2020 US Election (Part Two)

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Positive Trump polls spark polling circle debate

“There are more [shy Trump voters] than last time and it’s not even a contest,” Cahaly said, adding that it’s “quite possible” that the polling industry is headed for a catastrophic miss in 2020.

Thoughts on the “Shy Tory” factor this year? I’m not seeing it. If I were a pollster, I think my strategy this year would be to overestimate non-vocal Trump support so as to be less wrong than in 2016. :lol:
 
Positive Trump polls spark polling circle debate

“There are more [shy Trump voters] than last time and it’s not even a contest,” Cahaly said, adding that it’s “quite possible” that the polling industry is headed for a catastrophic miss in 2020.

Thoughts on the “Shy Tory” factor this year? I’m not seeing it. If I were a pollster, I think my strategy this year would be to overestimate non-vocal Trump support so as to be less wrong than in 2016. :lol:
I suspect "Shy Trumpist" is a factor, but it isn't something that can be picked up in polls as polls rely on someone self-reporting.
 
@Ajidica, I mean I’m not operating on any empirical basis when I say this but I don’t think the supposed stigma exists to the extent that is talked about in the media, at least this year as far as polling goes.

It seems like retconning shy Rs is a cheap out for pollsters that blew ‘16.
 
I mean, there were issues with the 2016 polls that pollsters made note to compensate for in 2018/2020.
In 2016 the "Shy Trumpists" was hard to deal with because support for Hillary on the margins was so weak and there were so many undecided voters (who broke heavily for Trump). How many of those undecided that broke for Trump were actually undecided or Shy Trumpists is basically impossible to say.
 
I mean, there were issues with the 2016 polls that pollsters made note to compensate for in 2018/2020.
I think that’s probably what’s happening this year. I doubt there are more of them than ‘16 so this supposed second upset? I don’t think it’s going to happen.

Drudge says Trump cancelled his hotel victory party. A sign of confidence it ain’t.

I wonder if Newsweek has already sent out a “Trump’s 2nd Term” issue already! :mischief:
 
Trump said today that doctors and nurses are faking covid deaths because they get paid more if they say people died from from it.
 
Trump said today that doctors and nurses are faking covid deaths because they get paid more if they say people died from from it.

What an utter goddamn ass
 
Here’s my 2020 plan: Trump and Biden both win. Madness? Let’s examine this closely. We drop coconuts on both of them ala some Gilligan’s Island plotline, put them both in studios made up to be the Oval Office. Camera one goes to Fox, camera two to CNN/MSNBC. Co-Presidents “govern” from their respective offices.

In the meantime, we find better candidates and just scrub the whole election thing. Think it can’t happen? Portugal’s Antonio Salazar slipped into a brief coma in 1968 and was replaced as Prime Minister. He eventually came to, and his handlers just pretended he was still in charge for the last few years of his life. Salazar was 79, not much older than Triden (Trump+Biden, how’s it sound?)
 
Things are getting increasingly spicy on FB. Recent FB status someone put up ended like this "Abortion is murder!! If you ignore Genocide in the USA and vote Democrat you are a heretic!! Eternity in hell is real!!"
:popcorn:
This is what I get for knowing people who mostly live in the battleground states of Michigan and Georgia!
 
Based on your location referencing George Bush, I am assuming you are in Texas? If so, you might be sweating not just from the heat, but on the prospect of Trump losing the state. He is up by only 1.2 in the polls, and in 2016 there was a 3% swing against Trump from what the polls predicted...
Any state that Trump is even in the polling, he will win.

This we can agree on. But a collapse in the third party vote might not be a good thing for Trump. For example Greens such as myself are more likely to vote for Biden over Trump (mainly due to Trumps anti-environmental policies & rhetoric), this is also shown in Rhode Island where their supporters blocked Howie Hawkin being on the ballot as a Green citing the dangers of Trump winning another election. Also third party 2016 voters favor Biden over Trump 2:1
In 2016 Greens were about 1.5MM, just over a full percent. In 2012 they were at 469K, not even a third of a percent. Libertarians were 1.276MM, 0.99% in 2012 and 4.489MM, 3.27% in 2016. The difference of over 3.2MM votes is 400K greater than the margin between Hillary and Trump

I suspect "Shy Trumpist" is a factor, but it isn't something that can be picked up in polls as polls rely on someone self-reporting.
I mean, there were issues with the 2016 polls that pollsters made note to compensate for in 2018/2020.
In 2016 the "Shy Trumpists" was hard to deal with because support for Hillary on the margins was so weak and there were so many undecided voters (who broke heavily for Trump). How many of those undecided that broke for Trump were actually undecided or Shy Trumpists is basically impossible to say.
It could be more than just shy. Trump supporters may be intentionally avoiding or lying to polls to give the appearance of weakness. I know of specific cases, but not how common it may be.
 
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It could be more than just shy. Trump supporters may be intentionally avoiding or lying to polls to give the appearance of weakness. I know of specific cases, but not how common it may be.
And I thought QAnon was a batty conspiracy theory.
 
@Ajidica
Whats happened to Minnesota nice? ;)
‘These guys are not very polite’: Biden calls Trump supporters who disrupted Minnesota rally
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...rupted-minnesota-rally-ugly-folks/ar-BB1ayG7f
Hahaha, only people who have never been to Minnesota thinks there is Minnesota Nice.
We are land of the passive aggressive Post-It note.

Unless of course it is related to snow, in which case Minnesota Nice is required. Digging people out of snowbanks, offering strangers a lift home, etc. All expected.
 
I often caution people against assuming Puerto Rico would be a dependable Democratic power center if it became a state. Many Latinx people in the US have conservative views and would likely support the GOP if only they would stop actively trying to put their children in cages and demonizing them 24/7.
Since Comrade uppi brought this to my attention I'd rather caution you against lumping all Latinos as the same thing, given that they don't even speak the same language if we count Brazilians and Haitians.

Roughly: Mexicans hate Trump and the GOP so they might just help tip the balance in e.g. Texas.
Cuban -and lately Venezuelan- exiles and their descendants pay attention to the lip service paid by Republicans about Cuba -and lately Venezuela- in spite of the fact that Donald Trump has had a licence to operate commercially in Cuba since 2010 issued by the Cuban government in the former case and that the US always bought up Venezuelan oil as long as there still was any oil production in Venezuela so his later talk of embargoes is just for show.
 
You're joking right?

No, just showing Edmund the proof he required. I said the fossil record made my case and he said I needed to show a past warm period with as many people.

It's funny that inno accuses people of being too partisan, quits the thread for a bit (nothing wrong with taking a break, to be clear), and then gets quoted by two of the most politically-partisan voters in OT.

Fair, non-partisan Democrat: The evil Republicans are killing people
Most partisan voter in OT: The Democrats are killing people too
Fair, non-partisan Democrat: Thats whataboutism, you're hyper partisan

He literally thinks entire countries disappearing under flooding is supporting more people lol

There's far more land that becomes inhabitable and arable in a warmer world

I actually think that if this had happened with Clinton in charge there's a good chance it would have been 'discovered' much earlier, at least treated as a threat much earlier, and the US would hopefully have tried to lead some international cooperation in dealing with the virus in China, before it could spread around the world. If that had happened the world could look very different now.

It wouldn't have mattered who was President if they followed the advice they got from the experts about downplaying the threat to avoid panic buying of PPEs. We have video of Pelosi and other bigshot Democrats doing exactly that (come visit Chinatown)... and then blaming Trump of course.

The human population has been increasing rapidly for a long time, clearly not related to current global warming. The human population started to rise after the last Ice Age. Your original point was that humans would do better in a warmer climate then now. You have presented no evidence to back this claim up. Either present evidence that global temperature rises of 3c or higher then current would support more human life then currently, or admit your point is worthless.

I have presented evidence, you dismissed it because the warmer world I cited didn't have as many (or any) people as today. So now my evidence is today, yesterday, tomorrow, next year... There will be more people in a warmer world.

You seem to describe the last ice age as 'temperate' and temperatures since then as 'global warming.'

The last ice age was on the severe side, the global warming that followed was interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold reversal (12,900-11,700bp) but when it resumed the temperature rose far more far faster than what we're experiencing. Up to 18F in Greenland in a few decades. Your own link shows the early Holocene was warmer than today.

"most of the world's population live in areas with a mean annual temperature of between 11 and 15 degrees Celsius (51.8 to 59 degrees Fahrenheit)," with global warming likely to move us away from this desirable temperature range.

Sounds like a San Francisco summer. What do you set your thermostat at?

I also fear the Greenland temperature ranges you are quoting might be based on faulty information?

The data I've seen estimate the YD warming was 10+-4C or 18+-7F within a few decades.
 
If you're profiting from foisting negative externalities onto others, but assuming that 'everything will be fine', then what happens is that after the data is collated, you recompense the damage done. It's not perfect, but it works. If you're playing softball in the neighborhood, and accidentally smash a neighbor's window, you pay for the window. You know you could have, you took the risk, and it happened.

Externalities from AGW are currently assumed to be about $50 USD per tonne. A lump-sum transfer to those damaged by AGW (for all of your emissions since 1997, even in the future) would absolve someone for current dismissal of the threat. It's why I had to start taking the threat seriously, early, because I cannot live a life of seizing the shoreline of people far away and telling them it's for their own good. Luckily, with AGW both the damages and the offsets are fungible.
 
Hahaha, only people who have never been to Minnesota thinks there is Minnesota Nice.
We are land of the passive aggressive Post-It note.
Being an egregious offender of the insane Scandinavian-inspired social order, I have been now in self-imposed exile for over a decade.

I was socially isolated growing up, so I feel I have no obligation to abide by the very rules that excluded me from that society.

The last dinner roll? It’s mine. :devil:
 
The 8th slice of pizza is decorative.
 
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