2020 US Election (Part Two)

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I think people will do well to pretend they forgot Warren sort of stuck around in the primaries when the Biden-group quit en masse to empty the field for Biden-Biden. Warren having no honor or shame, didn't mind coming third in her own state - the goal was just to make sure Bernie won't win the nomination.
First of all, Warren's poll numbers plus Bernie's poll numbers at the time were still lower than Biden+Bootyjudge+Klobuchar, so even assuming all of Warren's voters went to Bernie (which they wouldn't have, based on polling at the time), Bernie still wouldn't have been able to get more votes than Biden even if Warren dropped out before the primaries. So trying to blame Warren for Bernie's loss is just factually and mathematically incorrect and scapegoating of the highest order.

Second its not that Warren was conspiring with the DNC to hurt Bernie, its just that she was just looking out for herself. Her decision to stay in the race was not to kneecap Bernie, it was to protect her own political career. Warren was fully aware of what I just stated. Bernie didn't have the numbers to beat Biden and his candidacy seemed doomed to fail. So dropping out in a desperate attempt to save Bernie would have been futile. Also, since Bernie had such little chance at that point, he had no leverage to offer Warren anything. He couldn't seriously offer her VP, or a cabinet position to drop out, because he didn't stand much chance of winning. More importantly, if Warren had dropped out to help Bernie, she would have invoked the wrath of the rest of the Democratic party that was rallying behind Biden. So she would have ruined her standing in the party, for nothing. She couldn't drop out. It made no sense practically or politically.

Finally, lots of Warren supporters, myself included, caused Warren to come in third in her home state by ditching her, and voting for Bernie instead... so its also factually incorrect to say that Warren choosing to stay in denied Bernie all those votes he supposedly would have gotten... I know this for a fact because I was a Warren supporter and I still voted for Bernie, because I knew at that point Warren had no chance and Bernie was the only hope to not end up with Biden. If I made that calculation, even living in Warren's home state, you can be sure that plenty of other Warren supporters all over the country connected those same dots. For all we know, all or most of the Warren supporters who were actually willing to switch to Bernie, did in-fact, switch to Bernie once they realized Warren couldn't win, I know I did. So its possible that Warren staying in didn't effect Bernie at all, because the people who stuck with Warren at that point were not willing to vote for Bernie at anyway.
 
When you mentioned the DSA etc a few days ago I was going to ask you to explain further, particularly in the context of Bernie, but then I got distracted and forgot to finish the post... but now you've basically answered my question so thanks.

EDIT:Looking back, I see now that I actually did post a quick inquiry at you, but I forgot to add specifics. Now I get to go back and see if you answered me...

So first, you can take a look at the DSA's electoral strategy document: https://electoral.dsausa.org/national-electoral-strategy/

The salient passage:
The Old Model: Assisting the Campaign

Historically, many progressive organizations have approached electoral work in a campaign-centered way. In this model, when a candidate espousing progressive positions ran for office, the organization supported their campaign by channeling donations and volunteers to it and by giving its public seal of approval to the campaign through endorsement. The goal was simply to elect as many people as possible who were sympathetic to the left. The link between candidate and organization here is quite weak: the organization may endorse an indefinite number of politicians, and the candidate, in turn, is likely to seek dozens of such endorsements.

In this model, candidate accountability is a very serious problem. After a successful race, the candidate possesses not only elected office and the power of incumbency, but all of the resources (staff, skills, experience, a donor list) required to run a successful campaign and stay in office; the organization, meanwhile, has little leverage over the candidate and little to show for the work of its volunteers.

Organizations that operate this way often settle for access to the candidate rather than accountability over him or her; the candidate may take meetings with the organization’s leadership, or attend its events. But over time, there is an inverse relationship between the imperatives of access and accountability: the organization will find itself lowering its standards merely to maintain access to those in power, in the vain hope of wielding influence over the officeholder, while perpetuating the concentration of power with the leaders of the organization who can enjoy that access.

The New Model: Building the Organization

The old model serves a purpose, but its limits are real. DSA chapters all over the country in 2017, together with other left and progressive electoral organizations, began assembling a new model: a model centered not on helping campaigns but on building a sustainable socialist political organization. Instead of loaning out our volunteer capacity to political candidates, we have begun to build electoral capacity within DSA—capacity responsible directly to the organization and democratically controlled by its members. What does this entail?

First and foremost, chapters that endorse candidates would build an independent field/canvassing operation trained and run directly by DSA, not the candidate.

Canvassing is the single most important factor in down-ballot races; equipping the chapter to control its own canvassing team immediately increases its capacity for electoral and non-electoral projects alike. Second, DSA should collect and maintain its own data. The enormously valuable data generated by field operations, which campaigns and party machines usually hoard, should stay with the DSA volunteers who generate it, for use in future campaigns—electoral and otherwise, allowing us to map neighborhoods and communities, in the same way we would do a workplace for a union drive. Third, DSA should have independent messaging. Locals should retain their own voice and canvass on their own issues with their materials and scripts, not merely borrow the messaging of the campaign. Fourth, DSA should have its own research capacity. Locals should be able to evaluate electoral opportunities and policy issues, and should not be forced to rely on the expertise of others on issues of candidate viability.

In other words, DSA chapters should strive to develop the full range of capacities required to run a down-ballot campaign from start to finish. It goes without saying that this goal is aspirational: Few if any DSA chapters currently have the skills, experience and capacity to fully embody it. But we believe it’s a long-term goal worth pursuing, for several reasons.

First, it will allow us to operate strategically and independently as an electoral force. Rather than simply reacting to the candidates available, a DSA chapter operating on this model would even be able to recruit and run its own candidates for office. Eventually, rather than passively evaluating candidate platforms, our chapters will be able to run candidates on the issues they consider important, in coordination with non-electoral work they are doing. And they will have increased leverage over the candidates they do run because they will have significantly more power to put them into—and hence to take them out of—office.

Second, it will allow us to break out of the election cycle and transform electoral work into organizing work that will help us grow our chapters, identify and train more leaders, and build up our collective capacity to achieve all of our chapters’ goals. The skills and knowledge required for electoral work, after all, are enormously useful in other kinds of campaigning: an organization that canvasses for a candidate one month can use the skills and data it collects to canvass for tenants’ rights the next month, if in canvassing for a candidate it has built its own campaign apparatus rather than loaning out volunteers to the candidate. All of us hope that DSA will be an organization that fights on many fronts in many ways, not only winning elections but organizing tenants and workers and pressuring the state for reform; we can best accomplish this by doing electoral work in a way that contributes to our organizational capacity rather than distracting from it.

Third, it will build working-class power independent of the Democratic Party and its local fiefdoms. Discussion of independence from the Democrats tends to revolve around the question of the ballot line, but it shouldn’t: most party power rests not in ballot access as such but in the network of consultants, politicos, lawyers, and party functionaries who control the means of electioneering in each state. Like most in DSA, we see the ballot line question as a tactical one to be addressed by local chapters in accordance with local circumstances—but we consider it essential that DSA escape the welter of Democratic patronage networks that have controlled and limited politics in the US for too long. To operate independently of this network we need to build our own electoral capacity, democratically controlled by DSA. Ultimately, it is not the name of the party under which a candidate runs that governs their decisions while in office, but the material conditions that inform the composition and capacity of the groups that form their coalition.

It's also worth taking a look at Metro DC DSA's document on their electoral strategy: https://dsaorganizer.org/2020/06/18/on-electoral-organizing/

It makes similar points, but expands on them, and also talks in more depth about, e.g. why forming a "labor party" or a "socialist party" is a terrible idea:

The point for socialists is not to own a ballot line, the point is to secure a government democratically controlled by the working class. Recent DSA experience has shown that strategic use of the Democratic Party ballot line has had an undeniable positive impact for the left and appears to be by far the surest path to doing so.

Fixating on the Democratic Party, either as an object for conquest, a villain to be destroyed, or a group to split from is strategically misplaced and misunderstands what that Party is. The Democratic Party of today is not a political party in the sense of historical socialist or communist parties. They are neither funded by member dues nor do they have strong mechanisms to enforce party discipline on members who are elected on their ballot line. Rather, the Democrats are a semi-governmental ballot line, a nexus of party functionaries, consultancies, and donors, and finally a powerful brand which commands the voting loyalties of a huge proportion of the country’s voters. Especially true among the voters we need to build a governing majority.

Unlike in most countries when you register your party affiliation you don’t go to that party’s local headquarters, you register with the state. This is highly unique to the United States and means that superimposing European left electoral models onto our conditions is deeply misleading. Because of this unique governmental party system the ballot line simply cannot be controlled, either by us or the Party establishment. In the vast majority of states and electoral contests (presidential caucuses being a notable exception) the ballot line of the Democratic Party is owned and operated by the state itself. Leadership can and does influence primary elections, but they cannot dictate who uses their ballot line; that is determined by a plurality of whoever chooses to vote in a Democratic Party Primary or Caucus.

By developing a party-like structure within DSA and using the Democratic ballot line where necessary, DSA can continue to both exercise democratic control over our own candidate selection and candidate discipline while also continuing to actually elect socialists to office. We believe that the left has been more successful electorally in the last four years than the last 50 years, in part due to the strategic orientation put forward in works such as “A Blueprint for A New Party.” To turn back on this model at this point would be a massive error.

Therefore, we support continuing to strategically use the Democratic ballot line to elect socialists. We reject the idea that third party ballot lines are a necessary precondition of a workers party or that pursuit of independent ballot lines as an end unto itself. Our goal is for strategic campaigns that grow the capacity and diversity of our organization, bring our ideas to a mass audience, and reshape the political terrain upon which the workers movement operates. In most cases the Democratic ballot line will be the most effective tactic to meet those ends.

Here's a good passage on utilizing the leverage of having a well-trained, committed canvassing team to court candidates:

For Mass Canvassing
As a cash-poor but volunteer-rich organization, DSA’s main electoral approach should be building large-scale canvassing operations. Canvassing is proven to be one of the most effective means of winning elections, both by persuading voters to provide support and in identifying existing supporters to motivate them to actually show up and vote. DSA’s unique canvassing capabilities help distinguish our organization from others. A chapter that can field fifty people to a canvass launch will make it one of the most effective political organizations in a region. Canvassing metrics, like doors knocked or volunteer numbers, also serve as an easy metric for demonstrating the value of DSA as a coalition partner.

Canvassing, especially when DSA can use and retain its own voter information system (e.g. the DSA instance of VAN), allows us to identify supporters not only of a particular candidate but also those who might be allies or supporters of other campaigns and struggles in the future. Canvassing also provides DSA organizers with essential skills that can be used for non-electoral efforts.

Therefore, we support building large scale canvassing operations as part of almost any DSA electoral campaign.

Against Astro-Turf Campaigning
Many campaign strategies such as hotspot flyering, hosting small house parties, or sinking massive amounts of money into mailers or other paid media can have some utility, but for DSA campaigns the opportunity cost of diverting volunteers or scarce funds away from canvassing is almost never a wise use of resources. Other campaigns do them, not necessarily because they are the most effective, but rather because they do not have what we have: a dedicated army of volunteers willing and able to put in the work of canvassing.

Therefore, we do not support diverting time, people, or resources away from canvassing operations unless there is a clear, fact-based case for why some other strategy would better support candidate victory and build power.

It should also be noted that DSA endorsing Bernie was a pretty controversial affair. A lot of DSA members felt that hitching their wagon to Bernie could make the DSA look like a mere appanage of the Bernie campaign itself, and whither goes Bernie, so too would go the DSA (which kind of ended up being true when DSA refused to endorse Biden and centrist politicos pitched a fit because "well, Bernie endorsed Biden!"), and, moreover, as you noted, it's kind of antithetical to the party's professed strategy, and it directly takes resources away from community/union organizing work and local candidate work. On the other hand, the DSA was pretty all-in for Bernie in 2016, and consequently they reaped big rewards for that association, with their highest growth in membership in decades. I can't remember for sure, but, as I recall, the ultimate decision for 2019-2020 was to leave it up to each respective local to decide whether or not to endorse Bernie and commit their resources to canvassing for him. I know that CDSA did endorse him, and when we canvassed we would canvass simultaneously for Bernie AND the local candidate of whichever ward we were working in that day. To be honest, I don't think it was such a good idea. It's hard to pitch two ideas simultaneously to someone who is typically already looking for an excuse to shut the door on your face, and so they're usually going to pick the name more familiar to them, which was invariably Bernie. And considering that, as DSA notes, the local races are always more consequential as regards the impact of even small, but committed canvassing groups, and considering Bernie already had his own separate large army doing door knocking, I think it was ultimately a mistake. But, as I said, Bernie was always a hail mary play. And DSA is enjoying another spike in new members this year. So in that respect it worked.






 
IBut all this crying about Biden is insane. The US in recent history has had both of its most recent Republicans share two factors.

1. Being elected by a minority of the popular vote, because of idiot leftists voting third-party/staying home, and the electoral college.
2. Those Republican Presidents being absolutely awful, killing a ton of people, and setting back leftwards progress.

The popular vote does not decide presidential elections, Republicans dont typically spend much in the largest media markets dominated by Democrats. The margin in California alone accounted for the difference in 2016. If Trump had a chance to win California, NY and Illinois he would have spent more resources there. But in 2016 Clinton spent too much in those markets and not enough in the rust belt which gave Trump his electoral victory. Instead of griping about people who wouldn't vote for them they should

2) stop killing tons of people... How many people died as a result of Clinton and Obama compared to Trump? Okay, they had 8 years but how many died? Sanctions on Iraq under Clinton may have killed 500k children and Obama destroyed Libya and Syria, so thats another ~1/2 million dead and millions running for their lives. How do you vote for mass murderers and then call other people idiots?
 
Republicans dont typically spend much in the largest media markets dominated by Democrats.
They just aren't charged for it. The bill for the airtime given to Trump's election campaign and subsequent administration by the FOX group alone would run into the billions.
 
Trump has done more drone strikes this year in Somalia, in 2020 alone!, than Bush and Obama did in total

We're talking about a presidential candidate who promised to go after their families and then shortly thereafter changed rules regarding reporting civilian casualties

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/22/obama-drones-trump-killings-count/

And then somehow the deaths under the Iran sanctions won't count because magically having a pandemic at the same time as being under brutal sanction means that we don't count those deaths against the person imposing the sanctions
 
And yeah, your movement and its explanation for its own loss is so sad. You are basically admitting that you can not win a popular primary majority. You had to rely on the 'establishment' to split their vote, and then browbeat them with a convention. An anti-democratic, and dumb strategy.
Presumably if no candidate had won the primary, both establishment candidates would also try to swing the convention in their favour?
 
The election is tightening and shifts in favor towards Trump at the moment -
Presidential Election of 2020 - Trend on 08-20-2020.png
 
Trump has murdered people too. I mean not invading as the US doesn't absolve you of very publicly allowing various other murderous states to invade stuff and kill. There was also the senile "they did not fight in Normandy" moment.

And didn't Yosemite Sam claim in his book that Trump is mixed in a scandal with Turkey (where banks typically are owned by the ruling family)? The same story which got some of his staff fired. Would explain a lot of this cretin's moves.
 
Trump has murdered people too. I mean not invading as the US doesn't absolve you of very publicly allowing various other murderous states to invade stuff and kill. There was also the senile "they did not fight in Normandy" moment.

And didn't Yosemite Sam claim in his book that Trump is mixed in a scandal with Turkey (where banks typically are owned by the ruling family)? The same story which got some of his staff fired. Would explain a lot of this cretin's moves.

Herbert Hoover was probably the last U.S. President, to date, who wasn't a war criminal, a blatant violator of the U.S. Constitution and public trust for "national security purposes," and/or an instigator of malicious and high criminal acts against their own citizens. Hoover was voted out 88 YEARS AGO, for a bit of perspective, there!
 
Trump has murdered people too. I mean not invading as the US doesn't absolve you of very publicly allowing various other murderous states to invade stuff and kill. There was also the senile "they did not fight in Normandy" moment.

And didn't Yosemite Sam claim in his book that Trump is mixed in a scandal with Turkey (where banks typically are owned by the ruling family)? The same story which got some of his staff fired. Would explain a lot of this cretin's moves.

Whatever Trump did so far will be peanuts compared to what comes if he is elected again.

And on Trump-Erdogan
Trump must be very jealous on Erdogan who is so much further than him with family business and all

Erdogan did build up his power over a long time:
As early as 1994, Erdogan, then mayor of Istanbul, told in an argument with writer Aziz Nesin about Sharia law: "Democracy is like a train, you get off when you reach your destination"
 
Whatever Trump did so far will be peanuts compared to what comes if he is elected again.

And on Trump-Erdogan
Trump must be very jealous on Erdogan who is so much further than him with family business and all

Erdogan did build up his power over a long time:
As early as 1994, Erdogan, then mayor of Istanbul, told in an argument with writer Aziz Nesin about Sharia law: "Democracy is like a train, you get off when you reach your destination"

Not worth having sanctions against him, though. Just focus on Belarus, which isn't connected to the Eu at all.
 
Again - this is your customized map Tuckerkao ... CNN still has theirs at 268-170.

You keep Texas as lean Republican when 3 of the last 6 polls in Texas show Biden narrowly ahead - with the 3 other polls showing Trump with a wider lead - 538 averages shows Trump 47.5 to Biden 45.8.

But you've moved Minnesota to battleground/tossup status - it is narrowing there the A- rated Emerson showing Biden's lead down to 2 shows that - but the poll from Trafalgar (a "C-" rated group) showing a tie is less significant - 538 averages shows Biden 50.4 to Trump 45.2
 
what's the exact word for this ? Because the phrase was "Demokrasi bir tramwaydır, gittiğimiz yere kadar gideriz, orada ineriz." (according to some search ı just did now) on July 14th , 1996 but then it's also possible the sentiment was voiced before .
2020-08-21-02-42-01-443352111.jpg


meaning "For us, Democracy is a ...., we will take it as long as we want/to the "bus-stop" we want to go and we will then get out of it" Turkish is a seriously flexible language at times hence the two options . Destination for bus-stop is of course a much better option .
 
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and of course yet another web search gives the impression that it involves the electronic ticket sales of the lstanbul Metropolitan Municipality which supposedly were lost to corruption , with 2.6 trillion or billion or whatever of the lira of the times ending up in the companies owned by the family of the PM's son-in-law . Money then reportedly used in the PR work for the elections .

it is seriously an awkward thing to say , he avoids such things even today but it would have been noted if there was things going on at the time of the newspaper interview . The newspaper famous for being read by the "closet Jews" in the country . As the court case in 2001 involved stuff happening between 1997 and 99 . lf you have imagination , you could assume his supporters and what not might not follow the rules of Democracy , with the tram running on rails , with so little of the flexibility of cars and whatnot and whatever .
 

"The only progressive thing about Joe Biden is his dementia"

US, "the most powerful country in the world", will have an election race between two cretins with fried minds. And yes, Biden is still better than Trump, cause even a radioactive egg would be, but you are blind if you don't see how stupid a nomination he is.
 
So first, you can take a look at the DSA's electoral strategy document: https://electoral.dsausa.org/national-electoral-strategy/

The salient passage:

It's also worth taking a look at Metro DC DSA's document on their electoral strategy: https://dsaorganizer.org/2020/06/18/on-electoral-organizing/

It makes similar points, but expands on them, and also talks in more depth about, e.g. why forming a "labor party" or a "socialist party" is a terrible idea

You're probably not going to agree or like to read it, but I think the DSA helped sink Bernie's campaign. They have an entirely misguided strategy, and fixations on things that they ought to leave alone. I can't spend the time now elaborating, but on the strategy: the Democratic Party, as in its current structures that control the "brand", does not need its "left wing" and will cut if off entirely and brand enemies sooner that let it influence policy. The fight for control of the party has already been fought and lost, while most people were distracting dreaming of St Mueller and russagate. It's gone.
 
hey have an entirely misguided strategy, and fixations on things that they ought to leave alone.

I'm sorry, how many successful election campaigns have you organized in the United States again?
 
You mean some thing worse than racist, Nazi, fascist, etc? I haven't voted for any mass murderers or called people idiots, even the people who do vote for them. Amoral, hypocritical, sure.

If you have voted for, intend to vote for or defend trump you are functionally, a facist enabler and racist enabler. You don't get the benefit of the doubt now, he's been in office.
 
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