Alternate History Thread IV: The Sequel

Europe will most likely enter the Renaissance earlier, led by Italy as in OTL, but due to the lack of massive serfdom dieoffs, some feudal/chivalric systems could remain viable, even with the faster urbanization.

Some points here:
a) France would probably play a much bigger role than in OTL, probably asserting a form of cultural dominance in Europe much earlier. It was all set to do that before the plague came;
b) The New World is likely to be discovered earlier, quite possibly by the English;
c) As to social and technological progress, I'd imagine it would be somewhat hindered by the surviving feudal systems; in the long term, I predict earlier and more violent social change, possibly with some socio-political revolutions intertied with the occasional heresy. For some reason I can't shake off the thought of a Gallican Republic of France rampaging in the early 16th century.

there will be a Greco-Veneto-Genoan scramble for ports in the Holy Land and Egypt.

Not really. The Black Death was always very good at killing off trade; if anything, there would be a desperate scramble for new sources of income elsewhere (like in West Africa) amidst a growing socio-economical crisis.

Also, the Byzantines were by then ruined beyond all salvation. At best they may linger on, but I suspect they would be consumed by the unplagued Hungarians instead.

Brandenburgers in India

Brandenburg was just about nothing at all back then, and certainly it had no sea power. The best you could hope for is the Hansa, but why would it even want to go to India, especially if India got plagued?

especially if the Catholic Church manages to call a new crusade

Why? I could see some symbolic efforts in Jerusalem, but nothing more.
 
Well, the entirety of Asia has been depopulated, so we can assume that a variety of late 14th century European adventurers attempting to carve out small lordships can do so, and North Germans would be the most likely, given population pressures and perhaps in response to consolidative efforts from the HRE.

The Byzantine Empire was indeed ruined, but they're the most strategically placed to liberate the Hellespont, and would probably (with Genoan assistance) be attempting to set up trade routes to get at those Indian natural resources, before the other powers mobilize to launch naval expeditions.

A reconquered Jerusalem seems like the gateway to an empty Asia, so you'd have papal-endorsed crusaders, national armies, and brigands alike embarking from here and Acre. That is, before Africa is circumnavigated, this time by Venetians/Genoans or English.

EDIT: On the social revolutions, it would be interesting if the initial crusader/adventurer states brought a European feudal system of the High Middle Ages to the Middle East and Asia, areas which would later form the backbone of the conservative resistance to those violent social changes (specifically, Third Estate rebellions en masse) that will soon overrun Europe.

We might even see some exile monarchies in the Orient fighting a transcontinental war against the radical republics that have seized power in Europe, by the 17th century that is.
 
Well, the entirety of Asia has been depopulated, so we can assume that a variety of late 14th century European adventurers attempting to carve out small lordships can do so, and North Germans would be the most likely, given population pressures and perhaps in response to consolidative efforts from the HRE.

Not bloody likely. They had many other places to colonise.

In any case, most of Asia is quite worthless to the Europeans if not populated. If wholly devastated then I would imagine that war-bands would eventually spread from the frontier countries to the nearby lands, but not from Germany. Italians and Spaniards, and the occasional Greeks/Slavs are more like it.

The Byzantine Empire was indeed ruined, but they're the most strategically placed to liberate the Hellespont, and would probably (with Genoan assistance) be attempting to set up trade routes to get at those Indian natural resources, before the other powers mobilize to launch naval expeditions.

Again, why? India is so god-damn far away, and those "natural resources" are, once again, quite worthless without a sufficient labour force (but when they do get around to colonising it, expect African slaves to be shipped to India rather than America ;) ).

In any case, I don't believe that Byzantines of all the people are in any way capable of any major endeavours of this kind by this point.

papal-endorsed crusaders

What the hell does the Pope want with India when there are heretics and schismatics at every corner in Europe?

national armies

Medieval national armies, hur hur hur. What monarch would be stupid enough to send an actual army to invade an empty, barren, far-away land when he has neighbours who are just waiting for the opportunity to stab him in the back? In any case, don't those neighbours seem like a far better target?


That's really just about the only ones you'll get there, I'd imagine...

Having said that, there might also be some Jews, gypsies, heretics and other outcasts fleeing to the barren lands. Conflict with those people, especially the heretics, sounds like it could eventually stimulate mainstream Christian expansion, until the crusaders over-reach themselves and the outcasts become a sufficient force in their own right.
 
What the hell does the Pope want with India when there are heretics and schismatics at every corner in Europe?

Nothing with India, yet. But the Holy Land is ripe for the taking, and there aren't any triple-pope Council of Constance issues to work through. In addition, the Catholic Church won't have lost any clout due to the Plague, and can still effectively order a crusade, at least from Hungary and others more eager to capture Anatolia.

Medieval national armies, hur hur hur. What monarch would be stupid enough to send an actual army to invade an empty, barren, far-away land when he has neighbours who are just waiting for the opportunity to stab him in the back? In any case, don't those neighbours seem like a far better target?

You'll have to ask the Crusaders. Again, largely feudal, and Jerusalem-centric, possibly angling for control of Antioch, Alexandria and some other major port centers.

Having said that, there might also be some Jews, gypsies, heretics and other outcasts fleeing to the barren lands. Conflict with those people, especially the heretics, sounds like it could eventually stimulate mainstream Christian expansion, until the crusaders over-reach themselves and the outcasts become a sufficient force in their own right.

All of Europe's heretics certainly will have somewhere to flee to. Perhaps we'll see Martin Luther rallying Protestants across the Punjab one day. :p
 
das said:
No way. Can you imagine the Electors ever voting for someone this much more powerful than themselves?
Who else is going to save them from the Turkish menace as the Ottomans spill into central Europe? Yeah, if Vienna holds anyway then Louis sure as hell won't get elected, but it's been posited many, many times that if the Ottomans had seized Vienna then Louis would have simply switched his attention from the silly Reunion policy and intervened to "save" Germany.
das said:
Actually, who they might elect to counter Louis is a certain William from a country well-known for its opposition to France. ;)
Well if they aren't going to go for Louis or his Prusso-Polish buddies then yeah, that pretty much goes without saying.
das said:
Heh. What proper althistory isn't?
Exactly. :p
das said:
We will just have to go with one of the variants. I agree that it would be better to start either before or after the war; but after the war appears as distinctly more fun to me, because otherwise it's just a plain old 17th century NES (not that it's a bad thing, we need one, indeed we need many, but why bother with making some minor changes for it?).
Also, before the war it hasn't really had enough time to diverge into something reasonably different. Most of the time, we take althists more than just ten years into the future (the notable exception being the excellent PoD-of-the-Day involving Cavaignac's 1848 France), because if we're going to play something that similar to the real world we might as well do a historical NES without the "alt". Besides, the whole in-character debate aside, I'm pretty sure we wouldn't get a realistic result if NESers were charged with playing their countries to develop the TL that early. ;)
 
Okay, try clicking on this thumbnail. It's 1840 and das probably already knows the PoD. I apologize in advance for the poor city placement, but the borders should be more or less right and ought to convey the basic idea fairly well.
 
Germany (or some variant of it) is unified already and it has two capitals...

Austria also has alot more Italian land than in OTL I think too.

Now, if I knew a little more history, I could connect the dots :p

EDIT: WHOAH, royal marriage between Poland & Russia? Or has Poland always been Russia...hmmm...:confused:

This must be one of those Poland PoD's that das loves so much.
 
Germany (or some variant of it) is unified already and it has two capitals...
Frankfurt is the official capital; Berlin is the one where things are actually run.
Azale said:
Austria also has alot more Italian land than in OTL I think too.
Yes, that is true. Tuscany, Parma, and Modena have been added to the Habsburg empire in addition to Lombardy and Venetia. In OTL at this point they were under Habsburg rulers but now they are all under Vienna's formal control.
Azale said:
EDIT: WHOAH, royal marriage between Poland & Russia? Or has Poland always been Russia...

This must be one of those Poland PoD's that das loves so much.
Not a royal marriage; that would be sort of silly with the elective kingship that Poland had. :p To the second, I can't say that I understand what you're saying. And the PoD is decidedly not in Poland.
 
I want stats for that. I wanna mod that one day.

Oh and my guess would be something to "not" do with Napoleon?
 
I want stats for that. I wanna mod that one day.
Knee-jerk reaction? :p What sort of stats - in two weeks' time I'll have all the time in the world, and can probably make you something.
Luckymoose said:
Oh and my guess would be something to "not" do with Napoleon?
What d'you mean by that?

EDIT: IP, you know way too much already to guess. And it does have "something to do with Napoleon".
 
Belgium annexed all of Europe only to release them instantly as vassals? :p
If that happened then why is Belgium missing a goodly chunk of her eastern territory?
 
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