2020 US Election (Part Two)

Status
Not open for further replies.
My point here was that there are logical problems with the statistics that you, and anyone relying on a statistic to substantiate a predetermined viewpoint, simply overlook. Your racially-linked study and your wiki edit war invite a couple of safer conclusions:
  1. Production of identity politics viewpoints is amply-financed by the university network.
  2. Wikipedia is not.
But on the general subject of whether we can gather good data about voter fraud, not even the higher-quality source has anything to say. In fact if you follow the link you posted, you will see other studies in the roster commenting on the hurdles I mentioned: the extreme difficulty of gathering voter ID info and actual data about fraud in the US. I think some of these difficulties have been created on purpose. You make these stupid pretenses of empiricism. One need look no further than the census questionnaire, and the spirit in which, "are you a US citizen," was struck. There's the real level of empiricism.
There is so much wrong with this post, but first I will talk about what I think is your main point, which may actually be correct. To stick with your 1st example, what I think you are saying (sorry if I have your point wrong) is that we have insufficient data to allow statistics to give a confident answer to if the collecting and submitting of absentee or mail-in voter ballots by volunteers or workers causes more people who should vote to go from not voting to voting than people who should not vote to go from not voting to voting. If you were to display the slightest sign of actually having looked at the data and assessed the question quantitatively then I would certainly accept your word, as I am not going to look that deeply. If someone was to I would certainly read their conclusions. From a very quick look, the search 'statistics "ballot harvesting" non-citizens' brings up no peer reviewed literature with replicable statistics demonstrated. This supports the point I think you are making.

Now to some other points in your post:
  • I am well aware of the problems inherent in this sort of statistical modelling, and am generally pretty critical of statistical modelling, including my own.
  • What racially linked study? I choose the first peer reviewed article that had real statistics, that was about the effect of rain on the result. I thought that would be the least controversial thing I could think of. In the UK the weather is famously the safest subject to bring up in small talk, as it is inherently non-controversial (we are famous for talking about it for this reason).
  • I had nothing to do with that "wiki edit war". I linked to that page because I had to look up what ballot harvesting was, and wanted to ensure that we are on the same page about what we are talking about.
  • I have never seen a "wiki edit war", does one inappropriate comment and its removal in a month count as a war? I suspect not.
  • My university was so not productive of identity politics viewpoints, there were more young earth creationists than openly gay and black people combined.
  • I have not expressed a predetermined viewpoint. The only viewpoint I have expressed is that there are statistics about the factors that affect voter turnout, and I did that after looking to see that there were.
  • You accepting that there are "other studies in the roster commenting on the hurdles [of statistically analyzing voter turnout]" shows that there are statistics on voter turnout. That is what statistics are.
  • You accepting that the census could inform this question indicates that not collecting citizenship information at the point of voting does not preclude building models around this question, just that you have to look around a bit more for the data for your models.
On a completely separate point, what on earth is going on in Wisconsin? In person voting today, and it was the republicans that want it? If I was young, fit and healthy I would be voting, and if I was young fit and healthy I probably vote democrat, and possibly Bernie. Is this what they want?
 
Last edited:
It's also really hard to get data on leprechauns, for some reason.
 
On a completely separate point, what on earth is going on in Wisconsin? In person voting today, and it was the republicans that want it? I
They got the Supreme Court to allow them to toss out all mail-in ballots that do not arrive by today, disenfranchising tens of thousands. The reasoning they used to allow this voter suppression was laughable as well.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/04/supreme-court-wisconsin-absentee-ballots.html

On Monday, by a 5–4 vote, the U.S. Supreme Court approved one of the most brazen acts of voter suppression in modern history. The court will nullify the votes of citizens who mailed in their ballots late—not because they forgot, but because they did not receive ballots until after Election Day due to the coronavirus pandemic. As Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg wrote in dissent, the court’s order “will result in massive disenfranchisement.” The conservative majority claimed that its decision would help protect “the integrity of the election process.” In reality, it calls into question the legitimacy of the election itself.

Wisconsin has long been scheduled to hold an election on April 7. There are more than 3,800 seats on the ballot, and a crucial state Supreme Court race. But the state’s ability to conduct in-person voting is imperiled by COVID-19. Thousands of poll workers have dropped out for fear of contracting the virus, forcing cities to shutter dozens of polling places. Milwaukee, for example, consolidated its polling locations from 182 to five, while Green Bay consolidated its polling locations from 31 to two. Gov. Tony Evers asked the Republican-controlled Legislature to postpone the election, but it refused. So he tried to delay it himself with an executive order on Monday. But the Republican-dominated state Supreme Court reinstated the election, thereby forcing voters to choose between protecting their health and exercising their right to vote.

Because voters are rightfully afraid of COVID-19, Wisconsin has been caught off guard by a surge in requests for absentee ballots. Election officials simply do not have time, resources, or staff to process all those requests. As a result, a large number of voters—at least tens of thousands—won’t get their ballots until after Election Day. And Wisconsin law disqualifies ballots received after that date. In response, last Thursday, a federal district court ordered the state to extend the absentee ballot deadline. It directed officials to count votes mailed after Election Day so long as they were returned by April 13. A conservative appeals court upheld his decision.

Now the Supreme Court has reversed that order. It allowed Wisconsin to throw out ballots postmarked and received after Election Day, even if voters were entirely blameless for the delay. (Thankfully, ballots postmarked by Election Day but received by April 13 still count because the Legislature didn’t challenge that extension.) In an unsigned opinion, the majority cited the Purcell principle, which cautions courts against altering voting laws shortly before an election. It criticized the district court for “fundamentally alter[ing] the nature of the election by permitting voting for six additional days after the election.” And it insisted that the plaintiffs did not actually request that relief—which, as Ginsburg notes in her dissent, is simply false.

Ginsburg’s dissent, joined by her three liberal colleagues, shredded every other aspect of the majority opinion as well. “If proximity to the election counseled hesitation when the District Court acted several days ago,” she wrote, “this Court’s intervention today—even closer to the election—is all the more inappropriate.” Ginsburg also pointed out that there is nothing unusual about extending voting beyond the deadline to protect citizens’ constitutional rights. “If a voter already in line by the poll’s closing time can still vote,” she asked, “why should Wisconsin’s absentee voters, already in line to receive ballots, be denied the franchise?”

Shockingly, the majority alleged that voters who receive late ballots are not “in a substantially different position from late-requesting voters in other Wisconsin elections.” This contention, Ginsburg wrote, “boggles the mind.” She elaborated:


Rising concern about the COVID–19 pandemic has caused a late surge in absentee-ballot requests. … Some 150,000 requests for absentee ballots have been processed since Thursday, state records indicate. The surge in absentee ballot requests has overwhelmed election officials, who face a huge backlog in sending ballots. As of Sunday morning, 12,000 ballots reportedly had not yet been mailed out. It takes days for a mailed ballot to reach its recipient—the postal service recommends budgeting a week—even without accounting for pandemic-induced mail delays. It is therefore likely that ballots mailed in recent days will not reach voters by tomorrow; for ballots not yet mailed, late arrival is all but certain.

Ginsburg closed with a dire warning about the threat to democracy manufactured by the majority:

The question here is whether tens of thousands of Wisconsin citizens can vote safely in the midst of a pandemic. Under the District Court’s order, they would be able to do so. Even if they receive their absentee ballot in the days immediately following election day, they could return it. With the majority’s stay in place, that will not be possible. Either they will have to brave the polls, endangering their own and others’ safety. Or they will lose their right to vote, through no fault of their own. That is a matter of utmost importance—to the constitutional rights of Wisconsin’s citizens, the integrity of the State’s election process, and in this most extraordinary time, the health of the Nation.

Unfortunately for the nation, Wisconsin Republicans decided that they would prefer to exploit the pandemic to suppress Democratic votes. Their state Supreme Court, dominated by partisan Republicans, allowed them to do so. And now the U.S. Supreme Court has overturned the only protection in place to ensure that voters could still safely cast ballots even if the state fails to provide them expediently. This election looks increasingly like a sham tainted by partisan manipulation. And now the most powerful court in the nation has approved these tactics. An election that forces voters to choose between protecting their health and casting a ballot is not a free and fair election. Nor should its results be treated as indisputably legitimate. The courts may have permitted Republicans to rig this election, but Wisconsinites are under no obligation to pretend that its outcome reflects the will of the people.
I know it's a lot to read but the evidence is pretty clear that the GOP will do anything to win elections and they have the power structure in place to achieve that goal.
 
They got the Supreme Court to allow them to toss out all mail-in ballots that do not arrive by today, disenfranchising tens of thousands. The reasoning they used to allow this voter suppression was laughable as well.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/04/supreme-court-wisconsin-absentee-ballots.html


I know it's a lot to read but the evidence is pretty clear that the GOP will do anything to win elections and they have the power structure in place to achieve that goal.
Slow-motion coup indeed.:shake:
 
I was dead serious when I made that thread in 2018 that was premised: This is our last chance to stop Trump. I think it's now too late to reverse course. It looks like the curve is finally starting to flatten on Covid and they are now projecting peak death at less than 100,000. I think that while Trump won't get the huge polling bump typical of presidents in crisis, enough people will think he's done a good job that he may just win re-election. And the groundwork on stealing the country is so far advanced that not having control of the Senate for this session means that the GOP is effectively unstoppable at this point. We have had minority rule for a while but I expect that to become permanent going forward.

And even if the Democrats win the presidency and both houses of congress, they won't have the SCOTUS (I believe even Sanders shies away from packing the courts) and so many states have moved to suppress votes and gerrymander that there's almost nothing we can do to reverse this. It's too late.

Edit: Actually I think Biden has said he would pack the courts but I can't remember.
 
Last edited:
So... very predictably... you are again returning to the deflection of false outrage over me "putting words in your mouth" rather than addressing the thread topic. Again, I specifically said "Assuming for sake of discussion that you're talking about Sanders" to precisely to avoid "putting words in your mouth" and the predictable fake outrage you're using as a distraction here. But you ignored that, and claimed outrage anyway... because you had no choice, since your argument was debunked, and you had no idea how to deal with it.

But I'm not letting you off the hook this time. Because even putting aside your obvious lie about not referencing Sanders, your argument fails, because Sanders is the real-life example that disproves your premise. You can deflect and dissemble all you want about talking about the "broad, problematic, systemic phenomenon" and avoid giving an actual concrete example of this so-called phenomenon as I asked you directly to do... You can name-call and accuse me of "arrogance" or "chutzpah" or "arrogance" in whatever language you choose... Its all irrelevant. Sanders candidacy is the proof that your argument is wrong, so it does not matter whether you admit that you were referencing Sanders. Your argument is wrong and Sanders proves it.

"Videogames are impossible to win"
"I won my last game of Civ"
"I'm not talking about Civ... I'm talking about the broad, problematic, systemic phenomenon"

:rolleyes:Yeah, whatever... nice try... Your're still wrong.

Obvious lies about Sanders? As I said, you REALLY don't think know that well, haven't been reading my other posts, or assume I'm somebody else, or some other kind of poster. You're not letting me off the hook, are you? And you're obviously one of those obnoxious people I've run across who believe one anecdote kills a whole trend argument. Well that would ONLY be the case if I used an absolute like "always,' or "never," (see my mention of that in "the words I never use," thread). But "trend," and "systemic problem," are not those kinds of words. And what if I don't consider Sanders to be the great Messianic and perfect candidate you jump to conclusion I do, but may be referring to ones who were marginalized, like Kucinich, or even though his hald his ideas were bad, Ron Paul (his foreign policy was one of the best in the 21st Century thus far, and getting rid of the unaccountable, secretive, and downright high criminal "alphabet soup," agencies was quite a novel concept). Or even Yang. I mean yes, they got camera time for a while, but usually in a way to highlight them as extremist freaks, in case you'd forgotten, and it was obvious the Establishment wanted them brushed under the carpet as soon as possible. So, I'm sorry. Too many assumptions about who I am and what I believe, and using them as ammunition for more falsely-based attacks and lies. THAT is where you fail. And it's what most turned me on Cloud Strife's attitude, and a few others around me. So, no, I'm not wrong. You are. YOU LOSE, GENERAL ZOD! You may not accept it, you may not recognize it, but you have lost. And I feel no need to subject to yet another poster whose already decided in their mind - FALSELY - what my answers and motivations are. You also suck at Aristotlean Dialogue!
 
They got the Supreme Court to allow them to toss out all mail-in ballots that do not arrive by today, disenfranchising tens of thousands. The reasoning they used to allow this voter suppression was laughable as well.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/04/supreme-court-wisconsin-absentee-ballots.html


I know it's a lot to read but the evidence is pretty clear that the GOP will do anything to win elections and they have the power structure in place to achieve that goal.
Stick to the rules, no exceptions is hardly a dark plot.

But it sure looks that way when a raging pandemic shuts 95% of polling stations in cities that tend to tilt democrat.

Let me guess, rural voters in less dense areas who think this virus thing is a bit of a hoax will vote like normal?

Not like they take the elevator full of coughing people down to an Uber/bus/subway ride full of coughing people, then stand in a mile-long line full of coughing people to cast their selection.


We might be seeing a preview of the national election in November today in Wisconsin. :hmm:

The ultimate coup would be Trump declaring the Post Office bankrupt November 1st and it needs to be closed for 1 week to restructure. :lol:

Late mail-in ballots of course won't be counted.
Nevermind that election by mail seems like a rational alternative to keep the death count down.
 
Last edited:
Stick to the rules, no exceptions is hardly a dark plot.

But it sure looks that way when a raging pandemic shuts 95% of polling stations in cities that tend to tilt democrat.

Let me guess, rural voters in less dense areas who think this virus thing is a bit of a hoax will vote like normal?

Not like they take the elevator full of coughing people down to an Uber/bus/subway ride full of coughing people, then stand in a mile-long line full of coughing people to cast their selection.


We might be seeing a preview of the national election in November today in Wisconsin. :hmm:

The ultimate coup would be Trump declaring the Post Office bankrupt November 1st and it needs to be closed for 1 week to restructure. :lol:

Late mail-in ballots of course won't be counted.
Nevermind that election by mail seems like a rational alternative to keep the death count down.
I have been wondering if the primary purpose of this election going ahead is to provide data on the likely effects of any decisions that have to be made in the run-up to November. If too many old people rural are frightened away from the voting stations that will mean different things to if mostly city types do not vote.
 
All I know is that I hate literally everything about our elections. I vote, because civic duty, but don't feel represented by anyone. No one I've ever voted for has actually aligned with all my political beliefs. Obama was the closest.

The Republicans are so morally bankrupt at this point I feel like we're basically Tammany Hall on a national scale, but worse. The Democrats, while better than the current clownshow we've got, are still mostly interested in preserving the current system.

I always want to vote for a 3rd party, but the elections now are such high stakes I feel like I have to vote for one of the two parties, and end up always voting against something instead of for something.

And because I'm somewhere in the middle, I feel attacked by everyone. My parents are single-issue voters on the right. I disagree fundamentally with many stances on the left, which doesn't seem interested in people who don't agree with certain core issues. It seems like our political system doesn't have room for me. And yet I feel compelled to vote anyways, because what else am I going to do? Sitting it out does nothing.
 
Stick to the rules, no exceptions is hardly a dark plot.
It starts to look that way when:
  • By their own logic, the prevailing judges are in the wrong
  • All of this is taking place in a pandemic, where rules need to be flexible
  • All of this is taking place with the backdrop of rampant voter suppression, much of it OK'd by the same court
 
I'm sort of glad to see this ruling. The Wisconsin primary matters very little anyway, so minimal harm done. But it puts every state on notice that November is coming and the election will happen. If the states don't put laws in place to manage that election in a pandemic friendly, but constitutional, fashion they are going to have serious problems.
 
I'm sort of glad to see this ruling. The Wisconsin primary matters very little anyway, so minimal harm done. But it puts every state on notice that November is coming and the election will happen. If the states don't put laws in place to manage that election in a pandemic friendly, but constitutional, fashion they are going to have serious problems.
That's nice and all but the states controlled by the GOP won't budge. This ruling potentially opens the possibility that tens of millions will be disenfranchised. The GOP is taking notes about how this plays out but not to affect positive change going forward.
 
That's nice and all but the states controlled by the GOP won't budge. This ruling potentially opens the possibility that tens of millions will be disenfranchised. The GOP is taking notes about how this plays out but not to affect positive change going forward.
The Republicans aren't even hiding the fact now that they know greater voter turnout will go badly for them. Link.

All 6.9 million active voters in Georgia are being mailed absentee ballot request forms this week by the secretary of state’s office. Voters who return the absentee ballot request forms will be able to participate in the primary without having to come into contact with other people on election day or during early voting.

“This will be extremely devastating to Republicans and conservatives in Georgia,” Ralston, a Republican from Blue Ridge, said during an interview with Fetch Your News, a North Georgia news site. “Every registered voter is going to get one of these. … This will certainly drive up turnout.”

Republicans say high voter turnout favors Democrats, although that is not always the case. Ralston doesn’t want the mail-in primary to set a precedent for future elections in which heavier use of mail-in ballots drives turnout higher in the general election, when the parties compete against each other.
 
The Republicans aren't even hiding the fact now that they know greater voter turnout will go badly for them. Link.
What I am amazed by, is not that they think this, or that they discuss this in private, but that they think that expressing these sentiments will not collapse their support in any subsequent election. Could it really be that saying "we have to make it harder for everyone to vote because if everyone can vote then we will lose" does NOT make anyone who believes in democracy think of you as a monster?
 
What I am amazed by, is not that they think this, or that they discuss this in private, but that they think that expressing these sentiments will not collapse their support in any subsequent election. Could it really be that saying "we have to make it harder for everyone to vote because if everyone can vote then we will lose" does NOT make anyone who believes in democracy think of you as a monster?
It plays into the "culture war" narrative. Their base will support them because they're "protecting their way of life" against the liberal masses who have lost sight of the "founders original intent".

I was raised in this, btw.

EDIT: removed repeated words
 
Last edited:
What I am amazed by, is not that they think this, or that they discuss this in private, but that they think that expressing these sentiments will not collapse their support in any subsequent election. Could it really be that saying "we have to make it harder for everyone to vote because if everyone can vote then we will lose" does NOT make anyone who believes in democracy think of you as a monster?

xZGoljV.png


victory at any cost

they don't even know what they're fighting for anymore
 
I'm sort of glad to see this ruling. The Wisconsin primary matters very little anyway, so minimal harm done. But it puts every state on notice that November is coming and the election will happen. If the states don't put laws in place to manage that election in a pandemic friendly, but constitutional, fashion they are going to have serious problems.

It looks like the Supreme Court just gave them quite some leeway in what is considered constitutional. There seem to be plenty of politicians who consider people not voting a feature rather than a bug.

It never ceases to amaze me, how bad Americans are at organizing elections.
 
It looks like the Supreme Court just gave them quite some leeway in what is considered constitutional. There seem to be plenty of politicians who consider people not voting a feature rather than a bug.

It never ceases to amaze me, how bad Americans are at organizing elections.
To clarify, we're not incompetently bad at organizing elections, we're maliciously bad at it.

Americans are really freakin' good at solving logistical problems. The problem is that our leadership does not want this particular logistical problem solved.
 
xZGoljV.png


victory at any cost

they don't even know what they're fighting for anymore

This is why Americans should realize NEITHER major party is worth voting for, and neither deserve their vote, and both just have a long history of screwing over, lying, and cheating their people, and far favouring marching orders from big corporations that effectively bribe than their own constituents. The American people should organize a grassroots "legislative revolt," and vote out Duopoly members in the Presidency and enough Congressional seats that both of those parties COLLECTIVELY lose control of government. And before someone brings it up again as a lame attempt to "kill" this idea for any credence, it doesn't matter how it turned out in Italy - that was a completely different context.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom