2020 US Election (Part Two)

[Sommerswerd]

The election will be won or lost at the state level. National polls don't matter at all.

They matter, because they provide information. They just aren't the only thing that matters. If Biden was going into the election leading in national polling by 10%, that would be a strong indication that he was going to win the swing states that are the deciding factor.

Ultimately the only thing that really matters, in an extreme, bottom-line, minimalist sense... is the final result of the election itself... but if we're if we're boiling everything down that much, I guess we can all go eff off, stop talking about it entirely and just wait to see what the election result is... and that's no fun.

 

[Sommerswerd]

It is very unlikely that any states other than the total blowout states will be legitimately callable on election night. In all probability the only network that is going to make an election night call is Fox, and their "call" will be extensively covering Trump declaring himself the winner without bothering to say that there are no official results to support that.

I don't think FOX News would bother calling it for Trump if he lost North Carolina. At best they would just leave the result as inconclusive and let their viewers delude themselves. I'm hopeful that a few of the mail-in vote states will actually be able to make calls on election night. I've accepted that having an actual winner called is not really realistic, but I'm just hoping that somehow we manage to avoid the doomsday scenario I predicted, and which Bloomberg subsequently dubbed the "Red Mirage". I think that kind of phenomenon, coupled with Trump's inevitable trolling and agitation, could create a national crisis worse than 2000, and possibly even lead to open violence. Enough people have already died as a direct result of Trump's insanity. I'm hoping the election night can be the end, rather than just the beginning.

 

[Farm Boy]

Right. Bloomberg.

 

[Estebonrober]

I don't think FOX News would bother calling it for Trump if he lost North Carolina. At best they would just leave the result as inconclusive and let their viewers delude themselves. I'm hopeful that a few of the mail-in vote states will actually be able to make calls on election night. I've accepted that having an actual winner called is not really realistic, but I'm just hoping that somehow we manage to avoid the doomsday scenario I predicted, and which Bloomberg subsequently dubbed the "Red Mirage". I think that kind of phenomenon, coupled with Trump's inevitable trolling and agitation, could create a national crisis worse than 2000, and possibly even lead to open violence. Enough people have already died as a direct result of Trump's insanity. I'm hoping the election night can be the end, rather than just the beginning.

i am pretty much in @Phrossack (Come back) mode on it. I fear pretty much armed militias trying to rush vote counting sites when the recounts start.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I don't think FOX News would bother calling it for Trump if he lost North Carolina. At best they would just leave the result as inconclusive and let their viewers delude themselves. I'm hopeful that a few of the mail-in vote states will actually be able to make calls on election night. I've accepted that having an actual winner called is not really realistic, but I'm just hoping that somehow we manage to avoid the doomsday scenario I predicted, and which Bloomberg subsequently dubbed the "Red Mirage". I think that kind of phenomenon, coupled with Trump's inevitable trolling and agitation, could create a national crisis worse than 2000, and possibly even lead to open violence. Enough people have already died as a direct result of Trump's insanity. I'm hoping the election night can be the end, rather than just the beginning.

Good luck.

Lack of election night results is pretty much a given. If nothing else, fear of contributing to "the red mirage" or a comparable opposite situation will be running very high. I expect a lot of references to this from the media:

But in the absence of actual calls, Trump is going to declare himself the winner. That is as predictable as the sunrise. CNN will cover that event skeptically, if not outright mockingly, emphasizing that there are no official results that can support Trump's claim. But Fox will cover this "major news event" while "withholding any potentially biased opinion on the matter as a news organization should."

And that will be that. I plan to have the house stocked so that we can hunker down for several weeks if necessary.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Right. Bloomberg.

It was first called that on the Bloomberg website, that's the truth, what do you want from me?

And that will be that. I plan to have the house stocked so that we can hunker down for several weeks if necessary.

That's probably a prudent precaution, now that you mention it.

I will admit, however, that to me the most likely scenario is that there are a couple states called for Biden by the end of the night, and three to four times as many states called for Trump, with the rest being listed as either "too early to call" or "too close to call", Trump will then declare himself the winner because he's "winning" with the most states in his column at the end of the night.

FOX News will co-opt/enable this narrative of course, while the rest of the networks will be afraid to contradict it outright, by saying "No, Biden is likely to be the winner based on projections". Instead they will just sit on the fence and keep saying its too early to call, which Trump will use to accuse them of conspiring against him and evidence that Biden "the Democrats" and "the media" are refusing to concede his victory.

 

[Farm Boy]

You to be you? The sneer isn't for you, who I appreciate relaying the story. People I do like do also talk about bastards.

 

[El_Machinae]

i am pretty much in @Phrossack (Come back) mode on it. I fear pretty much armed militias trying to rush vote counting sites when the recounts start.

I think the only defense is for everyone doing mail-in ballots to announce on social media that they're doing so, to start creating the expectation that we won't know until later. So that everyone knows someone who mailed in a ballot

Recounts matter if it's a close race, it might happen. Trump agitating for widespread discontent the evening of Election Day WILL happen.

 

[Takhisis]

A hundred years ago the US decided it owned the Colorado River. The Colorado River Delta wetlands subsequently dried up. All of a sudden this has been noted as a grotesque environmental issue...mostly by environmentalist types in the US. Since the Colorado River Delta is actually in Mexico this makes it an international incident. Doesn't change the fact that the incident has been functionally over for half a century, but it's exciting...in Mexico, and in Argentina I guess.

If Mexico had anything near competent leadership you'd be in as much international disgrace as the US is for leaving the Paris Accords, but it is ruled by a Trumplike madman so you're basically profiting from their disgrace. Not that that's much different from general US-Mexico relations.

 

[Patine]

What is there to "rationally discuss"?
"Hi, let's have a rational discussion about Trump's policies. If you support his concentration camps, I think you belong in a concentration camp yourself"

Although I'm not a supporter of Trump (but I still think Biden is not what's needed for the U.S., either, and was a very poor, weak, and Establishment choice, and there really should be a third - or more - viable candidate who are not institutionally unable to win due to a rigged system), your statement above sounds very Antifa, indeed. And I'm, of course, referring to the ORIGINAL organizations that had that name, not the hooligans in ninja costumes in the U.S. today. I'm referring to the original Antifa of Yugoslavia, as well as the occupied countries by the Soviet Union that would be reformed to become the Cold War East Bloc in Europe. The same Antifa who were the instigators of among the first organized and institutional mass violations of human rights of process in those nations in the Communist Era, and foundational bedrock of infamous secret police agencies in those countries (like Stasi). And, like with all witch-hunts, a VERY large number of those targeted were NOT in any way, shape, or form Fascist. So, Comrade @Lexicus, I guess we'll all have to watch our backs - and words - around you!

 

[Gorbles]

Although I'm not a supporter of Trump (but I still think Biden is not what's needed for the U.S., either, and was a very poor, weak, and Establishment choice, and there really should be a third - or more - viable candidate who are not institutionally unable to win due to a rigged system), your statement above sounds very Antifa, indeed. And I'm, of course, referring to the ORIGINAL organizations that had that name, not the hooligans in ninja costumes in the U.S. today. I'm referring to the original Antifa of Yugoslavia, as well as the occupied countries by the Soviet Union that would be reformed to become the Cold War East Bloc in Europe. The same Antifa who were the instigators of among the first organized and institutional mass violations of human rights of process in those nations in the Communist Era, and foundational bedrock of infamous secret police agencies in those countries (like Stasi). And, like with all witch-hunts, a VERY large number of those targeted were NOT in any way, shape, or form Fascist. So, Comrade @Lexicus, I guess we'll all have to watch our backs - and words - around you!

I'm not finding that many results for "antifascists in Yugoslavia", but I'm guessing you don't mean Women's Antifascist Front of Yugoslavia? Because that would be a bit silly.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

If Mexico had anything near competent leadership you'd be in as much international disgrace as the US is for leaving the Paris Accords, but it is ruled by a Trumplike madman so you're basically profiting from their disgrace. Not that that's much different from general US-Mexico relations.

Have you noticed that USians generally just dgaf about 'international disgrace'?

 

[Takhisis]

See my smiley at the end of my post, Tim.

I'm not finding that many results for "antifascists in Yugoslavia", but I'm guessing you don't mean Women's Antifascist Front of Yugoslavia? Because that would be a bit silly.

AVNOJ: Death to Fascism, freedom to the people!

 

[EnglishEdward]

This could be because "international disgrace" is used by those
annoyed that they won't just do what other countries tell them to do.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I think it has more to do with being totally self centered.

 

[Gorbles]

AVNOJ: Death to Fascism, freedom to the people!

Ah right, Tito.

Still, that one's a bit of a complex example, as I can't help but feel Patine is rather ironically relying on general negative stereotypes and labels of "communism" to slander people in this thread. I guess it's okay when Comrade Patine does it though

 

[Patine]

I'm not finding that many results for "antifascists in Yugoslavia", but I'm guessing you don't mean Women's Antifascist Front of Yugoslavia? Because that would be a bit silly.

The Socialist People's Front of Yugoslavia (and most of the Warsaw Pact National Fronts, Fatherland Fronts, People's Fronts, etc. - the big forced coalitions by the each country's Communist Party with a bunch of other obstensibly separate, but ultimately yesman-for-a-show-of-legitimacy parties," were called by early names that had "Antifascist," in them - but these don't seem to have their own articles, but just a mention as a former name in the first sentence or two of the given political front's article's history section.

 

[Patine]

Ah right, Tito.

Still, that one's a bit of a complex example, as I can't help but feel Patine is rather ironically relying on general negative stereotypes and labels of "communism" to slander people in this thread. I guess it's okay when Comrade Patine does it though

Of course, I wasn't actually calling @Lexicus an actual "Communist," (I was just using the term "Comrade," for rhetorical emphasis), but only comparing his attitude to one singe facet. But, the modern public discourse is so enstupidated, people are just literalist thinkers to almost computer syntax nowadays, and the complete lack of ability or willingness to grasp comparative or relative thinking, that when I compare someone to one single facet of a notorious ideology or person's beliefs, I am automatically, no matter carefully I worded it, accused of calling that person all the way to completely being of that ideology or person's belief. And you, @Gorbles, are one of the worst offenders on these forums for this braindead and toxic form of response. It's another sign of the deterioration of civilization!

 

[amadeus]

I am physically incapable of taking it easy. I'm so high strung my butt is the third larger source of diamonds on the planet.

Maybe I’ll start the OT Neurotics Club then. I know I’d certainly qualify for membership.

It's hard, we can't figure out what the policy is or its goals because his words so often don't match reality.

Yeah, he doesn’t seem to be helping his case a whole lot.

 

[El_Machinae]

I don't think he really has much policy idea, and that's a major complaint from people who were close to him. He was hoping that the Republican machine would give him winners. He's gotten pretty good at figuring out what to say that they want to hear