[Cloud_Strife]

The problem is that as the gop continues to border on the verge of outright fascism if they haven't already crossed said threshold, they are bringing along alot of people with them so even if trump loses the gop will double down

 

[Takhisis]

As always, follow the money. They always say that they want the state not to intervene in the economy, etc. etc. free market etc. etc. may the strongest win and the weak perish etc. etc. bootstraps etc. etc. but in effect that means the big players get subsidies and everyone else gets taxed to compensate.
In this it's the same: it's a free country, not taxation without representation, but the same people who get the tax cuts get to vote and those who pay the taxes get to, uhm, not vote.

The 10% is electoral shenanigans or an October Surprise.

Expect there to be vote tampering even before the travesty that is the electoral college.

 

[Zardnaar]

Expect there to be vote tampering even before the travesty that is the electoral college.

Yeah I meant gerrymandering, lack of ballot stations or a close result going to supreme court.

Gerrymandering can bite them in the ass though. They were done 10 years ago and it's not like they can gerrymander any worse.

Once they start flipping it's going to be hard for the GoP to win them back.

 

[Takhisis]

it's not like they can gerrymander any worse.

You just wait. They can always modify to catch up with demographic trends at least.

 

[Ferocitus]

I’ve seen this song and dance before. I don’t see any correlation between approval ratings and re-electability. George W. Bush had a low approval rating (floating from a high of 53% to 46% approval rating) in 2004 and still managed defeat Kerry on November.

No argument there! I've seen bouncy polls over nearly 50 years in a variety of countries.
But I was replying to the post that mentioned disapproval increasing after covid. The polls support that now.
I wouldn't bet the rent on any outcome 4 months out from the election.

 

[mitsho]

Yeah, now would be around the time normal elections would be starting. You know, to be prepared when people are coming home from their summer holidays. But America...