2020 US Election (Part Two)

[Berzerker]

being fat conveys power when food is scarce

 

[Phrossack]

“Power is the ultimate aphrodisiac.”

— Kissinger

That’s all I had to contribute, really.

Anyway, the coup-spiracy theory that Trump will cling to the Oval Office desk and the military will back him up is pretty silly. @Patine rightly points out that they wouldn’t risk their prestige over protecting one man who loses an election, even if two-thirds of them vote for him.

That assumes the outcome of the election is a clear defeat for Trump on Election Night. There isn't going to be a "coup" in the sense of the military seizing power from Biden. Rather, the fear is that Trump will rig the election even more than he already has, then incite violence if he somehow loses.

If there's any wiggle room at all, if they're still tallying the votes for days, he will claim victory. If it's the latter, he'll also try to get the election results called on Election Night and everything else thrown out. Large numbers of voters will be profiled as likely Democrats and intimidated or challenged at the polls by the tens of thousands of "poll security" for whom the GOP has earmarked millions. It would be entirely within character for Trump to have large amounts of mailed ballots tossed or destroyed in swing states.

If he loses anyway, he'll begin scorched earth tactics and urge militias of enraged supporters to "defend their country" while shouting night and day that he really won and the election was rigged. He'll also declare protests against him to be insurrections while defending protests in his favor.

America's institutions have been badly weakened and many of the old taboos are falling apart.

Edit: beaten to it

 

[Arwon]

It seems that you, like many others, expect the U.S. Military to help keep him in power in the event of him arbitrarily declaring he won't accept defeat and step, even if illegitimately. I somehow don't see the U.S. Military taking that immense gamble and utterly destroying the prestige they often pride themselves on holding in American society to illegitimately keep in power a President they find an incompetent Commander-in-Chief, and who is an embarrassment and insults them. And, to boot, given his record on foreign and military affairs from a long service in the Senate, I'm pretty sure the U.S. Military would prefer Biden anyways.

I don't think I mentioned the military at all. That still leaves a lot of scope for a crisis with lots of chaos and violence, however. State by state certification of results, with the variety of political forces arrayed in each of them, including at this point actual organised pro-Trump paramilitaries, would be likely to get messy and dirty.

 

[Phrossack]

I don't think I mentioned the military at all. That still leaves a lot of scope for a crisis with lots of chaos and violence, however. State by state certification of results, with the variety of political forces arrayed in each of them, would be likely to get messy and dirty.

Yeah, the military will stay out of this. DHS, ICE, CBP, police, and militias will use violence on Trump's behalf while the military sits it out.

 

[Arwon]

It's the pandemic that makes this especially dicey. The pandemic has shifted far more of the vote into early/postal/absent voting, meaning modelling results from on-the-night counting of in-person election day votes will be especially difficult. There'll be a lot more counting left to do than normal and no precedent data to guide projections. States that could normally be "called" with confidence are likely to be far less certain until those pandemic-induced late counts come in.

In anything short of an obvious election night win for the Dems, since Trump is planning to attack the legitimacy of counting that occurs after that night, they're going to at least have this messy state by state fight over results certification. That means likely lots of court cases with rowdy protests and gun-toting militias showing up outside inflaming things. It also means scope for partisan state legislatures to intervene and stop counting or declare a result early. And with Trump loudly insisting the late votes, much bigger than normal, are faked by the Democrats to steal the election.

It's sort of a unique recipe for chaos caused by the both the wannabe autocrat and the pandemic in conjunction. Any other year, there'd be far less uncertainty on election night (albeit still lots of the vote suppression that usually tilts things).

 

[amadeus]

One should not quote a sociopath on matters of emotion, intimacy, and genuine attraction.

I’m not sure if that was directed at me or at Kissinger.

 

[Kyriakos]

being fat conveys power when food is scarce

But if food becomes even more scarce, it makes you a target...

 

[r16]

it makes you the food ?

 

[Patine]

I’m not sure if that was directed at me or at Kissinger.

Definitely Kissinger. He is the epitomy of soulless and inhuman.

 

[AmazonQueen]

What BS, nothing a non-mythical lady hates more than a indecisive guy who's always like "no, I don't have a preference, whatever you want to do"

Thank you for explaining to me how I think, I'm sure I couldn't have managed it without the help of a man.

 

[Ironsided]

Consider the following scenario: Election day occurs amidst a flurry of news reports about people who never received their ballot, surprise shutdowns of polling places due to a lack of poll workers, etc. Results indicate Trump won the election on Election day and he declared himself victor, but the major networks refuse to call the election because of insufficient votes cast. Over the next few days, mail in ballots show slim Biden win. Trump/RNC immediately file suits claiming the 'new' results are invalid for Reason, and Biden/DNC file counter-claims. Legal shenanigans fly all across the map with no resolution by Jan 20. What role would the military play in that situation if Trump, backed by a lame-duck Senate decides he should stay around as "Caretaker" administration.

Show a slim Biden win? Wasn't the electability the whole reason here to support Biden over Bernie in the primaries? Wasn’t that pretty much the only reason? Only Mr. zero-enthusiasm-empty-gymnasiums Biden was going to win dominantly and unfailingly enough with his strong and silent leadership message of ‘nothing will fundamentally change'?

 

[Patine]

Thank you for explaining to me how I think, I'm sure I couldn't have managed it without the help of a man.

Don't worry. The thought, emotion, and behaviour dictation police are coming for us all in time.

 

[Traitorfish]

That rests on the assumption that it is clear Trump clearly loses the election. What role, if any, the military will play if the results are messier is far less clear.
Consider the following scenario: Election day occurs amidst a flurry of news reports about people who never received their ballot, surprise shutdowns of polling places due to a lack of poll workers, etc. Results indicate Trump won the election on Election day and he declared himself victor, but the major networks refuse to call the election because of insufficient votes cast. Over the next few days, mail in ballots show slim Biden win. Trump/RNC immediately file suits claiming the 'new' results are invalid for Reason, and Biden/DNC file counter-claims. Legal shenanigans fly all across the map with no resolution by Jan 20. What role would the military play in that situation if Trump, backed by a lame-duck Senate decides he should stay around as "Caretaker" administration.

Does the law provide for a president to remain in office after his term in a "care-taker" role? From what I understand, the Presidential Succession Act dictates that the role of acting president would fall to the Speaker of the House.

The constitution itself doesn't specify a line of succession, but it does specify that the position of acting president has to be filled by a federal officeholder; if Trump's re-election is not confirmed, then he is not an office-holder and would be ineligible for the appointment even if the Presidential Succession Act were somehow circumvented.

The senate could attempt to declare Trump acting president, but as they do not possess the legal power to do so, it would be unenforceable.

 

[Patine]

That rests on the assumption that it is clear Trump clearly loses the election. What role, if any, the military will play if the results are messier is far less clear.
Consider the following scenario: Election day occurs amidst a flurry of news reports about people who never received their ballot, surprise shutdowns of polling places due to a lack of poll workers, etc. Results indicate Trump won the election on Election day and he declared himself victor, but the major networks refuse to call the election because of insufficient votes cast. Over the next few days, mail in ballots show slim Biden win. Trump/RNC immediately file suits claiming the 'new' results are invalid for Reason, and Biden/DNC file counter-claims. Legal shenanigans fly all across the map with no resolution by Jan 20. What role would the military play in that situation if Trump, backed by a lame-duck Senate decides he should stay around as "Caretaker" administration.

If the U.S. Military were to cross the red line of interfering with internal electoral politics, why wouldn't they just find a contrived casus belli to kick Trump - a President who is personally very unpopular with, and viewed as incompetent as Commander-in-Chief, by them - to the curb and just select their own caretaker President outright - like many African, Asian, and Latin American militaries do during coups and other interferences with internal electoral politics - if, as I've pointed out, they'd already crossed that red line?

 

[Sommerswerd]

The last 4 polls on RCP have Biden at or above 50%. Seven of their last ten polls have him at or above 50%. However, he's still averaging under 50% on RCP and Trump has decreased Biden's lead to 6.5%.

For reference, Obama trounced Romney with a 3.9% lead, while Trump trounced Clinton with a 2.1% deficit.

 

[Farm Boy]

Trump squeaked Clinton by any measure. She was a truly awful nomination. Biden is somewhat better, but Assclown has had people watching the WWE for almost 5 years now. It's like a soap opera, you're dumber for it, but you stop caring.

 

[Narz]

Thank you for explaining to me how I think, I'm sure I couldn't have managed it without the help of a man.

I don't know you, was just speaking generally.

 

[Socrates99]

It's the pandemic that makes this especially dicey. The pandemic has shifted far more of the vote into early/postal/absent voting, meaning modelling results from on-the-night counting of in-person election day votes will be especially difficult. There'll be a lot more counting left to do than normal and no precedent data to guide projections. States that could normally be "called" with confidence are likely to be far less certain until those pandemic-induced late counts come in.

In anything short of an obvious election night win for the Dems, since Trump is planning to attack the legitimacy of counting that occurs after that night, they're going to at least have this messy state by state fight over results certification. That means likely lots of court cases with rowdy protests and gun-toting militias showing up outside inflaming things. It also means scope for partisan state legislatures to intervene and stop counting or declare a result early. And with Trump loudly insisting the late votes, much bigger than normal, are faked by the Democrats to steal the election.

It's sort of a unique recipe for chaos caused by the both the wannabe autocrat and the pandemic in conjunction. Any other year, there'd be far less uncertainty on election night (albeit still lots of the vote suppression that usually tilts things).

The pandemic and its politicization is what really screws the pooch here. Historically mail in voting doesn't favor either party and the results are usually reflective of the districts in person voting. Since Democrats take the pandemic more seriously it's likely mail in voting does favor dems. That's what really creates the perfect storm where Trump can question the results.

My advice to dems is to vote in person. Be as safe as possible but vote on the day of the election regardless of concerns over the pandemic. The more in person votes Biden gets the weaker Trump's narrative will get.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Men are attracted to beauty, women are attracted to power.

Meh... I'd say both are attracted to both. Trump got plenty of votes from men, remember...

 

[Berzerker]

I wouldn't describe that election in terms of beauty, but Clinton was the one with power. I've heard men 'generally' dont like powerful women, has to do with perceptions of masculinity. Hey Joe, who wears the pants in your family?