Alternate history exercise - Middle East without Islam

[Winner]

Let's say that Muhammad is never born, or he dies prematurely or he never goes insane enough to invent Islam. How would the region of Arabia/Levant/North Africa/Mesopotamia/Asia Minor/Persia evolve without this religion?

Moderator Action: Infraction for Islam baiting. - KD
Please read the forum rules: http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=422889

Which religion would be dominant - would Christianity expand eastwards, or would the Persians eventually push the Byzanties out of Levant/Egypt and impose Zoroastrianism, just as the Arabs imposed Islam? What would happen to North Africa/Egypt? Or Spain? And would the absence of the Islamic enemy benefit the Christian Europe, or vice versa?

 

[Kraznaya]

We'd still be in the dark ages.

 

[Winner]

Oh, PC police have arrived I should have added a disclaimer into the OP. So, for those who just want to troll, do it somewhere else.

Moderator Action: Infraction for snide remark/PDMA. - KD
Please read the forum rules: http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=422889

I am interested in realistic suggestions - especially from people who have some understanding of the history of the region.

 

[Dachs]

There will be an Arab heresy and we'll be living in the same world, except replace "Islam" with "Crazy Arab Christianity."

Or we'd just see an expansion of monophysitism. I hear the Copts were pretty popular back then, and ever since Baradaios was able to create his parallel clergy they were basically impossible to exterminate by conventional means.

The Byzantine Empire and the Sassanian Empire are both going to last a helluva lot longer. There is no chance in hell of the Sassanians or any successor state of theirs defeating the Byzantines, especially not after Herakleios beat the living [crap] out of them. To be honest, there never really was; in the Roman-Persian wars, it was never a question of annihilation of one side or the other, but mostly of struggles for smaller advantages in the Caucasus and Assyria. Heavy exogenous shock is going to be necessary to alter the Roman-Persian equilibrium, and without the impact of Islam I dunno what that shock will be. Nomadic Arabs might establish an empire without Islam, tho.

 

[Cheezy the Wiz]

When the Arab forces made their "breakout" of the Arabian peninsula, both the Persians and Byzantines were completely punch-drunk, which was one reason why Arab expansion was so easy: they had already done the job of beating each other. That kept in mind, Christianity was already somewhat widespread in both Egypt as well as Iraq and the Holy Land, and spreading into Persia. Hell, Mohammad's paternal uncle Abbas was a Christian. This forward motion of Christianity kept in mind, as well as the great lack of proselytizing of Zoroastrianism, makes me think that Christianity of some sort would probably have become the dominant religion in the ME. And, given the steppe and barbarian tribes' rather ready acceptance of Islam in real history, perhaps we can assume a similar acceptance of Christianity. The dominant forms would probably be Catholicism in North Africa, Copt in Egypt, and Syrian or Armenian further East.

EDI: Dachs crosspost!

 

[Winner]

Or we'd just see an expansion of monophysitism. I hear the Copts were pretty popular back then, and ever since Baradaios was able to create his parallel clergy they were basically impossible to exterminate by conventional means.

The Byzantine Empire and the Sassanian Empire are both going to last a helluva lot longer. There is no chance in hell of the Sassanians or any successor state of theirs defeating the Byzantines, especially not after Herakleios beat the living [crap] out of them. To be honest, there never really was; in the Roman-Persian wars, it was never a question of annihilation of one side or the other, but mostly of struggles for smaller advantages in the Caucasus and Assyria. Heavy exogenous shock is going to be necessary to alter the Roman-Persian equilibrium, and without the impact of Islam I dunno what that shock will be. Nomadic Arabs might establish an empire without Islam, tho.

Or the Mongols? Their expansion would probably hit Persia hard, which might give they Byzantines an advantage.

What about the rest of the world - North Africa, Europe?

 

[Winner]

When the Arab forces made their "breakout" of the Arabian peninsula, both the Persians and Byzantines were completely punch-drunk, which was one reason why Arab expansion was so easy: they had already done the job of beating each other. That kept in mind, Christianity was already somewhat widespread in both Egypt as well as Iraq and the Holy Land, and spreading into Persia. Hell, Mohammad's paternal uncle Abbas was a Christian. This forward motion of Christianity kept in mind, as well as the great lack of proselytizing of Zoroastrianism, makes me think that Christianity of some sort would probably have become the dominant religion in the ME. And, given the steppe and barbarian tribes' rather ready acceptance of Islam in real history, perhaps we can assume a similar acceptance of Christianity. The dominant forms would probably be Catholicism in North Africa, Copt in Egypt, and Syrian or Armenian further East.

EDI: Dachs crosspost!

OTOH Persia had pretty strict religious policy, so I imagine it would not welcome Christian missionaries with open arms...

 

[Dachs]

Or the Mongols? Their expansion would probably hit Persia hard, which might give they Byzantines an advantage.

Mongols don't happen for awhile. Early collapse of the Gokturk Empires is a better bet.

What about the rest of the world - North Africa, Europe?

North Africa is still Byzantine - they have the Exarchate of Carthage. The Exarchs might try separatism, and it's worked sort of well for them in the past, cause that was how Herakleios got to the throne. In OTL Yennadios would try to break off, but Konstas II Pogonatos would forestall it.

Europe, you got the Visigoths, who are basically limping along, and if nobody mercy-kills them as happened in OTL maybe they might actually get their act together, unlikely as it seems. Franks have internal problems that, without the OTL defeat of Odo, might not get resolved - frankly p) it's out of my area of expertise. I doubt much will interfere with the Slavic migrations, or rather what's left of them, and the setup of the first Slavic states.

What's more interesting to me personally is how the imperial leadership will deal with the religious dynamics in the Levant without Islam. Since there are no military defeats like Yarmuk, Herakleios' monothelite compromise would theoretically hold, because a large part of its success was based on imperial military victories.

 

[warpus]

The Byzantine Empire and the Sassanian Empire are both going to last a helluva lot longer. There is no chance in hell of the Sassanians or any successor state of theirs defeating the Byzantines, especially not after Herakleios beat the living [crap] out of them. To be honest, there never really was; in the Roman-Persian wars, it was never a question of annihilation of one side or the other, but mostly of struggles for smaller advantages in the Caucasus and Assyria. Heavy exogenous shock is going to be necessary to alter the Roman-Persian equilibrium, and without the impact of Islam I dunno what that shock will be. Nomadic Arabs might establish an empire without Islam, tho.

What about the Seljuks? Wouldn't they still migrate from central asia and conquer Constantinople?

 

[Dachs]

What about the Seljuks? Wouldn't they still migrate from central asia and conquer Constantinople?

I mentioned Gokturks... It's up in the air as to whether the Turks will, without being Muslim and without the rather unfortunate and unlikely chain of circumstances leading to Manzikert, be ending up in the same spot. I rather doubt it.

Nitpick...Seljuqs didn't conquer Constantinople...

 

[Yui108]

I mentioned Gokturks... It's up in the air as to whether the Turks will, without being Muslim and without the rather unfortunate and unlikely chain of circumstances leading to Manzikert, be ending up in the same spot. I rather doubt it.

Nitpick...Seljuqs didn't conquer Constantinople...

Aren't the Ottomans descendents of the Seljuks?

 

[Dachs]

Aren't the Ottomans descendents of the Seljuks?

They liked to claim that was the case. Are today's Italians Romans?

 

[aelf]

The best we can say is they all originated from either the Golden Mountains or the Ordos Desert.

 

[Tee Kay]

To be honest, there never really was; in the Roman-Persian wars, it was never a question of annihilation of one side or the other, but mostly of struggles for smaller advantages in the Caucasus and Assyria. Heavy exogenous shock is going to be necessary to alter the Roman-Persian equilibrium, and without the impact of Islam I dunno what that shock will be.

Tang China?

When the Arab forces made their "breakout" of the Arabian peninsula, both the Persians and Byzantines were completely punch-drunk, which was one reason why Arab expansion was so easy: they had already done the job of beating each other. That kept in mind, Christianity was already somewhat widespread in both Egypt as well as Iraq and the Holy Land, and spreading into Persia. Hell, Mohammad's paternal uncle Abbas was a Christian. This forward motion of Christianity kept in mind, as well as the great lack of proselytizing of Zoroastrianism, makes me think that Christianity of some sort would probably have become the dominant religion in the ME. And, given the steppe and barbarian tribes' rather ready acceptance of Islam in real history, perhaps we can assume a similar acceptance of Christianity. The dominant forms would probably be Catholicism in North Africa, Copt in Egypt, and Syrian or Armenian further East.

Don't forget Judaism was pretty well established in the Arabian Peninsula as well. Could the Jews expanded their presence in the Middle East to be a significant force, should Byzantine hegemony weakened?

The Sassanids were actually pretty serious about establishing Zoroastrianism as the state religion in Persia, unlike the Achemenids. Save for a few more tolerant Shahs the Sassanids actively persecute Christians, Manicheans and other minorities. Mesopotamia might become Christian, but Persia itself would probably remain Zoroastrian, though it largely depends on how successful the Sassanids are. If the Sassanids last long enough and can spare troops away from the Roman front then perhaps they would convert parts of India as well.

I mentioned Gokturks... It's up in the air as to whether the Turks will, without being Muslim and without the rather unfortunate and unlikely chain of circumstances leading to Manzikert, be ending up in the same spot. I rather doubt it.

Nestorian Christianity might make some progress in Central Asia, or Manicheaism. Considering the typical Sassanid policies against these religions, we could have a possible casus belli against the Persian Empire.

 

[Dachs]

Tang China?

Don't forget Judaism was pretty well established in the Arabian Peninsula as well. Could the Jews expanded their presence in the Middle East to be a significant force, should Byzantine hegemony weakened?

Doubtful after Abraha rolled through. Judaism isn't a proselytizing religion, and even the Monophysites were not particularly fond of them in Egypt and the Levant.

Nestorian Christianity might make some progress in Central Asia, or Manicheaism. Considering the typical Sassanid policies against these religions, we could have a possible casus belli against the Persian Empire.

What is this, Europa Universalis? They don't need a casus belli, the two states have been fighting long enough for them to have a mountainful. Easy one is that the Persians are angry about the Byzantines taking the opportunity to snag old Roman Mesopotamia (the stuff that Iovianus ceded) during their civil wars of the late 620s and early 630s.

What the Nestorian converts might provide (assuming the Byzantines don't just write them off as dirty heretics - likely) would be playing the role of a distraction for the Persians and a possible faction with which to ally in the event of occupations.

 

[Tee Kay]

What is this, Europa Universalis? They don't need a casus belli, the two states have been fighting long enough for them to have a mountainful. Easy one is that the Persians are angry about the Byzantines taking the opportunity to snag old Roman Mesopotamia (the stuff that Iovianus ceded) during their civil wars of the late 620s and early 630s.

What the Nestorian converts might provide (assuming the Byzantines don't just write them off as dirty heretics - likely) would be playing the role of a distraction for the Persians and a possible faction with which to ally in the event of occupations.

I was actually referring to a possible conflicts between Persia and Turks or other people from the steppes.

 

[Dachs]

I was actually referring to a possible conflicts between Persia and Turks or other people from the steppes.

Since when do they need a casus belli?

 

[nokmirt]

Let's say that Muhammad is never born, or he dies prematurely or he never goes insane enough to invent Islam. How would the region of Arabia/Levant/North Africa/Mesopotamia/Asia Minor/Persia evolve without this religion?

Moderator Action: Infraction for Islam baiting. - KD
Please read the forum rules: http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=422889

Which religion would be dominant - would Christianity expand eastwards, or would the Persians eventually push the Byzanties out of Levant/Egypt and impose Zoroastrianism, just as the Arabs imposed Islam? What would happen to North Africa/Egypt? Or Spain? And would the absence of the Islamic enemy benefit the Christian Europe, or vice versa?

Very simply put, there would be alot of journalists out of work, and no sand . .. .. .. .. .. . jokes...ha ha. Seriously though, my thought is that all the knowledge we have acquired during and since the Reconquesta would have been lost, or set back. We possibly would be far behind in science and technology. There is a book called "what if" that dealt with a scenario similiar to this. I read it but awhile ago and it was very interesting. You should give it a read.

 

[Yui108]

Very simply put, there would be alot of journalists out of work, and no sand . .. .. .. .. .. . jokes...ha ha. Seriously though, my thought is that all the knowledge we have acquired during and since the Reconquesta would have been lost, or set back. We possibly would be far behind in science and technology. There is a book called "what if" that dealt with a scenario similiar to this. I read it but awhile ago and it was very interesting. You should give it a read.

I've read both the What If books. Which scenario are you referring to?

 

[civ_king]

Islam was just a new spin on Christianity... as Christianity was a new spin on Judaism