I agree he won't likely win in Virginia, but I don't think it's as safe for the Democrats as you think. There have been some recent kerfuffles in Virginia that indicate a significant level of discontent with the state government. Whether or not Trump can use that discontent to sway the state in his favor remains to be seen.
2020 US Election (Part Two)
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I agree he won't likely win in Virginia, but I don't think it's as safe for the Democrats as you think. There have been some recent kerfuffles in Virginia that indicate a significant level of discontent with the state government. Whether or not Trump can use that discontent to sway the state in his favor remains to be seen.
Lexicus
Deity
I'm guessing Biden will carry the state by a larger margin than Clinton did. Interestingly, in 2016, when Virginia was not called for Clinton minutes after the polls closed is the moment I knew Trump would likely win. Or more accurately, when VA was called for Clinton after several hours and everyone in the bar I was at started cheering and applauding as if she had won Florida.
Edmund Ironside
White Rabbit Object
Though I expect Trump to win the debates there are a few positives for the Democrats:
1. Trump isn't actually very good at debating
-He's good during multi-person debates because he can keep the focus on himself, and does okay when by himself addressing his supporters, however not so good at one on one debates
-He is not actually a very coherent speaker, there are plenty of videos online where you have to try and work out what the hell he is talking about
-Most people would agree that Clinton won the 2016 debates
2. Do the debates even matter? Despite Clinton coming out stronger then Trump from the debates she still lost.
3. Though Biden does not do well in multi-person debates he does seem to do better in one on one settings. His best performance in the Democrat primaries (which isn't saying much) was the last one against Bernie Sanders. Also remember that Biden destroyed Paul Ryan in the 2012 VP debates (even if he may no longer be quite at this level)
4. Trump's MAGA fans have actually set up Trump for embarrassment. How bad will Trump look if he fails to out debate someone who is supposedly suffering from Dementia...
5. Kamala Harris will enter the VP debate as heavy favorite against Pence. Did you know she loves cooking? In fact she has been grilling Republicans since 2017!
That is not to say the debates aren't a risk. I think a lot of people who are planning to vote for Biden have a much less unshakable faith in him then Trump supporters do, so a poor debate performance could torpedo his chances.
By the way will the debates be streamed online? I don't have cable.
Usually you don't try to avoid a debate when you think it helps you.
But in theory Pelosi didn't ask Biden before making the statement the debates should not take place.
In theory some nigerian prince needs your help with his inheritance as well.
But in theory Pelosi didn't ask Biden before making the statement the debates should not take place.
In theory some nigerian prince needs your help with his inheritance as well.
Ajidica
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That was a problem going into the 2016 debates, the different bars for each candidate. Clinton's bar was that she would blow Trump out of the water, so when she turned in an acceptable performance, the perception was that she didn't do as well as she should have. Conversely, Trump's bar was some variation on not saying a no-no word / not try and grope Clinton; so even though it is generally accepted as having lost the debates, the perception was that he did rather well.
Gori the Grey
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Nothing matters.
I still don't get what kind of strategy it is to literally do nothing.
How is this supposed to win against a candidate who isn't affected by the Dnc?
Then again, did those who voted Biden in the primary, have zero ability to predict he would be doing nothing to energize the electorate? I doubt this. They just didn't care much, cause Bernie was worse in their view. Well, losing should be equally bad if it comes with Biden.
Anyway, remember what Moore predicted last time, cause he is predicting the same for 2020, unless something changes.
How is this supposed to win against a candidate who isn't affected by the Dnc?
Then again, did those who voted Biden in the primary, have zero ability to predict he would be doing nothing to energize the electorate? I doubt this. They just didn't care much, cause Bernie was worse in their view. Well, losing should be equally bad if it comes with Biden.
Anyway, remember what Moore predicted last time, cause he is predicting the same for 2020, unless something changes.
Given that people have lost health insurance during the pandemic, I'd think that putting in a public option for health insurance would be nearly its own win.
That would have been too difficult to sell to the oligarch backers of Dnc.
And yet it's now part of the platform?
A public option is wildly popular and makes pretty good sense.
Hm, then very good. But can you elaborate what this means, eg comparing it to universal healthcare that Bernie/AOC/similar argued for?
Cause if this is meaningful, it should be a campaign focal point - and I hadn't heard of it yet. Granted, I don't pay that much attention, but I do watch videos on the coming election and hadn't heard.
Well, from the platform
"The public option will
provide at least one plan choice without deductibles, will be administered by the traditional
Medicare program, not private companies, and will cover all primary care without any copayments
and control costs for other treatments by negotiating prices with doctors and hospitals,
just like Medicare does on behalf of older people."
It's not terrible. All of medicine needs a deflation inflection, nearly globally. But good luck convincing people of that.
"The public option will
provide at least one plan choice without deductibles, will be administered by the traditional
Medicare program, not private companies, and will cover all primary care without any copayments
and control costs for other treatments by negotiating prices with doctors and hospitals,
just like Medicare does on behalf of older people."
It's not terrible. All of medicine needs a deflation inflection, nearly globally. But good luck convincing people of that.
Timsup2nothin
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Biden is doing a fairly good job of cruising around being presidential. His visit to Kenosha was absolutely "what Obama/every president before would have done." His speeches on the current situation "we need to reform criminal justice and root out systemic racism, by the way violence is not protest, looting is not protest" outline basically the ONLY path forward, etc etc etc. He is definitely creating the sense that if he were president right now we would be WAY better off than we are with the bozo in chief we are currently stuck with.
Edmund Ironside
White Rabbit Object
I think whoever perceives that they are winning the contest is less enthusiastic to have debates as they feel they have more to lose. That is also presumably why Trump was asking for a ridiculous 6 debates (who would want to watch that many)! Also until the last couple of weeks the Dems probably thought their policy of keeping Biden for the most part out of the limelight was working. There haven't been any Biden gaffs lately unlike in the primaries. I bet Trump's team wish they could do this with Trump who almost daily is doing or saying something dumb (weaponized soup, encouraging election fraud in North Carolina, the war dead are losers, etc. - I know some of these happened a while back now but only just made the news).
I see in the betting Trump has almost drawn level with Biden (even though he is still behind in almost all battleground states). Also 90% of Trump supporters believe he will win compared to just 80% of Biden supporters who think Biden will win. I think after 2016 no one trusts the polls. There is some positive news for Biden though, the pollsters have at least tried to fix the issues from 2016. For example they are now weighting according to education, as that it was key issue with errors in 2016. In case anyone was unaware less educated people were much more likely to vote for Trump and more educated more likely to vote for Clinton (not meaning to disparage any Trump supporters here, well maybe just a little). Also there were a lot more undecided voters at this point in 2016 compared to 2020, and a lot of them ultimately broke for Trump. This time those undecided voters according to polls if push comes to shove are more likely to vote for Biden.
I am actually surprised that many of either Trump or Biden supporters are confident that their candidate will win. At the start of this year I thought it would be perhaps too close to call, and I still mostly think this. There are so many variables still, particularly with the chaos that will be voting this year. Could be a long election night too, with Trump likely to at least initially be ahead, and with states being called much later than normal.
https://www.ft.com/content/b3297609-e63b-4161-8287-7ab1179d0c40
Timsup2nothin
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There is likely not going to be any useful election night calls. Trump will declare himself the winner, and the right wing echo chamber will declare that the Democrats are "frantically trying to fake enough ballots to steal the election" but the expected volume of mail in voting and the expected very heavy split for the Dems among those choosing to vote by mail is going to make an election night call with any accuracy just impossible.
So I played "What was Trump asked about" across a couple of videos and scored less than 10% correct.
Then I tried two different random number generators from 1 to 4, and they also scored far below the expected 25% from just random guessing.
Trump is really something special.
I was recently treated to a song called ‘redneck girl’. The fact that such a thing can get traction and become a sellable cultural icon should speak volumes.
Patine
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I haven't heard the song, or know the artist, but given the sort of trash and absolute drivel that gets traction among some choice examples from ALL the music genres, what specific "volumes," should this song speak, really?
Cloud_Strife
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There is nothing Trump can do to alienate his own base; they will swallow whatever dogsqueeze he lays
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