2020 US Election (Part Two)

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No BJ, when I argue with you and Tim which is the original argument, I’m arguing with people who actively support the party shenanigans and Biden as the best candidate. And while the race is supposedly over in the media. It’s still ongoing. Bernie is still an option to vote for in all the remaining states and by far the superior choice.

Your failure to grasp reality is obviously at the root of your descent into name calling. I didn't support any candidate in the primaries. I did point out glaring flaws in the one that you supported, which of course you responded to with tantrums. I also predicted how the primaries would run out, accurately. Now I am engaged, because the democrats having chosen Biden makes it imperative, IMO, that Biden win.
 
I want Trump to lose, but for me there is no quandary. Trump losing the election isn't worth tens of thousands of people dying from coronavirus.

The other thing is... I'm not sure that there is even such a correlation/connection. I mean he's already completely botched the covid-19 resonse and I'm not sure it has lost him any of his supporters. I don't know that he can do anything worse than what he has already done that will have any significant impact on his supporters staying with him. All he has to do it seems is keep telling people what they want to hear... which is that the crisis is overblown, things will be back to normal soon, nothing to worry about, a cure is on the way... and so on.

I think if he acted in a reasonably responsible way (like Bojo has reluctantly done) he'd reap an electoral reward from people who wouldn't otherwise vote for him.
If he tries to send the US back to work after 2 weeks as he seems inclined to he will lose the election but a lot of people will die.
 
Its also obvious that whatever good results from the response, Trump will take credit for and claim it was totally his idea from the beginning. Its equally obvious that any negative effects will be blamed on Democrats and or anyone else he has conveniently at hand.

Dude posted this at the exact instant Pence, fielding a question in press briefing, praised the leadership of governors in WA, NY, CA. Trump has been doing this in each briefing.

edit: it's not a "briefing" per se, it's a "virtual town hall"
 
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I'm not pulling for tens of thousands dead...but there is very likely going to be. I'm also not pulling for economic devastation...but there is very likely going to be. When there is one, or the other, or both, I think it will finally provide something that Trump can't lie his way out of, even with some portion of his ardent believers. That won't make the death and devastation worthwhile, but since nothing is going to change the death and devastation we might as well get some sort of benefit along with it.
I get what you are saying. Note that what my comment was directed at was the word "quandary", which to me was an indication that @AmazonQueen was feeling conflicted about whether or not to welcome the negative results of the coronavirus crisis as essentially being a necessary evil/means to achieve the highly desirable ends of getting Trump out of office. I'm saying that for me there is no conflict. I don't think the one is worth the other, and I'm not even convinced that the two are even correlated so its not the kind of thing I think you even need to be conflicted about, even if you did think one was worth the other.

What you raise is a related, but entirely different angle... which is the former is happening regardless... so we might as well look for the silver lining. Which, incidentally, on a somewhat-related-to-the current-conversations note, is roughly the way I feel about Biden being the presumptive nominee. Wasn't my preference, but we've got to play it out now... no use crying about it... better off looking at/for the silver lining.
 
@Sommerswerd

Isn't it technically possible that Biden wouldn't end up the nominee? Is there literally no way this could happen. I'm a Brit, so excuse the ignorance.

I think you are mistaking pushback for support.

I don't think many posters here who defend Biden do so out of any great love for him or his policies. Most of the Biden defenses come about in response to hyperbolic vitriol and personal attacks.
Hyperbole is a complex one; there are plenty of people here that use all forms of hyperbole for people, candidates or ideologies they dislike. Personal attacks are another thing completely (which is why I was trying to focus on more generics than just the current spat).

Defending Biden is fine. But you have to recognise that defending Biden full stop is something that will get peoples' backs up. The separation of the political and the personal is an illusion, I know you know this. For people at risk, for people with something to lose . . . it all matters. This is why I keep saying the "left-wing" presence in this forum really isn't what certain folks (that aren't usually leftist, progressive or even liberal) insist it is. Ironsided is possibly an outlier, but the criticism here of mainstream centre-right candidates like Biden is so incredibly mild.

And he is right when he's not insulting somebody, or saying something else incendiary. The race isn't over (though realistically it could be at this point, I'm not really tuned into the numbers and the ongoing pandemic crisis has taken over my social media feeds - understandably). I stayed quiet on comments about Biden's activity vs. Sanders, because Sanders is a sitting senator (though if that's the technicality that excuses Biden's relative lack of activity, well, I'm calling it a technicality for someone who wants to run for POTUS). I stayed quiet on claims that Biden was doing nothing, because him / his team are doing things. But could he be doing more? Sure!

There are people who are always going to feel that Sanders was the better pick. And while I sure hope as many people in this camp as possible vote blue later down the line (extenuating life circumstances / trauma aside), I maintain you have to understand the anger. Even from folks here on CFC.

I have a few UK friends/colleagues who felt that Corbyn got hammered with a false portrayal of his antisemitism and pro-IRA history. Replace that with Bernie's pro-Communist history and I submit that it is indeed a helpful comparison.

Certainly people can be critical or hostile, but if they get personal about it - as IronSided did - then I personally have little difficulty casually dismissing their points.
1. Ah, fair. But that would be the same of any candidate (including Biden). I've mentioned this before though, so not really fussed in keeping mentioning it (I know people are aware).

2. The problem with this, especially at the moment, is the danger of missing points made. I get it, but it's not just Ironsided. And even on that, you're all joining in together with the equivalent of the rollseyes emote and such with your pushback. With some posters literally inciting the reactions, in some cases. It's not like people here aren't above getting petty, but the qualifier seems to just be how you word it, which in my opinion sucks. I dunno, this is getting onto backseat moderating now, so ignore me - I've moved away from the politics-related point I was trying to make!
 
Dude posted this at the exact instant Pence, fielding a question in press briefing, praised the leadership of governors in WA, NY, CA. Trump has been doing this in each briefing.

Yeah, that will stop when he defies all experts and says "time to pretend the problem is solved" and those governors don't lift restrictions in their states.

But the real point here is that "well, Pence praised praiseworthy actions" is not really effective argument for "so it's okay that everyone who speaks at the briefing is forced to run a preamble of kissing Trump's ass" before they go on to state the facts about what an oblivious idiot Trump clearly is.
 
Dude posted this at the exact instant Pence, fielding a question in press briefing, praised the leadership of governors in WA, NY, CA. Trump has been doing this in each briefing.

edit: it's not a "briefing" per se, it's a "virtual town hall"
By moving his daily briefing to Fox news Trump has reverted to campaigning rather than solving the problem.
 
You're saying that when he praises specific Democrat governors, repeatedly, it's campaigning?
 
You're saying that when he praises specific Democrat governors, repeatedly, it's campaigning?

No, when he rewards the network that spins every aspect of their coverage into pro-Trump propaganda, he's campaigning. In fact, he is illegally using the powers of his office to forward his campaign.
 
I'm not even convinced that the two are even correlated

I am deeply anxious about this as well. I am also worried that Trump may exploit the crisis to somehow circumvent the election.

In fact, he is illegally using the powers of his office to forward his campaign.

*laughs* how quaint
 
You're saying that when he praises specific Democrat governors, repeatedly, it's campaigning?
He just trashed Cuomo for not buying 15,000 ventilators in 2015.
 
Defending Biden is fine. But you have to recognise that defending Biden full stop is something that will get peoples' backs up
There are only so many ways I can say, "I don't like Biden but...". I have not seen full stop support for Biden from anyone here. It's always deeply qualified support or hyper-contextual to the actual arguments being made rather than general support for the guy.
 
I think if he acted in a reasonably responsible way (like Bojo has reluctantly done) he'd reap an electoral reward from people who wouldn't otherwise vote for him.
If he tries to send the US back to work after 2 weeks as he seems inclined to he will lose the election but a lot of people will die.
It seems like he is getting that result anyway despite his mishandling of the crisis, all the way from the pre-crisis preparation to the present.
Dude posted this at the exact instant Pence, fielding a question in press briefing, praised the leadership of governors in WA, NY, CA. Trump has been doing this in each briefing. edit: it's not a "briefing" per se, it's a "virtual town hall"
Citing an instance of Mike Pence praising governors does not disprove... or even relate to my claim that Trump will ultimately claim credit for any good that results from the coronavirus response. Mike Pence and Trump are two different people.
@Sommerswerd

Isn't it technically possible that Biden wouldn't end up the nominee? Is there literally no way this could happen. I'm a Brit, so excuse the ignorance.
"excuse the ignorance"? What's that supposed to be, sarcasm?:smug:

You are of course correct that it is indeed technically possible that Biden wouldn't end up as the nominee. For example... just giving you a little bit of friendly sarcasm back;)... Biden could, for any number of reasons suddenly decide to drop out of the race, like have some sort of healthcare emergency... or die. There are in-fact, many, many things that "technically" could happen to keep Biden from getting the nomination. However, it is very unlikely that Biden does not end up the nominee at this point.

Anyway, what was your point in highlighting that particular technicality?
 
"excuse the ignorance"? What's that supposed to be, sarcasm?:smug:

You are of course correct that it is indeed technically possible that Biden wouldn't end up as the nominee. For example... just giving you a little bit of friendly sarcasm back;)... Biden could, for any number of reasons suddenly decide to drop out of the race, like have some sort of healthcare emergency... or die. There are in-fact, many, many things that "technically" could happen to keep Biden from getting the nomination. However, it is very unlikely that Biden does not end up the nominee at this point.

Anyway, what was your point in highlighting that particular technicality?
The ignorance is genuine. I try to be (genuine, hahaha, not ignorant), in general. Not saying I'm some perfect being, I will happily throw digs every so often, but when I'm trying for a longer-form post, this is me and I'm acting as sincerely as I can.

I appreciate the explanation. Just trying to get a sounding board on how possible it was, that's all. Was more interested in the delegates rather than technicalities about him dying :p But it's handy, because this kind of immediate snark is exactly what I was highlighting to hobbs and Igloo. There's being defensive, and there's been immediately disposed to treating these kinds of questions in bad faith. It's not great, yeah?
 
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@Sommerswerd

Isn't it technically possible that Biden wouldn't end up the nominee? Is there literally no way this could happen. I'm a Brit, so excuse the ignorance.

Look at it like a football match. One team is up four goals to nil, and the team that is behind has thus far shown no offense whatever...and the second half is going into extra time. Yes, it is technically possible for this game to turn around since there is time on the clock, but it isn't going to happen.

Sanders has underperformed compared to 2016 in every contest so far. To become the nominee through the primary process (since Sommer already addressed the outside the process possibilities, which are very real) Sanders would need to start overperforming compared to 2016 by about 50%. States where he broke close to even in 2016 (got 50%) he needs to be winning by fifty point margins (get 75%). States where he got beat by twenty points (got 40%) he needs to win by twenty points (get 60%). States where he lost by forty points (got 30%) he needs to close the gap to ten points (get 45%). There is absolutely no indication he can pull off such an overperformance in one state, let alone all the remaining states, keeping in mind that thus far his peak has been a state where he matched 2016.

That's the math of it.
 
Thanks for the maths breakdown!

No problem. Obviously those numbers are roughs, but it's accurate in the main. It would definitely require an outcome in every subsequent race that Sanders has yet to achieve in any race. From a strategic standpoint, when Sanders grossly underperformed in New Hampshire it was apparent that without a major shift in his approach he couldn't win outright. Instead of trying to make that shift he started harping about winning by plurality, which would have been dependent on just about all the competitors staying in the race to a point very close to the end.

His faithful are trying to spin that as "everyone got out just so Sanders would lose," but the truth is that everyone bails is the norm, not a conspiracy. "Campaigned for president" is a terrific line to have on your resume as a politician. "Hung in there through a long disastrous drubbing" is decidedly not. It probably looks weird coming from a multi-party parliamentary structure, but the early primaries are designed to sort out who will most likely be one and two, because nobody wants to waste time on a campaign to come in third.
 
I'll disagree with you on the people bailing out, at least some of it seems to have been directed in favour of Biden (by Obama, or whomever. I'm not claiming conspiracy, I'm just saying there was a directed choice, and in my opinion before things had actually settled yet), but that point is still in the past regardless. There's definitely an establishment bias against a candidate like Sanders, for his policies or general track record, I don't know (or care at this point) - I just hope they see the popular support for his policies and do something about that.

That said, the current ongoing crisis could shift public opinion on social welfare and health services regardless of Sanders or Biden (or anyone else), so I can't make any predictions. It would be nice, at least. I'm hoping for something similar here in the UK.
 
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