Alternate History Thread IV: The Sequel

[silver 2039]

Addes "survival zone" and first few colonization efforts in europe by muslims...and changed thread XD I think it's better here.

Is this a Years of Rice and Salt map?

 

[Flavius Aetius]

Yes, it is.

 

[silver 2039]

Nice, are you modding it? And didn't the Timurids own most of Persia?

 

[Flavius Aetius]

Probably, when some NES quit...I think there are too many currently.

 

[Daftpanzer]

Random thought:

Just wondering if anyone has ever wondered, what if there actually was a 'terra australis', a large landmass stretching from the indian ocean to the pacific, and swallowing up australia, new zealand and parts of indonesia?

I guess it all depends on the terrain and climate of the continent so its a pretty mute question. But I think it would be interesting if indian-inspired civilizations emerged there, or maybe a strong native culture of its own which could form a barrier to european trade with china and japan in later centuries...

 

[das]

those are the Khazars in charge of Africa (they're Muslim)

Africa?

As to the absence of WW I, here are some points:
- Unless the Germans decide to back out of their competition for world hegemony with the British now (and that's sensible, in a way, but not really likely), there will be a huge and escalating arms race. Ships, dirigibles and suchlike will get obscene, probably inefficiently so as show-off weapons tend to be;
- Economic warfare will be set to the max, ofcourse;
- That which is not yet carved up between/conquered by great powers will be. China('s coastal regions) is obvious; Siam and Ethiopia are likely enough to get eaten as well; if we have enough time, the Ottoman Empire will probably get carved up as well. After or instead of that, there is Latin America; if the Germans don't stop expanding they'll pretty much have to try and grab something there, informally ofcourse, and that will lead to tensions with Britain and USA;
- I think it's probably too late for Russia to go back to Germany without some major geopolitical catastrophe (and the whole point of this scenario is to keep the previous dominant trends going for as long as possible without blowing up the system). The social tensions were more or less receding - riots and terrorism still occurred, but it was nothing compared to what went on before. I think that, on the balance, Russia will grow stronger, social tensions aside: the industrialisation was proceeding in a good pace, and had the war started in, say, late 1916 I think the Russians would've done infinitely better than in OTL as they would actually have a proper military railroad in Poland and a stronger Black Sea Fleet. As to economical influence, the French were doing well enough in OTL; they would not be enough as the industrialisation continues - but the Americans were already growing interested in Russia, given all those negotiations that were rudely interrupted by the war;
- Some of the neutrals will probably be forced to take sides eventually;
- So in general, what we are looking at here is a cold war without nukes that will go on until the interests of the sides involved clash way too much and everything blows up. I predict that the flashpoint will probably be in Latin America; Germans will be interested in getting in there, all other naval powers will want to stop that, and unless the Germans back down (and thus send their economy and politics into a major crisis) the spark will fall there and ignite the power-keg - only, it would be the power-keg of the entire world, not just Europe. A true world war;
- Alternatively, ofcourse, the Germans could just back down like the Soviets did in the OTL Cold War. It wouldn't be nearly as a big a disaster as it was for the USSR... but it still will hurt a lot on many levels. After recovering from that, though, a major diplomatic restructuring in the world is likely. This may actually be the more interesting option.

France will probably come to deal with the loss of Alsace-Lorraine

Ah-ha-ha-ha.

the Italians getting a chunk of Anatolia (perhaps in concert with the Greeks; that's wide open and could go either way though)

Italians will get nothing (who cares about them when they aren't needed to open a new front, anyway?) and neither, in all the probability, will the Greeks. I think that the rump Ottoman Empire will just remain a German satellite, without any territorial concessions in Turkey Proper of all places. They might not even give away Armenia, the Russians having troubles of their own. The French will get Syria-Lebanon, the British will get Palestine-Transjordan, but all the major regions through which the Berlin-Baghdad railroad passes will probably be kept nice and Ottoman under German protection.

Just wondering if anyone has ever wondered, what if there actually was a 'terra australis', a large landmass stretching from the indian ocean to the pacific, and swallowing up australia, new zealand and parts of indonesia?

Depends on what parts of Indonesia. And how far into the Indian Ocean does it extend. You see, if it's just a few islands on the southeast of Indonesia plus Australia and New Zealand it will probably have some interesting implications for the spice trade and a very different Australian culture, possibly even leading to an earlier European (and pre-European) colonisation; but probably not much more.

 

[Disenfrancised]

Random thought:

Just wondering if anyone has ever wondered, what if there actually was a 'terra australis', a large landmass stretching from the indian ocean to the pacific, and swallowing up australia, new zealand and parts of indonesia?

I guess it all depends on the terrain and climate of the continent so its a pretty mute question. But I think it would be interesting if indian-inspired civilizations emerged there, or maybe a strong native culture of its own which could form a barrier to european trade with china and japan in later centuries...

Short answer: World weather patterns would be massively changed, all of human history is different .

Longer answer: It really depends on what you're envisionaging, if the rest of the world is magically uneffected. If this land mass has similar problems to OTL australia (i.e. being unsuitable for crops until modern european fertilzer techniques turn up) then it will probably just have a larger community of hunter-gatherers with some austronesia fishermen round the edges.

 

[das]

Incidentally, weather-pattern-wise, what are we looking at exactly?

 

[bombshoo]

Well if there was the same amount of water in the Earth's oceans, wouldnt they all be a little bit higher? The Indian Ocean would also be a a very calm sea. Like the Med I assume.

 

[Cannae]

Another Idea

500 MYF, a new planet was discovered in an obscure area of the galaxy. These people who found this world thought much about this strange planet and thus sent several explorers to find out more about this place. I was found to contain lifeforms that were very primitive and even then it was quite barren in the forms of animal life. It did however have much forests and plant life within the area in which were thought of as bizarre. When, these explorers came back to their planet, along with the samples of everything else they had found when they went on their travels. The ruler of the governing planet decided that this planet wasn't of much strategic interest so, he made it a place in which he could dump his prisoners off to never return. But, what he didn't know about is that these people would be returning from their exodus back to the very planet everything started. Earth. Of course these people were removed of any memories of what life was like before and thus would have to start an new.

 

[Dachs]

Africa?

I seem to have ingested recreational drugs recently.

(and that's sensible, in a way, but not really likely)

Hooray for Kaiser Wilhelm II not dying until 19-bleeping-41.

After or instead of that, there is Latin America; if the Germans don't stop expanding they'll pretty much have to try and grab something there, informally ofcourse, and that will lead to tensions with Britain and USA;

Would the Cipriano Castro affair increase or decrease the kaiser's willingness to go into Latin America and start insidiously spreading influence? This is an honest and not rhetorical question; I have absolutely no insight as to the Wilhelmine German mindset.

The social tensions were more or less receding - riots and terrorism still occurred, but it was nothing compared to what went on before.

It wasn't? While I read about this about a year ago or so, I have a vague recollection of the Army needing to turn out thousands of times in the first seven months of 1914 to crush riots, strikes, and suchlike. Won't the lack of a banner to rally 'round in wartime be slightly detrimental to the existence of social peace in Russia? Granted, my opinion may be slightly colored by the fact that I was trying to ram "Serbia cannot beat Austria and Bulgaria together" down the communists in the Colosseum's collective throat.

- Some of the neutrals will probably be forced to take sides eventually;

Those neutrals, what's wrong with them? Sitting on the fence is too Thuringian; they should all be destroyed!

- So in general, what we are looking at here is a cold war without nukes that will go on until the interests of the sides involved clash way too much and everything blows up. I predict that the flashpoint will probably be in Latin America; Germans will be interested in getting in there, all other naval powers will want to stop that, and unless the Germans back down (and thus send their economy and politics into a major crisis) the spark will fall there and ignite the power-keg - only, it would be the power-keg of the entire world, not just Europe. A true world war;

The original "assignment", if you could call a World History pipe dream that, being to eliminate war entirely. Besides, I've sworn off world wars, because they're depressing and somewhat boring.

- Alternatively, ofcourse, the Germans could just back down like the Soviets did in the OTL Cold War. It wouldn't be nearly as a big a disaster as it was for the USSR... but it still will hurt a lot on many levels. After recovering from that, though, a major diplomatic restructuring in the world is likely. This may actually be the more interesting option.

"May"? Yeah, although I'm not sure if that would happen before 1940 or so. Then again...hell, I don't know, that's why I ask you people.

Ah-ha-ha-ha.

I don't understand the French mindset over that entire issue. The whole thing seems rather silly to me. Hell, Germany signed the Locarno Pact six years after they lost the thing, and they had the stronger historical and ethnic claim. France decided to keep *****ing about it for forty years until they got it back by sheer bloody-mindedness.

Yeah, I should just sort of swear off history.

Italians will get nothing (who cares about them when they aren't needed to open a new front, anyway?) and neither, in all the probability, will the Greeks.

Yeah, probably.

I think that the rump Ottoman Empire will just remain a German satellite, without any territorial concessions in Turkey Proper of all places.

Where's "Turkey Proper"? Last time I checked, Central Asia was under Russian control.

If I get the motivation, I'll post a Guess-the-PoD map eventually.

 

[das]

Would the Cipriano Castro affair increase or decrease the kaiser's willingness to go into Latin America and start insidiously spreading influence?

Well, ofcourse it made him have some second thoughts, but if Germany is to compete it will have to seize new markets and in the absence of a world war Latin America will eventually become the most viable direction.

It wasn't? While I read about this about a year ago or so, I have a vague recollection of the Army needing to turn out thousands of times in the first seven months of 1914 to crush riots, strikes, and suchlike. Won't the lack of a banner to rally 'round in wartime be slightly detrimental to the existence of social peace in Russia?

Only one occasion was really notable, though (at least from what I could immediately recall). It still was receding, although I suppose some reforms would have been required eventually. Although you are ofcourse right about the lack of warfare hurting social peace; still, in the long term things will be better than in OTL in that regard.

I don't understand the French mindset over that entire issue.

You see, France had many other reasons not to work with Germany; any reasonably close cooperation with Germany would've led to France becoming a lesser partner in all regards (economically, politically, etc). Lorraine-Alsace was just another issue that helped keep France an independent player, and most of the French politicians did want to keep it that way, so they most definitely weren't going to give up on it; not before they were clearly beaten in some way, anyway.

That and Lorraine-Alsace was strategically important.

Alternatively one might just chalk it up to national pride. Compare with Japanese claim on the Kurils that doesn't really keep Russia and Japan from cooperating in other matters. That said, I still doubt that the French would want to work with the Germans while they still have their own spheres of economic influence elsewhere.

Where's "Turkey Proper"? Last time I checked, Central Asia was under Russian control.

That's more like Turan Proper, or something. Turkey Proper is ofcourse Anatolia.

 

[Disenfrancised]

Incidentally, weather-pattern-wise, what are we looking at exactly?

Give me a super computer and I'll take a guess for you . But for just look at El Nino, a half a degree change on the pacific effects global weather, and this new super land mass will definately effect water flows to and from the pacific and thus its temperature.

That and Lorraine-Alsace was strategically important.

Alternatively one might just chalk it up to national pride. Compare with Japanese claim on the Kurils that doesn't really keep Russia and Japan from cooperating in other matters. That said, I still doubt that the French would want to work with the Germans while they still have their own spheres of economic influence elsewhere.

And unlike the Kurils, Alsace-Lorraine is economically important, being one of the richer and more industrialised areas in europe. Obviously the french wanted it, and wanted to dieny it to their rivals.

 

[Dachs]

not before they were clearly beaten in some way, anyway.

1871 doesn't count?

That and Lorraine-Alsace was strategically important.

So's Belgium.

Basically, the argument for intransigence over Alsace-Lorraine boils down to "because it's convenient"? Fun.

That's more like Turan Proper, or something. Turkey Proper is ofcourse Anatolia.

Quoted for blasphemy.

 

[das]

1871 doesn't count?

Ofcourse not.

So's Belgium.

Belgium is more trouble than it's worth. Much more difficult to seize, much more difficult to hold.

Basically, the argument for intransigence over Alsace-Lorraine boils down to "because it's convenient"? Fun.

Yes, it is.

Well, what else did you expect? The French deciding that they are okay with giving up all pretensions on the status of a great power after all those centuries? I know of no real reason why the French should suddenly decide to reconcile with the Germans as of the early 20th century.

 

[Dachs]

I know of no real reason why the French should suddenly decide to reconcile with the Germans as of the early 20th century.

Putting it that way makes it sound entirely different. Not quite sure how you get from one to the other, but okay, fine.

 

[das]

What I mean is, in an alternate timeline, it may be a good rule to not let any OTL tendencies suddenly stop or change radically without a logical reason that is somehow tied to the PoD. Sure, you could just use the butterfly effect if you like, but I have found, after having messed around with enough timelines, that logic - when you have enough information to work with and willingness to do so properly - can actually be quite fun, or at least lead to fun alternate timelines. It's more difficult than the alternative (no pun intended whatsoever), but also more rewarding.

As it is, France reconciling with Germany is wholly unnecessary and unexplained, so let's keep them bickering instead and work on the other tangents until that changes the situation enough.

 

[Disenfrancised]

Belgium is more trouble than it's worth. Much more difficult to seize, much more difficult to hold.

Plus mucking about in Belgium will annoy the British, dutch and the Germans, plus is larger and has would put up more of a fight. The French are intransigent, not that stupid.

 

[das]

That's what I meant under "more trouble than it's worth".

 

[Disenfrancised]

That's what I meant under "more trouble than it's worth".

I used the wrong quote, that comment was intended to go after Dach's "So's Belgium." . We agree on all points