2020 US Election (Part Two)

[Sommerswerd]

Elections won’t be cancelled. I suppose the most realistic solution would be to have the election over a month (or so) and just have everybody fill in their ballots with a free golf pencil if it needs to be done in person at all.

Back at the country’s founding the election was four months away from inauguration. Horses and buggies were slow. We can give it a month or so.

Of course that makes sense, but that's not the point. Trump and the Republicans have no interest in making the election/voting more convenient, because that means more people will vote and the more people that vote, the more Democrats win and Republicans lose.

This situation with coronavirus is mana-from-heaven for Republicans because they dominate in the areas where people think coronavirus is a hoax and will have no qualms about showing up to vote in person, no mask, no social distancing no nothing. They will have no trouble finding elderly folks to serve as poll volunteers who have no fear whatsoever of coronavirus, because President Ding Dong told them the pandemic is over and they believe him without question. That means those areas will have few, if any polling stations closed, and voting will be a snap.

Meanwhile the cities where Democrats are concentrated and where people are taking the pandemic seriously will have severely suppressed voting due to polling stations being closed, people staying away to avoid too much personal contact, etc. Michigan 2016 showed that a few tens of thousands of folks staying away or not able to vote can sway the election so... all the cards in the deck are stacked in the Republican's favor this cycle. They have no incentive to allow alternative voting methods or extended voting periods. If they just insist on in person voting they should run the table on the Democrats easily.

If the Republicans manage to lose anything this cycle it would be a miraculous upset due to epic incompetence and sheer overwhelming rejection of their brand on the part of the electorate.

 

[Gori the Grey]

sheer overwhelming rejection of their brand on the part of the electorate

Your lips to God's ears.

 

[Commodore]

This situation with coronavirus is mana-from-heaven for Republicans because they dominate in the areas where people think coronavirus is a hoax and will have no qualms about showing up to vote in person, no mask, no social distancing no nothing. They will have no trouble finding elderly folks to serve as poll volunteers who have no fear whatsoever of coronavirus, because President Ding Dong told them the pandemic is over and they believe him without question. That means those areas will have few, if any polling stations closed, and voting will be a snap.

Meanwhile the cities where Democrats are concentrated and where people are taking the pandemic seriously will have severely suppressed voting due to polling stations being closed, people staying away to avoid too much personal contact, etc. Michigan 2016 showed that a few tens of thousands of folks staying away or not able to vote can sway the election so... all the cards in the deck are stacked in the Republican's favor this cycle. They have no incentive to allow alternative voting methods or extended voting periods. If they just insist on in person voting they should run the table on the Democrats easily.

If this came from a political pundit, I would say this sounds like a convenient excuse to refuse to accept the legitimacy of the election if it doesn't turn out the way you want it. But it's you and you're my VP candidate so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt here.

 

[Sommerswerd]

If this came from a political pundit, I would say this sounds like a convenient excuse to refuse to accept the legitimacy of the election if it doesn't turn out the way you want it. But it's you and you're my VP candidate so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt here.

Nah, there are always circumstances that effect the election. I can certainly see how this can sound like expectation lowering/hedging, but it's not a preemptive legitimacy challenge. That said, I still think this reasoning is sound. You don't agree?

The bottom line is the election result will be whatever it is and whining about the circumstances isn't going to change the result or make it any less binding. Just like the 2016 election... Hillary got more votes but it doesn't matter. Trump won the election, period.

 

[Commodore]

Nah, there are always circumstances that effect the election. I can certainly see how this can sound like expectation lowering/hedging, but it's not a legitimacy challenge. That said, I still think this reasoning is sound. You don't agree?

Maybe. If that is the case though, then it seems Democrat voters have to decide what they are more worried about: coronavirus or Trump getting reelected.

 

[El_Machinae]

Liberals are more afraid of the virus, overall, so that suppresses voting. But seniors should be more afraid of the virus than younger people. I cannot predict.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Maybe. If that is the case though, then it seems Democrat voters have to decide what they are more worried about: coronavirus or Trump getting reelected.

That is exactly the issue. Very well stated.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Liberals are more afraid of the virus, overall, so that suppresses voting. But seniors should be more afraid of the virus than younger people. I cannot predict.

Seniors should be more afraid of it, but I think in practice that only manifests for the Democratic voting seniors. I think the Trump supporting seniors are less likely to gaf about coronavirus.

 

[Kyriakos]

Maybe a computer system would be viable - I mean, if it wasn't for the obvious chance of massive fraud - cause coronavirus is known to stick to surfaces. Not sure how long it sticks to a letter, but if it is more than a couple of days it can create an issue.

 

[El_Machinae]

Seniors should be more afraid of it, but I think in practice that only manifests for the Democratic voting seniors. I think the Trump supporting seniors are less likely to gaf about coronavirus.

There will be a disparity between the two, but I still think that seniors will be more afraid than young people.
We're left in a natural experiment, though. If (R) voters are less afraid and IF the virus is actually problematic at scale, then there should be a functional decrease (R) ability to even vote, since a portion of their voters will be under-the-weather. This will be most dramatic if the (R) states show a lower turnout than normal. It could really cause a significant shift in the popular vote.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Not sure how long it sticks to a letter, but if it is more than a couple of days it can create an issue.

IIRC the latest consensus on that is 30 mins... down from the original opinions that it was about 3 hours.

 

[Sommerswerd]

There will be a disparity between the two, but I still think that seniors will be more afraid than young people.
We're left in a natural experiment, though. If (R) voters are less afraid and IF the virus is actually problematic at scale, then there should be a functional decrease (R) ability to even vote, since a portion of their voters will be under-the-weather. This will be most dramatic if the (R) states show a lower turnout than normal. It could really cause a significant shift in the popular vote.

If senoirs stay home in comparable numbers regardless of party affiliation and are not given the mail-in ballot in red states that is going to be a total disaster for the Republicans. A substantial loss of the Republican senior vote could create losses even in deep red states.

 

[Takhisis]

Matthew 25:40 is a better one
"The King will reply, 'Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me.' "

Indeed. It all uds up to this ‘love thy neighbour’ thing. Jesus spent the NT using parables to give practical examples, as the first catechist of the New Covenant.

 

[caketastydelish]

It does give you some insight into why states like Texas and Florida are pushing ahead with reopening plans in the face of record-level coronavirus cases and spiking hospitalizations. The Trump supporters simply don't believe that its happening and they refuse to be persuaded otherwise. That's all there is to it.

A physician family member shared an example with me, of a recent patient of a colleague, a child who tested positive for coronavirus. When the doctor informed the parents of the positive test, the parents flat-out denied that the test was accurate, denied that their child had coronavirus and refused to believe anything else the doctor said. That's a perfect snapshot of where we are.

It's wrong, no doubt, but to be fair there are people (typically from the left side of the political spectrum) who think vaccines cause autism, despite the fact that that assertion equally has no basis in reality.

 

[caketastydelish]

Secret hidden KGB Officer is his next door neighbor .

Would being part of an organization (and regime) that hasn't existed in almost 30 years really count as "Russian" though?

 

[Zardnaar]

If senoirs stay home in comparable numbers regardless of party affiliation and are not given the mail-in ballot in red states that is going to be a total disaster for the Republicans. A substantial loss of the Republican senior vote could create losses even in deep red states.

This. Cuts both ways espicially the virus is now wrecking red states.

If younger people are happy to riot and do protesting marches in a pandemic theoretically they'll vote.

The death tolls in those red states I assume it's more elderly voters dying? That's Trump's core support.

Optimistic here call it. Trump's goneburger.

 

[Gorbles]

It's wrong, no doubt, but to be fair there are people (typically from the left side of the political spectrum) who think vaccines cause autism, despite the fact that that assertion equally has no basis in reality.

Anecdotally, from what I've seen of anti-vaxxers, it tends to go hand-in-hand with at least some baseline of religious belief. Not always, for sure, but I don't think you can characterise it as "from the left". There's probably also similar trends coming out of some of the vegan / vegetarian activists, and I wouldn't want to guess at where any of them sit ideologically either.

 

[Samson]

Anecdotally, from what I've seen of anti-vaxxers, it tends to go hand-in-hand with at least some baseline of religious belief. Not always, for sure, but I don't think you can characterise it as "from the left". There's probably also similar trends coming out of some of the vegan / vegetarian activists, and I wouldn't want to guess at where any of them sit ideologically either.

I had a look, and it seems that noone really knows how anti-vaxxers are distributed. The strongest statement I found was this phenomenon “is complex and context specific varying across time, place and vaccines” 4 and "vaccine refusers tend to be well educated, white, and more affluent than people who typically experience health disparities.1". I was amazed at the incidence shown here.

 

[Socrates99]

This. Cuts both ways espicially the virus is now wrecking red states.

If younger people are happy to riot and do protesting marches in a pandemic theoretically they'll vote.

The death tolls in those red states I assume it's more elderly voters dying? That's Trump's core support.

Optimistic here call it. Trump's goneburger.

The Wisconsin supreme court election earlier this year proves determination is overcoming suppression. Even the fact that Booker did so well in KY is a pretty good indication that people are willing to plow through the suppression BS these days.

Dump's breaking rule number one in politics, dont get your voters killed.

 

[El_Machinae]

The fact that we're discussing the effect a pandemic will have on voting is super-depressing. The fight over the Republic has prevented it from defending itself against a force of nature.