Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Hrothbern, Mar 22, 2019.
I actually just came here to post this.
I apologise but I genuinely saw that first, then the rest of the sentence a second or so later.
Come on man. I am not that sick.
That is hilarious!
Link to video.
Well, that was short. Even the thumbnail is probably enough to give a good impression of the video.
That video was uploaded on youtube in 2014, which means before the brexit vote.
What I like about it is that it pictures well how Brits love more the idea about leaving the EU than their situation once really out. So they make the Brexit process as long as possible, to enjoy their moment, but no one really knows if it will ever be acomplished.
What would that Ann Widdecombe lady do of her life once the UK will really be out? It will suddenly become purposeless.
She can be in Dancing with the Stars (?) again.
She can then add ex-MEP to her CV highlights, along with ex-MP, homophobe and former reality show personality.
Labour has taken a more clear position on Brexit.
Not really a suprise in the sense that it is consistent with earlier statements of Corbyn, but what is new, is that this is a clear position together with all the big trade unions, including Unite.
All based on a number of "ifs".
is like playing chess
you have to look ahead in the main branches
In byzantine you also have to look back
I have been thinking some more about this, my conclusions are that:
1) Jeremy Corbyn is being swept. along against his better judgement, by Remain supporters.
2) Labour are worried not so much about Brexit nor about losing to the Conservatives, but terrified that
they will be replaced by the Liberal Democats and may come third or fourth rather than first or
second if there is a general election in the UK and it is that fear, not hope, that is driving their decision.
3) This decision may result in:
(a) an increase in Labour % poll against Liberal Democats.
(b) It will probably decrease Labour % poll against the Brexit Party
(c) It will likely make no difference to L:abour's position against the Conservatives.
4) I also believe that it provides no incentive for the Conservatives or
EU to try to close the gap on a deal that the UK Parliament might approve.
I have similar thoughts
I used that electoral calculus to make a sensitivity analysis on that Brexit Party-Labour-LibDems balance.
If Labour stays enough on the fence to secure no further loss of Leave Labour voters to Farage, you have "overall" the benefit that there are less voters to divide between Farage and the Tories, decreasing their chances to win together a majority. But with the current polls this seems to head for the bigger risk for a LibDem bigger than Labour. And that means that Labour will have A. to accept Remain in a coalition (after a referendum ?) and B.that it will get some but not that much back of its own "for the many" agenda.
If LibDems are the smaller party in that coalition, the LibDems have to be satisfied with a referendum in exchange for Corbyn's agenda.
I think also that this is the final acceptable argument for Leave Labour members to accept Corbyn moving on that fench, with the blessing of all the main trade unions to make it clear to those Leave Labour members.
I think that everything moves now to be in the best position for future elections, everything subordinate to that goal.
And that includes statements or actions with the EU on that deal.
I just hope that this will at least ruin the stupid party of the lib-dems.
Although I doubt it will mean a Corbyn pmship by now. Sadly his chances were systematically killed, despite much effort from the actual public.
The biggest risk I see for Labour is that Boris will get a "clean enough" Brexit before there are elections
(elections which he will need after a Brexit to have a good working majority + a new 5 year term to be well after the shock dip when the next elections take place).
Polls indicate that many people will vote on the Brexit party instead of the Tories because they do not really trust Boris to deliver a "clean enough" Brexit after elections.
=> having elections first will deliver a big blow for the amount of Tory seats
=> having a "clean enough" Brexit first, not attractive for many Remain Tories because they are against, will "save" the Tory party
It all depends on what can be sold to the people as a "clean enough" Brexit.
And perpetuate the two-party system? Nnno. I'd rather keep party lines open instead of '90s-style entryism.
A thesis: Brexiteers don't hate Brussels, they hate London.
The narrative underlying Brexit, underneath all the vague slogans about "sovereignty", was shifting the centre of public life away from London, or more specifically, a small and incentous set of London-based and London-centric institutions, the establishment, the "elite", in favour of a "real England" comprised of the provinces and provincial elites. The EU was a stand in for institutions which Brexiteers lack the ideological or political coherence to attack directly. The ultimate aspiration of Brexiteers has little to do with pan-European commercial or legal structures, still less with bendy bananas, and everything to do with a reorientation of public life within Britain from where it is to where they think it should be, and they are going to be very disappointed when none of that happens.
That's why Brexit was so much less appealing in Scotland, I think. We're already in the process of re-centering public life away from London, away from "the elite", and we've done so within the framework of a political coherent and ideologically coherent-ish nationalist project. The European Union was largely absent from this process, and when it appeared, did so in an at least apparently positive role, providing a basic if sparse for little countries dragging themselves out from the under the carcass of empire. The above narrative just doesn't work, up here.
Ask the catalans who that idea works out.
Separate names with a comma.