2020 US Election (Part Two)
- Thread starter Lexicus
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Farm Boy
I hope you dance
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Lexicus
Deity
Phrossack
Armored Fish and Armored Men
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Well obviously China and Hillary colluded to infect America with a virus that does not exist
Lexicus
Deity
@Kaitzilla
I believe Biden, Harris, and their spouses all tested negative after Trump's result was made public. Biden should keep getting tested though. I am not sure what the regimen is for the candidates but imo they should be getting tested frequently/regularly anyway.
I believe Biden, Harris, and their spouses all tested negative after Trump's result was made public. Biden should keep getting tested though. I am not sure what the regimen is for the candidates but imo they should be getting tested frequently/regularly anyway.
Traitorfish
The Tighnahulish Kid
This isn't a question of "stopping" Trump. There's nothing to stop: at 12pm on Wednesday January 2021, Donald Trump's first term in office expires. If the senate has not confirmed his re-election at that time, he vacates the office automatically. The senate doesn't call for him to relinquish the office, because there is no provision, no mechanism, by which he may remain in office. Nobody needs to do anything, he doesn't need to turn in his badge and gun, he simply ceases to be the president of the United States. "You can't do that" is not a prohibition, it's a bluntly empirical statement, "you do not possess the ability to perform that action".
For Trump to remain in office, he would need to explicitly appointed to the office by the Senate. The constitution does not provide this power to the Senate; while it does provide for the senate to appoint an acting president in the event of a tie, it specifies that the appointee must be a federal office. As Trump will not hold federal office upon vacating the presidency, he is not eligible for appointment. (Nor is Biden.) US law lays out a clear order of succession, starting with the Speaker of the House; even if they found a way to circumvent that law, they are still require to appoint a federal officer, they cannot just pick any civilian they take a liking too.
There is no viable scenario in which the Senate decides to ignore the clear instructions of the US constitution and appoint Trump to the presidency in the absence of a clear electoral victory. They do not have the power to do so, and no federal officer, no member of the military or any federal agency, no officer in any state or territorial government, would be require to respect it. Convincing a workable majority of the American government apparatus to go along with it would mean spending enormous amounts of money and political capital, enough to bankrupt them for a generation, and they aren't going to do that for a syphilitic moron that they didn't want to nominate in the first place.
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Narz
keeping it real
Whoa really? That's a blessed year
He is in Michigan.
Anyway, Biden is leading in PA by 7, and Florida by 5. The two nearest possible tipping point states. And there is more evidence of the debate helping Biden. I can't think of a recent story that is helping Trump, and Barr's October surprise is likely to be another Hunter Biden thing that fizzles out completely.
If Trump losses in Florida, he's toast.
mitsho
Deity
I'm not so sure about the "not productive" thing. That's a judgment entirely made from the safety of one's life. That scale of what is productive may look totally different for the rioters. Maybe productive isn't even something they are striving for anymore - as they have given up. And obviously, there will be rioters there that just like to smash things up, but people like that can never start such a big riot by themselves.
Maybe it's not the riots you should try to prevent, but take a look at the underlying causes for them.
Zkribbler
Deity
Nate Silver of Protect 538 is now giving Biden an 80% chance of winning the election
Trump a 20% chance.https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ In 2016, Silver gave Trump a 30% chance of winning.
Biden is currently given a 50.6% chance of winning Florida
and a 52.2% chance of winning Pennsylvania .
mitsho
Deity
Nate Silver of Protect 538 is now giving Biden an 80% chance of winning the election
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ In 2016, Silver gave Trump a 30% chance of winning.
But that 30% 2016 chance was later on in the election cycle, right? Just to make it comparable.
The more important, their senate forecast (on the link above click the S for Senate) now has the Democrats slightly favoured to win as well.
Gori the Grey
The Poster
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sort of out-surprised by Covid's October Surprise.
Lexicus
Deity
Biden is currently given a 50.6% chance of winning Florida
If I were playing Civ 4 and I cared about losing the unit, I wouldn't attack at those odds.
He is confusing vote share, with odds.
Biden has a 62% chance in Florida
and an 81% chance in PA
Also, a large factor in the 538 models is time and baked in uncertainty. While Trump's odds now overall are 20%, they drop to 9% if he doesn't make up polling ground between now and the election (and he hasn't been making up ground, if anything it is getting worse). Relying solely on both a massive polling error (way bigger than 2016) and EC-Popular vote disparity.
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Indeed, Trump has been trumped.
Timsup2nothin
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LOLOLOLOLOL
Where have we heard that before???
hobbsyoyo
Deity
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I acknowledge your argument and vehemently disagree. To elaborate would be to go in circles, so I'll leave it at that.
538 jumped to I think the mid 30's the day before or day of the election. Before that I think his odds were about where they are now. I do not believe any of the non-GOP-shill polls moved his odds into the 30's in late October/Nov 2016; IIRC, 538 was an outlier at the time.
Comparatively, yeah I guess? While I am relatively secure I still feel great anxiety for those that are not, and this debate caused excessive mental anguish. I have a hard time disconnecting from anything, much less issues that I care deeply about. So yes, believe it or not, things like debates take a psychic toll on people even if they roll off your back.
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